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Attachments: DOW - PA, Stops and hedging
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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #701
  • Edited 10:43am Jan 31, 2025 10:20am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting 2be
close shorts at 45055 188 points on the posted positions, have gone with other positions I have not posted, so will only mentioned here, as the overall it became a large position, so closed it with good profits +188 points on these DOW Mar 25 The reasons I have covered these shorts was that S&P and NASDAQ has not been in agreement with the DOW, gaps has been closed and D Pivot was in close proximity Also trading DOW cash Have put several trades before the session, and 40 minutes into the session - being Friday - I am tempted to take it easy from...
Look at the percentages and charts on US500 (S&P), US Tech 100 (NASDAQ) VIX, Bitcoin Tnotes USD Index

I have this window open all the time I trade using very large monitor so I can see things at glance!!!, no confluence between DOW and the others, very confusing for me.
So grabbed what was there and that is about all I can say


Some algos or zombies are in control of DOW atm
It is better if I step away, I do not need to trade all of the time, I am not that clever!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Intermarket screen 2025-01-31 161229.png Size: 426 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #702
  • Edited 3:09pm Jan 31, 2025 2:35pm | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Look at the percentages and charts on US500 (S&P), US Tech 100 (NASDAQ) VIX, Bitcoin Tnotes USD Index I have this window open all the time I trade using very large monitor so I can see things at glance!!!, no confluence between DOW and the others, very confusing for me. So grabbed what was there and that is about all I can say Some algos or zombies are in control of DOW atm It is better if I step away, I do not need to trade all of the time, I am not that clever! {image}
In about 30 min US session will close
What a day, my bias proved correct, but lack of focus made me finish early, that is ok, though missed rather a lot of points, no point to be regretful, but it is good to remember
Below is the intermarket things I look for when trading DOW
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: End of Fri session 2025-01-31 202944.png Size: 444 KB

As one can see, things managed to get aligned S&P and NASDAQ came in line with DOW compared with what I posted earlier
It is important to look at the % interrelation between the given securities, looking at VIX, Bitcoin , USD index ect..

It certainly is a good day to review and to learn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF sessions 2025-01-31_204255.png Size: 206 KB


PA and FIBS taken of the first impulsive of the US session
DOW Often terminates at 261, on day like today it went passed 300, not that unusual during high volatility days like today

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M1 sessions fibs 2025-01-31_204414.png Size: 84 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-01-31_210756.png Size: 94 KB



Wishing all to have a great weekend!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #703
  • Edited 5:18am Feb 1, 2025 4:14am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting martinez1
{quote} '' MM are having fun'' Yes they are, trying to confuse traders who are not sure about the market structure or their trading methodology.
Hi martines1
Hope you have done better job than me last Friday, I have done minimally OK, but have missed the larger move down.
Somehow during the US session I became tired, bored and less focused, for intra day trading that is severely suboptimal condition to be while trading.
I have mixed the longer swing trades on DOW MAR25 futures with intra day positions on DOW Cash, and covered all shorts with reasonable profits, also thought that that Friday was likely to stay within the tighter range, market proved otherwise, and market is always correct!!!

Fridays can be dull or explosive, I mark the third Fridays of the month as PA before them is very bubbly, I wander if the last month's trading days might also prove to be of interest.
The white charts, Dynamic Trader software is useful for wave and fibs analysis, and has some unique tools for cycles, though one need to be careful with these ones.
Session candle bars cannot be drawn on DT software, unless I drastically change the existing data feed, too much work for that. So the bars on DT are drawn as the data feed of continuous DOW Cash from IG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-01-31_210756.png Size: 94 KB

Chart below is DOW on MT4 M30 with session bars with Fibs drawn in readiness for the coming Monday. The intention is to use FIBs to monitor the reaction to that WRB created by last US session candle bar, or on DT the last Friday candle bar, what ever one chooses to use.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions Fibs 2025-02-01_101851.png Size: 62 KB


Please compare charts below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF fibs 2025-02-01_110352.png Size: 87 KB


White chart below is DOW daily DT with Fibs drawn of the whole span of last Friday - the span of the whole day including wicks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW DT Daily WRB 2025-02-01_111247.png Size: 27 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #704
  • Feb 1, 2025 8:40am Feb 1, 2025 8:40am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Hi martines1 Hope you have done better job than me last Friday, I have done minimally OK, but have missed the larger move down. Somehow during the US session I became tired, bored and less focused, for intra day trading that is severely suboptimal condition to be while trading. I have mixed the longer swing trades on DOW MAR25 futures with intra day positions on DOW Cash, and covered all shorts with reasonable profits, also thought that that Friday was likely to stay within the tighter range, market proved otherwise, and market is always...
A classic way of trading utilising WRB is to trade after it has been formed, that leads to a very profitable outcomes. Catching tops and bottoms usually leads to a lot of sweat and possible losses, although I may say it s DANGEROUSLY satisfying if from time to time one is able to catch the move close to the rotation zone.
It is possible to trade within the WRB body using Fibs, but for sure MO just below the lower body zone of the session candle is also the way to go. This type of approach reduces the risk of things going badly. Of course MTFs analysis is most welcomed. There is good amount of info on WRB on internet, and in some trading books.
Good hunting to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #705
  • Feb 1, 2025 2:00pm Feb 1, 2025 2:00pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} A classic way of trading utilising WRB is to trade after it has been formed, that leads to a very profitable outcomes. Catching tops and bottoms usually leads to a lot of sweat and possible losses, although I may say it s DANGEROUSLY satisfying if from time to time one is able to catch the move close to the rotation zone. It is possible to trade within the WRB body using Fibs, but for sure MO just below the lower body zone of the session candle is also the way to go. This type of approach reduces the risk of things going badly. Of course...
Well i tried my best and am thinking it will move down to at least the closest RN of 44000 before think of reversal. I might be wrong all the same.
Green pips to us all.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #706
  • Feb 1, 2025 2:04pm Feb 1, 2025 2:04pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Hi martines1 Hope you have done better job than me last Friday, I have done minimally OK, but have missed the larger move down. Somehow during the US session Please compare charts below {image} White chart below is DOW daily DT with Fibs drawn of the whole span of last Friday - the span of the whole day including wicks {image}
Okay. Looking at your chart i will be more than happy if it gets down to 43.... Green pips to us all

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW DT Daily WRB 2025-02-01_111247.png Size: 26 KB
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #707
  • Edited 3:36pm Feb 1, 2025 3:14pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting martinez1
{quote} Okay. Looking at your chart i will be more than happy if it gets down to 43.... Green pips to us all {image}
Fib extensions of the WRB are nor that important, the FibRETs are important if there is a retest
By far the more important are the Fibs draw is the chart with the possible rotation posted earlier, and reposted below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-01-31_210756.png Size: 94 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #708
  • Edited 3:34pm Feb 1, 2025 3:16pm | Edited 3:34pm
Few things to be aware of when looking at the WRB

below is a MTF charts of DOW on MT4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF fibs 2025-02-01_110352.png Size: 87 KB


DOW M30 fibs drawn from the extremes of the US session, H & L
for measuring entry of that WRB there is probably more precise way of drawing fibs as on DOW chart M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions Fibs 2025-02-01_101851.png Size: 62 KB


DOW M15 sessions chart with the Fibs drawn from the session Open to the session Close
As far as I can remember that is more advisable, with definite Sell MOs placed just below the close
One can also place more risky trades at RET 61.8, 70.7 or slightly higher, but wail for reversal on shorter TFs, as these entries are befor the solid confirmarion that that WRB has become significant and pert of a larger rotation (PB) in this case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M15 sessions Fibs 022025-02-01_151958.png Size: 61 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #709
  • Feb 3, 2025 3:22am Feb 3, 2025 3:22am
Yes, woke to see 43900 and it still looks like it going to get more down.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #710
  • Feb 3, 2025 4:20am Feb 3, 2025 4:20am
Quoting martinez1
Yes, woke to see 43900 and it still looks like it going to get more down.
Yes, great! There might be a PB. Big gaps in play atm.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #711
  • Feb 3, 2025 10:25am Feb 3, 2025 10:25am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Yes, great! There might be a PB. Big gaps in play atm.
Intersession gap has been closed
Gap to the last session almost closed
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #712
  • Edited 1:31pm Feb 3, 2025 12:20pm | Edited 1:31pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Intersession gap has been closed Gap to the last session almost closed
done for the day, traded towards the gap closures as it could be guessed with ease
Nothing is risk free, things have worked out well for this part of my strategy during this session
Good trades to all!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #713
  • Edited 3:45pm Feb 3, 2025 3:21pm | Edited 3:45pm
very good day for the DOW
GAPS have been filled, classic PA on that score worthy to commit to memory!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF sessions 2025-02-03_211409.png Size: 201 KB


Remember the different characteristics of impulsive V corrective
INHO DOW is in a corrective atm with the fibs pointing to the possible targets
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-02-03_211547.png Size: 92 KB


It is important to follow the PA before the US open tomorrow, it would be ideal situation if there is a good gap above todays close and todays H - if so great shorting before and during the session
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3?d=1738444832

review and catch up on WRBs scenarios and how to trade in relation to WRBs
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #714
  • Feb 4, 2025 8:36am Feb 4, 2025 8:36am
Am already in long since yersteday looking forward to ride it till above 45000 at least. More green pips to us all
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #715
  • Feb 4, 2025 9:31am Feb 4, 2025 9:31am
Quoting 2be
very good day for the DOW GAPS have been filled, classic PA on that score worthy to commit to memory!!! {image} Remember the different characteristics of impulsive V corrective INHO DOW is in a corrective atm with the fibs pointing to the possible targets {image} It is important to follow the PA before the US open tomorrow, it would be ideal situation if there is a good gap above todays close and todays H - if so great shorting before and during the session https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3?d=1738444832 review and...
What in the star wars is going on
  • #716
  • Edited 1:56pm Feb 4, 2025 9:53am | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting martinez1
Am already in long since yersteday looking forward to ride it till above 45000 at least. More green pips to us all
I am trading both ways - intra day
IMHO the corrective move down might still surprise, there is no evidence or confirmation on the daily TF to suggest the corrective is over.
Grab what the market offers, and at time there is a low hanging fruit.
Good points to you!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #717
  • Feb 4, 2025 12:00pm Feb 4, 2025 12:00pm
Quoting CogAlpha
{quote} What in the star wars is going on
I am trying to work it out.
I trade what I see, adhering to my proven strategy, ruthlessly controlling risk!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #718
  • Edited 6:58pm Feb 4, 2025 3:26pm | Edited 6:58pm
character of the corrective, some of this and lots of the other
So far there is zero "0" evidence that this corrective is done, either as failed one or as completed one, in a more recognised manner by forming market structure common in such situation. Some might have heard of ABC structure common for the correctives, I cannot see anything resembling such a structure or a failure of the possible structure. While anything can happen, it is often the case to trade PA and recognised market moves supported by statistical analysis.
A single announcement might send DOW down another 1000 points, and in a few days DOW wll miraculously recover, this is a dump and pump and reverse territory.

below DOW MTF on MT4
WRB very much in play
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF Sessions 2025-02-04_210954.png Size: 209 KB


DOW on DT Daily and H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2025-02-04_211445.png Size: 95 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW H4 dt 2025-02-04_211529.png Size: 59 KB

No surprise that the session was subdued and the session span has been limited in comparison to the previous sessions, stochs have not bee in agreement.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #719
  • Feb 5, 2025 8:20am Feb 5, 2025 8:20am
It would be nice if DOW tests the session WRB, than a B of ABC shall be completed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF Sessions2025-02-05_142655.png Size: 211 KB


compare with the charts on post 703
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #720
  • Feb 5, 2025 8:50am Feb 5, 2025 8:50am
have been taking longs towards the fib RET of that WRB, m5 to m1 tfs
done my daily minimum within the first 15 min of the us session
looks like m5 rotation atm
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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