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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #5,061
  • Jul 27, 2007 11:22pm Jul 27, 2007 11:22pm
Quoting bobblong
I'm short mini Dow til it reverses.

p.s SeekingLight I am also Demoing this broker Windsor Direct but I doubt that I am ever going to send them any cash even though they are only a 40 minute flight away from here and it would be rather easy to visit.

Does anyone know of a MT4 supportive broker that has Metals, Futures and Forex all bundled up like these guys?

pps. Their forex quotes seem to be way different than Interbank FX at any given time!
try northfinance
Take a report.
  • #5,062
  • Jul 28, 2007 8:12am Jul 28, 2007 8:12am
Quoting marketwavez
can you please post another FTSE chart showing the Double Top like you did yesterday ?
thanx alot
Why another one? What's wrong with the first?
  • #5,063
  • Jul 28, 2007 7:45pm Jul 28, 2007 7:45pm
Does the past two weeks bars count as a DBHLC ?? I ask because the pip difference between the highs of both bars on my charts is 9 pips. Is this too much, considering the time frame, to count as DBHLC ??
  • #5,064
  • Jul 28, 2007 9:17pm Jul 28, 2007 9:17pm
At a very important SR line. Pinbar up could be significant. Or, on a bearish move down followed by a retest of the line, could be interesting.
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  • #5,065
  • Jul 29, 2007 6:26am Jul 29, 2007 6:26am
SeekingLight,

I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.

Kevin
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  • #5,066
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:02pm Jul 29, 2007 2:02pm
Not sure how many of you trade or even have this pair but here goes...

Pin bar at the 50 fib of recent swing high and its also at a major s/r level (you can only see this partially in the chart - look left to May)

I will be taking that short on a break below.
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  • #5,067
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:35pm Jul 29, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting Kaysole
SeekingLight,

I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.

Kevin

Hi,

I have been wondering the same thing. I'm curious as to others' opinions on this, but it looks like profit taking to me.

Yet another reason to wait for a good daily or weekly setup when going against the trend. Oh well, live and learn.

-Paul
  • #5,068
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:05pm Jul 29, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting Kaysole
SeekingLight,

I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.

Kevin

Hi Kevin
Sure, anyone is always welcome to ask anytime. If I'm around, not currently facing a grumpiness attack or suffering from any other sort of ailment I'll try my best to help.
I assume most of the pins you took last week were on a small timeframe and had something to do with the JPY or exotic/high yielding pairs?

But I'm not going to use the fundamentals excuse.

Plainly put and just going from the chart it's an okay looking pin bar, it triggered okay, there was even a SECOND bullish pin bar that formed a bit after it, and yet price still took a beating. Tough luck I guess.

What you could have done is once that second bar formed that tiny tiny mini bearish PB right after it, you could have moved up your stop just 10 pips below that. Would have saved you most your cash and you really don't want the very next bar after your pin to be another pin against you..

A bullish bar is much preferable

As for the extreme nosedive being risky. Well, let's put it this way. Actually a very rash move before a pin bar usually means a good chance that the move back can be just as swift. So it doesn't make the pins bad. Remember, we don't want our pins in the middle of clutter and traffic, so steep drops aren't the worst scenario.

You COULD argue I guess that if normal behavior for the pair is to have 180ish pips a day and it suddenly moves 360 instead DOWNWARDS, that you might not want to step in the way just on the day that it behaves erratically and extremely strongly bearish. But that's already far far too involved and discretionary and so forth. Also it might go differently next time.

So keep it simple. It was an okay looking PB, if you had a reason to take it along with s/r and fibs or any other sort of confluence like a TL or similiar so that it didn't just occur "in the middle of thin air", then it was okay to take it, simply going by the look of it. The moving of the stop in this case probably wouldn't have been a bad idea as mentioned.
Other than that - you can't have 100% winners =)


Also please remember that even if you only risk 1% per trade, if you put on 10 trades at the same time all on the same type of pairs (xxxJPY for example)you still have 10% risked on a certain currency. Not a great idea, because if you're wrong about where that currency is going, you're wrong across the board. It's a cunning way of fooling yourself into thinking you're keeping risk low while really you're just disguising it under 50 positions. I sometimes use that trick myself ;p

Much nicer to simply pick a favorite, adjust your position accordingly and hold that one's hand

Hope this all helped at least a little bit, I always feel a little bit like I am using heavy artillery to shoot down ants from buildings ;p

Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,069
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:06pm Jul 29, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting Kaysole
I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.
Kevin
Hey Kevin,

I also took a couple of the 4H pins on the JPY pairs.
And IMO, these trades were a little risky. That's why I didn't take more and why I reduced my position size a little bit.
They were risky in my mind because of the very strong and sudden down move for all those pairs. Factor in that it was Friday (which sometimes is a crazy day in the market) and that increases the riskiness.
So even though they looked good and could've been the sign of the prices returning back into the regular uptrend, there was too much Selling strength at the end of the day.
We'll see what this week brings.

Tom

PS: I agree with what Seeking said. Usually an opposite move from the trend that then creates a Pin bar is a good thing. In this case it was a little too strong. For ex. the EURJPY had 5 consecutive down days. That's a little too much. (especialy for a 4H pin. A daily pin would've been great)
  • #5,070
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:08pm Jul 29, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting Kaysole
SeekingLight,

I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.

Kevin
Seeking told me last week that I shouldn't be trying to stem a sharp two day fall in the carry trades with a 1hr bullish setup.

I think it's all about looking at the timeframe you are on. Just because the daily and weekly trends are up does not mean that you should be positioning long on the 4h timeframe, in my opinion. Not unless you have other supporting areas of confluence.

Look at the Nasdaq in 1999. Monthly was up so what are you going to do when it falls sharply on the weekly and daily, go long?

That sharp fall that preceeded your setup will no doubt have told you that something is very wrong and that traders are exiting the carry pairs in a hurry - not only that but everything went to hell last week. The Dow and the Dax got hammered and Bonds went to the moon. You have to be aware of these things when making a decision.
  • #5,071
  • Jul 29, 2007 3:18pm Jul 29, 2007 3:18pm
hello kevin, i dont know if this was demo or real money but i will use your post to talk a bit. you may or may not apply to my talking points so this is not directed at you im just using your post to convey a few thoughts.
im trying to be honest here not mean or cendescending.


1. anyone trading 4 hour time frames or lower i would ask them this. did they go thru a full 3 to 6 month demo process showing competence and profit on WEEKLY AND DAILY CHARTS before going live?

2. did they then fund a real account and show real money profit for several months on these large time frames before even considering any lower time frame?

2. if 1 and 2 were completed and they are now trading 4 hour or lower did that time frame go thru a full demo process to prove they could understand the nuances and difficulties associated with lower time frames?

this is a business folks and not treating it like one is fatal. 95 percent of new traders that dont follow a process similar to the one above are doomed. very few do and thats why very few make it past the first 6 months. not doing it is why new traders blow account after account and this whole thing turns into one nightmare after another. i cant answer the question of whether or not a year or two of patience and practice are worth it to any one individual but if its not save your money because your odds of building an account long term is almost 0.

once again k this has nothing to do with you i just like to use posts similar to yours to talk about a subject that is engrained in every fiber of my body. this thread has helped many people but what i just wrote is far more important than the actual trading material.

jim



Quoting Kaysole
SeekingLight,

I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.

Kevin
  • #5,072
  • Jul 29, 2007 5:17pm Jul 29, 2007 5:17pm
To SeekingLight, Tom, the wizard and Jim: thank you very much in taking the time to answer my question. Much love goes to all of you. Stay healthy.

P.S.: SeekingLight, you stated that it was an okay looking pinbar. I assume that means it wasn't very good. Could you clarify a little on that please?

Kevin
  • #5,073
  • Jul 29, 2007 6:37pm Jul 29, 2007 6:37pm
Quoting james16
hello kevin, i dont know if this was demo or real money but i will use your post to talk a bit. you may or may not apply to my talking points so this is not directed at you im just using your post to convey a few thoughts.
im trying to be honest here not mean or cendescending.


1. anyone trading 4 hour time frames or lower i would ask them this. did they go thru a full 3 to 6 month demo process showing competence and profit on WEEKLY AND DAILY CHARTS before going live?

2. did they then fund a real account and show real money profit for several months on these large time frames before even considering any lower time frame?

2. if 1 and 2 were completed and they are now trading 4 hour or lower did that time frame go thru a full demo process to prove they could understand the nuances and difficulties associated with lower time frames?

this is a business folks and not treating it like one is fatal. 95 percent of new traders that dont follow a process similar to the one above are doomed. very few do and thats why very few make it past the first 6 months. not doing it is why new traders blow account after account and this whole thing turns into one nightmare after another. i cant answer the question of whether or not a year or two of patience and practice are worth it to any one individual but if its not save your money because your odds of building an account long term is almost 0.

once again k this has nothing to do with you i just like to use posts similar to yours to talk about a subject that is engrained in every fiber of my body. this thread has helped many people but what i just wrote is far more important than the actual trading material.

jim
I have just came across your thread today, and have read/studied the first 30+ pages with great interest. Jim you have put so much work into this that one hopes and prays for you to have a real sense of achievement and benifits far in excess your expectations. I do intend to subscribe to the pf shortly. You have indeed came across as a commited teacher and communicator with the real interest in the exciting subject of trading. I cant believe how many postings you have unswered!!! I have been facsinated with trading for the last 6 years and can easly understand your fascination with it for a much longer time. Thank you for the offer you made available to learn from your experience and the experience of the team working with you. It is late in the UK, so I shall do the signing to the pf tomorrow.
Best wishes,
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #5,074
  • Jul 29, 2007 8:40pm Jul 29, 2007 8:40pm
thank you 2.

jim

Quoting 2be
I have just came across your thread today, and have read/studied the first 30+ pages with great interest. Jim you have put so much work into this that one hopes and prays for you to have a real sense of achievement and benifits far in excess your expectations. I do intend to subscribe to the pf shortly. You have indeed came across as a commited teacher and communicator with the real interest in the exciting subject of trading. I cant believe how many postings you have unswered!!! I have been facsinated with trading for the last 6 years and can easly understand your fascination with it for a much longer time. Thank you for the offer you made available to learn from your experience and the experience of the team working with you. It is late in the UK, so I shall do the signing to the pf tomorrow.
Best wishes,
2be
  • #5,075
  • Jul 30, 2007 1:18am Jul 30, 2007 1:18am
Quoting Kaysole
To SeekingLight, Tom, the wizard and Jim: thank you very much in taking the time to answer my question. Much love goes to all of you. Stay healthy.

P.S.: SeekingLight, you stated that it was an okay looking pinbar. I assume that means it wasn't very good. Could you clarify a little on that please?

Kevin

Thanks Kev, you too

As for the "okay". Hm. Well I don't know, looking at it just made it seem "okay" to me.
Maybe it's because I'm not sure what other factors come in for confluence or how it looked compared to the other bars in size or something.

I'm not really certain what it is. I just got up as well(8 AM here).
The bar itself is alright as I said with the open and close level and a long nose. As in the previous post, all that's left to matter is that you something to give it a reason why it should be going up again => confluence.
There need to be people around to want to buy this so confluence means you can find at least 2 or more reasons why certain folks would want to chip in along with you. S/R is nothing but a "proven" area of buying/selling interest, as are fibs, TLs and so forth. And the more people think that this is a good place to buy, the more likely price will rise.


I wouldn't try to find 50 reasons you shoulda known ahead of time why this exact one would fail or one of the others. You won't work it out by trying to outsmart it this time.
Be sure you keep your total exposure low, that you have practiced the timeframe you are trading on and KNOW it's pecularities, shapes, sizes and forms just like Jim pointed out.
You'll end up being able to judge yourself whether you feel you took a gamble or whether a trade fit all the criteria you yourself have found to work for YOU.
And that's really where we all want to go

Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,076
  • Edited 4:16am Jul 30, 2007 4:13am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting the_wizard
Not sure how many of you trade or even have this pair but here goes...

Pin bar at the 50 fib of recent swing high and its also at a major s/r level (you can only see this partially in the chart - look left to May)

I will be taking that short on a break below.
This looks really good wiz,
unfortunately I dont have this pair on my demo acct. Can you post an update plse? Raz
ps, whats the spread on this pair, is it outrageous?
Never say never.
  • #5,077
  • Jul 30, 2007 5:09am Jul 30, 2007 5:09am
Quoting SeekingLight
Thanks Kev, you too

As for the "okay". Hm. Well I don't know, looking at it just made it seem "okay" to me.
Maybe it's because I'm not sure what other factors come in for confluence or how it looked compared to the other bars in size or something.

I'm not really certain what it is. I just got up as well(8 AM here).
The bar itself is alright as I said with the open and close level and a long nose. As in the previous post, all that's left to matter is that you something to give it a reason why it should be going up again => confluence.
There need to be people around to want to buy this so confluence means you can find at least 2 or more reasons why certain folks would want to chip in along with you. S/R is nothing but a "proven" area of buying/selling interest, as are fibs, TLs and so forth. And the more people think that this is a good place to buy, the more likely price will rise.


I wouldn't try to find 50 reasons you shoulda known ahead of time why this exact one would fail or one of the others. You won't work it out by trying to outsmart it this time.
Be sure you keep your total exposure low, that you have practiced the timeframe you are trading on and KNOW it's pecularities, shapes, sizes and forms just like Jim pointed out.
You'll end up being able to judge yourself whether you feel you took a gamble or whether a trade fit all the criteria you yourself have found to work for YOU.
And that's really where we all want to go

Take care,

SeekingLight
I completely understand what you're getting at. So the pinbar being "okay" means that the criteria for a pinbar to be "great" is not just the appearance of it, but other factors are involved as well. Thanks for the great reply my friend.

Stay healthy,

Kevin
  • #5,078
  • Jul 30, 2007 5:44am Jul 30, 2007 5:44am
For Razldazl:
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  • #5,079
  • Jul 30, 2007 5:53am Jul 30, 2007 5:53am
Quoting lava
For Razldazl:
what spread have you got on north finance? take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #5,080
  • Jul 30, 2007 5:55am Jul 30, 2007 5:55am
Hi,

There is one reason I do not like this trade. That is the small but deadly PB on the weekly we had recently. That is working well.
I think you would have to be nimble with this one but with 50 pip spreads on NF it is a killer! MB currently 12 pips.
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