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  • #2,441
  • Mar 4, 2025 5:20am Mar 4, 2025 5:20am
Now finally some good discussion.

Dear blob, yes you might be right. My judgments about CP could have been too harsh or completely wrong. I'll keep doing my best to make it in this profession and I hope that some day I'll come back here and see things in a different light. I'm young and I have much to learn about everything. And sometimes I'm too pretentious, I recognize that.

Anyway blob, why don't you share more, maybe less cryptic stuff?


One last thing: please everyone ignore ilhas, he's known to be a scammer. He post his calls and delete them if they were not good. If you write to him he'll entertain you a bit and then ask for money. Stay away from him.
  • #2,442
  • Mar 4, 2025 6:10am Mar 4, 2025 6:10am
I am playing with zigzag legs the last years.
My zzLegs are minimum 10 pips and I record until it expands, till new leg with 10 pips occur. So median zzLeg is ~ 17.5p, average ~20p.
Than I recorded how many retracements with minimum 50%(5p) where:
All zzLegs: 359584;
0 retracements zzLegs: 207644. 57.7% 5p retracement gets to new 10p Zz.
1 retracements: 86093. 56.7% will be new zzLeg.
>=2 retracements: 65847.
So this stats shows, that with every retracement, the new zzLeg to be made has bigger probability. I tested bigger zzLegs, and get always >50%. But when you add spread, than there are no pips. When there are no pips, then you need to increase your lotSize on every trade. And then the problem is, when trend is heavy, it can be >15 50% retracements and you are with 0 in your account.
I have also stats to trade always in trend direction with risk management. But there are no pips also, and you get in heavy consolidation, where you lose money.
I test my system with 20 year tick data and always there are market conditions where you lose your account.
So, you can be profitable only if you have a system with positive pips. I've done hundreds of systems and cannot get any with positive pips in 20 year data.
  • #2,443
  • Mar 4, 2025 6:16am Mar 4, 2025 6:16am
Quoting oculus
Now finally some good discussion. Dear blob, yes you might be right. My judgments about CP could have been too harsh or completely wrong. I'll keep doing my best to make it in this profession and I hope that some day I'll come back here and see things in a different light. I'm young and I have much to learn about everything. And sometimes I'm too pretentious, I recognize that. Anyway blob, why don't you share more, maybe less cryptic stuff? One last thing: please everyone ignore ilhas, he's known to be a scammer. He post his calls and delete them...

Delete???
Let me entertain you a bit. I will call one more for you. After it hits the target. DM me, I will entertain you there.
Looks like you’re one of the many account holders.
Continue with solving cryptic stuffs. Good luck to you in next 10 years solving the puzzles at FF
  • #2,444
  • Mar 4, 2025 10:42am Mar 4, 2025 10:42am
Just for you
Continue your good discussion
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  • #2,445
  • Edited 12:58pm Mar 4, 2025 12:32pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting oculus
Now finally some good discussion. Dear blob, yes you might be right. My judgments about CP could have been too harsh or completely wrong. I'll keep doing my best to make it in this profession and I hope that some day I'll come back here and see things in a different light. I'm young and I have much to learn about everything. And sometimes I'm too pretentious, I recognize that. Anyway blob, why don't you share more, maybe less cryptic stuff? One last thing: please everyone ignore ilhas, he's known to be a scammer. He post his calls and delete them...
Hi oculus,

I can fully understand what you wrote. Because: Crucialpoint’s posts were often sensationalized and contained statements that, upon closer inspection, simply couldn’t be true (like the way he described he'd be made money with roulette). And if you pointed this out to him, you would quickly find yourself under attack.

On the other hand, I can just as well understand the people who defend him. Over the years, while following my own path - though clearly motivated by what CP wrote (yes, I'm grateful for this) - I've made some “discoveries” that seem to confirm his ideas in some way. I've shared many of these observations also here on FF. For example, following the candlestick analogy, I found that the Open, High, Low, Close, and Median naturally bring up a six-“dimensional” structure of price movement. Or that the expectation of larger price moves is more closely linked to random price movements than the prediction of smaller moves (chos theory and the collapse of long-term predictability in trading).

So in the end, it's all good. The takeaway? Maybe this: CP may have initially intended to help people with his posts, but the way he wrote - leaving so many questions unanswered - ended up costing people time rather than bringing them financial independence.
  • #2,446
  • Mar 4, 2025 6:06pm Mar 4, 2025 6:06pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} PRICE MOVEMENT IS NOT PREDICTABLE! That's why nobody can make good calls consistently. You can enter almost whenever you like (as can be seen in hindsight). What's important is when to get out. And nobody can ever tell you in advance when to get out. Why? Because they react to price. That was my point. And that's also the reason why no one makes live calls (@Ihlas). {quote} So, here's my point (only my own perception). I'd never say this is how it is and that this is the only and absolute truth. Everyone doing this either has mental problems...
I don’t understand why this isn’t obvious to more people. If the markets were truly random, no one would be able to make money consistently because there would be no patterns, no structure, and no edge to exploit. A random market would mean every price movement is completely independent of the previous one, making it impossible to develop a strategy that works over time.

A profitable edge exists because price follows patterns driven by human behavior, liquidity, and market mechanics. If no edge existed, no trader, hedge fund, or algorithm would ever be profitable in the long run. Yet, traders consistently make money, proving that the market has structure and is predictable to some extent.

Look at my TradeExplorer as a simple example. If the market were truly random, my results would be no different from flipping a coin, and my wins and losses would even out over time. But that is not the case. I'm consistently profitable because I've identified repeatable patterns that give me an edge.

Before you start claiming fake brokers, fake accounts, or fake TradeExplorer, keep in mind that TradeExplorer only pulls data from legitimate broker servers. You would know that if you had ever used TradeExplorer. To address any further doubts in advance, yes, I trade live. The demo is just for testing.

If you want similar results, you either have to study on your own or ask questions from people who have verified results instead of following someone who has no proof of profitability but is popular on ForexFactory.
  • #2,447
  • Mar 4, 2025 6:41pm Mar 4, 2025 6:41pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote}If the markets were truly random, no one would be able to make money consistently because there would be no patterns, no structure, and no edge to exploit. A random market would mean every price movement is completely independent of the previous one, making it impossible to develop a strategy that works over time.
Don't agree on this point. Randomness also leaves patterns that can be exploited ... See here for an example. Nothing new and nothing special.

Quoting Th3W1z4rd
A profitable edge exists because price follows patterns driven by human behavior, liquidity, and market mechanics.
Wouldn't be so confident on this point. Tbh, I haven't found any patterns that are clearly human-driven. But could be, of course. I mean the whole market of course depends on humans' actions, but do they leave pattern? I repeat: For me, the market behaves likes a random walk on average in all quantities that I've surveyed so far.

And a last thing: I hope that all people here are adult. Thus, they should decide themselves whether they want to spend time on something written here by someone. For instance, I enjoy to read many threads and thinking about new ideas and theories - every outstanding idea or mathematical realtionships in the markets get my attention and I love to spend hours in re-analyzing what people have written and to check whether their and my own theories can be confirmed with data. Thus, I'd never say it's wasted time. It's like a hobby. I'm more interested in finding theories behind all this than on making money. (Of course not the typical trader ...)

Nevertheless, a nice post on point to the discussion!
  • #2,448
  • Edited 7:04pm Mar 4, 2025 6:44pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} I don’t understand why this isn’t obvious to more people. If the markets were truly random, no one would be able to make money consistently because there would be no patterns, no structure, and no edge to exploit. A random market would mean every price movement is completely independent of the previous one, making it impossible to develop a strategy that works over time. A profitable edge exists because price follows patterns driven by human behavior, liquidity, and market mechanics. If no edge existed, no trader, hedge fund, or algorithm...
Quote
If the markets were truly random, no one would be able to make money consistently because there would be no patterns, no structure, and no edge to exploit. A random market would mean every price movement is completely independent of the previous one, making it impossible to develop a strategy that works over time.
Well, that's completely false. truly/falsely random
Price has stochastic nature.
I don't want to dive too deep and write novels here, briefly:
If you generate synthetic tick-data, then compose it into candles (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15111019), you'll find there every single pattern, known and unknown.
And I'm quite sure, real and synth will have ~same periodicity of those patterns (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15126933)



Quote
A random market would mean every price movement is completely independent of the previous one
I would like to see statistical tests conclusions on actual data from you. E.g. daily candle type: dependent or independent from previous one?
Air force
  • #2,449
  • Mar 4, 2025 7:08pm Mar 4, 2025 7:08pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Don't agree on this point. Randomness also leaves patterns that can be exploited ... See here for an example. Nothing new and nothing special. {quote} Wouldn't be so confident on this point. Tbh, I haven't found any patterns that are clearly human-driven. But could be, of course. I mean the whole market of course depends on humans' actions, but do they leave pattern? I repeat: For me, the market behaves likes a random walk on average in all quantities that I've surveyed...
I took a quick look at the post you mentioned, and I saw the condition that "The data must be stationary and symmetrically distributed around the E(X)."

This condition has a big flaw. Stationary data means that its key properties, like the average and how much it fluctuates, don't change over time. Some trading models, like mean reversion, depend on this. But real financial markets don't work this way.

Markets constantly change. Trends shift, volatility goes up and down, and major events like policy changes or economic crises shake things up. The idea that markets stay in a stable state where their key stats do not change is simply not true. Even if there are short periods where the market seems stable, they don't last. Strategies that rely on this assumption are weak and will eventually fail.

The idea that returns are symmetrically distributed around the average also doesn’t match reality. Stock markets tend to rise over time because of growth and inflation. Currencies follow economic policies and interest rate differences, leading to long trends instead of balanced movements. Commodities go through supply and demand cycles, which also create trends rather than symmetric price moves.

Momentum is another issue. Many assets keep moving in the same direction for a while because of investor behavior, institutional trading, and large scale trends. If returns were truly balanced around the average, momentum strategies would not work, but they do.

The claim that data in financial markets must be stationary and symmetrically distributed just doesn’t hold up. Markets are always changing due to economic and political events. Returns are not balanced or predictable, and trading costs alone can wipe out any theoretical advantage from these assumptions.
  • #2,450
  • Mar 4, 2025 7:21pm Mar 4, 2025 7:21pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} {quote} Well, that's completely false. truly/falsely random Price has stochastic nature. I don't want to dive too deep and write novels here, briefly: If you generate synthetic tick-data, then compose it into candles (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15111019), you'll find there every single pattern, known and unknown. And I'm quite sure, real and synth will have ~same periodicity of those patterns (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15126933) {quote} I would like to see statistical...
That doesn't prove anything about real market behavior. Just because synthetic data can generate every possible pattern doesn't mean those patterns generated from synthetic data have predictive value in real trading. Real market prices are influenced by supply and demand, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and institutional order flow, none of which exist in synthetic data. Comparing random price simulations to actual market structure ignores the key factors that drive price movements.
  • #2,451
  • Mar 4, 2025 7:22pm Mar 4, 2025 7:22pm
Financial markets are not stationary, and returns are not symmetrically distributed. Prices change due to economic events, policy shifts, and investor behavior, making any strategy based on those assumptions unreliable.
  • #2,452
  • Mar 4, 2025 7:46pm Mar 4, 2025 7:46pm
I want to explain this with an analogy. Synthetic price data and real market price action are like a simulated relationship versus a real one. In a simulation, everything might look the same. You go through the motions, see familiar patterns, and get predictable responses. But in a real relationship, emotions, experiences, and outside factors constantly change things in ways you cannot predict or control. Just like real price action is shaped by buyers, sellers, news, and economic events, a real relationship is shaped by feelings, chemistry, and life circumstances. No matter how real a simulation looks, it will never have the real world forces that actually make it real.
  • #2,453
  • Mar 4, 2025 7:52pm Mar 4, 2025 7:52pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} That doesn't prove anything about real market behavior. Just because synthetic data can generate every possible pattern doesn't mean those patterns generated from synthetic data have predictive value in real trading. Real market prices are influenced by supply and demand, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and institutional order flow, none of which exist in synthetic data. Comparing random price simulations to actual market structure ignores the key factors that drive price movements.
1. Just because synthetic data can generate every possible pattern doesn't mean those patterns generated from synthetic data have predictive value in real trading.
Like why? Does 'real' patterns have prognostic value? HP/candles/fibs/supply-demand/all of that TA. Any research?
Well, at least part of this statement is gone:
Quote
no one would be able to make money consistently because there would be no patterns
patterns in synthetic data exists now, only 30 min passed.

2. Real market prices are influenced by supply and demand, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and institutional order flow, none of which exist in synthetic data.
a. Really? Of course it's impossible to incorporate spreads, market depth, slippage, volatility clusters, etc. into model.
There are advanced models around (even w/ synt order book); GANs, GARCH, Fama-French, etc
b. Even simple tick modelling produces good results, you can't distinguish real from fake

Some trading strategies rely on statistical tendencies rather than fundamental drivers. If synthetic data correctly replicates key statistical properties - I don't need anything else.

So what with 'real' daily candle type: dependent or independent from previous one?
Air force
  • #2,454
  • Mar 4, 2025 8:23pm Mar 4, 2025 8:23pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} 1. Just because synthetic data can generate every possible pattern doesn't mean those patterns generated from synthetic data have predictive value in real trading. Like why? Does 'real' patterns have prognostic value? HP/candles/fibs/supply-demand/all of that TA. Any research? Well, at least part of this statement is gone: {quote} patterns in synthetic data exists now, only 30 min passed. 2. Real market prices are influenced by supply and demand, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and institutional order flow, none of which exist in synthetic...
To be honest, I don't want to waste time going back and forth in discussions that don't really lead anywhere. In this business, a TradeExplorer is like a resume. It shouldn't take much time or effort to set up a demo and place some trades on it. That would add some credibility to what you're saying, making it worthwhile to analyze and discuss properly. Right now, it's just a lot of words, and anyone can say a lot of words, including me. If someone's interested in collaboration, my SimpleX Chat contact is on my profile. I'm not here to waste time on pointless debates that don’t really lead anywhere. I'm sure I could have put that more nicely, but I wanted to be direct.
  • #2,455
  • Mar 4, 2025 8:47pm Mar 4, 2025 8:47pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} That would add some credibility to what you're saying, making it worthwhile to analyze and discuss properly. Right now, it's just a lot of words, and anyone can say a lot of words, including me.
Comically, your demo doesn't add credibility to false points I highlighted.
Best of luck
Air force
  • #2,456
  • Mar 4, 2025 8:58pm Mar 4, 2025 8:58pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Comically, your demo doesn't add credibility to false points I highlighted. Best of luck
Comically, you seem to think that not having a TradeExplorer is somehow more credible than having one. Words alone prove nothing because, as you might realize, everyone has words. Results, on the other hand, actually carry weight. If you’re confident in what you’re saying, put it to the test on demo. Otherwise, this is just empty talk. Best of luck.
  • #2,457
  • Mar 4, 2025 9:08pm Mar 4, 2025 9:08pm
Don't argue with mr. Credible 3 week old demo acc, guys.
He'll destroy you logically and morally
Air force
  • #2,458
  • Mar 4, 2025 9:19pm Mar 4, 2025 9:19pm
Quoting W0lfram
Don't argue with mr. Credible 3 week old demo acc, guys. He'll destroy you logically and morally
Is your logic really that pathetic, or are you just desperate to avoid reality? Do you actually believe the only trades I've ever taken are from this specific three week demo? A TradeExplorer is at least something measurable, unlike the absolute nothing you're bringing to the table. You're throwing opinions around like they matter, but without results, you're just another loudmouth with nothing to show. If you had anything real to back up your claims, you’d have shown it by now. But you haven’t. And you won’t. Because you can’t.
  • #2,459
  • Mar 4, 2025 9:33pm Mar 4, 2025 9:33pm
Quoting W0lfram
Don't argue with mr. Credible 3 week old demo acc, guys. He'll destroy you logically and morally
Please, keep going. Every word you type just makes it clearer that you have absolutely nothing. You mock a TradeExplorer, yet you offer zero proof of your own claims. That’s not logic, that’s cowardice. You act like words alone prove something, but they don’t, results do. And right now, the only measurable fact in this entire discussion is that I’ve shown something, and you’ve shown nothing.

Logically, if you had anything real to back up your words, you would have proven it by now. But you haven’t. Because you can’t.

Morally, you’re just another empty voice throwing opinions around, hoping nobody notices you’re standing on nothing. If you had even a shred of integrity, you’d either back up your claims or admit you have nothing to show.

So go ahead, keep wasting your time. It’s all you’ve got.

I’d be willing to bet I have a higher mathematical degree than you, if you even have one, Mr. W0lfram. Care to put that to the test? If not, then STFU.
  • #2,460
  • Mar 4, 2025 9:38pm Mar 4, 2025 9:38pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote}You're throwing opinions around like they matter, but without results, you're just another loudmouth with nothing to show.
I didn't express a single opinion, that were facts

Quote
Is your logic really that pathetic, or are you just desperate to avoid reality? Do you actually believe the only trades I've ever taken are from this specific three week demo?
psss.. no one give a shit about it.
Best of luck

edit: Actually, you sound like it's your first week in business and demo acc you have inherited from someone. - My first opinion here
Air force
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