Japan's upper House Elections

Thanks Merlin, to add this news,...i couldnt believe that it wasnt on calendar for tomorow...so evrybody already trading the jpy crooses to the downside,...nice pips made from day to day,...so what do u think, who will won, and how will that effect the currency...DPJ or LDP?

U already know my opinion, but still will add some views later, after i see some replies...

im adding 2 old analises....i missed only for few hundreds pips...lol

and few links

http://www.sangiin.go.jp/eng/index.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Japan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...election,_2004

http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics...-you-vote-for/

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national...28TDY03004.htm

Yes, Japan's Upper House Election is tomorrow. I already voted by absentee ballot at city hall.
Recently I posted the article about the Upper House Election on Forex news and analysis forum though, disappointingly it seems to have disappeared due to renewal of news forum.

We think the Upper House Election will not effect the currency. The focus of the Upper House Election is public pension problem only. If something effects the JPY, sharp fall in the Dow would effect the Tokyo stock market and the currency.

Frankly, Japan's media likes left-wing policy. They have a prejudice in favor of Democratic Party of Japan, Social Democratic Party(ex-Socialist Party of Japan) or Japanese Communist Party. Well, current Liberal Democratic Party have formed a ruling coalition with Komeito(Komeito's background is religious body of Nichiren sect like a mega church), LDP has stooped to have taken the nation's helm since 1990s...
In addition, DPJ party leader Mr.Ozawa seems to suffer from diabtes mellitus and have a pacemaker due to heart disease, he hasn't participated actively in politics yet.

thanks for reply,u mean this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38497 i apreciate the insights,...i disagree in impact on yen,...it always effects the currency the elections,...i think if there wont be a lot of change, we might see preety quick reversal,...if there would be an oposition getting the power we are going to test the 200 sma dailly at least...i just got that kind of feelling...or maybe there will be reversal preety much the same if any one wins,...so the main question still...

When long on Yen crooses to Catch the Bottom?

Japanese traders' logic *generally* is based on the presumption that if the Democratic party won the election, the incumbent ruling party is going to be wrecked in a way or another, which will lead them to think that JPY will be also accordingly dumped...blah, blah, blah. If the Democratic party won the election, it is likely Japanese crosses will rally in the Tokyo session. But personally, I highly doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, they will again head back south because of the global concern over the subprime loan issues, and other related issues. That said, my strategy is to go long in the Tokyo session if the Democratic party won, but close the position before the London session kicks off.

This is just my two Yen.

...thanks.... monthly chrts doesnt convince to go long on those crooses yet, ive been thinking, there are only 2 safe ways to go long, LONG term...

1. put few buys stop well above current highs...severals
2. 1 call option, expiration somewhere in october, or later this year
3. 1 put for 2 weeks, just in case if this will be the big drop...

....

In the end, Opposition parties got a majority in the Upper House.
Accoding to the news, Democratic Party of Japan leader Mr.Ozawa rests because a doctor recommended him to rest for several days.
(Source:NHK site)
Ruling parties dominate the Lower House, therefore Opposition parties can only take hours to climb to the podium to vote at most.
Personally speaking, I feel a bit messed up because Democratic Party of Japan wants to increase tax assessments concering stocks from 10% to 30% and wants to give foreign residents in Japan political suffrage.

Red:Ruling parties(Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito), Blue:Opposition parties
Read from left to right please, Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party of Japan, Komeito, Japanese Communist Party, Social Democratic Party(former Socialist Party of Japan), The People's New Party, New Party Nippon, other(zero person) and non-partisan.

i am adding one link,....still dont know if we go down or not,...the euro still holding good towards the yen...but if there will be general election we might have another one bull attack from Japan, so if he cant rule the politics in Japan (the premier) and therefore the general election as a must, then the cuurency jen might strenghteen again one more time, this time it will be badly,...but i wouldnt be looking for the euro weaknes here...no way, they might lift the interests SOON...

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ory_id=9587749

Do we know if there will be general election at the end of the year or no?

NOT...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...29/1991282.htm

YES...

http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/012007111933.htm

Abbe replaced financed minister...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2jY&refer=home

While Abe doesn't have to dissolve the Lower House, where his LDP holds a two-thirds majority of seats, until September 2009, analysts have said general elections may happen next year because the DPJ-controlled Upper House may create political instability and policy paralysis.

longs should be safe till 2 weeks prior to general election...next year we have 2 main election, in USA and in Japan, this is going to be interesting, be prepared, go long now while its still below 200 ma dailly, or 52 weekly...next year....it will be 2 major bull attack one from usa, the other from japan...that are my thoughts over that issue.

opala....ABBE RESIGNS!!!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...sJc&refer=home

we need to read this and closly whatch the situation from Japan,...please let us know the details, if u have some insights...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taro_Aso
nice articel...

and 2 more
http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ory_id=9804041

http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ory_id=9804084

quote...
The opposition leader's tactics will come under closer scrutiny from voters now that Mr Abe is no longer the centre of attention. Still, he has destroyed the prime minister, as promised, and intends to fulfil his second promise: to make life hell enough for the LDP to force it to call a general election. It may be just a matter of time.

So as I get it, still uncertanty...no wonder we are flat at 200sma...but when new PM will get 2 power, i dont think, they will wont the general elections right away, i think he will work out, to get the trust to ldp back to at least 45% before he will agree 2 make general elections (and that takes time),...well thats what i would do...i hope he doesnt screw up,....who ever that may be.

You seem to be interested in Japanese politics, I found your sincere efforts quite impressive. Please see my news articles for details. My opinion is on the conservative side, but Japanese media hates conservatives and likes vocal critics(leftist views) who criticizes Japan and US...

As you may know, currently, Mr.Fukuda has the upper hand over Mr.Aso because the LDP's idiosyncratic factional power politics resumed. We Japanese conservatives know many LDP legislators walked into China's money trap and Chinese honey trap. If Mr.Fukuda who has pro-China stance becomes Japan's new prime minister, we would despair at the future of Japan....

I really apreciate your views,...well i do care about the background a lot, especially in politics,...i dont put 2 much on emas crosses, etc..., but more like what the fundamental picture looks like, and if it looks good, and if the tech picture looks good as well, then i go to make money,...so far both looks bad, in japan the general election as a maybe, credit crisis in usa, and mortage crisis also fuelling the market,...nothing looks good,...but ths might turn arround sooner then expected,...today i must check if also the dax, ftse, JPY, are expired as of today, that might turn the tech picture into fundamental one...especially if tomorow Hedlines will look like ASSO new PM of Japan, and evrybody will again say, yes, now things have settled we can go long, and so global long again,...plus if today consumer news will be at least as expected...lets see...and again thx for ur input...

[quote=de123;1596498]especially if tomorow Hedlines will look like ASSO new PM of Japan, and evrybody will again say, yes, now things have settled we can go long, and so global long again,...quote]
I think today news goes like this, tomorow we will have a new premier of Japan,...that sounds to me, like... the credit crisis is coming to the end,...yeap, thats how this sounds to me...: ....i hope for a small pullback in eur/jpy, ...i would like to get 161.66-77s price...if possible..

[quote=de123;1607333] Although I also wished for Mr.Aso who wants to put a premium on Japan's national interests, unfortunately for us(Japanese conservatives), Mr.Fukuda who has pro-China/Korea stance and seem to put his personal political interests above those of our country will become Japan's new prime minister on September 25. Mr.Fukuda will complete his cabinet on the same day, Mr.Tanigaki, Mr.Nikai, Mr.Koga, Mr.Yohei Kono, and Mr.Taku Yamasaki who have close ties to China and both Koreas seem to get into his cabinet. I can't permit him to intend to sell our country. According to news reports, China, Korea and Russia expressed their welcome for Mr.Fukuda, said "Fukuda is compoundable(compromise) politician"...orz

Anyway, we(Japanese conservatives) are alarmed by the seriousness of the problems, media hype(Japanese media is left-wing slant/anti-US and anti-Japan stance), admass, mobocracy,bureaucratic high-handedness and environmental hostile(hegemonic) states(i.e. China, Russia and North Korea). In an extreme case, if Japan were to be unable to count on US(current Japan has to depend on US military forces for Japan's protection), we should transfer our assets to Switzerland.

Um....impassioned glance has rested on EUR and CAD, LOL. Currently, I tend to do scalping and short-term trading for the sake of risk aversion strategy until markets stabilize though.