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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #161
  • Edited 6:30am Mar 20, 2025 6:13am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} On a day like today you should not trade before the most important news anyway, makes not much sense .... IMHO (speaking for USD pairs). I started sitting at PC just now...for the first time today.
Quoting MoneyMind8
{quote} I would usually wait at least 30mins or so after the news is released. There is a lot of FOMO and impulsive trades during news release. I used to trade the news but learning that I just sit back and wait a while longer to really see the trend and sentiment
Hello Sister, thank you for stopping by. Today is Thursday, and I also spent most of my time reviewing the system. Some pairs aligned with the system. Since I'm trading in a Prop Firm, I'm already used to not trading during Red News. This week has too much Red News.

Hello MoneyMind8, thanks for stopping by.
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #162
  • Edited 6:49am Mar 20, 2025 6:19am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Back to PVSRA TVT Daily Ranger simplified, and the final destination. For its weakness, just be aware: "don't trade against trends." Good Luck! Note: Thanks to TooSlow for advice. 19/03/2025 PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 - Daily Ranger Rules of 7 1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using aDtr 21 Days. A broader range, such as 99 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk). 2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly = SR/σ, where SR = 0.1...
Minor Revision:
Remove Universal Rules

From the 14 selected pairs monitored today, plus EU and GU, 3 pairs hit SL or failed, while the other 13 pairs successfully hit TP. That would be 81.25% hit rate in a Day. GBPNZD for Example.

Inserted Code
20/03/2025
PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 - Daily Ranger
Rules of 7
1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using aDtr 21 Days. A broader range, such as 99 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk).
2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly = SR/σ, where SR = 0.1 and σ = 1% per day. However, We use a scale target, Percentage Daily Profit Target, TP/SL ratio 1:1 (like a Sniper) - based on 1/3 aDtr 21. Stop Loss is mandatory.
3. Timing Entry: Enter better after 8 hours from New Day (after Range 2 Starts).
4. Trends: Golden Belt stacked below Blue Dragon for Long, and above Blue Dragon for Short.
5. Key Levels & Volume: Pay attention to consolidation above or below whole/half levels, S/R levels, and high-volume activity.
6. No trade during Red News events.
7. Discipline like a robot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.piM15-Success.png Size: 29 KB
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #163
  • Mar 20, 2025 10:35am Mar 20, 2025 10:35am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Minor Revision: Remove Universal Rules From the 14 selected pairs monitored today, plus EU and GU, 3 pairs hit SL or failed, while the other 13 pairs successfully hit TP. That would be 81.25% hit rate in a Day. GBPNZD for Example. 20/03/2025 PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 - Daily Ranger Rules of 7 1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using aDtr 21 Days. A broader range, such as 99 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk). 2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly =...
This is the "Edges recap", theory book, 14 pairs + 2 pairs for today (20-03-2025).
Failed pairs: USDJPY, GBPCAD, and GBPUSD. The other pairs moved (luckily) according to the system (method).

PART I
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.piM15-Success.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.piM15-Success.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.piM15-Success.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.piM15-Failed.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.piM15-Success Red News.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.piM15-Success.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.piM15-Success.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY.piM15-Success.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.piM15-Failed.png Size: 27 KB
Attached Image
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  • #164
  • Mar 20, 2025 10:39am Mar 20, 2025 10:39am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} This is the "Edges recap", theory book, 14 pairs + 2 pairs for today (20-03-2025). Failed pairs: USDJPY, GBPCAD, and GBPUSD. The other pairs moved (luckily) according to the system (method). {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Part II
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.piM15-Success.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.piM15-Success.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.piM15-Success.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY.piM15-Success.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.piM15-Success.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.piM15-Failed.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.piM15-Success.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #165
  • Mar 20, 2025 10:43am Mar 20, 2025 10:43am
good evening. could you provide your template and indicators. thanks in advance.
  • #166
  • Mar 20, 2025 11:00am Mar 20, 2025 11:00am
Quoting patron150
good evening. could you provide your template and indicators. thanks in advance.
Here u are. This the latest template from this revision: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post15187835
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar PVSRA TVT 0.33 aDtr 21 Daily Ranger.rar   605 KB | 206 downloads
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  • #167
  • Mar 21, 2025 2:12am Mar 21, 2025 2:12am
It is Friday. Looking for Short with Trends, Lol
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  • #168
  • Mar 21, 2025 12:07pm Mar 21, 2025 12:07pm
End of temporary journey. Take a break...
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  • #169
  • Edited 4:22am Mar 22, 2025 4:12am | Edited 4:22am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Minor Revision: Remove Universal Rules From the 14 selected pairs monitored today, plus EU and GU, 3 pairs hit SL or failed, while the other 13 pairs successfully hit TP. That would be 81.25% hit rate in a Day. GBPNZD for Example. 20/03/2025 PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 - Daily Ranger Rules of 7 1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using aDtr 21 Days. A broader range, such as 99 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk). 2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly =...
Final Revision, as always, Enter better after the London Open. It doesn’t always work, but it provides a bit more resilience for a better SL, and to see more accurately the levels or areas of Support and Resistance, as well as the upward or downward curve of Trends.

Inserted Code
22/03/2025
PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 - Daily Ranger
Rules of 7
1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using aDtr 21 Days. A broader range, such as 99 pips and above, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk).
2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex: 10:1; Kelly = SR/σ, where SR = 0.1 and σ = 1% per day. However, We use a scale target, Percentage Daily Profit Target, TP/SL ratio 1:1 (like a Sniper) - based on 1/3 aDtr 21. Stop Loss is mandatory.
3. Timing Entry: Enter better after London Open.
4. Trends: Golden Belt stacked below Blue Dragon for Long, and above Blue Dragon for Short.
5. Key Levels & Volume: Pay attention to consolidation above or below whole/half levels, S/R levels, and high-volume activity.
6. No trade during Red News events.
7. Discipline like a robot.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.iM15.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.iM15.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.iM15.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #170
  • Mar 22, 2025 5:32am Mar 22, 2025 5:32am
Inside the 800-Member Trading Cartel Bleeding Prop Firms Dry
Thursday, 20/03/2025 | 20:04 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel

  1. PipFarm CEO James Glyde uncovered a global network that was manipulating prop trading challenges.
  2. The investigation revealed that adding more rules only hindered legitimate traders while scammers quickly adapted.

Good Read
https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...rop-firms-dry/

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: prop%20firm%20scam_id_bf46e128-f000-40c5-bec8-b37c3e12b123_size975.jpg Size: 108 KB
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  • #171
  • Edited 9:16am Mar 22, 2025 5:40am | Edited 9:16am
Only 1 in 20 Traders Pass Prop Firm Challenges, Reports The Funded Trader
Tuesday, 18/03/2025 | 15:46 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel

  1. Of those who pass, around 20% achieve any payouts. This means just 1% of all TFT clients actually make money.
  2. However, other industry data shows these brutal statistics are typical across the prop firm sector.

Good Read
https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...funded-trader/

Quote
Although TFT certainly has its issues, in this case, their business model isn't that different from other prop firms. However, it's undeniable that their figures are somewhat lower than industry averages.
Quote
According to data shared with Finance Magnates last year by prop firm technology provider FPFX Tech, only 7% of 300,000 prop trading accounts achieved a payout. Moreover, these payouts weren't particularly high, averaging just 4% of the funded plan size. So, if a trader received access to a $10,000 account, they gained $400. And for access to such a challenge, they had to pay an average of $100.
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  • #172
  • Edited 8:56am Mar 23, 2025 6:57am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting RoelsMajor
GDP per capita PPP (current international $) {quote} Source: https://www.imf.org/external/datamap...ADVEC/WEOWORLD {image} {file}
Update Data GDP PPP per month (in Internasional US Dollar), 2025

Nine months (9, cloud # nine) after being introduced to the world of Gaming Prop Firms, I still haven’t managed to turn a profit, let alone succeed in clearing the 1-Step challenge, not able to repeat the record of a maximum +100% profit in 3 days with an EA robot (in Live Acc) or +30% in two weeks either (in Live Acc) or +6% in 37 hours (Demo Acc) or +11% in 7 Days (Demo Acc), so may episodes of Win Big and Loss (not so big, at max -67% DD, my worst record alltime since 2007), so many periodes. This also means I’ve failed to earn the standard $1460 for Indonesia—equivalent to Rp24,090,000 (in local currency) per month—which could have been achieved by working a regular job as slave (an employee), whether as slave in the private or public sector, or as an ordinary worker. The costs incurred were minimal, just small amounts and not continuous each month, but when averaged, it comes out to a total loss of about -$443 USD, or -$49 per month.

I haven’t succeeded yet, perhaps because I lack trading talent, or maybe I’m short on skills (as suggested by modern psychological error theory), or perhaps it’s simply a matter of bad luck, or even because the time I’ve spent hasn’t been optimal—after all, it’s just a hobby during my free time. As for the performance of my fellow traders, only a few have been highly optimal; the rest have either not reported much or their data is unknown. However, some of those who are both lucky and skilled have managed to succeed, despite their hard work.

Nonetheless, I still believe that someday there will be a “significant edge” that can be explored and continuously applied to generate repeated profits over the long term. Hopefully and Lol

Note: You will not be able to obtain this report from someone who lacks self-honesty and does not keep accurate data records (stats).
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls GDP PPP 2025.xls   45 KB | 218 downloads
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  • #173
  • Mar 23, 2025 8:07am Mar 23, 2025 8:07am
Salamat pagi bro! I appreciate your honesty + transparency in documenting your thought process. I too am a fan of Taleb and I'm coming into the markets seriously after years of casually being interested. Best of luck!
  • #174
  • Edited 10:06am Mar 23, 2025 9:52am | Edited 10:06am
Max Static Drawdown (DD) and Target Profit (TP)
Fx Prop Firms

Until the TP becomes "rational," there is little chance or opportunity to pass the challenge, to achieve profit or monthly payouts in any Prop Firms (especially Fx). The Max Static DD is already rational at -6%, but the Max Static TP is not yet, so it's better to wait until the time comes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 8 KB
fooled by randomness in art
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  • #175
  • Edited 5:11pm Mar 23, 2025 12:47pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting kpizza88
Salamat pagi bro! I appreciate your honesty + transparency in documenting your thought process. I too am a fan of Taleb and I'm coming into the markets seriously after years of casually being interested. Best of luck!
Hey Bro, glad you stopped by. Honesty comes at a high price, Bro, and you can only find it rarely in this scam-filled industry. I'm not that kind of person—it just doesn't feel right to deceive others and be a scammer, especially when we're all traders trying to make money, right? Even though the world of promotions is full of tricks and deception. These are all stats in prop firms until now, so don't be surprised—this is how trading looks all the time. As for the profitable part on a live account, that was a long time ago and isn't relevant anymore because performance is random over time (back in 2007 or 2009, 100% in 3 days, in 2016 win 30% in 15 Days and lost back -67% in 2 or 3 months).

So, the unprofitable parts are also scattered just like the profitable ones. If you look at the countless trading systems on FF, not a single one—maybe one or two at most—has a consistent win/loss statistic even for just one month, or let's say, at the very least, four months. So, why is trading fun? It's a way to meditate while aiming to be profitable. Lol.

Back in 2016, on live accounts, not a single trader was able to complete the challenge of maintaining profitable statistics for a full year (the contest thread here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-trading-goal ended before reaching one year). Within three months, there were a few who were highly profitable, including my mentor, Sister Fisher. Only a handful of traders I knew were profitable and had proven it on live account TE, but not many. And I haven't seen them around here anymore, except for a few. The contest was exciting; we could profit like 7% or 9% in a day and recover tens of percent in a month, but the turtle style still prevailed. Lol. Unlike in Prop Firms, where there are many rules on lot sizes and percentages.

Nowadays, I see new kids everywhere trading and thinking they know everything, while only a few seniors remain. And I guess these new kids might have found their holy grail—giving them the benefit of the doubt. Most just do paper trading, don't trade at all, just act as cheerleaders, and then they thought more about RR, or greater RR than 1:1 with a crazy probability and the number of pips gain, not percentage. I guess that's a fascinating new thing—either a hallucination or an illusion. It’s fun to watch their journey, along with their rhymes, sarcastic memes, and jokes. So Lel for bright future, maybe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
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  • #176
  • Mar 23, 2025 2:35pm Mar 23, 2025 2:35pm
Quote
Nero cannot blow up. His less oversized abode, with its 4000 books, is his own. No Market event cant take it away from him. Every one of his losses is limited. His trader's dignity wil never, never be threatened.
--- Nassim Nicholas Taleb --- Fooled by Randomness ---
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  • #177
  • Edited 5:28pm Mar 23, 2025 5:05pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quote
Anyone w/decent skills in discrete mathematics & combinatorics (capable of proving a theorem), & w/geometric intuitions shd be capable of raising their IQ test scores > ~150-160 by dint of training, GRE-style, without increasing their intellect a bit. IQ is a fraud.
https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1899217084145660354
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  • #178
  • Mar 23, 2025 11:38pm Mar 23, 2025 11:38pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Only 1 in 20 Traders Pass Prop Firm Challenges, Reports The Funded Trader Tuesday, 18/03/2025 | 15:46 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel Of those who pass, around 20% achieve any payouts. This means just 1% of all TFT clients actually make money. However, other industry data shows these brutal statistics are typical across the prop firm sector. Good Read https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...funded-trader/ {quote} {quote}
I thought that the prop route would be the easier option, I am now learning through this post and from personal experience this may not be the case. I think I need better understanding of my system though to be fair. That article was interesting to read.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #179
  • Mar 24, 2025 3:58am Mar 24, 2025 3:58am
Let's see how this textbook trade EURNZD can generate a profit for 1/3 aDtr today, 1 unit 46 pips (0.5%), RR 1. Same pattern as GBPNZD and GBPAUD, but not as good for EURAUD. One hour after London Open. There will be red News for GBP 30 minutes from now. EUR 30 minutes after Red News. 14 pairs option for selected 1/3 aDtr > and = 99 today.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iH1-T1.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-T1.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr 24032025.png Size: 8 KB
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #180
  • Edited 5:56am Mar 24, 2025 5:43am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} I thought that the prop route would be the easier option, I am now learning through this post and from personal experience this may not be the case. I think I need better understanding of my system though to be fair. That article was interesting to read.
The market is a product of the financial world. The difficulty lies in the fact that we can never be certain and struggle to create a universally applicable standard that remains valid for all products over a long period, because randomness, much much more random than the real world real skills performance. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15140001. Prop firms are more challenging than real accounts https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15159102, especially due to https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post15175035. This notebook is not always considered correct by others, but it provides an honest perspective rather than relying on toxic positivity in psychology, which is clearly a pseudo-science from a scientific standpoint. This is post #180.
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