Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

Quote

Disliked

It was a lesson Taleb would never forget. He felt vindicated. His strategy of wagering on rare events, derided by other traders who racked up gains day after day, had worked like a miracle. At the time, it wasn’t so much the result that mattered as the revelation that the methods and models those traders used were deeply flawed. It was mostly gut instinct and Taleb’s deeply ingrained contrarian nature. But his experience planted the idea. If all these guys are so smart, why’d they blow up? And why didn’t I?

Quote

Disliked

The fact that Mark Spitznagel and Nassim may have opinions does not change the strategy by ONE single bit.

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

ADR, AWR & ATR {quote} {quote} ADR or AWR is calculated over specific periods, such as ADR for 7 trading days, 14 trading days, and 21 trading days, while AWR can be calculated for 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and 36 weeks, based on trading days. {image}

Ignored

Quote

Disliked

In a public debate, it is the one whose intelligence is closest to that of the audience who wins*.
*In other words: usually (in politics or academic psychology), the most stupid; in rare cases (say, in mathematics, physics, cooking/bartending schools), the most intelligent.

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

{quote} aDtr average Days true range You won't be able to capture the full range easily every day; it's very difficult and rare. Therefore, capturing 1/3 or at most 2/3 is enough. Note: Thank you, Iuisinho https://www.forexfactory.com/luisinho, for the aDtr term and for the simplest great indicator. {image}

Ignored

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

(Especially) For FX Prop: We have previously learned about the Kelly formula for optimal lot size; https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15095884 {quote}{quote} No one thinks that 3% per day or about 10:1 is an optimal size, but let's say 1% per day or 3.33:1 is still acceptable to many traders. Yet, that's just how it is. Now, let's move on to the payout cycle if it can be achieved. In one month, there are typically 20 to 23 trading days, but the 23rd day is usually a holiday, so there are likely only 20 to 22 trading...

Ignored

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

{quote} Has it been tested successfully before? There were one or two successful attempts, of course on a demo account (since this is also for the purpose of a demo game, or prop game). A result of 8.1% was achieved in 11-12 trading days, with 48 trades and a risk per trade of 1%. The maximum risk was 3%, following the recommended optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion. Previously, there was also a successful attempt months ago, achieving 9% in just 7-8 trading days, risk 1% a trade, max 2% a day, although with more specific criteria. Both attempts had an average drawdown of only -3%. If the optimal risk is reduced below that level, the average monthly result ranges between -3% to 5% only. {image} {image} {image} {image}

Ignored

Quote

Disliked

There is no significant statistical association between IQ and hard measures such as wealth.

Quote

Disliked

It is at the bottom an immoral measure that, while not working, can put people (and, worse, groups) in boxes for the rest of their lives.

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

{quote} Here is an example of the trading performance of SYO @SERSANSISTEMAS in 10 Years span, even after being adjusted by the risk engine: https://www.darwinex.com/invest/SYO Average of compounding performance: 229.19 % / 89 months = 2.58% a month More than 99% is average, but only 1% might be the peak of performance (some say skill, or some say consistency and gifted, or both). That’s how the real world works (in random environment: example world of financial trading markets). So: How much % did you make this month? Red ...

Ignored

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

X Quotes of the day "No, I don't want to 'learn fast', in any subject. I don't want shortcuts. If I don't enjoy the subject, I don't want to learn it; and if I enjoy it, I want to prolong the pleasure. I avoid what exam-takers do: I trade speed for depth." Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Ignored

Quoting RoelsMajor

Disliked

BAR after BAR, CANDLE after CANDLE... Nassim Taleb often argues that what we perceive as patterns in price charts—for example, bar after bar—is frequently nothing more than an illusion stemming from humanity’s tendency to seek order in chaos. In his view, price movements in financial markets are heavily influenced by random factors and rare events (grey swans, black swans), so each bar does not have a reliable cause-and-effect relationship with the preceding one. In other words, each bar can be regarded as an independent event that cannot be consistently...

Ignored

Quoting driven18

Disliked

{quote} Totally Agree. Here are my views on this subject. What you see below took years to understand/comprehend and triumph over. Importance of Entry = 10% Importance of Money Management = 40% Importance of controlling MindFuck(Fear and Greed) = 50% I know you have studied Nassim Nicholas Taleb and looking at trading on the more spiritual level. Can you comment on my believes and my assign percentages?

Ignored