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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #10,121
  • Feb 10, 2025 11:00pm Feb 10, 2025 11:00pm
Hello Alan, i want to ask when did you move stop to BE ??
Your advice is " you should move BE as soon as possible" make me thinks i should move stop to BE after price attack EMA M5, but that is too soon.

In my case, for example, yesterday i short and i have target --> i make sure put stop = 1/2 target as pic below show.
My entry is while horizon line, when M5 in DIV and break 2 bar test and i entry few pips late here.
If price show it can't break EMA M5, i move to BE is too soon. But if i try to hold until bear support form, i will get BE, too.
Or should i just hold position like that and let thing work out ?
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  • #10,122
  • Feb 10, 2025 11:40pm Feb 10, 2025 11:40pm
Quoting eliotjng
Hello Alan, i want to ask when did you move stop to BE ?? Your advice is " you should move BE as soon as possible" make me thinks i should move stop to BE after price attack EMA M5, but that is too soon. In my case, for example, yesterday i short and i have target --> i make sure put stop = 1/2 target as pic below show. My entry is while horizon line, when M5 in DIV and break 2 bar test and i entry few pips late here. If price show it can't break EMA M5, i move to BE is too soon. But if i try to hold until bear support form, i will get BE, too....
I don't understand this, you have your trade upside down, it should be a long.

However, the average swing high is too close to warrant a decent trade, it was only about ten pips from your entry.

Don't just trade for trading's sake, look for those better opportunities then you have half a chance of winning the day.

In the case you show here, If the div doesn't break the EMA and find support then price will make the HH. So, we either just close the trade or move the stop.

This also tells you that if this is not breaking the EMA then you could trade long to make a HH than the div.

I also note you are not trading the London open which is where the best trading will happen.
  • #10,123
  • Feb 10, 2025 11:48pm Feb 10, 2025 11:48pm
Quoting prohaha
{quote} It means that you do not always follow the trading rules strictly? Sometimes, it may involve dipping your toes in the water, correct? If so, you must truly have great confidence in your trading abilities to get back on track.
Well, it can get quite boring, so it is nice to have a battle now and then but none the less the losses are tiny.
  • #10,124
  • Feb 11, 2025 1:22am Feb 11, 2025 1:22am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well, it can get quite boring, so it is nice to have a battle now and then but none the less the losses are tiny.
Get on 5min-HD with SL = EMA h1, TP = swinglow EMA h1
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  • #10,125
  • Feb 11, 2025 1:31am Feb 11, 2025 1:31am
Quoting prohaha
{quote} Get on 5min-HD with SL = EMA h1, TP = swinglow EMA h1 {image}
Maybe in bigger picture, Is there bull hd on h1? Get my order BE now and keep watching price action
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  • #10,126
  • Feb 11, 2025 3:04am Feb 11, 2025 3:04am
Quoting prohaha
{quote} Maybe in bigger picture, Is there bull hd on h1? Get my order BE now and keep watching price action {image}
It's not easy at all, stop out = BE because my bias was that price can make it lower so I didn't take profit at swing low EMA h1 as plan.
Lesson learned: It is important to follow the plan and react promptly to price action. Hedge or just close the trade.
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  • #10,127
  • Feb 11, 2025 7:32am Feb 11, 2025 7:32am
Still roasting hot here, Tomorow 44 degrees again. I spend most of the day trying to keep the plants alive and myself.
  • #10,128
  • Edited 8:49am Feb 11, 2025 8:27am | Edited 8:49am
Bout time we got back on the winners. Got my 2% today
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  • #10,129
  • Feb 11, 2025 10:17am Feb 11, 2025 10:17am
Quoting Nala66
Still roasting hot here, Tomorow 44 degrees again. I spend most of the day trying to keep the plants alive and myself.
Why not enjoy a few beers? They might not cool you off, but they can help you forget about the hot weather.
  • #10,130
  • Feb 11, 2025 11:12am Feb 11, 2025 11:12am
Quoting LFrZero
{quote} Why not enjoy a few beers? They might not cool you off, but they can help you forget about the hot weather.
don’t be so tight Alan. Spend some of your millions on an AC unit as we Need a cool head for trading.
  • #10,131
  • Feb 11, 2025 2:01pm Feb 11, 2025 2:01pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Bout time we got back on the winners. Got my 2% today {image}
Going thru my train of thought for todays trade. On the H1 at our trade time. We can see bull divergence at a previous EMA swing= heads up something might happen here. We are below the daily open so that might be a problem. My target looks good at 1.24083 (next EMA level up around 60 pips away)
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Drop to M15, again bullish divergence but holding off pushing the button just yet until I see some upward motion.
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Drop to M5. Again Bullish divergence and price testing the EMA. Lets go in with long punt target 60 so SL at 30 and see how it flies.
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Watching the M5 as prices approaches the H4 EMA i start seeing some bear divergence on the chart so decide to close out for +48
Account at BE this week so far after yesterday's loss.
  • #10,132
  • Feb 11, 2025 7:36pm Feb 11, 2025 7:36pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} decide to close out for +48 Account at BE this week so far after yesterday's loss.
Always the best option. Protection of the account is much more important than profits.
  • #10,133
  • Feb 11, 2025 10:22pm Feb 11, 2025 10:22pm
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Yesterday price just DIV bull at EMA swing H1 push price up, the move is lot more than i think . After check H4, the move is more clear as it also DIV bull and run straight EMA swing high.

Currently H1 EMA not finish HH yet, and ABCD show we still have room for move higher. But for now, H1 have DIV bear, which will bring price back to EMA (or beyond), so i'm will heavy on sell today.
  • #10,134
  • Feb 12, 2025 8:23am Feb 12, 2025 8:23am
Looks like our bias for a short based on H1 Bear divergence turned out to be correct. Got the timing of the short all wrong today with 2 losing tester trades.
Target the last H1 EMA below. Looks like the last H1 HD train was the one I should have got on
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We live to trade tomorrow. That big drop on dollar good news recovered my losses this week.
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  • #10,135
  • Feb 12, 2025 8:40pm Feb 12, 2025 8:40pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Looks like our bias for a short based on H1 Bear divergence turned out to be correct. Got the timing of the short all wrong today with 2 losing tester trades. Target the last H1 EMA below. Looks like the last H1 HD train was the one I should have got on {image} We live to trade tomorrow. That big drop on dollar good news recovered my losses this week. {image}
Just for those who don't understand this.

Here is the HD in question. (One of the best signals out there.)

To trade these, we place a pending short order below and well away from the price action. Then as the HD happens, we drag the order close to the action, so it is activated on the pull back. Our stop then goes just above the HD, in this case about ten pips. We are only risking 10 for a gain of 40.
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I have said many times in the past that we can make a good amount of money just trading this special signal. If I was to specialize in one signal, then this would be it.

20 degrees cooler today from being the hottest city on the planet. (I survived)
  • #10,136
  • Feb 12, 2025 10:57pm Feb 12, 2025 10:57pm
Ok, let have a review on yesterday trade. Look back, i said we still have some room for up move as we are not finish ABCD yet. I have buy but got scare and got out too soon.

When price finish ABCD target and in DIV bear, i short, move stoploss and hit BE by what Alan show us, a HD.
I'm not use another entry as i'm not comfortable to HD trade, most of my trade involve to HD get me stoploss. So i add a rule which: "If H1 HD and at that time, M15 DIV bear clear, i will entry." Pity it is not happen, so it BE day
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Let see, today chart, H1 have support bull. Clearly GU try for HH. We have 3 possible target, target 3 is AB=CD. I'm expect price may attack 5222
  • #10,137
  • Feb 12, 2025 11:10pm Feb 12, 2025 11:10pm
Quoting eliotjng
Ok, let have a review on yesterday trade. Look back, i said we still have some room for up move as we are not finish ABCD yet. I have buy but got scare and got out too soon. When price finish ABCD target and in DIV bear, i short, move stoploss and hit BE by what Alan show us, a HD. I'm not use another entry as i'm not comfortable to HD trade, most of my trade involve to HD get me stoploss. So i add a rule which: "If H1 HD and at that time, M15 DIV bear clear, i will entry." Pity it is not happen, so it BE day {image} Let see, today chart, H1 have...
Your blue triangle cannot be an ABCD because A and C are on the same side of the EMA. In this case it is just a regular continuation divergence.
  • #10,138
  • Feb 12, 2025 11:32pm Feb 12, 2025 11:32pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Your blue triangle cannot be an ABCD because A and C are on the same side of the EMA. In this case it is just a regular continuation divergence.
Thanks Alan, i will give another attempt ABCD then.

M15 give us 2 target, ABCD and EMA swing top at 2519

Also, do you even consider middle line (red line above) as potential resist/support point to trade?

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  • #10,139
  • Feb 12, 2025 11:32pm Feb 12, 2025 11:32pm
Quoting eliotjng
Ok, let have a review on yesterday trade.
Here is the correction to your chart...

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C is attacking A on opposite sides of the EMA.
We use B to form the triangle because X is in divergence with B.
Using the Quartile tool Y, we stretch it from B so the 50% is at A.
Copy and drag Z so the 50% is at C
Bingo D is hit.
  • #10,140
  • Feb 12, 2025 11:49pm Feb 12, 2025 11:49pm
Quoting eliotjng
{quote} Thanks Alan, i will give another attempt ABCD then. M15 give us 2 target, ABCD and EMA swing top at 2519 Also, do you even consider middle line (red line above) as potential resist/support point to trade? {image}
Of course I do. This is the C level so the Conflict area. Above it the bulls are winning. below it the bears are winning.

Also, in this case price is struggling at the R1 so I would just close and not worry about the last 5 pips.
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