EURUSD only

What strategy do you use, I am starting to understand this supply and demand strategy. Im looking at the 1.4200 level, I shorted until the 1.3900 area. I am asking if it is a good idea to continue looking for sells because I don't know if you guys see any buying opportuniities. Is the 1.4200 a supply zone? cause it seems marekt prices keeps droopping around that area.

so... browsing this entire forex factory for like 2 hours straight i now understand what mkjenna said..... ye is sad and yes it's hard to accept this truth for newbie who bumped into online trading in 2025 like me but anyway ideas and stories which i found here were quite helpful for me, maybe ill use some of dem in my path later. TYTY guys, have a great evening/day/whateva..
UPD: I got that this place is not for newbies. I won't continue to post here before i wil have enough skill to contribute. Thanks anyway guys!

My strategy is 20 years of staring at charts. I use SMA200 because I'm getting old and it's harder to keep track of things, but that's all I'm using. Other than that I just go where the market wants to go.

To give you an answer to your question though: I don't see us in a short term bear scenario anymore, but I have been wrong more times than I care to remember.

Don't let me dissuade you, I'm a cynic and a very bitter middle aged white male.
Just keep at it. Take every loss and (even more importantly) every win as a learning point. Eventually, you'll start seeing it.

Meanwhile, on H4...

I am calling it a day folks.. but before I go, please keep this chart in mind..

1. We are bullish BUT wait for a proper dip into latest breakout level: ~1.0357-ish.
2. I will try to go long there by catching bullish signs on smaller timeframes...

I hope it helps...

Peace out...

My friend.. This place is not meant for newbies..

We are not teaching here.. We discuss technicals and try to trade EURUSD as good as we can.. That's all..

Please visit page 1 of this thread to understand the rules before posting...

Thanks in advance

kk, i will read page 1 right now, im sorry for hurrying, there are a lot of information im trying to get everything from everywhere...

Sure... Just keep this in mind: "Hurry" is THE biggest sin for a trader!

Best wishes

Where is my Trump volatility to make up for my sunk cost of not going long after the dip this morning? Stuck out of position below my triangle after some nice pips this morning from the drop. I got greedy... Would be lovely to see a collapse but bulls are really fighting that interest rate weakness. Any form of perceived future rate cut and Bulls will flood out of the gate.

How do you forecast the budget wrong...

Ok I understand.

Target area from upside area 1.042 reached
Observe 1.036 and 1.032 for possible long entry.
Close below 1.032 might open downside extension to 1.027 area

EURUSD looks chaotic on the M15 timeframe, yesterday the price formed a bullish candle with long wicks on both sides indicating market indecision. The price is still moving near the middle band, trying to cross the line from the downside. USD may still strengthen.

What happened to the EUR/USD market? Yesterday's CPI results exceeded expectations, which is a statement of strengthening for the US and high inflation, but why is EUR/USD experiencing bulls?

At this point 0450 awaiting tp. Meanwhile future cast h4 and higher tf
Took tp earlier than expected 0432. News later

A lot of the time things just don’t make sense with news. Just roll with the flow.

Trump and Putin began negotiating on Ukraine peace. This was expected, watchout for any related announcement, whenever peace is achieved (I'm not saying it's going to be necessarily soon), eur/usd is going to rally like you can't imagine. Even any rumour of a date for peace or ceasefire or anything like that will cause 500-1000 pip rally.

Once again, I am not suggesting this happens tomorrow or next week or even next month - but just watchout for this in the news, it will cause significant e/u movements.

Technical Analysis, Price Action & Key Levels

1. Current Price: Trading near 1.0455, approaching the critical resistance level of 1.0458.

Resistance Levels:

1. 1.0440, 1.0458, 1.0490, 1.0500:
2. 1.0530, 1.0575, 1.0600, 1.0624: Major hurdle.
3. Targeting 1.0575, 1.0624 if 1.0458 is breached decisively.

Support Levels:

1. 1.0397, 1.0378, 1.0365, 1.0355,1.0350: Immediate supports.
2. 1.0300,1.0290, 1.0270: Critical zone.

Fundamental Drivers:
Central Bank Policies:

1. ECB Dovishness: The ECB maintains rates at 2.90%, with weak Eurozone growth (Germany’s PMI at 42.5) pressuring the euro.
2. Fed Hawkishness: The Fed holds rates at 4.25–4.50%, supported by resilient U.S. labor data. Markets now price only a 40% chance of a 2025 rate cut post-CPI.

Economic Data:

1. U.S. CPI (Feb 12): Headline inflation rose 0.3% MoM, reinforcing Fed caution. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY, limiting EUR/USD upside.
2. Eurozone GDP (Feb 14): Weak growth forecasts (e.g., Germany’s potential recession) could renew bearish pressure.

Geopolitical Risks:

1. Trade Wars: Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum imports and threats against the EU/UK have fueled USD safe-haven demand. Retaliatory EU measures (e.g., counter-tariffs) remain a risk.
2. Middle East Tensions: Escalating conflicts bolster USD’s safe-haven appeal, capping EUR/USD gains.

Trump’s Statements & Impact:
Tariff Policies:

1. Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, aiming to curb migration and drug trafficking. These measures could disrupt supply chains, raise consumer prices, and strain EU-U.S. trade relations.
2. Market Reaction: Initial USD strength faded as markets downplayed near-term escalation risks. EUR/USD rebounded to 1.0450 on fading tariff concerns.

Dollar & Trade War Rhetoric:

1. Trump emphasized using tariffs to “protect American jobs,” which could sustain USD strength through 2025. However, retaliatory tariffs (e.g., Mexico’s threats) risk weakening USD long-term.
2. USD Outlook: Tariffs may generate $100B/year in federal revenue but risk stagflation, complicating Fed policy.

War & Geopolitical Stance:

1. While Trump hasn’t directly addressed military conflicts, his focus on trade wars and energy dominance (e.g., boosting U.S. oil exports) indirectly supports USD as a global reserve currency.

Long-Term Outlook:

1. 2025 Forecast: Median year-end target at 1.0500, contingent on Fed easing and EU recovery. Parity (1.0000) risks persist if structural weaknesses deepen.
2. Institutional Views: Analysts project moderate EUR/USD gains to 1.1275 if Fed cuts rates, but geopolitical tensions and Trump’s policies favor USD dominance.

Risk Management:

1. Monitor Fed speeches and EU GDP data (Feb 14) for volatility.
2. Position sizing should account for tariff-related whipsaws.

Quick H1 Outlook

1. So my friends... yesterday was dangerously fun and some of us gained well from turmoil.. Congrats to those
2. Now... After I left, some opportunities showed during Asian session and I could not trade those since my time zone is not aligned with it.. I marked the places where I would continue to go long with red arrows... The latest breakout (and buy) level was: 1.04105... As long as above it I stay bullish..
3. Please note that candles are swimming inside my red WEEKLY resistance zone... Meaning that bulls are still not out of the woods and we must be careful while below 1.0452-ish levels!
4. Overall, I will follow my hourly breakout logic and buy the dips towards 1.0400/10 area, but things can change, so I am inclined to trade mixed!
5. *On a side note: Please note how market went down right to my VOID anticipation level that I posted way before: here!

That's all for now...

Happy trading day folks

WHY is this bad for the USD???

I think He is not saying it is bad for USD.. He is saying it would be very good news for the EURO zone countries and therefore for EURO...