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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,941
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:22pm Jul 30, 2007 1:22pm
Info
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 30July2007.zip   636 KB | 1,754 downloads
  • #5,942
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:38pm Jul 30, 2007 1:38pm
The following is a Wordpad copy of Phillip's first lesson on risk management for those who have difficulty understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Phillip Nel- Risk Management 1- Written copy.zip   2 KB | 1,970 downloads
  • #5,943
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:38pm Jul 30, 2007 2:38pm
Lets see if the 21 holds it down, I am going to say yes Currently flat. 2 pips away from my 705 call this am. Could be a short, going to wait for Macd to go red and have 3-4 bars building resistance at the 705 level before I do anything.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #5,944
  • Jul 30, 2007 2:55pm Jul 30, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info

Do you have a chart you can post with the fib's on it? I know about fibs I just never used them on a chart.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #5,945
  • Jul 30, 2007 4:03pm Jul 30, 2007 4:03pm
Wordpad copy for those who have trouble understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Phillip Nel- Risk Management 2- written copy.zip   3 KB | 1,826 downloads
  • #5,946
  • Jul 30, 2007 4:27pm Jul 30, 2007 4:27pm
Hey Guys
This is not exactly ontopic but more of a general thing, but maybe you can find anything wrong on my trade today.

http://www.rocketrider.de/audusd.jpg

I went long in AUD/USD on the candle which has the lowest low in this chart. To that time price was just above the 365 SMA. Before that there was already a bullish engulfing pattern and the MACD had formed a roundbottom and there was already a green line in it. Because all candles closed above the SMA I figured that there is a good possibility that this is a bottom and got in with a TP at the 200 SMA (+~100 Pips).
I thought a lot of possible stop fishing moves under the SMA so I chose a SL 30 Pips under the 365 SMA. Though I did this I still got stopped out. I have a problem taking that big of stop losses because I never know how far the stop fishing move is about to run. As I know now, I would have been right going long there....Now the question
Do you have any strategy against such moves?

Maybe someone can help me with this
Thanks ....
Chris
  • #5,947
  • Jul 30, 2007 5:17pm Jul 30, 2007 5:17pm
Wordpad copy for those who have trouble understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Phillip Nel- Daily Wrap Up- 30July2007 written copy.zip   2 KB | 808 downloads
  • #5,948
  • Jul 30, 2007 6:26pm Jul 30, 2007 6:26pm
Quoting Catwatch
Hey Guys
This is not exactly ontopic but more of a general thing, but maybe you can find anything wrong on my trade today.

http://www.rocketrider.de/audusd.jpg

I went long in AUD/USD on the candle which has the lowest low in this chart. To that time price was just above the 365 SMA. Before that there was already a bullish engulfing pattern and the MACD had formed a roundbottom and there was already a green line in it. Because all candles closed above the SMA I figured that there is a good possibility that this is a bottom and got in with a TP at the 200 SMA (+~100 Pips).
I thought a lot of possible stop fishing moves under the SMA so I chose a SL 30 Pips under the 365 SMA. Though I did this I still got stopped out. I have a problem taking that big of stop losses because I never know how far the stop fishing move is about to run. As I know now, I would have been right going long there....Now the question
Do you have any strategy against such moves?

Maybe someone can help me with this
Thanks ....
Chris
Hi Chris,

I don't know the exact numbers on your chart...but your trade looked great! I have 1 question, did you consider the low of the doji a few candles before your trade when you placed your stop? I usually will place my stop below a level, add in a spread and a fudge factor to give it some wiggle room. So, if
that doji's low was above your stop level you had a good chance of being stopped (easy for me to say after the fact). Since you were lookinng ahead, and thinking about the possibility of stop running, did you consider placing a limit order that would be executed at a better price which would allow you to have a smaller stop but still be below the doji's low?

Since you were essentially picking a bottom of the A/U move, a tight stop was very smart! Your trade was great. Did you have Support lines drawn on the chart before your trade was executed? were the lines above your stop level? This is another factor to consider when figuring the stop -- levels of support that we have identified on our charts and that are most likely areas of stops that are being targeted.

Hope this makes sense....sorry that the stop was hit; your plan was very nicely done!

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #5,949
  • Jul 30, 2007 9:18pm Jul 30, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting Catwatch
Hey Guys
This is not exactly ontopic but more of a general thing, but maybe you can find anything wrong on my trade today.

http://www.rocketrider.de/audusd.jpg

I went long in AUD/USD on the candle which has the lowest low in this chart. To that time price was just above the 365 SMA. Before that there was already a bullish engulfing pattern and the MACD had formed a roundbottom and there was already a green line in it. Because all candles closed above the SMA I figured that there is a good possibility that this is a bottom and got in with a TP at the 200 SMA (+~100 Pips).
I thought a lot of possible stop fishing moves under the SMA so I chose a SL 30 Pips under the 365 SMA. Though I did this I still got stopped out. I have a problem taking that big of stop losses because I never know how far the stop fishing move is about to run. As I know now, I would have been right going long there....Now the question
Do you have any strategy against such moves?

Maybe someone can help me with this
Thanks ....
Chris
And that is why I use Bill Willians AO and wait for close on green, it's a great filter with the macd. You would not of lost here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bw.gif Size: 19 KB
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #5,950
  • Jul 31, 2007 12:04am Jul 31, 2007 12:04am
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
As we are anticipating a short move from euro, but the news are coming out. What do you guys will react? Let's say the short signal fullfil, news coming out in an hours time? Are you all going to short or stay put?
  • #5,951
  • Jul 31, 2007 1:35am Jul 31, 2007 1:35am
Quoting OldDog
Wordpad copy for those who have trouble understanding spoken English.


OLDDOG thanks for Wordpad copy
  • #5,952
  • Jul 31, 2007 5:16am Jul 31, 2007 5:16am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Chris,

. So, if
that doji's low was above your stop level you had a good chance of being stopped (easy for me to say after the fact). Since you were lookinng ahead, and thinking about the possibility of stop running, did you consider placing a limit order that would be executed at a better price which would allow you to have a smaller stop but still be below the doji's low?

Pips
Hey Pips
Thanks for your answer
My stop was a few pips under the lowest low of the to that point created doji. It was already more than 30 pips away from my entry so I was afraid of moving it any further down. My tp was 100 pips over my entry (btw. already reached now) so a SL of 50 pips would still have been ok in terms of Risk/Reward Ratio, but I was afraid of loosing that much money.
I am now thinking about getting in with just half a lot, so I can take a wider SL and maybe addon the other half if the trade goes into my direction...

Regards
Chris
  • #5,953
  • Jul 31, 2007 7:21am Jul 31, 2007 7:21am
GBP/ USD. Price went trough 89 and now back to 21, so far moving in rythem according to rules. now from here either a TC with a bounce of 21 down or a zero break up thru the 21. price in between 89 and 200 MA. If short target could be 200 and if breaks 21 then ?????.Euro already broke 21 and now come back to it and sitting there. News in 10 min for usd so price is currently stalled in anticipation of the news. Lets see what the market shows us. Hopefully a nice setup for a good trade.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,954
  • Jul 31, 2007 9:22am Jul 31, 2007 9:22am
Quoting Catwatch
Hey Pips
Thanks for your answer
My stop was a few pips under the lowest low of the to that point created doji. It was already more than 30 pips away from my entry so I was afraid of moving it any further down. My tp was 100 pips over my entry (btw. already reached now) so a SL of 50 pips would still have been ok in terms of Risk/Reward Ratio, but I was afraid of loosing that much money.
I am now thinking about getting in with just half a lot, so I can take a wider SL and maybe addon the other half if the trade goes into my direction...

Regards
Chris
You can not trade in fear or without money to lose, you are starting at a 80% chance at losing. I know I did the same thing lost over $30,000 when I would stop out quick over and over or let EMOTION get me. Look at the charts use a 1:1 stop if the risk is too high pass the trade. If you go back and look at my trades I posted you see my risk is say 30 my gain is 45+. If you do that and win 50% you make money, now what if you win 7 and lose 3? Now lets talk about how you are trading, you sound like you are trading too heavy or w/o the cash. If you can not lose 30-40 trades you need to stop now and save up because you will be trading in fear, why not paper trade?
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #5,955
  • Jul 31, 2007 9:24am Jul 31, 2007 9:24am
Quoting shauny
As we are anticipating a short move from euro, but the news are coming out. What do you guys will react? Let's say the short signal fullfil, news coming out in an hours time? Are you all going to short or stay put?
I don't play the news because the risk is too high, ya you may win a few but why not play when it's slower and you have more time to react? If you want to have a heart attack stick with the news trades.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #5,956
  • Jul 31, 2007 10:14am Jul 31, 2007 10:14am
Quoting Ryanmcd
I don't play the news because the risk is too high, ya you may win a few but why not play when it's slower and you have more time to react? If you want to have a heart attack stick with the news trades.
I agree with you I lost 7 % of my account by news trading but thanks Phillip's system I still survive .
  • #5,957
  • Jul 31, 2007 10:33am Jul 31, 2007 10:33am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Now lets talk about how you are trading, you sound like you are trading too heavy or w/o the cash. If you can not lose 30-40 trades you need to stop now and save up because you will be trading in fear, why not paper trade?
Actually I'm papertrading. The above posted trade was done on a demo account, so there was no real money involved. But I treat this "play"money like real money to achieve the most realistic outcome on this whole papertradething . However I see no mistake in the wish to protect my money, while doing a countertrend trade.
Below the low of the doji there were no support lines I could make use of and I even think such stopfishing moves do not care a lot about these lines because it is price action which is produced by just a few people which lots of financial power with the aim just to get the stops and make money with it.
  • #5,958
  • Jul 31, 2007 10:53am Jul 31, 2007 10:53am
Quoting Catwatch
Actually I'm papertrading. The above posted trade was done on a demo account, so there was no real money involved. But I treat this "play"money like real money to achieve the most realistic outcome on this whole papertradething . However I see no mistake in the wish to protect my money, while doing a countertrend trade.
Below the low of the doji there were no support lines I could make use of and I even think such stopfishing moves do not care a lot about these lines because it is price action which is produced by just a few people which lots of financial power with the aim just to get the stops and make money with it.
Did you have your stop and target in mind before you entered the trade? If you got stopped out and stuck to your rules it's okay, lots of times they run out the stops and you knew that, look at the close of the bar before you close a trade unless it's really hammering against your. It's hard to say what works and it's more of a feel and how much you have traded.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #5,959
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:02am Jul 31, 2007 11:02am
Wordpad written copy for those who have difficulty understanding spoken English. You are always welcome, Alex III.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Phillip Nel- Weekly Anticipation- written copy.zip   186 KB | 789 downloads
  • #5,960
  • Jul 31, 2007 11:06am Jul 31, 2007 11:06am
Quoting Ryanmcd
You can not trade in fear or without money to lose, you are starting at a 80% chance at losing. I know I did the same thing lost over $30,000 when I would stop out quick over and over or let EMOTION get me. Look at the charts use a 1:1 stop if the risk is too high pass the trade. If you go back and look at my trades I posted you see my risk is say 30 my gain is 45+. If you do that and win 50% you make money, now what if you win 7 and lose 3? Now lets talk about how you are trading, you sound like you are trading too heavy or w/o the cash. If you can not lose 30-40 trades you need to stop now and save up because you will be trading in fear, why not paper trade?
Hi Ryanmcd....thanks for sharing your story & it sounds like you have gained some very valuable lessons from the experience....Yet, I absolutely disagree w/your 80% chance of losing statement. If one practices their system by backtesting, is extremely disciplined upon entering, manages their trade properly (by their proven method), then they should have a much better win expectency than the 20% you imply. & if you are having 30 losing trades in a row, you need to stop trading and practice the method by papertrading and backtesting. I absolutely agree w/your point on trading fearful....it is impossible to trade rationally and make good business decisions when we are scared to lose or HAVE to win. The focus should always be on trading well....which means planning your trade...when will you enter, why will you enter, what is your s/l, what is your tp, and (something often overlooked) when will you move to BE. Hope you don't mind the comments

Happy trading,

Pips
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