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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,421
  • Feb 26, 2025 12:31pm Feb 26, 2025 12:31pm
Quoting oculus
{quote} The only problem is that the knowledge he shared is useless....I just applied objective analysis to what he teached
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It may sound pedantic, but without truly understanding and defining the ins and outs of a problem one encounters, then how can it be objectively solved? How could anyone solve a problem that is either misunderstood or incomplete?

Btw, this is regards to anything trading related and <not> in relation to CP (or anyone else for that matter).

Quoting blob
{quote} So no one knows his indicators. No one knows his trading system. No one knows how he trades. Because they have never been disclosed. So what were you analyzing and testing, claiming his work is rubbish???

Such an eloquent paradox
  • #2,422
  • Feb 28, 2025 5:16pm Feb 28, 2025 5:16pm
Quoting oculus
So... The website wasn't generating any income, indeed he closed it. Anyway why would a millionaire try to make money with a stupid blog? why would a millionaire care about leverage in cfd products? Why would a milionarie trade at all with cfd? I would not put a single penny on a cfd broker, let aside multiple millions. When you have millions you trade futures for a number of reasons, period. Putting millions on fxcm makes me laugh.

...no friends, no family members, anyone at all post a photo with you? That's sad.

...guy that needed some attention....
You make a lot of incoherent assumptions.

You're not a millionaire because you don't think like one.
Why assume that a millionaire, thinks like you?
Why assume that a genius, thinks like you?
Reading from your previous posts, you will assume my questioning as an insult to you. Not knowing the differences between painful honesty, being honestly frank about cold hard truths versus derogatory remarks/insults.

I'm sorry to tell you (and this community) that,
"CrucialPoint is merely just a reflection of your own personalities."

You all painted CP yourself, to your own personal biases.

The people who hated CP painted him as,
"A narcissistic ego-maniac with a superiority god complex. Seeking attention by having divine mystic and cryptic secrets that he dangles to those beneath him. A self proclaimed guru millionaire who insulted people whoever questions his mighty throne of awesomeness."

Meanwhile, the down to earth people painted him as,
"Just another person online who shared some of his stuff. Someone private with boundaries and didn't interact much. He shared some mind boggling stuff that changed people's perspective and made an impact on their trading journey. He wrote in analogies and metaphors to explain his ideas. Whether he was a millionaire or not, people acknowledged his self proclaimed success or they simply ignore that part (because that's what healthy mature people do). People didn't put him on a pedastool or guru status. He trolled his haters, whilst his haters were clueless of being trolled."
  • #2,423
  • Mar 1, 2025 12:49pm Mar 1, 2025 12:49pm
Having Fun with AI

Focusing on the bottom section of the image, we can break it down further based on the different lines, colors, and patterns present. Here’s what I can infer:

1. Different Line Colors and Their Possible Meanings
The chart contains several colored lines, each representing a different technical indicator or computed value. Here’s a breakdown:

  1. White Line (Smooth and Curved)

    1. This could be a moving average (such as a Simple Moving Average - SMA or Exponential Moving Average - EMA).
    2. It smooths out fluctuations and shows the overall trend of the indicators.

  2. Blue Line (Jagged and Reacts Strongly to Movement)

    1. This may be a momentum-based indicator, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Rate of Change (ROC).
    2. Its sharp movements indicate fast price changes.

  3. Orange Line (More Gradual but Still Volatile)

    1. This could represent volatility or a lagging indicator (e.g., Bollinger Bands, MACD signal line).
    2. It follows price fluctuations but with a delay.

  4. Thin Black or Dark Green Line (Background, Hard to See Clearly)

    1. Might represent raw price data or another smoothed trendline.

2. Horizontal Lines (Red, Orange, and Blue)
There are multiple horizontal lines in the chart. These likely serve as thresholds or key levels, such as:

  1. Red Lines – Possibly overbought/oversold thresholds (like RSI at 70/30) or important support/resistance levels.
  2. Orange Lines – Could indicate midpoints or signal levels for certain computations.
  3. Blue Dashed Lines – May represent neutral zones or equilibrium levels where the market is balanced.


3. The Yellow Highlighted Oval on the Right

  1. The yellow oval on the far right emphasizes a specific range.
  2. This suggests that certain values are converging or reaching a significant point.
  3. It might indicate a crossover, a signal for trade execution, or a point of maximum divergence.

4. Interpretation of This Section

  1. This is not a standard technical indicator setup—it looks custom-made for a quantitative analysis system.
  2. The combination of momentum, trend, and volatility indicators suggests it could be part of an automated trading system.
  3. The text at the bottom right:
    "Here are you scale for everything. Any other computation are visual landmarks."

    1. This suggests that the values have been normalized or rescaled for comparison, meaning absolute values might not matter as much as relative changes.

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  • #2,424
  • Mar 1, 2025 4:54pm Mar 1, 2025 4:54pm
Quoting treigaini
Having Fun with AI
...made for a quantitative analysis system
Did you know just 10years ago, AI only had around 5 reference points for facial recognition.
Today, there's like around 80-100 reference points for facial recognition.

Can you imagine having 5 reference points versus having 80 reference points at the palm off your hand?
... I'm just saying

Just in the last 5 years, machine learning has surpassed its expectations; Its advancement in the last 5 years was a blackswan event. If trading was hard before AI, the competition have even gotten stronger.
  • #2,425
  • Mar 1, 2025 5:02pm Mar 1, 2025 5:02pm
Quoting Neio
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick." ""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post4690034 So there is an edge within a single candlestick. There are higher probability...
This statement is mathematically trivial. Most of the time, a candle’s closing price is different from its opening price. But it doesn’t give any clue about direction, so it’s not useful for predicting whether price will go up or down. It also isn’t helpful on its own because knowing that price won’t close exactly at the open doesn’t help with trade timing.
  • #2,426
  • Mar 1, 2025 6:34pm Mar 1, 2025 6:34pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} This statement is mathematically trivial.
I appreciate your skepticism, but you're seem quite closed off mentally to the possibility of value here and thus not looking at this clearly.

If you use the candle close and the next candle open as a marker, as a level(s) from which and by which you measure and judge price movement, then it is very nearly the holy grail. Not quite the holy grail, but satisfyingly close for those who do the work and the study to uncover the edge.

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Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote}Most of the time, a candle’s closing price is different from its opening price. But it doesn’t give any clue about direction, so it’s not useful for predicting whether price will go up or down.
Trading is not at all about predicting whether price will go up or down. You don't need to know what's going to happen next in order to make money, as Mark Douglas always said, which is very good, because no one, no matter what method or system knows what is going to happen next with any certainty.

Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} It also isn’t helpful on its own because knowing that price won’t close exactly at the open doesn’t help with trade timing.
Once you accept that you don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money, "timing" matters significantly less than you think it does.

Replace "timing" with levels and money management, and timing takes care of itself.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #2,427
  • Mar 1, 2025 7:28pm Mar 1, 2025 7:28pm
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You seem to have deleted your post while I was responding. I'm glad I took a screen shot of it while working on my reply.

Real trades from Thursday of this week.

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Friday of this week.

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Not cherry picked. Trades from the most recent two trading days. M30 candles, work the close/open. I still have a day job. I might always keep that day job, who knows? But I know of what I speak here. A long number of years and thousands of hours in these two posts of mine. It didn't have to take this long, for a long time I was like you: I thought I knew it all even when I really knew nothing. I thought trading must be some esoteric activity the key to which is buried beneath inscrutable arcae formulae. Maybe I could find the special indicator that will "predict" price action with certainty? lol

Once I gave up that quest, it opened my mind to price itself. But that alone wasn't enough. I didn't really accept the risk, accept the inevitability of losses, and I still acted as though I did need to know what was going to happen next in order to make consistent money trading. It was actually a recent epiphany that allowed these scales to fall from my eyes and truly move forward.

You forex guys go on and on about your "trade explorers" this and your "darwinx" that's. You are blind to a wide open world of futures traders, retail guys like me, not "market makers" or quants or HFT's - just regular, down in the trenches blue collar traders trading exchange listed futures contracts whose results are highly profitable. We have no need for trade explorerers or darwinx because we are not trading for ego, we are trading for money. We share what we share not because we are looking for praise or hoping to grow a large social media following or (god forbid) become a commercial FURU vendor of commercial trading content. We share because the road to success is almost entirely mental. We've been through the grind. We still fight the grind. And we feel that we are all in this together. We share to help, not to compete.

We eat what we kill, and we are not looking to build an FF following that we can monetize through sub fees. Trading, especially day trading, is extraordinarily hard because psychologically we are not by nature built for it. We share because we seek to build one another up, not tear down so we can stand on top of the dismembered corpses of others and shout "Look at me and my trade explorer!"

Anyway, there is an incredible edge on all bar durations of 15 minutes and higher using the previous bar's close and the current bars open as levels by which and from which to measure and jusge price action. Fact.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #2,428
  • Mar 1, 2025 7:36pm Mar 1, 2025 7:36pm
Quoting vidvad
{image} You seem to have deleted your post while I was responding. I'm glad I took a screen shot of it while working on my reply. Real trades from Thursday of this week. {image} Friday of this week. {image} Not cherry picked. Trades from the most recent two trading days. M30 candles, work the close/open. I still have a day job. I might always keep that day job, who knows? But I know of what I speak here. A long number of years and thousands of hours in these two posts of mine. It didn't have to take this long, for a long time I was like you: I thought...
Yes, I deleted it because I didn’t want to go back and forth, but I’ll say this one last thing. You’re saying a lot, but the best way to prove it is to post a TradeExplorer. Otherwise, it’s just talk, and no one knows if you’re cherry picking or only showing part of the picture. If you have something real to show, do it with a TradeExplorer. Anything else is just noise, and anyone can make noise.
  • #2,429
  • Mar 1, 2025 7:43pm Mar 1, 2025 7:43pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Yes, I deleted it because I didn’t want to go back and forth, but I’ll say this one last thing. You’re saying a lot, but the best way to prove it is to post a TradeExplorer. Otherwise, it’s just talk, and no one knows if you’re cherry picking or only showing part of the picture. If you have something real to show, do it with a TradeExplorer. Anything else is just noise, and anyone can make noise.
Trade explorer with easily manipulated MT4 demo account data? No thank you.

You misunderstand me. I'm not here to prove anything. I am here to share what I've learned. I'm real world. Real money. I posted here to counter what I believe are inaccurate statements regarding the potential edge to be had from collecting open/close data and applying it to the candles without any additional indicators. That's what a forum is about. You, on the other hand, seem to have joined FF a couple of months ago to farm for what? Subs? Investors?
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #2,430
  • Mar 2, 2025 2:42am Mar 2, 2025 2:42am
Boys, what's going on here?

Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} This statement is mathematically trivial. Most of the time, a candle’s closing price is different from its opening price. But it doesn’t give any clue about direction, so it’s not useful for predicting whether price will go up or down. It also isn’t helpful on its own because knowing that price won’t close exactly at the open doesn’t help with trade timing.
Absolutely correct. But as banal as it may sound, it tells us one thing: the price will move. And from this movement, we can glean valuable insights into the state of the market. I strongly encourage you - and everyone else - to study how price moves. View a specific period of price activity as a candlestick and analyze what you can generally expect:
a. How far does the price move within this range?
b. How much does it retrace within this range?
c. Is there a correlation between a. and b.?

A candlestick has four reference points, but for trading, only three of them are typically relevant. Why should you care of the lowest price if price shoots up and then retraces a bit? Is there any relevance of that low to you right now? Hence, three reference points.

From my personal observation, price behavior resembles a random walk. However, the market is still exploitable by following price movements. Ultimately, it’s more important to know when to exit a trade than when to enter one. In that sense, I agree with CP.
  • #2,431
  • Mar 2, 2025 3:05am Mar 2, 2025 3:05am
Quoting AntiCre
Boys, what's going on here? {quote} Absolutely correct. But as banal as it may sound, it tells us one thing: the price will move. And from this movement, we can glean valuable insights into the state of the market. I strongly encourage you - and everyone else - to study how price moves. View a specific period of price activity as a candlestick and analyze what you can generally expect: a. How far does the price move within this range? b. How much does it retrace within this range? c. Is there a correlation between a. and b.? A candlestick has four...
Saying "price will move" is just stating the obvious, not proving an edge. Movement alone doesn’t make price action predictable or tradable in a way that consistently makes money. You talk about studying price ranges, retracements, and correlations, but where’s the actual proof that any of this leads to a repeatable advantage?

Your argument about only three reference points mattering is also arbitrary. Just because a low doesn’t seem important in one case doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant in all cases.

And saying price looks like a "random walk" but is still "exploitable" contradicts itself. Either there’s a real pattern to take advantage of, or there isn’t. If the market is truly random, then no edge exists. If it’s not, then prove it with a TradeExplorer.

At the end of the day, theories don’t matter, results do. If you believe in what you’re saying, trade it, put it on TradeExplorer. As far as I can see, I’m the only one with a TradeExplorer.
  • #2,432
  • Mar 2, 2025 3:13am Mar 2, 2025 3:13am
Let’s make a just one live call. Enough talks.
  • #2,433
  • Mar 2, 2025 3:58am Mar 2, 2025 3:58am
Reverse engineering CP system, even if you roughly have his indicator+settings is even harder than designing this complex system in the first place.

Its like having a 50.000-piece jigsaw puzzle, with same cutout and no view of the final picture at all!

How do you go about such project?

If you think CP has already painted that picture, you are setting yourself for long term disappointment. While gracious enough, it is hardly a rough, initial draft.

The only way you can actually work this out, knowing that it requires even larger effort than designing it from scratch, is this:
You can't start by matching 2 pieces and then look all the rest 49998 for the next matching piece. It will take forever.
You start working on parallel clusters of matching pieces, no matter how chaotic it seems.

And at the same time you have to work your way to elevating the draft to a full working model picture.

There simply is no other way. If you think to yourself, "I am better than this can't be that hard, all I need is ONE working setup, I already put together 300 pieces of the puzzle, I have downloaded the real TSI indy etc". Be my guest.
Just don't appear here cursing you lost 3 years of your life over a line. You are so past the line, the line is a dot to you.
  • #2,434
  • Edited 3:50pm Mar 2, 2025 4:11am | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting Th3W1z4rd
{quote} Saying "price will move" is just stating the obvious, not proving an edge. Movement alone doesn’t make price action predictable or tradable in a way that consistently makes money.
PRICE MOVEMENT IS NOT PREDICTABLE! That's why nobody can make good calls consistently. You can enter almost whenever you like (as can be seen in hindsight). What's important is when to get out. And nobody can ever tell you in advance when to get out. Why? Because they react to price. That was my point. And that's also the reason why no one makes live calls (@Ihlas).

Quoting Th3W1z4rd
You talk about studying price ranges, retracements, and correlations, but where’s the actual proof that any of this leads to a repeatable advantage? Your argument about only three reference points mattering is also arbitrary. Just because a low doesn’t seem important in one case doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant in all cases. And saying price looks like a "random walk" but is still "exploitable" contradicts itself. Either there’s a real pattern to take advantage of, or there isn’t. If the market is truly random, then no edge exists. If it’s not, then...
So, here's my point (only my own perception). I'd never say this is how it is and that this is the only and absolute truth. Everyone doing this either has mental problems nor understood how science works (you can never prove something right - you can only prove it wrong).

But you make a good point here: In the candlestick analogy, a low can certainly be relevant - but in my personal opinion, only if you change your observational frame.

Here’s a trading analogy: Imagine you want to travel as far north as possible. You’re standing on a rail (point A), and you know where north is. So, you jump on a train when one heading north passes by. But eventually, the train slows down, stops (that equals your high), and then starts moving in the opposite direction (south).

(Everyone would make it to a particular point traveling this way. However, it is extremely hard to break down into steps applicable to trading, isn't it?)

My point is this: How long do you stay on the train, hoping it will change direction again and continue north? When do you jump off and wait for the next train? And does it really matter how far the train traveled south before it arrived at point A (which represents the low)? I don’t think so.

The key question is: How do you determine how much the price can retrace (move south) before you should exit? Here’s my observation: Price exhibits a certain level of noise (others might call it vibration; but that would then go back to Gann and other esoteric concepts). Even when price shoots up 10 pips in one minute, it still vibrates (retraces) - as seen, for example, in the lower wick of a candle (but of course also in its upper wick). But since there isn’t an infinite amount of money in the market, there has to be a relationship between the open-close (OC) range of a candle and the magnitude of its retracement. And interestingly, the average ratio of movement to retracement in a random walk appears to be identical to that of the market (but to measure this, you have to chose an observational frame, i.e. an price update period).

That’s all I was trying to say. I never claimed this would always work or that it had any predictive power. For me, the market isn’t any more predictable than a random walk (not at all imho). However, some of my experiments suggest that trading profitably is possible using a logic based on the core idea of this post.

And I'd say showing a trade explorer matters less than a good theory. You can have a lot of luck and thus a beautiful equity curve pointing up. But at one point ... Just use an EA run it on different periods and you get your beautiful curve sometime. But it takes more to invalidate a solid theory based on logic.
  • #2,435
  • Mar 2, 2025 7:04am Mar 2, 2025 7:04am
Quoting Ihlas
Let’s make a just one live call. Enough talks.
I believe no one make it happen… Be it…
Might be early exits; but you can see it yourself.
I will update. No worries. Let’s see what we can do from here.
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  • #2,436
  • Mar 2, 2025 3:55pm Mar 2, 2025 3:55pm
Quoting chriseel
Just don't appear here cursing you lost 3 years of your life over a line.
Bro lost 3 years of his life over a line.

Unbeknownst to him, people spend 10yrs 20yrs 30yrs all their life in the pursuit of success and dreams.
There are people here on the forum more than 10yrs endlessly in pursuit of their goals.

The media is to blame, brainwashing people into thinking that success are easy. The media presents successful people as if they had very little to no struggles. Most people don't realize that nearly all successful people are borderline in depression. It takes a heavy big toll on one's psychological health... because success is abnormal. You can't be successful being the average, being so called "normal".

But hopeful bro finds his way and grow. And to the countless of people in pursuit of their own goals and dreams. Because it is not a easy road traveled.
  • #2,437
  • Mar 2, 2025 6:52pm Mar 2, 2025 6:52pm
Quoting blob
{quote} Bro lost 3 years of his life over a line. Unbeknownst to him, people spend 10yrs 20yrs 30yrs all their life in the pursuit of success and dreams. There are people here on the forum more than 10yrs endlessly in pursuit of their goals. The media is to blame, brainwashing people into thinking that success are easy. The media presents successful people as if they had very little to no struggles. Most people don't realize that nearly all successful people are borderline in depression. It takes a heavy big toll on one's psychological health......
I get what you’re saying, and I agree. Real success takes time, effort, and a level of commitment that most people aren’t willing to endure. The idea that success comes easily is definitely a lie the media sells. The reality is that the process is exhausting, frustrating, and mentally draining.

I don’t regret the time I’ve spent on this because every failure, even the expensive ones, adds to the bigger picture. If it takes years to truly master something, so be it. That’s how anything worthwhile works.

Respect to those who keep pushing forward, despite how tough it gets. This business isn’t easy, but that’s what separates those who make it from those who don’t.
  • #2,438
  • Mar 3, 2025 2:12am Mar 3, 2025 2:12am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} I believe no one make it happen… Be it… Might be early exits; but you can see it yourself. I will update. No worries. Let’s see what we can do from here. {image}
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  • #2,439
  • Mar 3, 2025 12:05pm Mar 3, 2025 12:05pm
Quoting AntiCre
Boys, what's going on here? {quote} Absolutely correct. But as banal as it may sound, it tells us one thing: the price will move. And from this movement, we can glean valuable insights into the state of the market. I strongly encourage you - and everyone else - to study how price moves. View a specific period of price activity as a candlestick and analyze what you can generally expect: a. How far does the price move within this range? b. How much does it retrace within this range? c. Is there a correlation between a. and b.? A candlestick has four...
Are you talking about the range of the current candle or the one preceding?
  • #2,440
  • Edited Mar 4, 2025 12:52am Mar 3, 2025 3:22pm | Edited Mar 4, 2025 12:52am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Are you talking about the range of the current candle or the one preceding?
Define a "range", for instance the last 1000 ticks. Then, with every new tick you create a new candlestick summing up the last 1000 ticks. then, we only analyze this current candlestick. (Vist my profile, view the images I've posted and the last few posts you see there are somewhat around this topic, start for instance here. The core is imo to know how much retracement you can expect in a trend within a particular frame; If you're aiming for 40 pips you'll get most certanly kicked out of your trade if you set your stop to just 1 pip. Ask yourself instead: How "long" does it take for price to make 40 pips on average and how much retracement can I expect within that frame ...)
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