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MTF Engulf / Engulf fail

  • #6,241
  • Jan 13, 2025 8:15am Jan 13, 2025 8:15am
The US session today is very sloppy which is quite unusual.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #6,242
  • Jan 13, 2025 8:51am Jan 13, 2025 8:51am
Quoting fxpider
The US session today is very sloppy which is quite unusual.
US session, it just started 20 minutes ago.
I might be wrong , I have been wrong before
  • #6,243
  • Jan 13, 2025 5:11pm Jan 13, 2025 5:11pm
EJ Break of Structure. Will only be looking for longs.
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  • #6,244
  • Jan 13, 2025 5:27pm Jan 13, 2025 5:27pm
Quoting fxpider
The US session today is very sloppy which is quite unusual.
Monday.
Tiny gain.
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PA Return This Week: 49.7%
  • #6,245
  • Jan 13, 2025 8:19pm Jan 13, 2025 8:19pm
my yesterday damage control struggle.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,246
  • Jan 13, 2025 8:23pm Jan 13, 2025 8:23pm
Quoting Inthebox
my yesterday damage control struggle. {image}
Lots of intestinal fortitude to hold for a 140 pip drawdown.
  • #6,247
  • Jan 13, 2025 8:31pm Jan 13, 2025 8:31pm
Quoting ChinoCop
{quote} Lots of intestinal fortitude to hold for a 140 pip drawdown.
there are times when you thought that the level you had chosen will hold.
even when using higher time frames.
we simply do not know which level will hold.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,248
  • Jan 13, 2025 8:44pm Jan 13, 2025 8:44pm
in this example, look at how effective it is to use the ef first, then the eg combination.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,249
  • Jan 13, 2025 10:07pm Jan 13, 2025 10:07pm
2025 US tariffs.
"As Mr Lee Kuan Yew used to say: ‘When elephants fight, the grass suffers, but when they make love, the grass suffers also’"
the bottom line is that US consumers will have less purchasing power.

What Is a Tariff and Who Pays It? Spoiler Alert: You Will
https://www.usnews.com/news/national...alert-you-will
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,250
  • Edited 10:47pm Jan 13, 2025 10:33pm | Edited 10:47pm
this week's targets above.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,251
  • Jan 13, 2025 11:10pm Jan 13, 2025 11:10pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} there are times when you thought that the level you had chosen will hold. even when using higher time frames. we simply do not know which level will hold. {image}
indeed it is very hard to know which level will hold. For me another headache is choosing the proper TC in CMP.
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Here's an example. I have taken a buy trade when CMP reached the first TC (red arrow), the price went up a bit and dropped until my SL hit.
So my question is, how to choose a proper TC? because we focus on CMP only, so let's say when I open the chart, both TC zones have appeared and I would focus on the latter (orange arrow), then no CE so no trade. But I opened the chart, saw the first TC and there was CE in M5, so I went for long but hit SL. BTW, the last TC zone (black box) was the best. It is really tricky to choose a good TC.

Fellow traders, pease share your opinions on this, thanks.
Trading is not easy
  • #6,252
  • Edited Jan 14, 2025 12:09am Jan 13, 2025 11:58pm | Edited Jan 14, 2025 12:09am
Quoting xiaotiao
{quote} indeed it is very hard to know which level will hold. For me another headache is choosing the proper TC in CMP. {image} Here's an example. I have taken a buy trade when CMP reached the first TC (red arrow), the price went up a bit and dropped until my SL hit. So my question is, how to choose a proper TC? because we focus on CMP only, so let's say when I open the chart, both TC zones have appeared and I would focus on the latter (orange arrow), then no CE so no trade. But I opened the chart, saw the first TC and there was CE in M5, so I went...
my view is that the ideal set up is ef pullback to eg.
but the problem is very few traders would wait for that.

ideal but not perfect as there are many things happening in the surrounding.
we also have the discount zone which is "more ideal" with fib 62 and fvg.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,253
  • Jan 14, 2025 12:29am Jan 14, 2025 12:29am
Quoting xiaotiao
{quote} indeed it is very hard to know which level will hold. For me another headache is choosing the proper TC in CMP. {image} Here's an example. I have taken a buy trade when CMP reached the first TC (red arrow), the price went up a bit and dropped until my SL hit. So my question is, how to choose a proper TC? because we focus on CMP only, so let's say when I open the chart, both TC zones have appeared and I would focus on the latter (orange arrow), then no CE so no trade. But I opened the chart, saw the first TC and there was CE in M5, so I went...
I don't trade GJ so I don't know how it behaves. If we're using Engulfing/Engulfing Fail you might have to draw multiple zones. Also, I would use fibonacci to at least approximate where the best target will be. Looking at your example you might have to incorporate support and resistance (neon line) as well if you want an exact entry.
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  • #6,254
  • Jan 14, 2025 2:16am Jan 14, 2025 2:16am
Quoting xiaotiao
{quote} indeed it is very hard to know which level will hold. For me another headache is choosing the proper TC in CMP. {image} Here's an example. I have taken a buy trade when CMP reached the first TC (red arrow), the price went up a bit and dropped until my SL hit. So my question is, how to choose a proper TC? because we focus on CMP only, so let's say when I open the chart, both TC zones have appeared and I would focus on the latter (orange arrow), then no CE so no trade. But I opened the chart, saw the first TC and there was CE in M5, so I went...
In my opinion, one can employ the following to filter out bad TC and increase the odds, but nothing works 100% all the time.

  1. Time (Killzone /session OPEN / active hours)
  2. Successful retest (rejection) of the EG/EF zone in the same TF
  3. LTF CE
  4. 2 HTF for direction.

Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #6,255
  • Jan 14, 2025 2:30am Jan 14, 2025 2:30am
giving a different perspective.
few days ago 1Hour did a w1/h1 combo set up.
here's the d1/h1 combo set up.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,256
  • Jan 14, 2025 2:47am Jan 14, 2025 2:47am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} my view is that the ideal set up is ef pullback to eg. but the problem is very few traders would wait for that. ideal but not perfect as there are many things happening in the surrounding. we also have the discount zone which is "more ideal" with fib 62 and fvg. {image}
the set up held.
now we have to see whether the current eg will turn to ef.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,257
  • Jan 14, 2025 2:52am Jan 14, 2025 2:52am
by now from the above examples we should know that
the small small time frames set up is not necessary good for our emotional trading.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,258
  • Jan 14, 2025 3:09am Jan 14, 2025 3:09am
Quoting Inthebox
by now from the above examples we should know that the small small time frames set up is not necessary good for our emotional trading.
I agree. We need to incorporate scanning the higher time frame charts to see the bigger picture. Those setups are, at times, not visible on the 5 minute charts. Here are 2 setups that are very clear on the 30 minute chart.
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  • #6,259
  • Jan 14, 2025 4:24am Jan 14, 2025 4:24am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} my view is that the ideal set up is ef pullback to eg. but the problem is very few traders would wait for that. ideal but not perfect as there are many things happening in the surrounding. we also have the discount zone which is "more ideal" with fib 62 and fvg. {image}
there you are, the so called "more ideal" level.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #6,260
  • Jan 14, 2025 4:26am Jan 14, 2025 4:26am
as usual, i go out for meeting and gathering every tuesday evenings.
trade safe.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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