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The Swamp

  • #122,181
  • Apr 8, 2025 7:24pm Apr 8, 2025 7:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} With 2 weeks left to go this month. We may see oil slip. Russia is likely in trouble below 54.82 sustained for a year or more. The lower it goes, the faster the trouble for Russia. This week did close below 70.78. {image} {image}
Getting close to 54.82.. Ukraine should ramp up attacking oil storage, refineries, ports, and depots.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,182
  • Edited 11:00pm Apr 8, 2025 10:45pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
Anyone remember 2008? I did some research. United States: Market Volatility: The U.S. equity market has experienced significant declines, erasing over $6 trillion in value within two days. This sharp downturn has heightened recession fears and suggests underlying liquidity concerns. Barron's Banking Sector Strain: U.S. banks recorded their worst week since 2020, reflecting investor anxiety and potential liquidity challenges within...
Doing some homework. I dont want to cry wolf, but if this dont stop. We could have a 2008. Likey worse than 2008. With China, and our friends fucked over by Trump. Not buying treasures. That money is going somewhere. It may already be too late. Damage is done long-term.
As of April 8, 2025, both the stock and bond markets experienced significant declines:

  1. Stock Market: The S&P 500 dropped by 1.6%, closing at 4,982.77, marking its lowest close in nearly a year. AP News
  2. Bond Market: U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply following a weak $58 billion auction of 3-year notes, indicating a selloff in longer-term bonds like the 30-year Treasury. WSJ

This simultaneous decline suggests a loss of investor confidence in both markets, possibly due to concerns over escalating trade tensions and their potential economic impact.
Market Turmoil Amid Tariff Concerns
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...wsj.com&sz=256
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...wsj.com&sz=128
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d....wsj.com&sz=32WSJ
Treasury Yields Jump After Soft 3-Year Note Auction
Today
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...ews.com&sz=256
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...ews.com&sz=128
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...news.com&sz=32AP News
How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 4/8/2025
Today
https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/za...6eee8ea23a.jpg
https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?d...edia.com&sz=32Investopedia
Another Stock Rally Stalls, Casting Doubt on a Quick Rebound from the Trump Tariff Rout
Today

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,183
  • Apr 8, 2025 10:57pm Apr 8, 2025 10:57pm
tariffs in 3 min..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,184
  • Apr 8, 2025 11:41pm Apr 8, 2025 11:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the eu hasn't made a high above 986. The gbp finally broke its near high. The b/o I seek, most often happens before Wednesday's close. If not before the week closes 2939/4x tp may also be R-ish {image}
seems unlikely we can see 0802 by the close of today
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,185
  • Apr 9, 2025 2:19am Apr 9, 2025 2:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Well he is going against many Nobel prize winning economist. He is basing it on Peter Kent Navarro thesis. In six of his books about China, Navarro quotes a "Ron Vara", whom he describes as a China hawk and former Harvard PhD doctoral student in economics. The problem is there is no "Ron Vara". It's a bullshit name. Its sounds a lot like John Barron was conned too. The U.S. public and the world. It's like taking people taking the best antibiotics we have for TB. The strains of TB immune to everything else. And stopping them in the middle...
yields are up huge. If this situation persists Trump may lose.
He needs some deals fast. As in this week. Korea? Europe ? Japan? Anything
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,186
  • Apr 9, 2025 5:23am Apr 9, 2025 5:23am
Quoting johncen
{quote} seems unlikely we can see 0802 by the close of today
I was trading to long there. But not to short to it, if not under 986. I took the gbp long instead. Thinking the eu would stay under 986, it didnt. I have a clear target 1.2939 on the GU.
The first few weeks in this the usd outflow was there, and bond buying. That outflow may be stronger than than it appeared with the weaker bond sales.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,187
  • Edited 5:42am Apr 9, 2025 5:27am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yields are up huge. If this situation persists Trump may lose. He needs some deals fast. As in this week. Korea? Europe ? Japan? Anything
Deals make no sense. He is talking out both sides of his mouth. He wants tariffs to bring back industry. And at the same time he wants deals to drop the tariffs. So what one is it?
We got the 6 time bankrupt village idiot/con artist running the show. The guy who went bankrupt running a casino. The guy who bankrupt the USFL. And if congress dont step in, we can add the USA
I have owned business for many decades. Your only as good as your name. You dont fuck your friends.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,188
  • Apr 9, 2025 5:41am Apr 9, 2025 5:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Deals make no sense. He is talking out both sides of his mouth. He want tariffs to bring back industry. And at the same time he wants deals to drop the tariffs. So what one is it? We got the 6 time bankrupt village idiot/con artist running the show. The guy who went bankrupt running a casino. The guy who bankrupt the USFL. And if congress dont step in, we can add the USA I have owned business for many decades. Your only as good as your name. You dont fuck your friends.
Watch the tweets start coming from X. They have already started from the brother. Musk called Peter N as dumb as a sack of bricks. What's that say about the guy who hired the dumb guy, as dumb as a sack of bricks? Musk has lost more money than anyone one in the world. Peter may be on his way out. Then what will they say about tariffs?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,189
  • Edited 8:07am Apr 9, 2025 7:53am | Edited 8:07am
The eg is teetering on b/o or rejection.
Its bullish as hell... This is a big "IF". If its rejected, the pull to 8490 may pull it by Friday. The normal adr is only 53 pips. 84.90 is 160ish pips. It's unlikely to get there. But its at R, and 8490 can be a magnet
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,190
  • Apr 9, 2025 8:14am Apr 9, 2025 8:14am
Swap spreads are tightening. The talk about liquidity is getting louder. There is talk on cnbc now about the Fed and liquidity.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,191
  • Apr 9, 2025 8:43am Apr 9, 2025 8:43am
Quoting gatorinla
The eg is teetering on b/o or rejection. Its bullish as hell... This is a big "IF". If its rejected, the pull to 8490 may pull it by Friday. The normal adr is only 53 pips. 84.90 is 160ish pips. It's unlikely to get there. But its at R, and 8490 can be a magnet {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,192
  • Apr 9, 2025 8:46am Apr 9, 2025 8:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image}
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15 m engulfed
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,193
  • Apr 9, 2025 9:07am Apr 9, 2025 9:07am
time for some sun
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,194
  • Apr 9, 2025 12:37pm Apr 9, 2025 12:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
The eg is teetering on b/o or rejection. Its bullish as hell... This is a big "IF". If its rejected, the pull to 8490 may pull it by Friday. The normal adr is only 53 pips. 84.90 is 160ish pips. It's unlikely to get there. But its at R, and 8490 can be a magnet {image}
It has fallen 79 pips since.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,195
  • Apr 9, 2025 12:42pm Apr 9, 2025 12:42pm
Dragon 340 pips one H candle! BE COOL
  • #122,196
  • Apr 9, 2025 1:21pm Apr 9, 2025 1:21pm
The million dollar question for me. Can the gu get to 1.2939, and the Eg get to .8490 before Friday
Would that put eu near 802?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,197
  • Apr 9, 2025 1:33pm Apr 9, 2025 1:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It has fallen 79 pips since. {image}
120
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,198
  • Apr 9, 2025 1:53pm Apr 9, 2025 1:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Getting close to 54.82.. Ukraine should ramp up attacking oil storage, refineries, ports, and depots. {image}

Oil up, Russia getting stronger.

Any advice for Ukraine?
  • #122,199
  • Apr 9, 2025 2:13pm Apr 9, 2025 2:13pm
Quoting xtradex
{quote} Oil up, Russia getting stronger. Any advice for Ukraine?
That's one way to see it. Another way is the normal bounce to 61.058. Now hold above it if you can. If not, a near retest of lows looks to come
But stronger? Really?? The price is down and they are pumping less. At the same time the military budget is draining the coffers. Is that strong? or on the edge of collapse?
You do realize if DT puts the world in a recession that's less oil demand. And the price drops further
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,200
  • Apr 9, 2025 2:46pm Apr 9, 2025 2:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} With 2 weeks left to go this month. We may see oil slip. Russia is likely in trouble below 54.82 sustained for a year or more. The lower it goes, the faster the trouble for Russia. This week did close below 70.78. {image} {image}
Close to the edge of the abyss today. Liquidity was near dry. The Fed must have sent a warning the POTUS about tariffs. The Bond market bids were slowed
We got lucky
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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