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The Pouria Method

  • #501
  • May 30, 2007 1:08pm May 30, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting lexazver
I just checked EURUSD ang GBPUSD and for the past 3 weeks there is at most 60% success rate, do you have other filters , like dont trade at particular time or during news announcements?
A backtest would not accurately guage this method as it relies on tading upon the cross of the MA's versus candle close. If you wait for close, you will get false signals.
  • #502
  • May 30, 2007 5:41pm May 30, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting currencytrader
bear,

read my message below about how I'm personally doing with forexexpert's system dude. I've only been trading for a total of 3 months now and this is the first time in my life I have never loss a trade!

A person, trading the european session and willing to trade the u.s session can easily average one trade daily with the eur/usd without issues and win every single time if going for only 10 full pips(7 pips profit after pip spread). And, I know for a fact that 95% percent of everyone that trades are dreaming of making 7 pips daily dude. That's 140 pips monthly and would allow me to double my account every single month without fail.

And, 140 pips monthly is so conservative until it's almost a sin.

peace,

hilton
currencytrader

Re: original system

Just to confirm the MACD entry: for short "MACD it has to be downward" Does this translate into "MACD it has to be <0" ? or just sloping downward?

Also, Do you enter as the MA crosses as you see it, or do you wait for the bar/candle close to confirm, and take the trade at the next candle open?
  • #503
  • May 30, 2007 6:01pm May 30, 2007 6:01pm
  •  Drphu
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Take2Trades and call me in Morning! | 31 Posts
I'll look into this more soon.

THX 4 sharing.
"Make Life's Reality a Dream Come True!" DrPhu
  • #504
  • Jun 4, 2007 5:42pm Jun 4, 2007 5:42pm
Hi,

Are people still having any success with this system.

ukcool
  • #505
  • Jun 4, 2007 6:01pm Jun 4, 2007 6:01pm
Quoting ukcool
Are people still having any success with this system?
I'd suggest that you widen the S/L's a little bit. Not a lot - just a bit. Maybe 5 pips. Experiment with it.

Then don't take every trade that's available. Use a little common sense, like trying to go with the trend rather than against it - unless there's a solid fade opportunity. See if you're in a channel of some sort, etc, etc...

Just be aware of where you are - which is much more important than a couple of lines crossing each other.

Frankly, I don't really use it. But I demo-ed it for a week or so and at one point had 15 winners in a row.

It's not the Grail, but it should make you much more money than you lose.

It's too bad that the author doesn't seem to be around any more.
  • #506
  • Jun 15, 2007 7:40pm Jun 15, 2007 7:40pm
Greetings, can I hear from some of you who have traded this for a long time, would you trade it anytime there is a cross, or use a time of day filter? Such as only trade NY or London session?

Thank you.
  • #507
  • Jun 17, 2007 7:30pm Jun 17, 2007 7:30pm
I've used this system and experimented with some other EMA crossovers. My best positive run was 139 trades and my second best positive run was 89. The more technical and analytical I get the shorter my positive runs are. I always return to this system for encouragement, confidence and to renew my foundations. Sometimes I think this is too simple so off I go looking into new ideas. This is a good place to start. Remember the traders goal is To Make A Profit.
  • #508
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:52pm Jun 18, 2007 12:52pm
Great job Asyi,

What set up do you use and what broker. Can this system be modified to work with the daily charts. It's hard to watch the PC all day long for a cross.

Any suggestions would be helpful

Thanks

Billser

Quoting asyi
I've used this system and experimented with some other EMA crossovers. My best positive run was 139 trades and my second best positive run was 89. The more technical and analytical I get the shorter my positive runs are. I always return to this system for encouragement, confidence and to renew my foundations. Sometimes I think this is too simple so off I go looking into new ideas. This is a good place to start. Remember the traders goal is To Make A Profit.
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #509
  • Jun 18, 2007 8:06pm Jun 18, 2007 8:06pm
First of all I'm a day trader but I only trade from 08:30 to around 13:00 EST on days that have news coming out. I check FF for whats coming up. Your right about the crossover of 75 & 85, they do take some time to develop. So what I do is set up a 5 ema on a 5 min chart and a 21 ema. One is yellow and the other green. My 75 & 85 are still red. I also throw in a 50 sma usually blue. The 5 and 21 has to cross the 50 if its a valid trade.

I trade off of a DealBook 360 platform from GFT. I have a live account with them but mostly I use their charts. I can see three to six at a time and switch to different time frames depending upon when the crossover took place. If I missed a 5 min crossover I'll look on the 15 to see if it is still valid. Some crossovers, depending upon the trend, can be valid all the way to a 4 hr and even daily chart. I execute trades on FXCM platform. I've been live with them for about three years. But, I never trade NFP. I also have a live account with Oanda I sometimes use.

OK. Your looking at the 5 min chart. You want to see a candle bridge the space between the 5 ema and the 21 ema. It must open and close touching the two emas in order for it to be a bridge. After you see the bridge, for the next five minutes, watch the 5 ema, it will cross the 21 either up or down. I'll enter the trade with a two or three pip confirmation on the next candle.

Now I'm looking for that 5 ema to head for the 50 sma and then cross the 75 and 85 with the 21 ema following right behind. I place a 9 pip stop loss on every trade. After a nice run of 10 pips I usually exit the trade and if the trade hasn't gone to at least 20 pips by 14:30 - I'm out.

But the trade may develope on the G/U, E/U, U/J, U/C or any pairs you care to monitor, sometime between 8:30 and 13:00. My goal is 20 pips a day but I'll vary my lot size depending upon other confirmations. My MACD is set at 6, 12, 9. My buy signal must be above 0. And a sell signal must be below 0.

I always trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Except for last week when I got real qute and shorted the U/J for a -130. I won't mention how many lots except to say I won't be doing that again. Hope this helps.
  • #510
  • Edited 10:28pm Jun 18, 2007 9:22pm | Edited 10:28pm
Quoting asyi
First of all I'm a day trader but I only trade from 08:30 to around 13:00 EST on days that have news coming out. I check FF for whats coming up.
Hey asyi,

Have you consistently hit your 20 pip target everyday using your system??

How much do you average a month. I'm trying to find a good way to trade
the New York Session.

Thanx
J. Stone
  • #511
  • Jun 19, 2007 6:37pm Jun 19, 2007 6:37pm
Hi Dunlop432,

Twenty pips off of crossovers on days that have better than expected or worse than expected news is usually no problem. Yesterday and today were non-news days on the New York open so I wasn't trading except for 5 pips I wrung out of U/J.

Here's are several ways to trade the New York open using a modified Pouria System. This is one someone sent me that I find works on New York News with the G/U. On a 15 min chart draw a line from the close of the 03:15 candle to the close of the 08:15 candle. That candle closes at 08:30 so that is when you would draw the line. Enter your trade at 08:45 in the direction of the 08:45 candle, I usually wait for about 2 pips to make sure of the direction. If the 08:30 candle is a doji - do not trade. If the 8:30 candle is over 50 pips do not trade. If the 08:15 and 08:30 candle are the same do not trade. If the spread of the 08:15 candle is 10 pips or less do not trade. At 08:45 when you enter your trade if the candle goes in the direction of the line you may be looking at quite a few pips. If nothing happens by 09:00 try to exit the trade at a break even point.

Next you want some kind of validation or confirmation. Go to a 5 minute chart and see if you have a bridge with a crossover, next look at your MACD using 6,12, 9 and see if there is a crossover. Your trade will go in the direction that all the confirmations are suggesting. Double check with a 12, 26, 9 and then check the trade with a MACD of 19, 39, 9 before closing, that will give you an exit signal. Do your looking on the 5 min but do your trading on the 15 min, this will help elliminate any whipsaw effect. Always know what your prevailing trend is and never trade against it.

Always backtest any system. And don't believe anything until you have proven it to yourself.
  • #512
  • Jun 20, 2007 5:12am Jun 20, 2007 5:12am
I'm a bit puzzled as to why this method uses 2 ma lines, the same colour.

Firstly, why two? Unless I am going to utilise the crossover as an aid I would only see the need for one. If I was going to use the crossover, then surely different colours would be more helpful?
Gone to a better place
  • #513
  • Jun 20, 2007 2:07pm Jun 20, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting asyi
Hi Dunlop432,

Twenty pips off of crossovers on days that have better than expected or worse than expected news is usually no problem. Yesterday and today were non-news days on the New York open so I wasn't trading except for 5 pips I wrung out of U/J.
Hey asyi,

Thanks for the reply. I will definitely manual backtest some charts based on
your strategy.

J. Stone
  • #514
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:10am Jun 29, 2007 8:10am
I really love the concept of this system. How do you keep track of all the pairs over the 24 hour market? Are you setting up an indicator to alert you when the cross happens... maybe by SMS or something?

Thanks.
Damon Decker
  • #515
  • Jun 30, 2007 6:25pm Jun 30, 2007 6:25pm
Quoting lemmon138
I really love the concept of this system. How do you keep track of all the pairs over the 24 hour market? Are you setting up an indicator to alert you when the cross happens... maybe by SMS or something?

Thanks.
Damon Decker
On page 1 there is a list of all the pairs and the time frames for maximum pips using the Pouria method. I would recommend using pairs you are familiar with around the hours of news releases. It is usually after these news releases that crossovers are most likely to occur. This system is based on moving average crossovers combined with a MACD crossover using 15,26 and 1. Using the Pouria system when the shorter (faster) MA advances above the longer (slower) MA a buy signal occurs. A sell signal would be given when the shorter MA crosses below the longer MA. The speed of the system and the number of signals generated will depend on the length of the MAs. The Pouria system is a very slow system. But, you only have to watch those pairs that are beginning to show sighs of a pending crossover. I never trade on a crossover alone. I wait for confirmation on the MACD and then trade on the next candle. You may be able to pick up more pips on a crossover breakout of 5 ema and 21 ema but these shorter MAs generate more false signals. 5, 75 & 85 is much safer. If you went with a 21 ema, 50 sma, 100 sma, 200 sma on a G/U 60 min chart you would have gone long at 1.9700 on 6/15. Remember that the shorter the time frame the more signals you are going to get. The longer time frames are more reliable because they take into account a lot more information. And the crossovers only occure once a week or once every two weeks and sometimes only once in a blue moon. So there really isn't any need for an alert system unless your really anxious to lose your money.
  • #516
  • Jul 29, 2007 12:58pm Jul 29, 2007 12:58pm
Just updating the pdv indicator with the ability change the ma setting and time frame ask requested by a few people.

This has not been tested on real time data yet, so please use with caution.

Good Luck Trading....
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pdv2.mq4   51 KB | 517 downloads
  • #517
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:33pm Jul 29, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting icpip
Just updating the pdv indicator with the ability change the ma setting and time frame ask requested by a few people.

This has not been tested on real time data yet, so please use with caution.

Good Luck Trading....
Found a few mistake.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pdv2.mq4   51 KB | 776 downloads
  • #518
  • Jul 31, 2007 6:11pm Jul 31, 2007 6:11pm
I tried this system, it has some interesting features

It needs some modification as can lead you astray when yellow cross the red lines not deeply.

It is useful to extend it to other time frames too
  • #519
  • Jul 31, 2007 6:34pm Jul 31, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting icpip
Found a few mistake.
It's really useful ...

thanks
  • #520
  • Aug 8, 2007 7:26am Aug 8, 2007 7:26am
this system is soooo damn simple and i've been making winning trades using my live manual account (no EA). damn damn simple. try it or regret it. im so convinced with the confidence of the thread starter. apparently he's so confident himself that he doesnt even put SL hahahaha.

kudos to you dude.
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