Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

Brent attempts to regain ground after a decline

Following a decline, Brent crude oil is attempting a recovery, with a potential growth target of 73.00. Discover more in our analysis for 24 December 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Brent crude oil futures show growth on the London Stock Exchange
2. Market participants anticipate a pre-New Year rally
3. Brent forecast for 24 December 2024: 73.00 and 72.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil continues to strengthen amid a reduction in global hydrocarbon reserves.

Brent prices are experiencing moderate growth on 24 December 2024, following slight declines in the previous days. This morning, February futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange increased by 0.35 USD (0.48%), reaching 72.98 USD per barrel.

Analysts attribute this growth to the recovery from the previous decline and market participants’ expectations ahead of the upcoming holidays, which could lead to lower trading volumes and increased volatility.

Nevertheless, the market remains concerned about an economic slowdown in China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, and the strengthening of the US dollar. All these factors could exert pressure on prices in the near term.

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Gold (XAUUSD) holds steady above 2,600 USD

XAUUSD quotes are experiencing slight volatility this week, remaining firmly above the 2,600 USD support level. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 27 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: Gold is trading within a limited range due to the holiday week in Europe and the US
2. Current trend: consolidating within a sideways range
3. XAUUSD forecast for 27 December 2024: 2,640 and 2,600

Fundamental analysis

Gold is set to end this week with moderate gains, having returned to the area above 2,600 USD following a recent downward correction. The decline was driven by the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will pause its monetary policy easing cycle in early 2025.

Overall, XAUUSD maintains a confident position, rising about 30% this year. Gold continues to benefit from demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and monetary easing policies pursued by global central banks.

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Increasing oil demand from China may boost Brent barrel prices

Brent oil is consolidating near the 76.00 USD support level. Discover more in our analysis for 9 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Brent prices plunged after a rapid rise
2. The oil market expects demand from China to increase
3. Brent forecast for 9 January 2025: 78.00 and 74.80

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices continue to correct amid last week’s decline in commercial supplies. According to data from 9 January 2025, oil prices stand at 76.00 USD per barrel. Various factors influence price behaviour, including changes in US oil inventories and demand from China

In particular, on 2 January 2025, it was reported that US oil stocks decreased, which pushed Brent prices above 77.50 USD. Fundamental analysis for 9 January 2025 suggests that higher demand from China may trigger growth in Brent prices.

Overall, the oil market remains influenced by numerous factors, including geopolitical situations, economic forecasts, and actions of key oil producers. Oil quotes continue to respond to changes in supply and demand, and geopolitical risks.

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USDJPY is on the rise again, and there is more to come

The USDJPY pair rose to 158.36 on Friday. Uncertainty persists regarding the Bank of Japan’s stance on interest rates. Find out more in our analysis for 10 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair reaches new multi-year highs
2. The yen will remain under pressure until the Bank of Japan clarifies its interest rate policy
3. USDJPY forecast for 10 January 2025: 158.45 and 159.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate ended the week even higher, hovering around 158.36.

The Japanese yen has now fallen to a new multi-year low. Uncertainty about the timing of an interest hike by the Bank of Japan exerts significant pressure on the JPY. As Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said yesterday, the country’s economy is at a critical stage where overcoming the public’s deflationary mindset is essential. However, he did not specify when the BoJ might be ready to raise borrowing costs.

Japan’s household spending fell by 0.4% year-on-year in November, while earnings rose by 0.7%.

Externally, the yen faces additional pressure from a strong US dollar. The USDJPY forecast appears positive.

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Political instability in Canada supports USDCAD growth

The USDCAD rate is rising for the fifth consecutive trading session, with buyers poised to test the 1.4465 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 13 January 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

1. US jobs increased by 256 thousand in December, marking the most significant gain in nine months
2. Positive US labour market data heightened expectations of a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts
3. Canada’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.7% in December, surpassing the forecast of 6.9%
4. USDCAD forecast for 13 January 2025: 1.4465 and 1.4515

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is strengthening within an ascending channel. The pair’s growth is supported by the increase in US job numbers, which stood at 256 thousand in December, marking the most substantial growth in nine months. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in November to 4.1% in December, exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 165-thousand job increase. This data has boosted expectations of a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

According to preliminary data, the US Consumer Price Index declined to 73.2 points in December, down from 74.0 in November. Analysts had forecast a less significant decline to 73.8. A year earlier, in January 2024, the index was 79.0.

Meanwhile, Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.7% in December, exceeding the expected 6.9%. However, the figure remains the second highest since September 2021, reflecting the softening labour market conditions noted by the Bank of Canada. The economy faces additional pressures from political and fiscal uncertainties, including budget deficit risks and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

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Gold (XAUUSD) continues to rise after a correction

The stabilising PPI and John C. Williams’s speech may weaken the US dollar and push Gold prices towards 2,692. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 14 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 0.4%, projected to remain unchanged
2. A speech by FOMC member John C. Williams
3. Current trend: moving higher
4. XAUUSD forecast for 14 January 2025: 2,692 and 2,658

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis indicates that the pair is nearing the end of its correction and may soon begin a new upward movement.

The US PPI is a key inflation indicator tracking the average price change for goods and services of domestic producers. It records price changes from the sellers’ perspective and covers three production sectors: manufacturing, commodities, and processing. The PPI is often regarded as a leading inflation gauge, as rising costs for production and services typically filter through to consumers. According to the forecast, US PPI data is expected to remain steady at 0.4%.

Today, 14 January 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and FOMC member John C. Williams is expected to deliver a speech. Given his earlier statements, he will likely discuss the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy and future actions.

In December 2024, Williams noted the need to proceed with interest rate cuts, emphasising that these decisions will depend on incoming economic data and the current policy, which restrains positive economic momentum.

He also stressed the importance of achieving the 2.0% inflation target and pointed out that while the Fed’s policy remains restrictive, it has successfully guided inflation towards this goal. In today’s speech, Williams will likely address the following issues:

Assessment of current economic conditions and inflation trends

The Federal Reserve’s future interest rate-cutting plans and the conditions required for these cuts

The impact of the fiscal policy and other external factors on the US economy

However, the specifics of his address will only become clear after his speech, which could significantly affect XAUUSD quotes.

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GBPUSD: the pair may continue to decline after completing a correction

The actual UK and US CPI data and the speeches of FOMC members may impact the GBP’s strength. Discover more in our analysis for 15 January 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The UK CPI for December: previously at 2.6%, projected at 2.6%
2. The US CPI for December: previously at 0.3%, projected at 0.4%
3. FOMC member Jeffrey Schmid will deliver a speech
4. FOMC member John C. Williams will deliver a speech
5. GBPUSD forecast for 15 January 2025: 1.2290 and 1.2100

Fundamental analysis

The UK CPI reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services, helping assess changes in buying trends and economic stagnation. A higher-than-forecast reading typically has a positive effect on the national currency.

The forecast for 15 January 2025 suggests that the December 2024 CPI could remain unchanged from the previous reading of 2.6%; the projected reading may also be 2.6%.

Fundamental analysis for 15 January 2025 shows that if the UK CPI remains flat compared to the previous period, this may add to positive factors for the British pound.

The US CPI could rise to 0.4% in December 2024 from the previous reading of 0.3%. The index’s positive dynamics add optimism to the US dollar, which, in turn, may have a downward impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and FOMC member John C. Williams is expected to deliver a speech today, 15 January 2025. Given his earlier statements, he will likely discuss the current economic situation, inflation trends, and possible directions of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

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USDJPY declines: the yen catches an opportunity in an attempt to strengthen

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 155.76 on Thursday, marking the second day of decline, with the yen aggressive. Find out more in our analysis for 16 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair is rapidly declining on the currency market
2. The market is receiving signals that the Bank of Japan is ready to raise the interest rate at the next meeting
3. USDJPY forecast for 16 January 2025: 155.14

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rapidly falling, moving towards 155.76.

The yen’s position improved significantly after comments from the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The monetary policymaker said the regulator would discuss an interest rate hike next week based on its quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts.

Ueda also noted that the political prospects for the new US administration and wage negotiations with trade unions in Japan are becoming key factors influencing the decision to raise borrowing costs.

The very probability of a rate hike is important to the JPY.

The USDJPY forecast is unfavourable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Gold (XAUUSD) rises: the market favours buyers

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 2,715 USD amid strengthening demand for safe-haven assets. Find out more in our analysis for 17 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold prices maintain their upward trajectory
2. The market’s demand for safe-haven assets boosts interest in Gold as such
3. XAUUSD forecast for 17 January 2025: 2,727 and 2,730

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) quotes continue their ascent, reaching a monthly high of 2,715 USD.

Two key factors are driving Gold prices upward. The first is the prospect of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut larger than expected. This outlook became apparent following the release of this week’s economic data. The second factor is the heightened demand for safe-haven assets, as investors seek risk-averse strategies ahead of potential US White House measures to introduce stricter trade tariffs.

The Gold (XAUUSD) forecast appears positive.

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Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen against the US dollar

XAUUSD quotes continue to rise ahead of the US presidential inauguration. More details in our XAUUSD forecast for today, 20 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Today is a holiday in the US due to the Birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.
2. The inauguration of US President Donald Trump
3. Current trend: moving upwards
4. XAUUSD forecast for 20 January 2025: 2,689 and 2,733

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that the pair is completing a correction and may start forming a new growth wave.

As of 20 January 2025, Gold prices continue their upward momentum, reaching 2,700 USD per troy ounce. This rise is driven by persisting geopolitical tensions, especially given the recent developments in the Middle East and uncertainty in the global economy.

The XAUUSD forecast for 20 January 2025 considers that amid Trump’s inauguration and some strengthening of the US dollar, XAUUSD prices may continue to grow.

The outlook for the USD relative to Gold for the coming months does not look optimistic. Given the current trends and increased demand for the precious metal, gold prices may exceed 3,000 USD per troy ounce.

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USDJPY is under pressure ahead of the BoJ decision

The USDJPY rate is correcting, though the currency pair remains under pressure, with the price currently at 155.50. Discover more in our analysis for 21 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The Japanese yen has strengthened for the second consecutive week, driven by market expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike
2. The Bank of Japan officials have made hawkish statements, increasing confidence in monetary policy tightening
3. Kazuo Ueda’s press conference is the market’s key event
4. USDJPY forecast for 21 January 2025: 154.30 and 153.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate shows signs of growth after rebounding from the 154.90 support level. Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is strengthening for the second consecutive trading week amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. This was triggered by hawkish comments from the bank’s officials, which increased market confidence in monetary policy tightening.

The Bank of Japan is expected to announce an interest rate hike on Friday, pushing short-term borrowing rates to 0.5%, the highest level since the global 2008 financial crisis.

As the rate hike is almost inevitable, the market’s attention is turning to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Investors will closely follow his comments to gain insight into the regulator’s future plans regarding the pace and timing of interest rate hikes.

Japan’s inflation remains above the 2.0% target, with the weak yen continuing to pressure import prices. In this situation, Ueda will likely emphasise the regulator’s resolution to proceed with tightening monetary conditions to curb inflationary pressures.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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USDJPY holds steady ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 155.80, with the market focus on the future BoJ interest rate decision. Discover more in our analysis for 22 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair is subdued, awaiting news
2. The market forecasts a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting
3. USDJPY forecast for 22 January 2025: 155.85 and 156.59

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate stands at 155.80 on Wednesday. The Japanese yen has paused its recent rally as investors conserve their strength for future movements. Market attention is focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting this week.

Supported by hawkish statements from certain monetary policymakers, baseline stock market expectations indicate that the BoJ will increase the interest rate. The rate hike would raise Japan’s short-term borrowing costs to 0.5%, marking the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Bank of Japan meeting is more crucial than external events. The US dollar is in a weak position, as the excitement over trade tariffs and inflation stabilisation offers little support to the US currency.

The USDJPY forecast appears neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
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EURUSD: the pair failed to breach the 1.0450 resistance level

The EURUSD pair is undergoing an upward correction after forming a local low. The bulls were unable to surpass the 1.0450 resistance level immediately. Find out more in our analysis for 23 January 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Donald Trump has not yet imposed new trade tariffs on the European Union
2. Current trend: upward correction
3. EURUSD forecast for 23 January 2025: 1.0450 and 1.0350

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate strengthened, rising to a five-week high of 1.0450, following news that US President Donald Trump held off on imposing stricter trade tariffs on the European Union. Nevertheless, concerns remain about potential near-term restrictions from the US.

In her speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde urged Europe to prepare for possible US trade sanctions. Regarding monetary policy, the ECB is expected to continue easing by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week.

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XAUUSD forecast: Gold continues to strengthen against the US dollar

A potential rise in inflation and a decrease in the US PMI could support Gold growth to 2,790 USD. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 24 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The University of Michigan US inflation expectations: previously at 2.8%, projected at 3.3%
2. US services PMI: previously at 56.8, projected at 56.4
3. Current trend: moving upwards
4. XAUUSD forecast for 24 January 2025: 2,790 and 2,750

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 24 January 2025 shows that the pair continues to form a growth wave.

The University of Michigan's US inflation expectations will be released at the beginning of the US trading session. The previous reading was 2.8%, and the forecast for 24 January 2025 suggests that inflation may rise to 3.3%, affecting XAUUSD prices.

The US services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is projected to decrease to 56.4 given that it has been gradually increasing over the past three months. A weaker-than-forecast actual reading may lead to the weakening of the US dollar. A stronger-than-expected PMI could support the US dollar to some extent.

The XAUUSD price forecast appears rather optimistic, with prices having the potential to reach new highs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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EURUSD declined: the Fed and Trump’s plans ahead

The EURUSD pair tumbled to 1.0464. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting this week and taking into account the signals from the White House. Find out more in our analysis for 27 January 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair started the week with a slight decline
2. All eyes are on the outcome of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its intentions regarding March
3. EURUSD forecast for 27 January 2025: 1.0432 and 1.0385

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.0464 on Monday.

The new week of January will be eventful. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will decide on the interest rate. The markets will primarily focus on signals regarding the March meeting. If inflation declines and approaches the Fed target of 2%, the interest rate will have to be lowered.

Friday’s US statistics showed a slowdown in business activity to a nine-month low in January. This happened amid rising price pressures. At the same time, data was released showing that existing home sales in the country soared to a 10-month high in December.

The market is very positive about Donald Trump’s program “America First”. However, against this backdrop, inflationary pressures have accelerated to a four-month peak. At the same time, companies are hiring at the fastest pace since 2022.

The EURUSD forecast is so far neutral.

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Brent declined to the 76.00 USD support level

Brent quotes continue to decline within a downward correction, with the asset finding support from buyers in the 75.60-76.00 USD area yesterday. More details in our Brent analysis for today, 28 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Current trend: a downward correction continues
2. The US oil inventories statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released today
3. Brent forecast for 28 January 2025: 75.60 and 77.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices declined to a two-week low within the current downward correction. Oil prices are under pressure from concerns about falling demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, and the tough economic policy of Donald Trump, who calls on OPEC to cut oil prices.

The US API oil inventories statistics will be published today, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data scheduled for release tomorrow. A decrease in oil reserves may support Brent quotes, while growth will push the asset prices lower.

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USDJPY: yen’s attempts to strengthen failed

Amid the release of the Bank of Japan meeting minutes and the US Federal Reserve rate decision, the USDJPY pair may continue to rise to the 156.00 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 29 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Minutes of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting
2. The US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
3. USDJPY forecast for 29 January 2025: 156.00 and 154.20

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 29 January 2025 takes into account that the BoJ released the minutes of its December 2024 monetary policy meeting today. During the discussions, Board members focused on assessing the economy’s neutral interest rate to determine the timing of future rate hikes.

One of the meeting attendees noted that the current rate is well below the neutral level and needs to be timely raised. Another one expressed doubts about the use of data from Japan’s long-term deflation period to assess the timing of future rate hikes.

Despite keeping the interest rate unchanged in December due to uncertainty about the US economic policy and wage dynamics, the BoJ raised the rate already in January, which significantly impacted the USDJPY rate.

Market participants continue to monitor the Bank of Japan's neutral rate estimates, which, according to analysts, ranges between 1% and 2.5% although many believe it is closer to 1%.

The USDJPY forecast takes into account that the US Federal Reserve will decide to change the interest rate today. At this stage, analytical agencies are inclined to believe that the interest rate may remain unchanged at 4.5%, and if the actual reading turns out to be different, this will increase volatility in the market.

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Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen

Rising US jobless claims and a potential decline in GDP open the potential for XAUUSD growth to 2,790 USD. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. US Q4 GDP: previously at 3.1%, projected at 2.7%
2. US initial jobless claims: previously at 223 thousand, projected at 224 thousand
3. Current trend: moving upwards
4. XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025: 2,790 and 2,740

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices are consolidating around 2,761 USD, and the pair could continue to form a growth wave in the future.

Today, the US will release Q4 GDP data, which is projected to decrease to 2.7%, down from the previous reading. Given that GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated only for end products, excluding the costs of raw materials, its decline may indicate an economic downturn.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous reading was 223 thousand, and the forecast for 30 January 2024 appears rather optimistic, suggesting an increase in jobless claims to 224 thousand. This is a minor change, and the release of data that aligns with expectations will not have a significant impact on XAUUSD quotes.

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USDJPY strengthens despite expectations of BoJ policy tightening

Although the USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction, the selling pressure remains. The price currently stands at 154.69. More details in our analysis for 31 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said further rate hikes are possible
2. Tokyo core inflation accelerated to 2.5% in January
3. US initial jobless claims decreased to 207 thousand
4. US economy grew by 2.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024
5. USDJPY forecast for 31 January 2025: 153.75 and 152.35

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising on Friday after rebounding from the 153.85 support level. Sellers’s attempts to strengthen the yen remain restrained despite growing expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated that the BoJ is ready to continue tightening monetary policy if economic indicators and inflation align with forecasts.

Tokyo core inflation data confirmed the BoJ’s hawkish stance, with the rate accelerating to 2.5% in January, reaching an 11-month high. The Japanese economy received additional support from strong retail sales, recovering industrial production, and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate.

At the same time, the US economy is sending mixed signals. Although initial jobless claims decreased by 16 thousand to 207 thousand, indicating a stable US labour market, economic growth rates in Q4 were lower than expected. The country’s GDP grew by 2.3% year-on-year, below the projected 2.6%.

US inflation continues to accelerate. The PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.3% from 1.5% in Q3. The core PCE price index, excluding volatile components such as energy and food prices, increased by 2.5% in Q4, aligning with analysts' forecasts.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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USDCAD: the pair opened the week with an upward gap

The USDCAD rate soared to 1.4800 on Monday due to tariffs imposed by the US on goods from Canada and other countries over the weekend. Discover more in our analysis for 3 February 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

1. The US imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods
2. Current trend: a strong uptrend
3. USDCAD forecast for 3 February 2025: 1.4700 and 1.4900

Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar plunged sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on major trading partners last weekend. The US imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on imports from China.

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs, and Mexico signalled that it would consider introducing its own duties on US goods. China, in turn, said it intended to file a WTO case. Investors reacted negatively to growing trade tensions, with the US dollar rising and global stock index futures declining.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team