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The Swamp

  • #121,801
  • Mar 21, 2025 10:56am Mar 21, 2025 10:56am
Inserted Video


took some profits.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #121,802
  • Mar 21, 2025 11:48am Mar 21, 2025 11:48am
Its Friday after london. Sustained below 824.4 points bearish st to me. lc at 806. But its better below 814 806 805 for shorts and dropping. 792 has some support merit for the 4h that closes in more than 1 h.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,803
  • Mar 21, 2025 3:49pm Mar 21, 2025 3:49pm
I dont know how this will go. I'm still going with 411 398 this month. But the calendar makes it hard. I need a hard decisive move Monday or Tuesday dropping. From this current area. Or I will bail. A possible decent GAP down for open Sunday would not be surprising.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,804
  • Mar 21, 2025 4:05pm Mar 21, 2025 4:05pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,805
  • Mar 21, 2025 4:11pm Mar 21, 2025 4:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
I dont know how this will go. I'm still going with 411 398 this month. But the calendar makes it hard. I need a hard decisive move Monday or Tuesday dropping. From this current area. Or I will bail. A possible decent GAP down for open Sunday would not be surprising.
we need a steep channel to achieve your target
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #121,806
  • Mar 21, 2025 8:53pm Mar 21, 2025 8:53pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} we need a steep channel to achieve your target
Yeah like this. 6 days. 69.166 pips per day average. It dont look likely. If it gaps below 806, and drop hard from there. I might have slim shot. It's a hard drop, these usually go when right. If it goes up I will get out.
If you remember 871.5 it missed by 2 on a hard drop out of nowhere. Later it did the same, and broke it. If I'm on the right side. I would expect that same type of capitualization on a drop. If my choice is the right one. I would expect a steep angle that a 70 pips per day drop would give.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,807
  • Mar 21, 2025 9:03pm Mar 21, 2025 9:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah like this. 6 days. 69.166 pips per day average. It dont look likely. If it gaps below 806, and drop hard from there. I might have slim shot. It's a hard drop, these usually go when right. If it goes up I will get out. If you remember 871.5 it missed by 2 on a hard drop out of nowhere. Later it did the same, and broke it. If I'm on the right side. I would expect that same type of capitualization on a drop. If my choice is the right one. I would expect a steep angle that a 70 pips per day drop would give. {image}
871
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,808
  • Mar 21, 2025 9:06pm Mar 21, 2025 9:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 871 {image}
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A gap down may erase that lower shadow
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,809
  • Mar 21, 2025 9:10pm Mar 21, 2025 9:10pm
wk engulfed
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,810
  • Mar 21, 2025 9:16pm Mar 21, 2025 9:16pm
If has a high % chance using the last 10 yrs data. But the calendar is very tight. If it falls a bunch, and misses 410 or 398 on/before March 31. I will be ok with it.
This trade setup, has already dropped more than 150 pips. Since I mentioned it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,811
  • Edited 9:46pm Mar 21, 2025 9:35pm | Edited 9:46pm
I have not had a chance to look at how these turned out this week. The levels were meant to trade toward regardless of direction and hit before March close. Probably best using a 1h 4h or better reversal sign toward the numbers. I'm too busy/lazy to check. If anyone cares to, left me know how this turned out. Personally I would of only taken the ones against a large support or resistance. That's why the eu 929 35 was my focus. Because besides 871. It could continue to 410. Let me know if these worked, and would of been beneficial.
These should be valid through March 31
They tend to attract pa when overextended, better when hitting a s/r to collapse toward the number. If the larger trend is already gone that way, its even better.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,812
  • Mar 21, 2025 9:47pm Mar 21, 2025 9:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
I have not had a chance to look at how these turned out this week. The levels were meant to trade toward regardless of direction and hit before March close. Probably best using a 1h 4h or better reversal sign toward the numbers. I'm too busy/lazy to check. If anyone cares to, left me know how this turned out. Personally I would of only taken the ones against a large support or resistance. That's why the eu 929 35 was my focus. Because besides 871. It could continue to 410. Let me know if these worked, and would of been beneficial. These should be...
We still got 6 trading days.. Put them on a chart and see if any, or how many attract and are hit.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,813
  • Mar 21, 2025 10:31pm Mar 21, 2025 10:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
If has a high % chance using the last 10 yrs data. But the calendar is very tight. If it falls a bunch, and misses 410 or 398 on/before March 31. I will be ok with it. This trade setup, has already dropped more than 150 pips. Since I mentioned it.
410 is a bit far away for me but i think 0530 is achievable
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #121,814
  • Mar 22, 2025 5:29am Mar 22, 2025 5:29am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 410 is a bit far away for me but i think 0530 is achievable
dropping to 398 410 is far away. I do think the same. wk ar is about 195 pips. I'm not holding my breath. Every situation is unique. Price did not achieve 984. pa was rejected from 929 and 935 yR1. Pa was rejected from 877. Now its under 835x with a week close. I do see the pp at Q610 and y635. I also see some interest at 1.0701x. I would of rathered test 1.0975/1.1. That didnt happen. After pa broke up from the pp at 0610 and 35. The yr1 was 935. I have to think 610/35 could come genetically. since pa did not hold above 935. The quarter did pass the 650 pips of atr. 777 pips so for this quarter. This situation is unique with the tariffs on/off erratic behavior. But over a 10 year look without any indicators. 410 on the month, or 398 on the quarter happens more than not historically. It may not this time. But with the overbought indication, the 3 crows day candles, the week engulfed candle, rejection from 877 929 935 and 835. It has a shot at the 73% 10 year analysis. But its still a moon shot away. So I can't kid myself. Its dropped 160 pips. When it was 160 pips higher. 410 an 398/38x were a lot further away than they are now. So my solution is just move my stop loss down periodically. I can't worry about the mule, my job is to load the wagon. If the mule dies pulling it. I will get a new mule.If the mule survives, I will get him a bucket of oats.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,815
  • Mar 22, 2025 5:50am Mar 22, 2025 5:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dropping to 398 410 is far away. I do think the same. wk ar is about 195 pips. I'm not holding my breath. Every situation is unique. Price did not achieve 984. pa was rejected from 929 and 935 yR1. Pa was rejected from 877. Now its under 835x with a week close. I do see the pp at Q610 and y635. I also see some interest at 1.0701x. I would of rathered test 1.0975/1.1. That didnt happen. After pa broke up from the pp at 0610 and 35. The yr1 was 935. I have to think 610/35 could come genetically. since pa did not hold above 935. The quarter...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,816
  • Edited 6:35am Mar 22, 2025 6:13am | Edited 6:35am
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zoomed in a little. 2023 took 835+. 2024 took it back. 2025 ? This year 2025 tested the next lower level, making a LL below 23 and 24.
last week closed below 835. That mean little alone. Inking with the loss of others. It adds a small piece of weight.
I dont think pa would be this high without the tariffs causing outflow in stocks.
Last year closed lower, that indicated a bearish breakout.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,817
  • Mar 22, 2025 3:22pm Mar 22, 2025 3:22pm
The 2024 close was a lower close. PA has not closed below 1.0216 since 2001. Candle wise its in a probable b/o lower setup. When it closed below 1.05068. I ont expect to catch the entire move. I do want to be aware of this potential momentum a fall can have from large numbers
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,818
  • Edited 7:18pm Mar 22, 2025 7:04pm | Edited 7:18pm
Based on a ten year study (This dont mean it will happen this time). Early week if pa hits 1.0806. Followed by a move away. I'm not giving a bullish outlook, but it can rise. But it favors the run toward 410 398 directional. If it did fall. 72% for first 100 pips. Within the first 2 days. I have 2 numbers 410 and 398. When this happens they have more pull power. The reasonable range is 300 to 0 pips toward 1.0410/398. Upon a gap down below 1.0806, without a major retrace back above 1.0806. It significantly increases chance of a run closer to 1.0410 1.0698. If it gaps down and retests 1.0806 but fails to reclaim it, that would further confirm bearish continuation.
1.0410 an 1.0398 are more than 300 pips. What's not included in the 10yr study is, that year lower open. It may create more influence. Or not, the repatriation of money into EZ. Has distorted what I aimed for earlier this year. I think that why the EU rose this high. The 10yr study is based on last week's pa. A tiny cut in time based on personality of 10 years. Hopefully its fresh enough to include the latter part of this rise. And its overextended enough to be attracted. If it not, a strong push above 1.0806 will be noticable and a chance to bail.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,819
  • Mar 23, 2025 6:44am Mar 23, 2025 6:44am
877 looked popular the last 12hs.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,820
  • Mar 23, 2025 1:56pm Mar 23, 2025 1:56pm
cant see that from my end
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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