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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #441
  • Aug 1, 2007 4:00am Aug 1, 2007 4:00am
Stopped out at 1.3669 after entering yesterday at 1.3700 (-31 loss). Should have entered sooner at 1.3650 like Jacko did)

Will follow Anti hedging now-> waiting to reenter at 1.3650 (or better)

R.
  • #442
  • Aug 1, 2007 4:44am Aug 1, 2007 4:44am
Quoting rancliff
Stopped out at 1.3669 after entering yesterday at 1.3700 (-31 loss). Should have entered sooner at 1.3650 like Jacko did)

Will follow Anti hedging now-> waiting to reenter at 1.3650 (or better)

R.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.

AH as I understand it works like this: if your stop was 1.3669 then 1.3619 must trade(price must move 50 pips past it iirc), THEN you place a long at 1.3669 again, assuming that the uptrend has resumed when it comes back and picks you up again. That way you're back in where you left off and don't really "lose" anything as the way back makes back your loss size as well. This is assuming it is still intact and that it will move on.

Again, correct me if I'm wrong. That's how I read it.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #443
  • Aug 1, 2007 4:58am Aug 1, 2007 4:58am
Quoting SeekingLight
Please correct me if I'm wrong.

AH as I understand it works like this: if your stop was 1.3669 then 1.3619 must trade(price must move 50 pips past it iirc), THEN you place a long at 1.3669 again, assuming that the uptrend has resumed when it comes back and picks you up again. That way you're back in where you left off and don't really "lose" anything as the way back makes back your loss size as well. This is assuming it is still intact and that it will move on.

Again, correct me if I'm wrong. That's how I read it.
Exactly as you describe
Regards
  • #444
  • Aug 1, 2007 7:52am Aug 1, 2007 7:52am
Quoting SeekingLight
Please correct me if I'm wrong.

AH as I understand it works like this: if your stop was 1.3669 then 1.3619 must trade(price must move 50 pips past it iirc), THEN you place a long at 1.3669 again, assuming that the uptrend has resumed when it comes back and picks you up again. That way you're back in where you left off and don't really "lose" anything as the way back makes back your loss size as well. This is assuming it is still intact and that it will move on.

Again, correct me if I'm wrong. That's how I read it.
Hi SeekingLight,
you are correct. My mistake was calculating with the original stop I placed (at 1.3650) instead of the actual stop I got stopped out after it was automatically trailed (which was 1.3669).

Looks like price now is going up again before it even reatraced to 1.3619....
If this continues and reaches 1.3700 I will have the dilema if to enter at 1.3700 (and then just accept the previous loss) or still wait that maybe it will still fo down and enter at 1.3619

R.
  • #445
  • Aug 1, 2007 7:52am Aug 1, 2007 7:52am
And what happens if eur goes back up pat your stop point before trading 13619 as it did 10 min ago. you stay on the sidelines??
  • #446
  • Aug 1, 2007 8:06am Aug 1, 2007 8:06am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Dopey,
Your table looks great, but I can't figure out how it is supposed to be interpreted.
What are 1T, 2T, 3M and 4* ?
Also why are you only taking the 382 and 618 - Jacko uses 50% (exclusively so far as I am aware) so shouldn't that be included?

Did you also note Jacko's unorthodox take on the low from which he based his forecast?

Thanks,
Ian
I'll make this one post and then that's it, I don't want to clutter up Jacko's thread.

Joe DiNapoli has probably done the best work in Fibs from what I've seen over the years. Bear in mind that 50% is not a fib, but everyone watches it, so everyone uses it. The 38 and 62% retracements are Fibs.

What DiNapoli has found is that when you have a prolonged move, you'll have a number of pivot points in the move. If you then draw fibs from the highest high or lowest low, depending on the direction of the move, and from every pivot, you'll get a series of Fibs. For example, on the Daily Eur chart the high is 1.3852. You then move backwards and look at the pivot lows (in this case a pivot needs two candles to either side that are either higher or lower, hence a clearly seen pivot) and draw a fib from each low up to the high of 1.3852. On the Excel sheet, on the left side in black, you'll see 1.3852 for every fib. The number in blue, next to the Reaction number is the low of that particular pivot. Each Reaction has a letter next to the number which describes the strength of that particular move.

Once the numbers are entered, I chose the pip variable, which in this case is 50 pips. The program then shows the confluence areas where a 38 from one fib and a 62 from another fib are within 50 pips of each other. DiNapoli has shown, and I have been using his stuff for over 5 years now and attest to it's efficacy, that these are high probability spots for the fibs to hold support/resistance. A single fib alone may or may not work, but when you start seeing a clustering of fibs, then the odds start rising. It's really that simple.

Bear in mind that Fibs are more self-fufilling prophecy than anything else, and they aren't an exact science. For every time price bounces off a fib within a few pips, it'll miss it by 20 the next time. It's the ballpark we're looking for, which is what Jacko does by using his buffers of 30-50 pips.

Fib confluence works, but like anything else, you have to study it. DiNapoli's book is about 17 pips and it's the best thing out there for Fibs, and I've looked at just about everything. I got into fibs right off the bat and have never stopped using them. He sells a program called FibNodes for about 15 pips, I think. Once I read his book, I made my own with Excel. I ended buying his program, but I never use it as I like the Excel one better. I'll share the Excel sheet but only to those who read DiNapoli's book, because it's useless otherwise.
  • #447
  • Aug 2, 2007 2:43am Aug 2, 2007 2:43am
Please try to stay on topic and use PMs for those sort of requests.

Iso, please clean up next time you're around, take this post out along with it =)


Putting in DiNapoli fib excursions is pretty much the opposite of Jacko's simplicity imho.

My only personal worry is that Jacko just has too much "eye for the market" and gut feeling helping him along as well and that's just not replicateable by any fib or explainable ruleset. I think that's where the temptation to mix with other stuff again comes in.


@mbalta:
not sure how you mean, but it might be because I'm only still waking up, sorry..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #448
  • Aug 2, 2007 3:31am Aug 2, 2007 3:31am
What I mean is ,after you get stopped ,what happens if the price turns back up and you are out of the position. How do you get back into the position?

to give an example :

you bought euro @13650 on 27.07 ,then it had a high of 13728 on 31.07 and now your stop is 13678 right?

yesterday on 01.08 you were stopped @13678 and it contiued down to a low of 13637.(here you were waiting for it to reach 13628 to put your buy stop order at 13678)
But it did not reach there and turned back up and went above 13700.

So now you are out of the position and price is above 13700.

What do you do?
  • #449
  • Aug 2, 2007 4:28am Aug 2, 2007 4:28am
Quoting mbalta01
What do you do?
I'd frown


Yepp, this is exactly the scenario I wondered about myself before. I have no idea how Jacko handles this. I would have thought I asked this before myself, but I'm actually not sure whether I did.

There's always the option of waiting for that next pullback in a few days, weeks, months..


I really don't know, I'm not Jacko. He's the one who can answer your question


I maybe should point out I don't trade this approach at all. I just follow it closely because I believe Jacko is a genuinely nice guy and has a lot of sensible advice about how to approach trading and the market in general. I just find it very interesting.


Sorry that I can't be of any more help.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #450
  • Edited 5:02am Aug 2, 2007 4:43am | Edited 5:02am
mbalta01 I would say the safest approach would be to wait for a pullback. A look at the daily eur/usd chart and to me it looks like on average every 5 - 7 days there was some kind of pullback which would allow you to re-enter in the direction of the uptrend if you wanted to try and get back in. True one of the pullbacks dropped quite a bit but on the average I don't think you would need to wait a month every time if you happened to miss the boat.
  • #451
  • Aug 2, 2007 6:00am Aug 2, 2007 6:00am
Seekinglight

Thank you very much for your effort. And you are right, Jacko is the one who can answer this question. It is obvious that Jacko had put together a very simple and solid system as long as you are right about the trend. But there are some details I am confused about. One of them is the question I asked on that #734 post. I tried to read Jacko's every post and I believe he has not been asked about this before.

I hope Jacko will see this post and let us know what he does in this kind of situation.



And Creztor, that is certainly one of the possibilities.
  • #452
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:09am Aug 2, 2007 7:09am
Quoting mbalta01
Seekinglight

Thank you very much for your effort. And you are right, Jacko is the one who can answer this question. It is obvious that Jacko had put together a very simple and solid system as long as you are right about the trend. But there are some details I am confused about. One of them is the question I asked on that #734 post. I tried to read Jacko's every post and I believe he has not been asked about this before.
I hope Jacko will see this post and let us know what he does in this kind of situation.
And Creztor, that is certainly one of the possibilities.
Re-read post #6 and take this statement on-board:
Quote
But I am also starting to notice that it doesn't really matter anymore where I buy or sell.
The anti-hedging strategy is FAR, FAR, FAR more important.
  • #453
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:48am Aug 2, 2007 7:48am
speaking of 50% retracement, how do we determine from which peak ?

also, while eur/usd is chosen for it's long-term trend, how about eur/chf since it seems less volatile ?
  • #454
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:49am Aug 2, 2007 7:49am
Peter thank you for your reply but I think you misunderstood me. There is no question about how much importance Jacko gives to AH. If you read the post #734 again you will see it is about the implementation of AH under certain conditions which is not explained by Jacko yet as far as I can see.

It seems I have to wait for Jacko on this. Or maybe Newbietrader101 can also help...
  • #455
  • Aug 2, 2007 7:58am Aug 2, 2007 7:58am
Quoting mbalta01
Peter thank you for your reply but I think you misunderstood me. There is no question about how much importance Jacko gives to AH. If you read the post #734 again you will see it is about the implementation of AH under certain conditions which is not explained by Jacko yet as far as I can see.

It seems I have to wait for Jacko on this. Or maybe Newbietrader101 can also help...
I've just re-read my reply and it comes across as very patronising, so I apologise.
I took that post to mean that if he considered a pull-back to have run out of steam he would re-enter, and stick his normal 50 SL on the trade. From then on it would either maintain the upward trend, or if it hit the SL he'd re-apply his AH rules again.
As he stated the AH rules appeared more important than the actual point of entry for a trade.
OK we'll wait
  • #456
  • Aug 2, 2007 10:27am Aug 2, 2007 10:27am
Quoting mbalta01
What I mean is ,after you get stopped ,what happens if the price turns back up and you are out of the position. How do you get back into the position?

to give an example :

you bought euro @13650 on 27.07 ,then it had a high of 13728 on 31.07 and now your stop is 13678 right?

yesterday on 01.08 you were stopped @13678 and it contiued down to a low of 13637.(here you were waiting for it to reach 13628 to put your buy stop order at 13678)
But it did not reach there and turned back up and went above 13700.

So now you are out of the position and price is above 13700.

What do you do?
Hi mbalta01,

I bought euro at 1.3650.
It had a high of 1.3728
Trailing SL is 1.1.3678
1.3678 was 28 pips profit. END OF TRADE. No A-H applicable.

That was fun....lets do it again.

Re-enter at 1.3650
It had a high at 1.3708
Trailing SL is 1.3658
1.3658 was 8 pips profit.

Waiting to get hit again at 1.3650.

However, I am getting wary of this market. There is about to be a sharp and significant break in one direction very soon......

I just am not sure what direction



.
  • #457
  • Aug 2, 2007 10:33am Aug 2, 2007 10:33am
Hi cici,


Quoting cici
Jacko,

I've just finished reading every post in this thread. (Unlike some lazy newbies) before I earned the right to ask questions. (Thank you, it is appreciated ). I have two questions please:

(1) When you say to apply the AH Strategy to ALL trades, do you mean all trades regardless of whether stopped out for a loss or a profit; or do you mean only those stopped out for a loss? Only those stopped out for a loss.

(2) In the chart below, I have Buy Stop orders in place for the levels shown by the yellow lines. I will apply AH Strategy to trades stopped out for a loss (and also winning trades depending on your answer to question one). You have too many orders for me, but if that is how YOU want to allocate/spread your investment, then that is fine.

Is having these Buy Stop orders already in place the right way to do this? I mean is it okay to buy every 50 pips at 00 and 50 numbers, or should I only buy at 00 numbers? See above

I want to trade this exactly as you do, so let me give you a PROFUSE thank you in advance of any answers you wish to provide.

cici
  • #458
  • Aug 2, 2007 10:37am Aug 2, 2007 10:37am
Quoting SeekingLight
Please correct me if I'm wrong.

AH as I understand it works like this: if your stop was 1.3669 then 1.3619 must trade(price must move 50 pips past it iirc), THEN you place a long at 1.3669 again, assuming that the uptrend has resumed when it comes back and picks you up again. That way you're back in where you left off and don't really "lose" anything as the way back makes back your loss size as well. This is assuming it is still intact and that it will move on.

Again, correct me if I'm wrong. That's how I read it.
Hi SeekingLight,

You are correct.


.
  • #459
  • Aug 2, 2007 10:49am Aug 2, 2007 10:49am
Quoting SeekingLight
Please try to stay on topic and use PMs for those sort of requests.

Iso, please clean up next time you're around, take this post out along with it =)


Putting in DiNapoli fib excursions is pretty much the opposite of Jacko's simplicity imho.

.............

..
Hi SeekingLight,

Thanks for that.

I was actually thinking about posting another "live-time" trading journal, similar to the one that I started at DailyFX. Newbie has been on at me to do it for ages. Then I saw Auslanco's thread and was stunned at how many newbies jumped in and exploded that thread.

No way do I ever want to spend that much time answering all those (often mindless) questions. I am sooo glad I saw that. No way would I start a thread like that. The only way I would ever consider a journal would be to have a locked thread, where I just post my trades.


.
  • #460
  • Aug 2, 2007 10:52am Aug 2, 2007 10:52am
Hey Jacko

i really like ur anti hedge strategy top dollar :-) do u use the anti hedge on big timeframes for example on weekly charts but with more room for the anti hedge ( stop and rewerse) ? for example to ur buy and hold positions. This anti hedge has helped me alot so if u ever comes to denmark ill give u a beer or soda lol...


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