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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #5,121
  • Jul 31, 2007 9:12am Jul 31, 2007 9:12am
Quoting ianf0ster
Did it work?
  • #5,122
  • Jul 31, 2007 9:42am Jul 31, 2007 9:42am
Thanks guys.
Who knows, one day I may understand all this stuff.
And I used to work in IT - databases though.

Ian
  • #5,123
  • Jul 31, 2007 10:05am Jul 31, 2007 10:05am
Quoting JoshDance
So I went short on the USDCAD pinbar, was up about 45 pips, then it turned back up. Now, the daily has not closed, but right now I'd be -10 if I closed the trade. I don't WANT to close the trade, but my gut says this will not go back down. Any experienced folks want to offer a rationale (not a recommendation, I understand) for staying in, or closing with a small loss? (by the time you read, it may have turned into a big loss lol!)

I'll give a rationale for staying in... I'm trading daily charts, so stick to them and let the trade run! :-) Anything else?
HI,
I was going to take this long on the weekly BUOB, so that would have been long from 1.0647. Ive been busy though this week so I didnt get in but that was my plan...a weekly signal would be stronger than a daily, so...anyway take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #5,124
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:14am Jul 31, 2007 11:14am
Quoting JoshDance
So I went short on the USDCAD pinbar, was up about 45 pips, then it turned back up. Now, the daily has not closed, but right now I'd be -10 if I closed the trade. I don't WANT to close the trade, but my gut says this will not go back down. Any experienced folks want to offer a rationale (not a recommendation, I understand) for staying in, or closing with a small loss? (by the time you read, it may have turned into a big loss lol!)

I'll give a rationale for staying in... I'm trading daily charts, so stick to them and let the trade run! :-) Anything else?
Dont consider myself experienced, but looks like we will get an opposing PIN (depending how it closes tonight). That will give the opportunity to stay in, close or reverse, depending on your strategy.....
  • #5,125
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:26am Jul 31, 2007 11:26am
Quoting the_wizard
I've done a BAD thing.

And I know it's a bad thing

I predicted in my journal last week that the bund would break out of that lower range at around 111.00 and test the previous support (around 220 points higher) before resuming its downwards trend.

It's testimony to how hard trading is that despite being correct (to the tick) on that whole move, I have still lost money trying to trade this intraday.

And now it's tested that level and formed a pin bar and I've gone short right at the close before it's even broken.

Someone scream at me.
Hi Wiz,
You nearly had me doing a bad thing last night by posting your Bund trade. It looked so good to me that i nearly took it. However my Spreadbet company's platform was not up to the task at that time.

Anyhow, at least the Bund is down (at least according to my SB's charts - I don't have any decent charts of it).
One thing you should know - though it is to be discouraged for newbies (like myself) is that several people play a PB on a close or on a retrace rather than on the break. that way they get a better R/R though the win/loss ratio worsens.

I hope this helps,

Ian
  • #5,126
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:52am Jul 31, 2007 11:52am
Quoting PeterFM
then your rationale should keep you in. If it's a loser but the trade was set inline with your normal strategy, it was a good trade. It's just one of those that didn't work.
If you broke your rules to take the trade, then you may have to re-consider.
Knowing you, I suspect it's a std trade (ie good one) so let it run. It'll either go back into profit, or hit your SL.
NEXT!!!
Thanks for the advice Peter... I'm in the trade still, down 20 pips, but we've had a move down, a push back up, and now a push down to give a doji on the current daily bar, so I'll re-evaluate at today's daily bar close. Any ideas on what to do assuming price sort of holds where it's at? In theory, a pinbar usually works best when the move happens on the next bar, or at least pretty soon, right? So price hanging around the same spot would indicate a tendency to break either way, right? So, the pinbar really wouldn't serve much use at that point, correct? Just trying to compare my thought process with others' and make sure I'm not just being crazy.. :-)

Good attitude with the "next" comment.. very true!
  • #5,127
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:54am Jul 31, 2007 11:54am
Quoting ianf0ster
Thanks guys.
Who knows, one day I may understand all this stuff.
And I used to work in IT - databases though.

Ian
No problem ian-- I am a software engineer (not actively, but for fun only) and I have trouble getting my PDA phone to do what I want it to, so go figure! :-)
  • #5,128
  • Jul 31, 2007 12:19pm Jul 31, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Wiz,
You nearly had me doing a bad thing last night by posting your Bund trade. It looked so good to me that i nearly took it. However my Spreadbet company's platform was not up to the task at that time.

Anyhow, at least the Bund is down (at least according to my SB's charts - I don't have any decent charts of it).
One thing you should know - though it is to be discouraged for newbies (like myself) is that several people play a PB on a close or on a retrace rather than on the break. that way they get a better R/R though the win/loss ratio worsens.

I hope this helps,

Ian
Ian,

The pin worked although my personal style of trading is to then drop down to the hourly and double up as additional bullish/bearish setups present themselves.

That way I am swinging a big line when the move really gets underway.

Very, very rarely (although it can and does happen) I can commit almost 100% of my equity to a trade so I am on at max size but with no risk whatsoever because I have moved the stops on each position to a level where if all are hit, the account comes out positive.

Most of the time, as indeed happened in the Bund today, I get stopped out for a small profit (12 points) but if you hit it just right on a trend day then you can make an absolute killing.

Wiz
  • #5,129
  • Jul 31, 2007 1:04pm Jul 31, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting the_wizard
.. my personal style of trading is to then drop down to the hourly and double up as additional bullish/bearish setups present themselves.

That way I am swinging a big line when the move really gets underway.

Very, very rarely (although it can and does happen) I can commit almost 100% of my equity to a trade so I am on at max size but with no risk whatsoever because I have moved the stops on each position to a level where if all are hit, the account comes out positive.
... if you hit it just right on a trend day then you can make an absolute killing.
Wiz
You are truely awesome. For that to work you either need to be very active, or have a big LLOOONG trend.
Sounds rather like Jacko - but I don't recall seeing you in his thread.

Ian
  • #5,130
  • Jul 31, 2007 1:11pm Jul 31, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting JoshDance
Thanks for the advice Peter... I'm in the trade still, down 20 pips, but we've had a move down, a push back up, and now a push down to give a doji on the current daily bar, so I'll re-evaluate at today's daily bar close. Any ideas on what to do assuming price sort of holds where it's at? In theory, a pinbar usually works best when the move happens on the next bar, or at least pretty soon, right? So price hanging around the same spot would indicate a tendency to break either way, right? So, the pinbar really wouldn't serve much use at that point, correct? Just trying to compare my thought process with others' and make sure I'm not just being crazy.. :-)

Good attitude with the "next" comment.. very true!
Hiya Josh.
Yea, it seems you're basically fighting a gigantic weekly BUOB and going by how price is reacting to most s/r levels also a lot of interested buyers.

If today's bar closes even remotely PB / doji'ish I'd move the stop just above today's bar. If we don't move higher before the close already. I'm afraid you're not gonna get away without losses all the time.
But you could always still end up getting a bit more wiggle room. Will have to see.

I took this one too, closed at around +20 after I saw what happened after 1.0590 s/r....ouch. Was almost tempting to go long on that 1h PB against the daily ;p


Given that the carry might melt more from what I am seeing as I am typing, USDCAD might just get pushed higher soon..but it's not very decisive today. Just leans out a bit, comes back, repeat...

It's been a super-tedious two days on any pair here, all this correcting never was my favorite...I prefer fast, strong, decisive moves...this murk is just urglburgl.

Sorry if I'm sounding a bit grumpy, lack of sleeeeep..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,131
  • Jul 31, 2007 3:05pm Jul 31, 2007 3:05pm
Hmmmmmmmm I took this trade too... now I am getting a bit antsy !!! Should have taken my little bit of profit this morning before I went to work !! Trades that don't go good from the get go... always seem to go from bad to worse... top of Bollinger bands right now on one hr charts... maybe it might swing down to the other side with some luck... I will get out then hopefully.
  • #5,132
  • Edited 3:56pm Jul 31, 2007 3:34pm | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting ianf0ster
You are truely awesome. For that to work you either need to be very active, or have a big LLOOONG trend.
Sounds rather like Jacko - but I don't recall seeing you in his thread.

Ian

Ian, you don't have to be that active. I am in a full time office job but I pull up the chart a few minutes before the hour, every hour and if there is a setup in the direction I am positioned, I add to it. I try to make sure that when I do this I am not increasing my risk.

If you can double your size while decreasing your risk then you are onto a real winner, in my opinion.

Although you have to be prepared to be VERY frustrated a lot of the time when you have a huge deal of profit on the table and then come out with absolutely nothing.

Its kind of you to call me awesome but I can assure you I am a long way off. I still don't have the mental aspect of this game under control yet. Today I got a little stubborn with the Bund and rather than bail out for a small lost, held it defiantly throughout the 30 point rally into the close. I did this because although I feel almost positive I am going to take a much larger loss, I am trying to trust the pin over my instinct (my stop is over the top of the pin)

P.S I haven't read Jacko's thread...but I hear a lot about it and will get round to it at some point.
  • #5,133
  • Jul 31, 2007 3:58pm Jul 31, 2007 3:58pm
DBLHLC off of the 50%...
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Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #5,134
  • Jul 31, 2007 6:52pm Jul 31, 2007 6:52pm
Daily Pin for the EurNzd has not played out (see link for chart showing daily pin) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331&page=340

Possible dhb (with in 3 pips) forming now around the 23.6 of the June 26 2006 high and the July 25 2007 low.
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  • #5,135
  • Aug 1, 2007 1:32am Aug 1, 2007 1:32am
Hi All,

I have been watching this closely. I thought you may be interested as it is a trade with the trend as the weekly trend has now turned short.
Looks like a classic H&S formation - although I only trade them with confirmation. Small SL. Looks like a neat little trade.

Tell me what you guys think?
Still learning.
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  • #5,136
  • Aug 1, 2007 1:38am Aug 1, 2007 1:38am
Hi All,

I have been tracking this one as well. PB with a long nose with the eyes very close together. This trade is also with the trend.
On an interesting note I believe that we have a monthly PB on this pair as well.
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  • #5,137
  • Aug 1, 2007 1:57am Aug 1, 2007 1:57am
Sorry- here is another- it would tie in with the one on Fiber confirming $ strength v majors.
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  • #5,138
  • Aug 1, 2007 2:01am Aug 1, 2007 2:01am
Another:
There are just too many!!! All the JPY pairs have PBs.
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  • #5,139
  • Aug 1, 2007 2:39am Aug 1, 2007 2:39am
Hi Lava,
all three of these pins are following the trend, I have taken eur and cable, really on the BEOB from last week, but the pins were a nice confirmation. I took eur on a pullback, which I usually dont do, but since it was good rr I decided to risk it. Also, it has been moving so few pips these days I figured it would take all week to get down to the entry point again...cad isnt getting far in either direction as yet but it could be another goodie Nice work, Raz
Never say never.
  • #5,140
  • Aug 1, 2007 2:47am Aug 1, 2007 2:47am
I'm still trying to pin down (pin, get it?) the movement in EUR/CHF.

First I was long and got stopped out, then I tried to go long again and got stopped out again. Now I have reversed and gone short...stubborness is never good for your account balance. lol
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