EURUSD only

1. Current Price: Trading near 1.0359, consolidating after a slight decline from 1.0363 (Feb 12 open). Recent volatility includes a +0.59% gain on Feb 11 (1.0302–1.03806 range) followed by a -0.06% dip today.

1. Resistance Levels:
   1. 1.0367, 1.0370: Immediate resistance.
   2. 1.0400: Critical barrier (Psychological level).
   3. 1.0440: Next target if bullish momentum strengthens (Feb 5 high).
   4. 1.0530, 1.0575: Major resistance zone.

   
   

2. Support Levels:
   1. 1.0351, 1.0354: Short-term support.
   2. 1.0320, 1.0330, 1.0300, 1.0290, 1.0270, 1.0248: Key zones.
   3. 1.0275, 1.0220, 1.0239: Long-term bearish target.

Fundamental Drivers
Monetary Policy Divergence

1. Federal Reserve: Despite weaker-than-expected January NFP data (143K jobs vs. 170K forecast), elevated wage growth (4.1% YoY) and persistent inflation concerns have delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets now price in 46.3 basis points of cuts by December, with the first cut likely in June.
2. ECB: The ECB maintains a dovish stance, signaling potential rate cuts amid stagnating Eurozone growth and political instability. Executive Board member Piero Cipollone emphasized "room for adjusting rates downwards," contrasting sharply with the Fed’s cautious approach

Geopolitical and Trade Risks

1. US Tariffs: President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum imports and threats of further levies on EU goods (e.g., automobiles, pharmaceuticals) have heightened trade tensions. This risks exacerbating Eurozone deflationary pressures and weakening the euro.
2. EU Retaliation: Goldman Sachs warns the EU may retaliate with tariffs on US tech services, further clouding the outlook for EUR/USD

Economic Data

1. US Labor Market: While job growth slowed in January, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, and labor force participation rose to 62.6%, underscoring resilience.
2. Eurozone Weakness: German industrial production fell sharply in late 2024, and inflation remains subdued despite a recent uptick, limiting ECB flexibility.
3. Key Events to Watch:
   1. U.S. CPI Data (Feb 12): Expected to influence Fed rate-cut expectations.
   2. EU Q4 GDP (Feb 14): Weak data may exacerbate bearish pressure.

Conclusion
EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase on the H1 chart, balancing bullish technical signals (rising MA20/50, MACD crossover) against bearish fundamentals (Fed-ECB divergence, tariffs). Immediate direction hinges on 1.0351–1.0400, with a breakout likely post-U.S. CPI data. Traders should prioritize risk management, leveraging pivot points and key moving averages for strategic entries. While short-term rallies toward 1.0440 are possible, structural challenges in the Eurozone favor a bearish bias in the medium term.

1. Today I am focusing on 1.0401 area.. Will it resist or not?
2. No matter what, we probably stay above ~1.0333 and watch bulls trying again and again..
3. As a result: I will look more for selling the closer we get to ~1.0400/10... and more for buying the closer we get to ~1.0325/35...

Happy trading day to all

1. Waiting for bullish progress... No new breakout yet!
2. Nearest support sits at ~1.0345-ish area...
3. If support fails we the would be going lower to fill the void: ~1.0323 area... I leave that aside for now!
4. Focus on bulls and buying dips!

Best wishes