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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #721
  • Feb 5, 2025 8:58am Feb 5, 2025 8:58am
Quoting 2be
have been taking longs towards the fib RET of that WRB, m5 to m1 tfs done my daily minimum within the first 15 min of the us session looks like m5 rotation atm
taken that rotation on M5
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #722
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:07am Feb 5, 2025 9:07am
Quoting 2be
{quote} taken that rotation on M5
shorts covered at mS1
Time to go long? to the D Pivot
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #723
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:10am Feb 5, 2025 9:10am
Quoting 2be
{quote} shorts covered at mS1 Time to go long? to the D Pivot
Done, flat for a while
The last move was well over 100 points
So far done about 20 trades during the us session alone, fast and furious
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #724
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:16am Feb 5, 2025 9:16am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Done, flat for a while The last move was well over 100 points So far done about 20 trades during the us session alone, fast and furious
still would like PA to go well into that WRB from where a sizable shorts can be establish, it remains to be seen
Trade what is there to be seen!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #725
  • Feb 5, 2025 9:47am Feb 5, 2025 9:47am
Quoting 2be
{quote} still would like PA to go well into that WRB from where a sizable shorts can be establish, it remains to be seen Trade what is there to be seen!!!
Having a break, just under 40 trades, both ways M15 - M5 - M1
very fast few small loses, majority positive - that is what happens in a ranging market,
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #726
  • Edited 12:15pm Feb 5, 2025 11:36am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Having a break, just under 40 trades, both ways M15 - M5 - M1 very fast few small loses, majority positive - that is what happens in a ranging market,
PA well into that session WRB, minimum RET 38.2% has been reached together with hitting the missed D Pivot of that trading day FRI Jan 31st
Establishing MO to go short at 44820, just above 61.8%, that where the B of ABC formation might terminate, the Market Structure shall provide some valuable insights, if these targets are not achieved I will go short when the upward momentum gets weaker, pump and dump scenario!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions 2025-02-05_172713.png Size: 83 KB


earning season
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eaening season 2025-02-05_181322.png Size: 69 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #727
  • Feb 5, 2025 12:47pm Feb 5, 2025 12:47pm
searching for possible shorts on DOW
FOMC members will speak later on today
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #728
  • Edited 2:33pm Feb 5, 2025 1:10pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} PA well into that session WRB, minimum RET 38.2% has been reached together with hitting the missed D Pivot of that trading day FRI Jan 31st Establishing MO to go short at 44820, just above 61.8%, that where the B of ABC formation might terminate, the Market Structure shall provide some valuable insights, if these targets are not achieved I will go short when the upward momentum gets weaker, pump and dump scenario!!! {image} earning season {image}
MO short triggered 44820
Have been taken at BE established after the move down of around 40 points
DOW seems to go a bit higher, still remain committed to short again, tomorrow after the London open
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #729
  • Edited 5:08pm Feb 5, 2025 4:29pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} MO short triggered 44820 Have been taken at BE established after the move down of around 40 points DOW seems to go a bit higher, still remain committed to short again, tomorrow after the London open
Have had a busy session, and twice entered trades in the opposite direction to what I have intended. Ended with small loses on both them. Wakening experience.
It does not happen very often, and I usually automatically kill them of, as rescuing them usually leads to bigger losses.
Over 40 trades during the US session, few losing trades, a reasonable day, with many breaks from trading desk.
Somehow was struggling with being focused and alerted.
Over all a positive day, but a bit tiering.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF sessions2025-02-05_223503.png Size: 192 KB

It is important to pay attention to the session WRB created last Friday, 21 Jan 2025, and to the Market structure to see if the rotation to the downside will continue.
In either case it is reasonably easy to discern poss market moves and have a good idea where to put SL.
I have expected the retest of the WRB, it shall be soon clear it if is a retest or something else.

When the MA channels on M5, M15 M30 are in agreement with H4, including H4 stochs, DOW seems to have a day of holding the direction well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M5 - M15 sessions2025-02-05_225638.png Size: 92 KB



Lesson for me to repeat to myself, when tired and not focused, go away from monitors, have coffee and do something else. Market will not miss me and for sure it will be there when I am ready and keen to trade.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #730
  • Edited 10:06am Feb 6, 2025 9:51am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Have had a busy session, and twice entered trades in the opposite direction to what I have intended. Ended with small loses on both them. Wakening experience. It does not happen very often, and I usually automatically kill them of, as rescuing them usually leads to bigger losses. Over 40 trades during the US session, few losing trades, a reasonable day, with many breaks from trading desk. Somehow was struggling with being focused and alerted. Over all a positive day, but a bit tiering. {image} It is important to pay attention to the session...
Shorted to the last session close and to the D Pivot. Feel like I might be done for a while. Taken what the market manged to offer me this session, I am grateful for that!
Following semafor came handy, once close to the daily pivot, it actually hit Woody D Pivot and PA has reached Fib Chanel on M1, so I thought to be satisfied with good profits on just under 20 trades since the US open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Mtf 05 2025-02-06_155333.png Size: 173 KB


Earning season - Amazon ASC
Good points ta all!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #731
  • Feb 7, 2025 9:58am Feb 7, 2025 9:58am
Caught the move from mR1 to mS1, the first entry more "lack" than well calculated entry, just mechanical short from the mid pivot, could not believe my eyes, even the news was coming slow, reloaded on the PB on m1. Risky and automatic entries. On a higher TFs a PB has been expected, so no surprise on that account.
I am flat atm, coffee break and shall take it easier.
Got some bite on the short side, viciously fast.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #732
  • Edited 10:26am Feb 7, 2025 10:03am | Edited 10:26am
reciprocal tariffs have been mentioned
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #733
  • Feb 7, 2025 10:19am Feb 7, 2025 10:19am
tempted to fade the move south so the session candle bar will create a doji.
reciprocal tariffs have been mentioned
again talk about these tariffs, poss next week or over the weekend
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #734
  • Feb 7, 2025 10:41am Feb 7, 2025 10:41am
Quoting 2be
tempted to fade the move south so the session candle bar will create a doji. reciprocal tariffs have been mentioned again talk about these tariffs, poss next week or over the weekend
Taking a break from monitors, they have been on during the US session alone done over 40 trades until now
Time 4
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #735
  • Edited 5:37pm Feb 7, 2025 12:54pm | Edited 5:37pm
Several more shorts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF Sessions 2025-02-07_185325.png Size: 193 KB

Bit more to go down from the 1st impulsive, Dow often goes to -261.8 44300 zone


At poss support , Wed session L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF sessions 05 2025-02-07_190447.png Size: 196 KB


44330 covered all shorts, just in case
Buckets lots of positive points, but at times PA has been very fast.

One needs to pay attention to details, like yesterdays H was achieved prior to the US open, Have shorted from there as it has bee clear t was a pump by MM, as to confuse the PA on Daily, today's Daily H has been achieved during the US session, all of these details matter and are important.
The channel is created by MA5, corresponding to the stochs 5.3.3 setting, and semafor being linked to fractals/zigzags.
I know it might be to much for some, but being used to this type of things allows to make decision fast, and pile more orders to the initial position. It has been a higher intensity day with a good number of trades, average number of trades, as I have had some breaks too.
As I type -261.8 has been reached! I have mentioned the fibs so many times, sorry to bore you once again.
The utility of fibs drawn from the session's first impulsive.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #736
  • Edited 5:37pm Feb 7, 2025 3:15pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting 2be
Several more shorts {image} Bit more to go down from the 1st impulsive, Dow often goes to -261.8 44300 zone At poss support , Wed session L {image} 44330 covered all shorts, just in case Buckets lots of positive points, but at times PA has been very fast. One needs to pay attention to details, like yesterdays H was achieved prior to the US open, Have shorted from there as it has bee clear t was a pump by MM, as to confuse the PA on Daily, today's Daily H has been achieved during the US session, all of these details matter and are important. The channel...
The session has ended!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF sessions 06 2025-02-07_210434.png Size: 193 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #737
  • Edited 6:53am Feb 8, 2025 6:11am | Edited 6:53am
Yesterday has been another great US session for indices, DOW in my case.

One has to like MM, there are multiple reasons for that, just a few listed below:

- they are an important part of creating the market, and even using bucket shops one can make sizable profits, TAX FREE for me in the UK, NO ACCOUNTS NEEDED!!!! In the UK, CGT tax can be sizable, plus accountancy fees and all that paper work, to which I am pathologically allergic!

- they provide a valuable lead, at times a very important lead on the landscape of pump and dump or reverse, IMHO that is very useful for trading indices which have a definite open and close

- continuing arbitration between the DOW ticker and continuous DOW cash and DOW futures - good to see on which side they mark the price

- there is a definitive advantage trading index like the DOW with a single opening and a single close. The price after the close and before the open often provides vey useful information, as well as but not only in close proximity of the zones important for retests, like last Thursday, when the daily H outside the US session was a good give away to short the DOW.

So I like Market Makers, there is no real choice, a bit like a family, it is much better to like them all instead of fighting and hating. Without the MM, as a retail trader I might not do as well as with them, even if there was a choice. It is profitable to follow their lead while trading using bucket shops they have usefully created.

There are very different approaches to trading, different instruments, but one needs to know the limitations and advantages of the trading strategie/s preferably created by given trader or adopted and learned from a successful trader.

Have a nice weekend.
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #738
  • Feb 9, 2025 3:56pm Feb 9, 2025 3:56pm
Super Bowl in few hours, then Monday's London open, NYSE open and the start of quality harvest time.
Getting ready for the positive week ahead!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #739
  • Feb 10, 2025 4:45am Feb 10, 2025 4:45am
Quoting 2be
Super Bowl in few hours, then Monday's London open, NYSE open and the start of quality harvest time. Getting ready for the positive week ahead!
MM have left some footprints. I usually ignore the weekend candle bars which the continuous DOW cash charting software and data feeds display. These bars are of no interest to me.
There is a disagreement between the TF, useful confusion, which eventually will be over and the market will declare its hand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW NTF Monday 2025-02-10_104450.png Size: 199 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #740
  • Edited 9:09am Feb 10, 2025 8:40am | Edited 9:09am
shorted from the session H towards the gap
Risk worth taking 200+ in less that 10 min
Done more than daily minimum.
No time to post, but the idea is there clearly explained.
Good trading to all!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MT sessions2025-02-10_144553.png Size: 190 KB


MM were at their useful work prior to the session, don't we like their "wonderful" work?
We can see that the first session impulsive in in, lets see the reaction to confirm that proposition.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Fibs M1 2025-02-10_145254.png Size: 83 KB

MO to go short 44540 zone, RET 70.07
break 4 me, at RET 50% atm, possible short entry
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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