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The Swamp

  • #121,841
  • Mar 24, 2025 8:53am Mar 24, 2025 8:53am
Quoting gatorinla
news in less than 10 {image}
Flash Services PMI nice
Sub 800.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,842
  • Mar 24, 2025 8:56am Mar 24, 2025 8:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If I get 15 min close under 824 I think it will test 808/06. Possibly 0791/92. My 4h sits at 792, but it closes this hour.
It has to break this 4h 792.. 792 may reject it some
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,843
  • Mar 24, 2025 9:01am Mar 24, 2025 9:01am
If I'm right it will break 1.0792 and have large red candles in the pursuit of under 1.0410 this month. YPP about 635 and Qpp 610 are in the way
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,844
  • Mar 24, 2025 9:09am Mar 24, 2025 9:09am
Quoting LoneTrader1
Possible retracement to 1.0847
Retracement to 1.0822 high chance, 1.0847 50/50
  • #121,845
  • Mar 24, 2025 9:12am Mar 24, 2025 9:12am
Lets see what happens.
Staying below 806 with closes puts pressure on 792 and 791. Both have their reasons. If/when 792/91 gives up. 740 area should come to be tested
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,846
  • Mar 24, 2025 9:32am Mar 24, 2025 9:32am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Retracement to 1.0822 high chance, 1.0847 50/50
Quick scalp
Don't have a good entry for short as of yet. Still looking...
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  • #121,847
  • Mar 24, 2025 9:55am Mar 24, 2025 9:55am
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see what happens. Staying below 806 with closes puts pressure on 792 and 791. Both have their reasons. If/when 792/91 gives up. 740 area should come to be tested {image}
6h dynamic support at 748. London close is coming. Usually not a good time for fireworks after the close. Being so close to the end of the quarter, shit can happen.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,848
  • Mar 24, 2025 10:05am Mar 24, 2025 10:05am
Quoting LoneTrader1
EA {image}
Daily Tf
EA back below trendline and still acting as resistance. Target 1.67 level probably
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  • #121,849
  • Mar 24, 2025 10:05am Mar 24, 2025 10:05am
Quoting gatorinla
Based on a ten year study (This dont mean it will happen this time). Early week if pa hits 1.0806. Followed by a move away. I'm not giving a bullish outlook, but it can rise. But it favors the run toward 410 398 directional. If it did fall. 72% for first 100 pips. Within the first 2 days. I have 2 numbers 410 and 398. When this happens they have more pull power. The reasonable range is 300 to 0 pips toward 1.0410/398. Upon a gap down below 1.0806, without a major retrace back above 1.0806. It significantly increases chance of a run closer to 1.0410...
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The line pa is sitting on is not Fridays. PA has redrawn it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,850
  • Mar 24, 2025 10:31am Mar 24, 2025 10:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image} The line pa is sitting on is not Fridays. PA has redrawn it.
I believe we’re heading lower. It’s normal to see some buyers and bulls step in after such a strong move up.
But other indicators still look good to me. I have no objections.
I’ll take some more profit around 770 and wait to see if it bounces.
I still have some support around 730 and 700.

It doesn’t look bad, even if we’d all love to see it drop 100 pips in 10 minutes.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,851
  • Edited 11:22am Mar 24, 2025 11:10am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I believe we’re heading lower. It’s normal to see some buyers and bulls step in after such a strong move up. But other indicators still look good to me. I have no objections. I’ll take some more profit around 770 and wait to see if it bounces. I still have some support around 730 and 700. It doesn’t look bad, even if we’d all love to see it drop 100 pips in 10 minutes.
I got my same thesis from 2009 as energy U.S. production increased % wise. The value of the eur would decline verse usd, as they have to buy energy. It takes time. But now more than ever. With all the sanctions on rouge oil countries. It will force a even higher percent of purchases from the U.S. to Europe. Granted if the senile Grandpa dont start a war with Europe. That puts a * in it. I think this and the tariffs hurt the usd the past few months. When he shuts up the usd will regain. Back before the u.s. imported 50% of it oil the benchmark for the eur/usd was under 0.54.. These things take time. In a decade or so, I think the eu will be below 1.0 sustained for a long time and reaching for 0.54. Each time the EZ buys oil from the u.s. It helps the usd. Not so much this year. But the drip drip weighs on each barrel. I posted this many time long ago. Since then. The eu has been under 1.0. That's probably coming again. Although the tariffs are delaying it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,852
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:16am Mar 24, 2025 11:16am
The Oil-Dollar Connection: How U.S. Energy Independence Strengthens the USD
For decades, the value of a country’s currency has been closely tied to its energy production and trade. The U.S. dollar (USD) has long been the world’s primary reserve currency, but its strength relative to other major currencies, like the euro (EUR), has fluctuated based on economic factors—including oil.
In the 1970s, when the U.S. relied heavily on foreign oil imports, the trade deficit grew as billions of dollars left the country to pay for energy needs. This weakened the USD over time, as more dollars circulated globally without being reinvested back into the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Europe, also reliant on oil imports, was less affected since its economic model did not depend on the global reserve status of its currency.
However, in 2009, a major shift occurred. The U.S. significantly increased its domestic oil production through advancements in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling. By 2016, the U.S. became a net exporter of oil and natural gas, meaning it was selling more energy to the world than it was buying. This had profound effects on the USD and the global energy trade:

  1. Increased Demand for USD – When other countries buy oil from the U.S., they must pay in dollars. This increases global demand for the USD, strengthening its value relative to other currencies.
  2. Reduced Trade Deficit – Instead of sending dollars overseas for oil, the U.S. now keeps more of its currency within its own economy or receives foreign currency in exchange, supporting a stronger USD over time.
  3. Weaker Euro Trend – The euro has faced downward pressure since the U.S. became a net exporter of energy. Europe remains highly dependent on imported oil and natural gas, especially from Russia and the Middle East. As the U.S. increases its exports to Europe, European buyers must exchange euros for dollars, adding further demand for USD and weakening the euro over time.
  4. Long-Term Implications – Since the 2009 shift, the euro has steadily declined against the dollar, with key moments reflecting this energy-driven economic change. The 2016 closing price of EUR/USD at 1.0507, the lowest in 13 years, coincided with the U.S. exporting its first crude oil shipment in January 2016. This trend suggests that as the U.S. strengthens its energy exports, the USD will likely remain stronger over the long term compared to the euro.

Conclusion
The U.S. shift from an oil importer to an energy exporter has structurally changed the global currency landscape. Each barrel of oil purchased from the U.S. increases demand for the dollar, reinforcing its strength while placing pressure on currencies like the euro. Over time, this dynamic has proven to be a key driver in the EUR/USD trend, with the potential for further long-term dollar appreciation as energy trade flows continue to favor the U.S.
While short-term market fluctuations will always exist, the fundamental reality remains: a stronger U.S. energy position supports a stronger U.S. dollar. As long as the U.S. maintains its energy dominance, this trend will likely persist.
By: Gatorinla

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,853
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:26am Mar 24, 2025 11:26am
LuLu to come.
https://www.google.com/search?sca_es...Z9Zu_BshI,st:0
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,854
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:37am Mar 24, 2025 11:37am
Average quarter is about 650 pips. This quarter atm at 777. Average 6 month 843. Average year 1,664. 1 6mth average is YS1. 1.008x ish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,855
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:42am Mar 24, 2025 11:42am
The world's largest NG facility adds 18 billion to construction. This is for Europe
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/18b-...north-america/
There is a decent chance we hit the high at 1.095x..
Also today's high may be a decent place to resist. EU PA likes to rhyme with the same numbers. The high about 958, today 854 next?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,856
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:44am Mar 24, 2025 11:44am
Quoting LoneTrader1
Nasdaq USTEC gap vs gap {image}
Upper gap filled, S&P 500 too
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  • #121,857
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:47am Mar 24, 2025 11:47am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Upper gap filled, S&P 500 too {image}
US500
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  • #121,858
  • Mar 24, 2025 11:51am Mar 24, 2025 11:51am
Quoting gatorinla
The Oil-Dollar Connection: How U.S. Energy Independence Strengthens the USD For decades, the value of a country’s currency has been closely tied to its energy production and trade. The U.S. dollar (USD) has long been the world’s primary reserve currency, but its strength relative to other major currencies, like the euro (EUR), has fluctuated based on economic factors—including oil. In the 1970s, when the U.S. relied heavily on foreign oil imports, the trade deficit grew as billions of dollars left the country to pay for energy needs. This weakened...
This is partially true. In the past, Oil is exchanged globally only with USD as currency; nowadays, many countries, including China, buy oil via their own currency. Hence the demand for USD is decreasing or should decrease in comparison with the past.
  • #121,859
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:15pm Mar 24, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} This is partially true. In the past, Oil is exchanged globally only with USD as currency; nowadays, many countries, including China, buy oil via their own currency. Hence the demand for USD is decreasing or should decrease in comparison with the past.
The comparison is to europe. Eur/USD .. Besides that China buys almost all its oil. China is in decline . The population rate is unstainable. The 1 child rule has gutted their future. Lack of energy dont help. China is a paper tiger. The only way for the leader to stay in power is to start a war. To keep the people from rising up. But in the end it will collapse on its own weight. The masses were only allowed to invest it domestic real-estate. With no population gain. Those ghost cities will fall down. Nobody will ever live in them accept pigeons. Pigeon crap acid will eat those cities. Then China will need less oil.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,860
  • Mar 24, 2025 12:18pm Mar 24, 2025 12:18pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} US500 {image}
That may take that outflow pressure off the usd
A LL after LC
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