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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,501
  • Mar 9, 2025 8:35am Mar 9, 2025 8:35am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Typical primitive thinking in such situations, sorry. Why someone is jealous? You put yourself above others because of 3-week old demo acc. It's just ridiculous.
I don’t have time for you, so I am going to block you, but don’t think for a second that I agree with any nonsense you replied. The only primitive thinking here is believing you matter in this conversation. I just think you are worthless to reply to. You have nothing to show, not even a one day demo proving you can place a single profitable trade.
  • #2,502
  • Mar 9, 2025 8:49am Mar 9, 2025 8:49am
I like the Ignore button feature, very effective at instantly cleaning up the nonsense. It’s refreshing to see the discussion focused on actual learning. We’re here to trade, improve, and share real insights, not deal with those who have nothing to offer but still go the extra mile to spread negativity. If you have nothing to offer, at least don’t try to start shit with someone who clearly outranks you. Then again, some are so dumb they don’t even have the intelligence to realize when they’re completely outmatched. Dumb as a rock and just as useless.
  • #2,503
  • Mar 9, 2025 8:50am Mar 9, 2025 8:50am
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
The markets are more predictable than this thread states. I've found several reliable patterns, so many that I don't even know what to do with them all. Here's another one I spotted earlier today. And before anyone says it's cherry picked, I'm including two upcoming examples on different timeframes and pairs. There were more than just these two, but I'm not going to spend too much time preparing screenshots since there’s no incentive to share beyond simply sharing. This pattern shows an inverted hammer (or something similar) after a downtrend, followed...
in a downtrend, is the pattern invalid if the inverted hammer is not immediately followed by a bullish candle?
  • #2,504
  • Mar 9, 2025 8:56am Mar 9, 2025 8:56am
Quoting angelofx
{quote} in a downtrend, is the pattern invalid if the inverted hammer is not immediately followed by a bullish candle?
It shouldn’t be invalid as long as the inverted hammer forms. I’ll check the charts again for any counterexamples. I noticed this pattern today, so I haven’t extensively backtested it yet, but based on what I’ve seen so far, it appears to hold as long as the inverted hammer is present. Let me know if you find a counterexample that contradicts this.
  • #2,505
  • Mar 9, 2025 8:59am Mar 9, 2025 8:59am
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} It shouldn’t be invalid as long as the inverted hammer forms. I’ll check the charts again for any counterexamples. I noticed this pattern today, so I haven’t extensively backtested it yet, but based on what I’ve seen so far, it appears to hold as long as the inverted hammer is present. Let me know if you find a counterexample that contradicts this.
i have seen some (i'll add chart later) that's why i asked. I guess it's also important how you define a 'trend'
  • #2,506
  • Mar 9, 2025 9:00am Mar 9, 2025 9:00am
Quoting angelofx
{quote} i have seen some (i'll add chart later) that's why i asked. I guess it's also important how you define a 'trend'
Right, they should be strong candles, not just matching the color sequence.
  • #2,507
  • Mar 9, 2025 9:02am Mar 9, 2025 9:02am
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Right, they should be strong candles, not just matching the color sequence.
thank you. will get back
  • #2,508
  • Mar 9, 2025 9:15am Mar 9, 2025 9:15am
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
I like the Ignore button feature, very effective at instantly cleaning up the nonsense. It’s refreshing to see the discussion focused on actual learning. We’re here to trade, improve, and share real insights, not deal with those who have nothing to offer but still go the extra mile to spread negativity. If you have nothing to offer, at least don’t try to start shit with someone who clearly outranks you. Then again, some are so dumb they don’t even have the intelligence to realize when they’re completely outmatched. Dumb as a rock and just as useless....
Nice bragging shit-post tirade.
Keep it up. Your unparalleled wisdom is clearly a beacon in these dark times.

Quote
I like the Ignore button feature, very effective at instantly cleaning up the nonsense.
Subjective. Your posts are still here.
Air force
  • #2,509
  • Mar 9, 2025 9:25am Mar 9, 2025 9:25am
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  • #2,510
  • Mar 9, 2025 9:34am Mar 9, 2025 9:34am
Quoting angelofx
{image}
Oh, that’s not the same pattern.

In the case of an uptrend instead of the downtrend examples I provided earlier, it should be a hammer (green) rather than an inverted hammer (red).

I’ll send more screenshots to make the pattern distinction clearer.
  • #2,511
  • Mar 10, 2025 4:09am Mar 10, 2025 4:09am
Quoting 030985
{quote} If you take the time to look at the available screenshots of his latest version, you will notice that the bold cyan line is actually just the difference between the blue and grey MACDs.
One of the few posts that actually show a willingness to engage in discussion. Thank you!

Here’s my interpretation: If the thick cyan line is meant to be traded and the other two lines (blue and gray) replicate this signal, then in my opinion, this can only suggest that these lines are being used to further dissect cyan, for example, to analyze turning points more precisely. When the blue line crosses the thick cyan line, it may indicate a potential turning point. This makes sense because at that moment, blue equals half of gray, meaning the retracement in the short frame is half the size of that in the long frame (with the short vs. long frame being in a 1:2 ratio).

But of course, we don’t actually need all three lines, as one of them is always redundant. Looking at CP's earliest charts, we can see that he only used four lines. In terms of reactivity, be thick cyan and thin gray could be identical to two of the indicators shown in the most recent charts.

The previous consideration (from the first paragraph) also has implications for the other two lines in CP’s initial charts, orange and teal. These were likely used to validate the gray and thick cyan lines in order to confirm or disqualify potential signals.

The only question that remains for me is what the horizontal lines represent and how they were placed where they are found! But I'd be more interested in the theoretical framework behind the system than trading it.
  • #2,512
  • Mar 10, 2025 4:50am Mar 10, 2025 4:50am
This example shows that markets are predictable and not fully random. There are many other examples, but I’m not motivated to create additional screenshots.

The pattern in this example was identified yesterday. As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve found many reliable patterns, so many that I don’t even know what to do with all of them. If there are people interested in trading one or more of these patterns, I can create a group/thread where we can trade them together. That would give me more motivation to trade patterns.

I don’t personally trade patterns because they require actively identifying them. I trade live using a different method.

The predicted movement is here.

The outcome:

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If the market were fully random, this level of accuracy would be impossible. A completely random system wouldn’t allow for repeatable predictions. The fact that the outcome matched the prediction so closely proves that price movements follow patterns that can be identified in advance. This is just one example, but it shows that the market has structure and isn’t just a "random walk" driven by chance.
  • #2,513
  • Mar 10, 2025 10:23am Mar 10, 2025 10:23am
Quoting oculus
{quote} What is **just one** example of "amateur vodoo" knowledge applied? You can find countless examples of TA or quant analysis applied to speculative trading. Can you provide just one example so that we can understand this vague thing? I see it's a different way to approach and to think about markets, but possible to provide just one example so that maybe one can follow that path? How do you develop "applicable wisdom"?
Oculus, only as my name was dragged in - what *have* you been looking at for the past 3 years? Pi? Origins of candlesticks? Expected trajectories divided into 6 (3 up 3 down)? All decent avenues of research to name but three.
This is the esoteric end of trading where ideas are shared but not mathematical proofs. You wouldn't publish proofs either if you'd spent years researching. And sometimes I get the impression that people think the job of a trader is to simply execute, when that's the most trivial, tiniest part of the job.
  • #2,514
  • Mar 10, 2025 12:40pm Mar 10, 2025 12:40pm
How to recognize a newb fooled by randomness?
Air force
  • #2,515
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:45pm Mar 10, 2025 2:45pm
Quoting AntiCre
The only question that remains for me is what the horizontal lines represent and how they were placed where they are found! But I'd be more interested in the theoretical framework behind the system than trading it.
Hi AntiCre. Not sure if this has gotten much attention in the past, maybe on purpose... just in case, I'm posting it for everyone. I'm sure the screen will look familiar... except we're on MT4 here.. maybe someone will want to create an indicator or two

The horizontal lines can easily be a reference between the upper and lower screen, I have a couple of theories, this was partly confirmed by CP himself. Also attaching his screen for reference. Maybe there would be more to say, but it is still an indicator after all...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,516
  • Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Hi AntiCre. Not sure if this has gotten much attention in the past, maybe on purpose... just in case, I'm posting it for everyone. I'm sure the screen will look familiar... except we're on MT4 here.. maybe someone will want to create an indicator or two The horizontal lines can easily be a reference between the upper and lower screen, I have a couple of theories, this was partly confirmed by CP himself. Also attaching his screen for reference. Maybe there would be...
My theory is that these horizontal lines are some thresholds derived by statistics. Kind of like RSI 70-30. You can take a MACD, look at the frequencies and see like 70% (arbitrary) of times MACD is lower than this value. But the problem is that it's not constant, it can change over time, just like the average size of a candlestick. From what I see CP kept those levels constant over the years. So if the value at the percentage 70 (example) changes over time it's not useful to have a fixed value line.

Someone has better theory?
  • #2,517
  • Mar 10, 2025 4:30pm Mar 10, 2025 4:30pm
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Hi AntiCre. Not sure if this has gotten much attention in the past, maybe on purpose... just in case, I'm posting it for everyone. I'm sure the screen will look familiar... except we're on MT4 here.. maybe someone will want to create an indicator or two The horizontal lines can easily be a reference between the upper and lower screen, I have a couple of theories, this was partly confirmed by CP himself. Also attaching his screen for reference. Maybe there would be...
I’m pretty sure NASA has less data on their screens when launching a rocket. Whoever made this chart, are they trading or trying to decode the Matrix?
  • #2,518
  • Edited Mar 11, 2025 4:49am Mar 10, 2025 7:51pm | Edited Mar 11, 2025 4:49am
Hi guys, great discussion that's been ongoing for years now.

I want to point out one important word.

Single.

CP claimed he can see the edge in a single candle. He claimed professional traders can see the edge in one single candle.

Focus your discussion on how to see the edge in a single candle. One candle. It's not about another candle or about other candles around it. Just this one candle.

In the context of live trading, it's about seeing the edge in this current candle right now. Just this current one candle.

There's clear purpose why CP wrote it this way.
Perhaps a redirection of the discussion back to CP's original single candle claim may help you guys.

If the discussion is about multiple candles, then it's talking something else. Such talk has deviated from what CP wrote.

Cheers.

Why do CP and the professional traders see edge in a single candle?

What's so great about a single candle?

Why not a bunch of candles, or the usual candlestick patterns?

Are we surprised CP trades a single candle?

A single candle implies each and every single candle, there's no selection.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,519
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:15pm Mar 10, 2025 11:15pm
Quoting BWilliam
Hi guys, great discussion that's been ongoing for years now. I want to point out one important word. Single. CP claimed he can see the edge in a single candle. He claimed professional traders can see the edge in one single candle. Focus your discussion on how to see the edge in a single candle. One candle. It's not about another candle or about other candles around it. Just this one candle. In the context of live trading, it's about seeing the edge in this current candle right now. Just this current one candle. There's clear purpose why CP wrote...
Yes, a single closed candle can contain enough information to predict the direction of the next candle with remarkable accuracy. I won’t post historical cherry picked examples right now, even though they’d help filter out and add to my growing list of trolls to ignore. Instead, I’ll focus on sharing upcoming examples so there’s less doubt in general. Thanks for the reminder, I’m looking forward to revisiting this method since I’d forgotten it was one of my favorites. It’s one of the easiest methods since it’s just a matter of analyzing different price levels within a single candle, beyond just the typical prices.
  • #2,520
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:23pm Mar 10, 2025 11:23pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Yes, a single closed candle can contain enough information to predict the direction of the next candle with remarkable accuracy. I won’t post historical cherry picked examples right now, even though they’d help filter out and add to my growing list of trolls to ignore. Instead, I’ll focus on sharing upcoming examples so there’s less doubt in general. Thanks for the reminder, I’m looking forward to revisiting this method since I’d forgotten it was one of my favorites. It’s one of the easiest methods since it’s just a matter of analyzing different...
Very interesting, want to see more , and learn
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