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Attachments: DOW - PA, Stops and hedging
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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #801
  • Edited 7:23am Feb 26, 2025 6:56am | Edited 7:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Renko 150 M1 2025-02-26 145407.png Size: 74 KB

so far good short and one long renki brick 150 (15 points)
all multi entry positions
earning declaration AMC

note for my friend b.....
reversal of the short pointed by 9, of TDcount on renko and a bounce from the close proximity to the Fib channel on M1


Currently poss angulation on renko - it has not happened
Instead second TD count started up and is in progress, in accordance with MT|F and M1- a move towards the upper fib channel
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #802
  • Feb 26, 2025 8:00am Feb 26, 2025 8:00am
Mixed signals atm
taking it easy and having a break - otherwise I will hit the SL, better not to overtrade
solid moves well indicated before and during the US session
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #803
  • Edited 3:20pm Feb 26, 2025 10:23am | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting 2be
Mixed signals atm taking it easy and having a break - otherwise I will hit the SL, better not to overtrade solid moves well indicated before and during the US session
well, just came back and seen DOW drop.
Nothing surprising, when things have not happened on the session H, market got a bit of a nose dive
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MN30 sessions 2025-02-26_225805.png Size: 84 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Renko M5 01 2025-02-26_230218.png Size: 86 KB

the reversal patterns on renko, if not penetrated in the immediate trend direction, spells reversal

it can be a single bar reversal
it can be a two be reversal
It can be a multiple bar reversal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW renko 2502025-02-26_231753.png Size: 91 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #804
  • Feb 26, 2025 7:28pm Feb 26, 2025 7:28pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DF2025-02-27_032600.png Size: 91 KB


if the PA breaks out of the current range, Mon/Tue next week shall be time to seriously consider Longs
so far Fib 50% has been reached
61.8 is waiting below, which is an important Fib zone
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #805
  • Feb 27, 2025 5:47am Feb 27, 2025 5:47am
Daily perspective is important, likewise perspective provided by NYSE sessions bars is also very important
one needs to organise charts so they are helpful, and that demands some work
DAW cash continuous is good for some things, and session candles are useful in other aspects

If not focussed and careful I seem to pay too much attention to the last few candles, that is a common human dilemma to focus on the immanent to the deprivation of the longer time perspective
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #806
  • Feb 27, 2025 11:52am Feb 27, 2025 11:52am
Quoting 2be
{image} if the PA breaks out of the current range, Mon/Tue next week shall be time to seriously consider Longs so far Fib 50% has been reached 61.8 is waiting below, which is an important Fib zone
DOW has been very busy, pump and dump - traded both ways
very choppy at times, few good rides
the zones that I usually use for possible intra day rotations were observed, but not without testing
The move up on intra day TA, move down in relation to the earlier posted daily chart with the fibs
Having well deserved
good profits, over 80 trades, 78% positive trades, some with smaller losses
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #807
  • Edited Feb 28, 2025 12:15am Feb 27, 2025 1:08pm | Edited Feb 28, 2025 12:15am
The DOW daily chart allowed me to be confident shorting DOW from the session H, in conjunction with the normal things I use

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-02-27_211924.png Size: 90 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW H4 DT 2025-02-27_211841.png Size: 63 KB


PUMP & DUMP


scalping hard during the US session, well over 100 trades, well under 20% losing trader, two hitting the SL, which was the largest loss
With over 80% of winners it proved to be well profitable trading session
the pump - on the news release re tariffs -contrarian move, Longs to the upper level of fibs channel
the dump - after that channel has been reached by the longs, rotation to the short side in place in accordance with the daily chart posted above

Renko set to 25 points per brick
Chart to the right of renko is DOW M5, with shaded session bar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF 2025-02-27_210139.png Size: 185 KB


Renko brick set to 15 points
M1 - DOW's tango to the upper fb band on M1, surpassed it a bit, second retest, failure to touch it and down baby down to the lower fib band
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M1 renko 150 2025-02-27 211040.png Size: 159 KB


I have mentioned it so so many times, here it comes again
on M1 that faint upper and lower lines, Fibs channel of EMA100, these Fibs line extremities often worn of a possible rotation
I personally find that FIB channel very useful, along the other things I use
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #808
  • Feb 28, 2025 3:15am Feb 28, 2025 3:15am
DOW is dancing well b4 us open
Gap to the last session close. printing Diversion On M15
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #809
  • Feb 28, 2025 6:37am Feb 28, 2025 6:37am
first shorts of the session covered, from the session's H to the last session close
just over 130 points in a fast move, standard static part of my strategy
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #810
  • Edited 7:02am Feb 28, 2025 6:46am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting 2be
first shorts of the session covered, from the session's H to the last session close just over 130 points in a fast move, standard static part of my strategy
after the gap has been closed and PA stays above that last session close, it might indicate a bias to the long side, only after the upward momentum stalls and there is an exhaustion signs in place I would consider shorting
for now longs to the FB band upper limit
That is how DOW likes to dance, in the old times, US session close on FX pairs acted similarly when years ago i traded FX
it was then that I have developed US session close indicator with buffer zones
US session close has also been important in the way I traded FX
have gone long to the pivot, closed long for good points, fast moves
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #811
  • Edited 9:22am Mar 3, 2025 8:16am | Edited 9:22am
todays move south from the session H to the last session close, around 200 positive points
D Pivot not reached
trading both ways,
will go long if the lower ADR is reached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF 03 2025-03-03_172006.png Size: 167 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #812
  • Mar 3, 2025 11:54am Mar 3, 2025 11:54am
DOW is going for the L retest on Daily
Waiting for the rotation on H4 in the direction of the Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-03-03_200242.png Size: 99 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #813
  • Mar 3, 2025 1:12pm Mar 3, 2025 1:12pm
Quoting 2be
DOW is going for the L retest on Daily Waiting for the rotation on H4 in the direction of the Daily {image}
DOW hit 61.8 FIB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 03 2025-03-03_211326.png Size: 96 KB


Set for possible longs tomorrow
Tariffs might be a factor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTFs 05 2025-03-03_210942.png Size: 183 KB

Renko brick set to 25 points
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #814
  • Edited 3:20am Mar 5, 2025 2:50am | Edited 3:20am
DOW Daily
At the possible rotation level (on time or late )
It looks like Impulsive move down, when accomplished FIBs can be drawn
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-03-05_104844.png Size: 85 KB


Dow H4 Fibs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW H4 Fibs 2025-03-05_110920.png Size: 94 KB


DOW MTFs
on the right is DPW M30 with US sessions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTFs Sessions 2025-03-05_105514.png Size: 101 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #815
  • Edited Mar 6, 2025 1:10am Mar 5, 2025 1:09pm | Edited Mar 6, 2025 1:10am
Rotation in progress

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-03-05_210703.png Size: 81 KB


MTF's ready for tomorrow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF 03 2025-03-05_210826.png Size: 109 KB


Below Reko brick set to 25 points and M15
part of the day's PA on renko
It pays to be patient and observant, renko with MTFs analysis is very useful
The day has been reacting to tariffs news, but nevertheless renko procession from brick to brick makes sense
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Renko 250 M15 2025-03-05 215123.png Size: 81 KB


Renko with boxes, every possible rotation box has been shaded
Numbers are T DeMark counts, counts to 9 bars, only completed runs of the 9 bars stay on the chart, not completed runs are without the numbers
4 bricks is 100 points
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Renko 250 boxes 2025-03-05 220345.png Size: 66 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #816
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:09am Mar 6, 2025 2:09am
Seasonality - March story
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW seasonality 2025 2025-03-06_095730.png Size: 54 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P E-Mini Seasonality 2025 2025-03-06_100548.png Size: 73 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Index seasonality 2025 2025-03-06_100443.png Size: 68 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX Seasonality 2025 2025-03-06_100220.png Size: 53 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #817
  • Edited 3:01am Mar 6, 2025 2:49am | Edited 3:01am
It looks that DOW is in its March mood as the last 20 years data suggests
That means volatile behaviour, and shorter measured moves for intra day trading, that on top of the current tariffs and war scenarios

Serious gap to the last session close, in the region of 1%, DOW might struggle to fill such a big gap, it might be a dead cat's bounce" for a while
I have confusing signals, might be a difficult session to trade, relying on momentum on intra day TFs
Tempted to give it a miss.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #818
  • Mar 7, 2025 1:25am Mar 7, 2025 1:25am
Hello guys,

I am a beginner who's been trying from last 2 years, i hope to learn from you guys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2025-03-07 145329.png Size: 188 KB
  • #819
  • Edited 8:54am Mar 7, 2025 8:06am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting jajuharaman
Hello guys, I am a beginner who's been trying from last 2 years, i hope to learn from you guys. {image}
I do not know the security, TF - making this chart an enigma to me - sorry
I trade DOW almost exclusively, every security has some specific patterns of behaviour
This US session provided first reliable trade - LONG from the open to the last session close, and to the daily pivot, followed by reaction from the proximity to the upper fib channel (EMA100) on M1 (traded on momentum - more risky than the first trade)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW US session 2025-03-07 161044.png Size: 166 KB

PA in the box atm
Being Fri - one needs to be careful - news, tariffs, war ect
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #820
  • Edited 9:48am Mar 7, 2025 8:21am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting 2be
{quote} I do not know the security, TF - making this chart an enigma to me - sorry I trade DOW almost exclusively, every security has some specific patterns of behaviour This US session provided first reliable trade - LONG from the open to the last session close, and to the daily pivot, followed by reaction from the proximity to the upper fib channel (EMA100) on M1 (traded on momentum - more risky than the first trade) {image} PA in the box atm Being Fri - one needs to be careful - news, tariffs, war ect
I am not focussed well enough to trade atm, have had a good day so far - so a break to protect myself from overtrading

President to speak soon, then Mr Chairman . It might be a very busy PA
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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