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Japan's Upper House election & market
(Source: Chase moves written by Mr.Keitaro Hasegawa) Official campaigning kicked off last week for the July 29 Upper House election, Japan is blanketed with campaign cars and campaign appearances until the preceding day. Focus of the Upper House election is the only thing that the ruling parties retain a majority. And all we can say is that the focal issue of the election is "problem of public pension". The biggest point is which the ruling parties or opposition parties can assure themself of a majority combined with uncontested seats in Upper House. Currently, the ruling parties take control of two thirds of Lower House. Therefore, even if the ruling parties lost a majority, it would not lead to political turmoil at once. Least of all Prime Minister Mr.Abe intends to pierce a headwind in the election campaign, he prepares himself for election loss. Conversely, he will take a stance against mechanism that election loss is namely resignation, we think. Therefore, he will be keeping the present administration in power no matter election results. In contrast, Mr.Ichiro Ozawa, head of the Democratic Party of Japan(main opposition party), already had no hesitation in stating declaring his departure from the political scene unless the ruling parties lose a majority. It is difficult for us to figure out if this statement is "just a bluff" or "his real feelings", according to the Liberal Democratic Party legislators. However, persons who know the Democratic Party of Japan considerations point out Ozawa's health problems. They point out his true intention that he strongly feels limitations in the political activities and he takes his retirement into consideration in the wake of Upper House election. Seen in this light, party leader Ozawa's real intention that he insists on reversing the standings between the governing and opposition parties on the last occasion should be made a judgement on his health problems altogether. The Democratic Party of Japan which faces complex party considerations encounters a crisis of a party split at any time. Therefore the existence of party leader Ozawa who performs a weight can prove decisive in avoidance of a party split.
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