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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #10,061
  • Jan 30, 2025 6:17am Jan 30, 2025 6:17am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} Yes unfortunately I was in the divs prior to that one. about 3 hours before.
Yes, sometimes I just have to guess what people are talking about because the actual trades are not shown nor a vertical line to indicate the time.

No worries though. I don't mind guessing wrongly.

I had to take three trades to make my 40 today.
  • #10,062
  • Jan 31, 2025 1:37pm Jan 31, 2025 1:37pm
Not a good week with all the ranging and minimal screen time to keep an eye on things. Most trades turning round to my SL this week whilst away doing meetings but managed a good one today.
More luck than judgement I think. Target the previous H1 EMA and spotted this divergence on the M15. SL 25 pips below and target 50 pips up. All worked out good this time round. Hopefully next will turn out better.
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  • #10,063
  • Feb 1, 2025 2:47pm Feb 1, 2025 2:47pm
Slight change of tack next week. Spend more time looking for the ZOO points on H1 and check for divergence at these ZOO points. The Tuesday ZOO didn't quite make the H4 EMA and the Thursday ZOO created divergence on the M15 chart as well as did the Tuesday ZOO. Just taking a punt based on divergence is creating too many losses this week.
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  • #10,064
  • Feb 3, 2025 12:31am Feb 3, 2025 12:31am
I have no idea where the gappage came from, but it hit the 4-hour D1 which was also a 1 hour swing low average.
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  • #10,065
  • Feb 3, 2025 2:00pm Feb 3, 2025 2:00pm
That's a real shame. At our trade time spotted H1 divergence at a previous EMA swing low. Went in with a long trade targeting the last EMA swing and price decided to retest the daily open again kicking me out for a few pips. Obviously to rub my face in it, price then hit the target. Dam you.
In hindsight maybe a move to BE should have happened after the retest.
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  • #10,066
  • Feb 3, 2025 4:59pm Feb 3, 2025 4:59pm
The gap finally closed after I went to bed but still a very profitable day.
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  • #10,067
  • Feb 3, 2025 5:05pm Feb 3, 2025 5:05pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
That's a real shame. At our trade time spotted H1 divergence at a previous EMA swing low. Went in with a long trade targeting the last EMA swing and price decided to retest the daily open again kicking me out for a few pips. Obviously to rub my face in it, price then hit the target. Dam you. In hindsight maybe a move to BE should have happened after the retest. {image}
There is something about your trading I don't understand.

What was your target, this determines the stop and your lot size. A large target like this requires very little to make 2% leaving plenty of money to add to the trade.

I had an 80-pip target with a 40-pip stop and added more entries moving the stop accordingly.
  • #10,068
  • Feb 3, 2025 5:38pm Feb 3, 2025 5:38pm
If we look at trading between the averages it was a massive 190+ pips.
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The target determines the stop i.e 2:1
This determines the lot size to enter with. The greater the distance the cheaper the lot size.

It is only math, expect to win more trades than losses and the wins are a minimum of twice the size of the losses.

Stick to the system for entries, targets, stops, money management and you should find it very difficult to lose.
  • #10,069
  • Feb 4, 2025 2:08am Feb 4, 2025 2:08am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} There is something about your trading I don't understand. What was your target, this determines the stop and your lot size. A large target like this requires very little to make 2% leaving plenty of money to add to the trade. I had an 80-pip target with a 40-pip stop and added more entries moving the stop accordingly.
No big mystery here boss. I figure a BE is better than a SL so am using a BE bot after 15 pips or so to get me to BE as I am usually busy on other stuff at the start of my working day. The hook/retest is a right pain for any bot. Have tried trading the daily chart but boredom brings me back to the H1 again.
  • #10,070
  • Feb 4, 2025 2:20am Feb 4, 2025 2:20am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} No big mystery here boss. I figure a BE is better than a SL so am using a BE bot after 15 pips or so to get me to BE as I am usually busy on other stuff at the start of my working day. The hook/retest is a right pain for any bot. Have tried trading the daily chart but boredom brings me back to the H1 again.
I would be asking, what is so special about 15 pips. Has this been tested to be mostly good to use.

I watch for the failure to break the EMA and then move the stop to BE. Failure generally means a retest of the div.
  • #10,071
  • Feb 4, 2025 2:26am Feb 4, 2025 2:26am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I would be asking, what is so special about 15 pips. Has this been tested to be mostly good to use. I watch for the failure to break the EMA and then move the stop to BE. Failure generally means a retest of the div.
Nothing special about 15 pips. Have tried all values up to 30 pips and I keep coming back to somewhere between 15-20.
  • #10,072
  • Feb 4, 2025 9:48am Feb 4, 2025 9:48am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I would be asking, what is so special about 15 pips. Has this been tested to be mostly good to use. I watch for the failure to break the EMA and then move the stop to BE. Failure generally means a retest of the div.
Please explain "the Failure" with a picture for clarity. Thanks!
  • #10,073
  • Feb 4, 2025 10:04am Feb 4, 2025 10:04am
Quoting LFrZero
{quote} Please explain "the Failure" with a picture for clarity. Thanks!
How about this one.
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  • #10,074
  • Feb 4, 2025 10:26am Feb 4, 2025 10:26am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} How about this one. {image}
I more concern about the "move the stop to BE when it failure to break EMA"
  • #10,075
  • Feb 4, 2025 10:06pm Feb 4, 2025 10:06pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} How about this one. {image}
This is an excellent example and should be self-explanatory.

It starts by dipping your toe in the water at the div with a target in mind being the testing of the opposite average level.

Now for this to happen the div should cross the EMA and price should find support. Then we can add to our position to make our desired profit and move our stop to limit the risk.

Now if price does not make it across the EMA there is no chance for the trade to become successful, so we move our stop to BE. We do this because we may still be correct, we may simply be experiencing a HOOK retest of the Div.

We could also just close the trade for the little profit we make but if we do, we will never make the much larger winnings by hanging in there. At no time during a complete trade are we risking anymore than1%. This is the exact opposite of what many traders do as they average down their losses instead of compounding their winnings.

When we average down sooner or later, we will experience a dramatic loss.
When we compound our winnings sooner or later, we will experience a dramatic win.

Hope this clears things up a tad.
  • #10,076
  • Edited 4:51am Feb 5, 2025 4:36am | Edited 4:51am
Only trade of the week so far.

Feels wrong to go against the long up move but,
bear div on m5 at H1 ema swing level. Testing my luck.
Target h1 ema and m5 swing level.

Cut my losses at half, seems safe to say price is attacking the next swing-level.
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  • #10,077
  • Feb 5, 2025 4:50am Feb 5, 2025 4:50am
Quoting Fantaburk
Only trade of the week so far. Feels wrong to go against the long up move but, bear div on m5 at H1 ema swing level. Testing my luck. Target h1 ema and m5 swing level. {image}
I find the M5 shows divergence trades constantly. Need to get divergence on the HTF and then look at the LTF
  • #10,078
  • Feb 5, 2025 4:57am Feb 5, 2025 4:57am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} I find the M5 shows divergence trades constantly. Need to get divergence on the HTF and then look at the LTF
Yes probably true, could maybe get the first entry from HTF and only add on m5. Will have it in mind going forward.
  • #10,079
  • Feb 5, 2025 5:07am Feb 5, 2025 5:07am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} Yes probably true, could maybe get the first entry from HTF and only add on m5. Will have it in mind going forward.
I only see uptrend here. Getting back in on the long trades is proving tricky for me. Need a M5 EMA fail I guess but none here.
Once I see a bear support on the M5 i will probably target the last EMA with as short trade (also daily open line)
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  • #10,080
  • Feb 5, 2025 5:13am Feb 5, 2025 5:13am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} I only see uptrend here. Getting back in on the long trades is proving tricky for me. Need a M5 EMA fail I guess but none here. Once I see a bear support on the M5 i will probably target the last EMA with as short trade (also daily open line) {image}
M15 bear div + tbt might be the HTF signal to give you an opportunity
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