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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #301
  • Edited 7:55pm Apr 4, 2025 11:58am | Edited 7:55pm
Here's a quick stats recap. Avoiding trades before the London Open, stay within RR 1 (1/3 aDtr in pips), and consider move SL to BE after some gain, as the system suggests, might lead to a better results—potentially hitting a 67% Win Rate. Over 14 calendar days, 10 active trading days. That’s the full picture. Without basic stats, we’d have no way to evaluate or measure progress, and always remember that the real gain is in percentage terms, not in pips or just how many dollars, therefore, the results of a system may be reproducible with more capital.

Post #172 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15190118
Post #175 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15190254
Post #5 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15202331
Post #206 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15195924
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #302
  • Edited 6:16am Apr 5, 2025 5:43am | Edited 6:16am
Quote
Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

Quote
Don't tell me what you think, tell me what's in your FF Trade Explorer Stats, your FX Blue Stats, or your MyFxbook Stats.

― Anonopoulos

Quote
In a non-random world—the world of Medicine Oncology—a person with a tumor should first be suspected of having a malignant tumor (cancer) before it is proven to be benign. In a highly random world—the world of Finance Trading—a person should first be suspected of being unprofitable or only slightly profitable before they are proven to be highly profitable.

― Anonopoulos
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #303
  • Edited 10:56am Apr 5, 2025 6:56am | Edited 10:56am
You can earn money with a monthly probability of 67%, but only a 54% daily probability. However, suppose you find a way to increase the daily probability from 54% to a maximum of 67%. That is a good meditation.

Post #11 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15105884
Post #29 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15127720
Post #38 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15135302
Post #301 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15205796

Evaluation of the honest meditation (or reflective analysis) results is as follows:
1. What percentage (%) of risk is allocated to a single position?
2. What is the maximum percentage (%) of risk allowed for all positions opened in a single day (of any sequence)?

The Kelly Criterion suggests that for Forex trading, the optimal risk per position is approximately 3% (equivalent to a 10:1 leverage). However, the Kelly Criterion does not specify a maximum daily risk limit for all positions combined. As previously explained here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post15069355 the Kelly Formula here is SR/σ, where SR is the Sharpe Ratio and σ is the standard deviation of the market's daily movement. Using SR = 0.1 and a daily σ for Forex (Fx) of 1% would yield 10x (10:1 leverage) or about 3%.

Lel
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #304
  • Apr 5, 2025 11:56am Apr 5, 2025 11:56am
The Merge: Episode 03 | Nassim Taleb | The architecture of the world we inhabit.
Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architect

Inserted Video
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  • #305
  • Edited 7:21pm Apr 5, 2025 6:59pm | Edited 7:21pm
Just casually revisiting on lot size trading for XAU/USD

1. Standard (100k) Lot: 1 pips is $1000, minimum lot size seems 0.01
50 pips SL, 1 unit 30% is 0.3 Lot
30 pips SL, 1 unit 30% is 0.5 Lot

2. Mini (10k) Lot: 1 pips is $100
50 pips SL, 1 unit 30% is 3 Lot
30 pips SL, 1 unit 30% is 5 Lot

3. Micro (1k) Lot: 1 pips is $10
50 pips SL, 1 unit 30% is 30 Lot
30 pips SL, 1 unit 30% is 50 Lot

Even using leverage up to 1:30 is actually fine — leverage isn't really the issue for a trader for large account (>=25k). But if you open 5 lots on a standard account, it won't be long before a Margin Call comes knocking — it means 30 pips with 5 lots is a -300% bet. Offside! Pip Value (in Percentage) is not Margin! In fact, many forex affiliate websites out there miscalculate. Since 2009 and now it's 2025, not many understand this except for the old seniors who keep teaching it repeatedly, like Hanover. Trader owh trader. Unless you're already skilled at calculations and have a super jumbo account, then maybe it’s okay.

Lel
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #306
  • Edited Apr 6, 2025 10:56am Apr 5, 2025 9:21pm | Edited Apr 6, 2025 10:56am
Make a slight color adjustment to help remember that Range 2 refers to the time/trading session after the London Open, 10 hours into the new day. Discipline and Patience. It seems nice—more colorful. Lol
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fooled by randomness in art
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  • #307
  • Apr 6, 2025 10:43am Apr 6, 2025 10:43am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Revisiting Gaming Prop Firms Looking back at the challenge data from so many gaming prop firms out there, thanks to Prop Firm Match, the available data is now easy to sort. Currently, the two cheapest challenges for a 25k account, 1-step, static drawdown, and offering MT4 or MT5 platforms are from Blueberry Funded and Instant Funding, still under $150—others are quite expensive. Then, looking again at the challenge rules to see which are simpler, Blueberry Funded and Instant Funding seem much simpler compared to Funding Pips, Finotive Funding (which...
There have been no significant changes to the propfirmmatch filter for the Challenge 1 Step, 25k, Static, Profit Split min 80%, and it continues to offer MT5/MT4. Blueberry’s review rating has dropped by 0.1 point from 4, and there was a serious complaint, so they should improve. FundedNext has a 4.5 rating, but in the past day, I submitted a review giving them a score of 2, and propfirmmatch rejected it—even though I provided complete evidence: documents, chat logs, and emails. It’s hard to find a fair judge. Lol
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  • #308
  • Apr 6, 2025 11:59am Apr 6, 2025 11:59am
Probability, Risk, and Extremes

Quote
The new focus is on how to detect and measure convexity and concavity. This is much, much simpler than probability.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Probability, Risk, and Extremes.pdf   508 KB | 194 downloads
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  • #309
  • Apr 6, 2025 3:24pm Apr 6, 2025 3:24pm
The first one and half hours after the market opened today had insane volatility; many aDtr pairs were easily breached, meaning they turned Red (Extreme).
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  • #310
  • Apr 6, 2025 4:18pm Apr 6, 2025 4:18pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. #BedofProcrustes, 3rd Ed. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb - I said: It takes "seven" years to learn how to make money; and "twenty-one" to learn how to not lose it.
Imagine, a professional like me can earn money from a salary by being a corporate slave after 7 years (many years) of studying and working. Nassim also after many years of studying and working.

Then imagine Buffett reached a leap to 1M $ after 19 years of investing (in the trading world). Nassim, a leap to Millions $ after the Market Crash in 1987, needed many years as Options trader (in the trading world).

I, since 2007 when I first learned about Forex until now, still consider this (Fx) field a hobby that earns a little money, and also spends a little money (in the trading world). That's all. Lel
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  • #311
  • Apr 6, 2025 4:52pm Apr 6, 2025 4:52pm
London Session begin in 7 hours 10 minutes (KZ indi shifting +15 minutes). EUR/USD is flying 121 pips (1/3 aDtr today 32 pips, 3.8x)
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  • #312
  • Edited 9:50pm Apr 6, 2025 7:32pm | Edited 9:50pm
Many stock markets around the world crashed today, triggering circuit breakers that halted trading. It’s been going on for three days now, hasn’t it? The big boys are dumping everything at high speed.
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  • #313
  • Edited 9:04pm Apr 6, 2025 8:29pm | Edited 9:04pm
Giant Tortoises Vs Cheetahs

Giant Tortoises
Global Population: 120,000+ (Aldabra + Galápagos)
Lifespan: 100–200+ years
Maximum Speed: 0.2 mph (0.3 km/h)
Major Threats: Historical hunting, invasive species
Conservation Success: Significant recovery (e.g., Española Island)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cheetahs
Global Population: 6,500+
Lifespan: 8–12 years in the wild
Maximum Speed: 70 mph (112 km/h)
Major Threats: Habitat loss, genetic bottlenecks, poaching
Conservation Success: Limited recovery; declining in most regions

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A wise person said, 'Slow and steady wins the race.' I've never liked this wise saying. However, it seems that on land, it might indeed be true (except when involving extinct animals like land dinosaurs—there's insufficient and incomplete data).

LOL
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  • #314
  • Apr 6, 2025 10:23pm Apr 6, 2025 10:23pm
USD/CAD
Range 2 Open. 1/3 aDtr Today 36 pips. 1 unit SL or TP 0.5% with latest Equity would be 0.52 lots.
Now wait for London open (Lo).
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fooled by randomness in art
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  • #315
  • Apr 7, 2025 12:28am Apr 7, 2025 12:28am
Quoting RoelsMajor
USD/CAD Range 2 Open. 1/3 aDtr Today 36 pips. 1 unit SL or TP 0.5% with latest Equity would be 0.52 lots. Now wait for London open (Lo). {image}
It's a bit tricky to watch USD/CAD after the London Open, but given that the EU and GU tend to strengthen during their sessions, it's better to wait for a few more candles.
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  • #316
  • Edited 3:42am Apr 7, 2025 3:18am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} It's a bit tricky to watch USD/CAD after the London Open, but given that the EU and GU tend to strengthen during their sessions, it's better to wait for a few more candles. {image}
Trying to get 36 pips, 0.5% on a USD/CAD long today, but it was already begging for mercy after all kinds of tricks. Even though EU and GU had dropped significantly. Lol . SL to BE.

And hit BE.
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fooled by randomness in art
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  • #317
  • Apr 7, 2025 5:22am Apr 7, 2025 5:22am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Trying to get 36 pips, 0.5% on a USD/CAD long today, but it was already begging for mercy after all kinds of tricks. Even though EU and GU had dropped significantly. Lol . SL to BE. And hit BE. {image} {image}
Second Entry USD/CAD. Goooootcha! My precious 0.5%, 36 pips. Lol Wohooho
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  • #318
  • Apr 8, 2025 6:20am Apr 8, 2025 6:20am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Long NZD/JPY
1 unit 0.5%, 43 pips
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  • #319
  • Apr 8, 2025 7:42am Apr 8, 2025 7:42am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Long NZD/JPY 1 unit 0.5%, 43 pips {image} {image} {image}
Hit BE
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  • #320
  • Apr 8, 2025 11:22am Apr 8, 2025 11:22am
Good info from propfirmmatch:
Static 1-Step Challenges
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