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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,521
  • Mar 11, 2025 12:23am Mar 11, 2025 12:23am
Quoting BDfx77
{quote} Very interesting, want to see more , and learn
Thanks for your interest. As time permits, I look forward to sharing upcoming candles so you can analyze the location of the price levels and identify the common denominator, or the underlying formula if you will. I’ll post them about 10 minutes before the candle closes. For example, if you’re using MT5, which has more standard timeframes, I’d post single candle predictions at 11:50 for the upcoming H12 candle. This 11:50 would also include any single candle patterns on H1, H2, H3, H4, H6, or H12 that would be valid for the next candle in the respective timeframe.

We do need to know the close, but especially on the higher timeframes, 11:50 is close enough to guesstimate its location. This allows for a reasonable assessment without having to wait for the exact close. Because of this, and to save time while making sure the candle has enough movement to be worthwhile, I’ll mostly focus on higher timeframes, H4 and above.

For obvious reasons, I can’t just hand over the key to everything, I definitely wouldn’t want any useless trolls here to gain an easy advantage. But this will still be a valuable exercise since you can focus on the candles that matter and work toward identifying the recurring ratio, if you will.

Later, I’ll post the list of specific prices to use.
  • #2,522
  • Mar 11, 2025 2:14am Mar 11, 2025 2:14am
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  • #2,523
  • Mar 11, 2025 2:52am Mar 11, 2025 2:52am
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{image}
plz ignore negative comments and continue your good deeds
  • #2,524
  • Mar 11, 2025 3:25am Mar 11, 2025 3:25am
There is still some time before the current SGDJPY H12 candle closes, but at the moment, it looks like the subsequent candle will be downward. Analyze this candle and see what you figure out.
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  • #2,525
  • Mar 11, 2025 3:40am Mar 11, 2025 3:40am
Hint: For the subsequent move to be a solid down, the closing price needs to be a bit lower, but right now, it's still a little high. There's still 20 minutes left, let’s see how it plays out.
  • #2,526
  • Mar 11, 2025 3:48am Mar 11, 2025 3:48am
CADCHF has a similar H12 candle, so the same analysis applies. Let’s see how it closes.
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  • #2,527
  • Mar 11, 2025 3:56am Mar 11, 2025 3:56am
With a few minutes left to closing price, CADCHF looks better than SGDJPY. SGDJPY is closing too high. It’s still likely to move down within a few candles, but not as decisively perhaps.
  • #2,528
  • Mar 11, 2025 5:19am Mar 11, 2025 5:19am
Quoting BWilliam
Hi guys, great discussion that's been ongoing for years now. I want to point out one important word. Single. CP claimed he can see the edge in a single candle. He claimed professional traders can see the edge in one single candle. Focus your discussion on how to see the edge in a single candle. One candle. It's not about another candle or about other candles around it. Just this one candle. In the context of live trading, it's about seeing the edge in this current candle right now. Just this current one candle. There's clear purpose why CP wrote...
You mean like this or that?
  • #2,529
  • Mar 11, 2025 6:12am Mar 11, 2025 6:12am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} You mean like this or that?
Single weekly candle.

Single daily candle.

Cheers
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Know what you trade
  • #2,530
  • Mar 11, 2025 6:18am Mar 11, 2025 6:18am
Quoting BWilliam
Hi guys, great discussion that's been ongoing for years now. I want to point out one important word. Single. CP claimed he can see the edge in a single candle. He claimed professional traders can see the edge in one single candle. Focus your discussion on how to see the edge in a single candle. One candle. It's not about another candle or about other candles around it. Just this one candle. In the context of live trading, it's about seeing the edge in this current candle right now. Just this current one candle. There's clear purpose why CP wrote...
Quote
CP claimed he can see the edge in a single candle. He claimed professional traders can see the edge in one single candle.
He claimed, but showed nothing, I guess. Like every esoteric cryptic guru.
That's why people digging for years.
Air force
  • #2,531
  • Mar 11, 2025 6:26am Mar 11, 2025 6:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Single weekly candle. Single daily candle. Cheers {image} {image}
Thanks a lot for the contribution. But if you'd just look at one such candlestick, how would you tackle it? I mean, are there reference points that are less important to you? Or woud you only enter if you see a trend according to the current rolling candlestick? Things like that (not thinking about how to trade but more about what to consider).

Let me quote from one of the former linked posts:

Quote
Here’s a trading analogy: Imagine you want to travel as far north as possible. You’re standing on a rail (point A), and you know where north is. So, you jump on a train when one heading north passes by. But eventually, the train slows down, stops (that equals your high), and then starts moving in the opposite direction (south).

(Everyone would make it to a particular point traveling this way. However, it is extremely hard to break down into steps applicable to trading, isn't it?)

My point is this: How long do you stay on the train, hoping it will change direction again and continue north? When do you jump off and wait for the next train? And does it really matter how far the train traveled south before it arrived at point A (which represents the low)? I don’t think so.

The key question is: How do you determine how much the price can retrace (move south) before you should exit? Here’s my observation: Price exhibits a certain level of noise (others might call it vibration; but that would then go back to Gann and other esoteric concepts). Even when price shoots up 10 pips in one minute, it still vibrates (retraces) - as seen, for example, in the lower wick of a candle (but of course also in its upper wick). But since there isn’t an infinite amount of money in the market, there has to be a relationship between the open-close (OC) range of a candle and the magnitude of its retracement. And interestingly, the average ratio of movement to retracement in a random walk appears to be identical to that of the market (but to measure this, you have to chose an observational frame, i.e. an price update period).
  • #2,532
  • Mar 11, 2025 6:27am Mar 11, 2025 6:27am
https://www.tradingview.com/script/t...dle-Evolution/
Like... see the first one or two hours in H4 candle, maybe the remaining ones are in the same direction. Maybe not.
Stats should be collected and analyzed.
But almost no one does this.
Air force
  • #2,533
  • Edited 7:09am Mar 11, 2025 6:29am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting W0lfram
https://www.tradingview.com/script/t...dle-Evolution/ Like... see the first one or two hours in H4 candle, maybe the remaining ones are in the same direction. Maybe not. Stats should be collected and analyzed. But almost no one does this.
So true. But people want to see quantitative proofs if you're just going to discuss about ideas and/or observations.
You know that I more like ratios of 1:4, do you? That's te average upper wick time. And of course, this can be seen as another CS.
  • #2,534
  • Mar 11, 2025 6:30am Mar 11, 2025 6:30am
One single candle... Very interesting... What kind of candle? Where can we go to research more about this so called edge... I apologize up front
, as I am very new to this thread... Happy trading?
  • #2,535
  • Mar 11, 2025 6:47am Mar 11, 2025 6:47am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Thanks a lot for the contribution. But if you'd just look at one such candlestick, how would you tackle it? I mean, are there reference points that are less important to you? Or woud you only enter if you see a trend according to the current rolling candlestick? Things like that (not thinking about how to trade but more about what to consider)
To begin, we have to decide what single candle to trade.

Example, trade this
1. 1 hour candle, or
2. 4 hour candle, or
3. Day candle, or
4. Week candle, or
...and so on....
Most traders don't know what candle they trade. They are not orientated to single candle trading that CP proposed.

Once we made that decision, then we focus on collating and analysing data related to that selected candle.

Basic facts we know, example
A. For 1 hour candle,
1. It's made out up of 4 x 15m candles x 3 x5m candles.
2. 4x 1hour candle = 4hour candle.
3. We know the OHLC of each of these candles.
4. We know the average range of each these candles.

We do statistical analyses to uncover consistent characteristics. Plenty of metrics to work with.

Quoting W0lfram
But almost no one does this.
This is why I posted the reminder that this discussion return to the original single candle. Perhaps someone might get interested to do it.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,536
  • Mar 11, 2025 7:00am Mar 11, 2025 7:00am
Hey BW,
Would u be kind enough to share your indicator for ADR/ATR for adjustable TF's ?
Thanks
DM
  • #2,537
  • Edited 9:45am Mar 11, 2025 7:01am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Thanks a lot for the contribution. But if you'd just look at one such candlestick, how would you tackle it? I mean, are there reference points that are less important to you? Or woud you only enter if you see a trend according to the current rolling candlestick? Things like that (not thinking about how to trade but more about what to consider). Let me quote from one of the former linked posts: {quote}
I'll answer it this way.

If we're traveling from South Africa and we know we are on our way to London. And we are now in Ghana. It's logical to stay on the train. And for others to hop on the train up north.

The tricky question is, how do we know the train is bound for London?

In the context of forex, we know price has to travel somewhere everyday. Define in clear metrics what that somewhere is. Then we know where the "London" destination is. Meaning we know where the train is going to with a statistical edge.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,538
  • Mar 11, 2025 7:05am Mar 11, 2025 7:05am
Quoting gbrooks
One single candle... Very interesting... What kind of candle? Where can we go to research more about this so called edge... I apologize up front , as I am very new to this thread... Happy trading?
You need to find it yourself. It's not so easy
Originally only an idea has been posted. An idea without any proofs.
  • #2,539
  • Mar 11, 2025 7:16am Mar 11, 2025 7:16am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote} This is why I posted the reminder that this discussion return to the original single candle. Perhaps someone might get interested to do it. Cheers
Hi, BWilliam.
I meant in general, few people support their claims with stats part.

This is somewhat related to what I posted earlier here: go long after green candle, wait, see what happens.
And rolling candles were already mentioned by AntiCre. It literally doesn't matter when, for example, the hourly candle starts - 15:00 or 15:06.
I did it for Monthly GU. Will repost here later.
Air force
  • #2,540
  • Mar 11, 2025 8:15am Mar 11, 2025 8:15am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} You need to find it yourself. It's not so easy Originally only an idea has been posted. An idea without any proofs.
The CADCHF H12 candle previously mentioned had a proper closing price, so the expected move should play out. Since it's a 12 hour candle, it'll take some time, likely within one to max three candles. This prediction was based only on the information in that H12 candle. If it plays out, it'll be an example of how a single candle can contain enough information to predict the next move. From there, more examples can be analyzed to develop a “proof” of some sort.
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