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I Finally Figured it Out!

  • #21
  • Jan 6, 2025 6:05am Jan 6, 2025 6:05am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Really? Can you explain where and how you can read this data? Please
This question really proves my point.

Making trading decisions based on data where you can't know how long traders have been holding their trades is a bad idea. Taking a trade based on retail sentiment you're trading data that could be seconds or years old.
  • #22
  • Edited 7:49am Jan 6, 2025 7:04am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting here2there
I have often failed as a trader. Why? Most retail traders lose 75% or more of the time, and I was no different. I failed because I made trades based on feelings instead of logic. I would think that prices couldn’t go any lower or higher and act on that belief. Instead of going with the trend, I tried to catch tops or bottoms. I even started to think Forex was a scam. But the truth is, Forex isn’t a scam—I was just trading like a fool. Think about this: if retail traders are wrong 75% of the time or more, following the crowd will likely lead to failure....
You've got an idea with quite some merit, but you don't seem to have figured it out just yet.

This guy, on the other hand, has and he has pursued contrarian trading as a consistently successful fund manager for years:

https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/about/

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Inserted Video
  • #23
  • Jan 6, 2025 8:27am Jan 6, 2025 8:27am
Quoting medici
{quote} You've got an idea with quite some merit, but you don't seem to have figured it out just yet. This guy, on the other hand, has and he has pursued contrarian trading as a consistently successful fund manager for years: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/about/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0Vw...lybyB0cmFkaW5n https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxpB3B0yWF0
I will watch these videos when I have more time. Thank you for sharing. If you have anything else (that is not common knowledge) you would like to share, feel free to do so.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #24
  • Jan 6, 2025 8:38am Jan 6, 2025 8:38am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I will watch these videos when I have more time. Thank you for sharing. If you have anything else (that is not common knowledge) you would like to share, feel free to do so.
Do not trust anything you watch on YouTube about trading.

They all have to sell something to survive.

He is selling, guess what? "Crowded Market Report", which is a total crap.
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  • #25
  • Jan 6, 2025 9:25am Jan 6, 2025 9:25am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Do not trust anything you watch on YouTube about trading. They all have to sell something to survive. He is selling, guess what? "Crowded Market Report", which is a total crap. {image}
I don't mind paying for information that is useful. What I don't like is overcomplicated trading strategies like ICT, for example. I don't trust ICT.

Another thing I don't like are useless strategies that are based on lagging indicators or candlestick patterns (most no longer work). Supply and Demand strategies have some merit, but more often than not, the zones don't hold.

I think most of what is being taught is garbage that either never worked or no longer works due to it becoming common knowledge.

It is important to keep in mind that highly sophisticated algos are likely being used in the markets by banks and institutions to hunt retail. If true, this makes it very difficult to find an edge in the Forex market. Algos could be programmed to counter most mechanical strategies the majority of retail traders rely on. This is why the idea of sentiment trading is so attractive to me, for if retail loses most of the time, then it makes sense to do the opposite of what retail is doing.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #26
  • Jan 6, 2025 9:52am Jan 6, 2025 9:52am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Check your chart. What do you think ? Market just reach day target 13 hrs later. Btw I don't use "market sentiment", fancy name strategies. Cheers.
I still don't get it. If you will, you can send me a private message with details on what your strategy is, that is, if you don't want to go into details on here and expose your strategy publicly. If you don't want to do this, then I understand. When you find a trading strategy that works, it's best not to blow a trumpet to let everyone know about it, for then it will likely stop working at some point as more and more people will be using it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #27
  • Jan 6, 2025 10:09am Jan 6, 2025 10:09am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This sentence is oxymoron. Make up your mind, don't get caught halfway. SD is crap. Cheers
You are right. It either works or it doesn't work. If it doesn't work more than 50% of the time, then it's likely coincidental when it does work. Or the zones are not being drawn right. But assuming the zones are being drawn correctly, and it doesn't work more than 50% of the time, that suggests it is just another nonsensical strategy based on hopeium.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #28
  • Jan 6, 2025 10:26am Jan 6, 2025 10:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Read this guy. {quote} Seldom post, lurks in silence. Smart guy. I say this. Throw away TA into the trash bin. First important step to the road to win. Read the message(first post) on my thread to all traders. No TA can tell the trader what's going to happen 13hrs into the future. Go figure. Cheers
Blob has a valid point.

I see it this way:
1. People are often eager to share trading strategies because they have low self-esteem and want to be noticed (wrong motivating factor and not worth the trouble).
2. They have something to sell (likely because they are not as successful at trading as they are at selling a dream).
3. They are generous. There's nothing wrong with generosity. However, if you have a secret for success in trading in the markets, why would you blow a trumpet and give it away if exposing it would lead to losing your livelihood? Generous? Yes, but also foolish.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #29
  • Edited Jan 7, 2025 2:04am Jan 6, 2025 10:33am | Edited Jan 7, 2025 2:04am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Blob has a valid point. I see it this way: 1. People are often eager to share trading strategies because they have low self-esteem and want to be noticed (wrong motivating factor and not worth the trouble). 2. They have something to sell (likely because they are not as successful at trading as they are at selling a dream). 3. They are generous. There's nothing wrong with generosity. However, if you have a secret for success in trading in the markets, why would you blow a trumpet and give it away if exposing it would lead to losing your livelihood?...
One of the very few YouTube videos about trading and investing that make sense.
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"And people seek out the weakness of fellow man and take advantage." ..... Charlie Munger

"You take the high road, it's never crowded." ..... Warren Buffet
Know what you trade
  • #30
  • Edited Jan 7, 2025 4:28am Jan 6, 2025 12:33pm | Edited Jan 7, 2025 4:28am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I will watch these videos when I have more time. Thank you for sharing. If you have anything else (that is not common knowledge) you would like to share, feel free to do so.
You're welcome. And I didn't mean to promote Jason Shapiro, but he does have a rather impressive track record, and he's making good points in these videos.

As to uncommon knowledge, I suppose I've got some, but I'm not doing education, and why share hard earned insights with strangers for free. But let me share something that I use. Here's a 70 period Hull moving average on a Nasdaq 2 minute chart. Nice for reversals. I suppose that's uncommon knowledge.
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  • #31
  • Jan 6, 2025 1:01pm Jan 6, 2025 1:01pm
Quoting medici
{quote} You're welcome. And I didn't mean to promoteJason Shapiro, but he does have a rather impressive track record, and he's making good points in these videos. As to uncommon knowledge, I suppose I've got some, but I'm not doing education, and why share hard earned insights with strangers for free. But let me share something that I use. Here's a 70 period Hull moving average on a Nasdaq 2 minute chart. Nice for reversals. I suppose that's uncommon knowledge. {image}
Nothing against you, just relating to the subject of this thread,

This is not a real trade, just a drawn line and some words written on the hindsight(after the fact) chart. Anyone, even a child can do these drawings.
  • #32
  • Jan 6, 2025 2:05pm Jan 6, 2025 2:05pm
If you are going to use volume or market sentiment you need to understand that your broker only supplies data based on their clients. There is no centralised data for FX on all brokerages available in realtime. It can still be useful but make sure you at least rely on the data from the largest brokers.....IC markets etc
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #33
  • Jan 6, 2025 2:47pm Jan 6, 2025 2:47pm
Quoting medici
{quote} You're welcome. And I didn't mean to promoteJason Shapiro, but he does have a rather impressive track record, and he's making good points in these videos. As to uncommon knowledge, I suppose I've got some, but I'm not doing education, and why share hard earned insights with strangers for free. But let me share something that I use. Here's a 70 period Hull moving average on a Nasdaq 2 minute chart. Nice for reversals. I suppose that's uncommon knowledge. {image}
Nothing uncommon (TF, MA type, length) unfortunately
Basically, measuring the slope of any MA, you can catch smooth/slow reversals or you can do it without MAs at all...
Air force
  • #34
  • Jan 6, 2025 5:45pm Jan 6, 2025 5:45pm
Ken Griffin who is the CEO from Citadel Trading was hauled in front of congress in 2021 to give his testimony in the hearing. Here he stated what basic strategies they use by their traders that turn over 35% of the daily volume in US equities.
Every new prop trader that works in New York, London or elsewhere is trained in using similar strategies as part of their trading program.
The basics of their strategies often relay on one single indicator which works on any financial market.
I use it every day myself to nail A++ setups although it’s not included in my charts I post here on Forex Factory.

A bit of research will quickly reveal what indicator I am talking about.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #35
  • Edited 6:07pm Jan 6, 2025 5:57pm | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting RickM
Ken Griffin who is the CEO from Citadel Trading was hauled in front of congress in 2021 to give his testimony in the hearing. Here he stated what basic strategies they use by their traders that turn over 35% of the daily volume in US equities. Every new prop trader that works in New York, London or elsewhere is trained in using similar strategies as part of their trading program. The basics of their strategies often relay on one single indicator which works on any financial market. I use it every day myself to nail A++ setups although it’s not included...
RickM, you sure it is not A+++ setups? Damn, I thought more of you (I am joking or kidding or joking..ahhh )

Griffin is an insider and pays for order flow. He doesn’t have research, he has algos that front run all trades between the spreads. Great for him and Citadel..no playa hating here.
  • #36
  • Edited 6:30pm Jan 6, 2025 6:15pm | Edited 6:30pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} RickM, you sure it is not A+++ setups? Damn, I thought more of you (I am joking or kidding or joking..ahhh ) Griffin is insider and pays for order flow. He doesn’t have research, he has algos that front run all trades between the spreads. Great for him and Citadel..no playa hating here.
Front running trades isn’t very successful trading model these days with many of HFT firms disappearing due to low profits over the past 10 years. The average size trade by hedge funds is no more than 100 shares per trade which they may repeat for weeks which destroys front running models. The secret of their entry is based often on one single indicator.
Ken Griffin was disclosing what basic strategy they use when trading equities, something we can also use - or should be using.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #37
  • Jan 6, 2025 7:29pm Jan 6, 2025 7:29pm
If trading was as simple as doing the opposite of retail traders or sticking to higher timeframes, most people would already be successful. Markets are more complex than that, with big players, news, and other factors driving price movements. Retail sentiment can give some insight, but it is not a reliable strategy on its own.
  • #38
  • Jan 6, 2025 8:02pm Jan 6, 2025 8:02pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi here2there I think just about every trader with more than 5 years experience has already tried this tactic and unfortunately failed. Here is what is really happening. First of all retail traders are better than professional traders at getting on the right side of the market on any trend. Their fault is they exit very quickly for small profits which is something not registered by the sentiment tool. So 65% of retail traders nail the entry but are gone in average by 43 pips for a nice win. The bad trader stays in and lets the loss grow...
..don't forget that most retail traders are heavily under-capitalised. The reason we go for "small profits" is because regardless of whether you're long/short, the market spikes in both directions to take you out before it moves in that long trend.
  • #39
  • Jan 6, 2025 10:13pm Jan 6, 2025 10:13pm
Quoting Zennie
{quote} ..don't forget that most retail traders are heavily under-capitalised. The reason we go for "small profits" is because regardless of whether you're long/short, the market spikes in both directions to take you out before it moves in that long trend.
I understand what you are saying but the problem is not your bias or lack of trading capital, the problem is retail traders buy or sell in silly spots.
Price spikes because it’s in the barren areas devoid of liquidity where no real trader should be taking positions. Professionals will only buy or sell in Demand or Supply areas where spikes normally end.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #40
  • Jan 6, 2025 10:31pm Jan 6, 2025 10:31pm
Quoting here2there
I have often failed as a trader. Why? Most retail traders lose 75% or more of the time, and I was no different. I failed because I made trades based on feelings instead of logic. I would think that prices couldn’t go any lower or higher and act on that belief. Instead of going with the trend, I tried to catch tops or bottoms. I even started to think Forex was a scam. But the truth is, Forex isn’t a scam—I was just trading like a fool. Think about this: if retail traders are wrong 75% of the time or more, following the crowd will likely lead to failure....
Wow, sounds like you have learned some valuable lessons and yes, patience is definitely the key. But how are you planning to stay consistent with risk management for your new approach?
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