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I've figured out why so many people lose money in Forex 661 replies

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I Finally Figured it Out!

I hobby trade so it can't hurt to be here. Each to their own. Then to your own have a real plan. And to that plan be as complete as possible of what you know and are yet to learn. I got that from a friend who real trades on his own mostly stocks. He's been at it for years. Never trades without his plan. He says everything he does is useful nothing wasted.
Quoting ChelseaR
{quote} Wow, sounds like you have learned some valuable lessons and yes, patience is definitely the key. But how are you planning to stay consistent with risk management for your new approach?
I will not risk more than 2% of my account per trade. I will use ATR for a stop loss, period 14, multiplied by 2. I will attempt to profit 2x my risk. Of course, my take profit target might change depending on market conditions. It could be smaller or greater.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
Quoting Anotan
Want to trade the opposite way or retail? Exit losers quickly and hold on to winners. It's really not hard to find a TE with a 90% win rate and an account balance of -99%. Retail sentiment is a flawed concept, you're making trading decisions based on positions taken weeks or even months ago by traders who can't let a bad positions go.
Quoting Anotan
{quote} This question really proves my point. Making trading decisions based on data where you can't know how long traders have been holding their trades is a bad idea. Taking a trade based on retail sentiment you're trading data that could be seconds or years old.
This comment proves my point, 1st you said the data was taken weeks or months ago, and then 2nd, you said you can't know, so which is it?

I agree with you, just having a discussion here. I have logged sentiment for months and yet could not find any correlation or advantage, it's simply another distraction invented by the made-up BIG BOYS, to divert lowly retail from the main event - PRICE ACTION.
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step All Time Return: -1.0%
Quoting driven18
{quote} Nothing against you, just relating to the subject of this thread, This is not a real trade, just a drawn line and some words written on the hindsight(after the fact) chart. Anyone, even a child can do these drawings.
So you're claiming I didn't take this trade?
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Nothing uncommon (TF, MA type, length) unfortunately Basically, measuring the slope of any MA, you can catch smooth/slow reversals or you can do it without MAs at all...
No, I certainly wouldn't share anything really uncommon, but wanted to at least give a polite reply, which is less common on this forum.

Having said that, much can be gained by experience and careful study, which can then be summarised in indicators and setups, which may be helpful to some. Not least, I like to be lazy rather than to try to be creative when it's not needed.

And the very same MA mentioned above picked the bottom of last week in Nasdaq with minimal effort. More than 700 points up since then.
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Quoting here2there
I have often failed as a trader. Why? Most retail traders lose 75% or more of the time, and I was no different. I failed because I made trades based on feelings instead of logic. I would think that prices couldn’t go any lower or higher and act on that belief. Instead of going with the trend, I tried to catch tops or bottoms. I even started to think Forex was a scam. But the truth is, Forex isn’t a scam—I was just trading like a fool. Think about this: if retail traders are wrong 75% of the time or more, following the crowd will likely lead to failure....
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Hi Dempire.
I dont know if this will help,
Trader sentiment is 75% buy on NZD/USD according to the FXblue free website
If you can see the inserted image above this is the NZD (candlesticks ) currency and the USD currency shown as the line chart on the MATAF free website. This is a 4hr chart and shows the strengh of both currencies.
According to my trading platform on the same 4hr chart there is a gap down 5720 to 5680 ish, is it possible by waiting for price to get to this area, and checking the strengh and weakness of the currencies on MATAF, also using divergence with the MACD/RSI on the lower time frames, that this will give some kind of an edge?
I have to give a lot of credit to T721 for a lot of my thoughts on this post.
Hope this helps
Kind regards
Kev
Quoting here2there
{quote} That's why I wait until it gets to about 75%. Also, you need to be mindful of the major trend—not to trade against it. My plan is to enter on pullbacks using a lower time frame such as H4 or H1. Remember, retail is mostly trading against the major trend hoping to catch a top or a bottom. That's one of the main reasons why they lose so often.
I think retail traders fail because of poor money management and emotions management.
Quoting kevin1959
{quote} {image} Hi Dempire. I dont know if this will help, Trader sentiment is 75% buy on NZD/USD according to the FXblue free website If you can see the inserted image above this is the NZD (candlesticks ) currency and the USD currency shown as the line chart on the MATAF free website. This is a 4hr chart and shows the strengh of both currencies. According to my trading platform on the same 4hr chart there is a gap down 5720 to 5680 ish, is it possible by waiting for price to get to this area, and checking the strengh and weakness of the currencies...
Sorry Dempire
This post was not for you.
It was a reply toe here2there
Kind regards
Kev
Quoting medici
{quote} No, I certainly wouldn't share anything really uncommon, but wanted to at least give a polite reply, which is less common on this forum. Having said that, much can be gained by experience and careful study, which can then be summarised in indicators and setups, which may be helpful to some. Not least, I like to be lazy rather than to try to be creative when it's not needed. And the very same MA mentioned above picked the bottom of last week in Nasdaq with minimal effort. More than 700 points up since then. {image}
What people have in common is we share here (or not) common vs. uncommon misconceptions.
Indicators are useful for some purposes (entry/trailing sl/what else?) under specific market conditions. Just like super-duper top secret $10k+ proprietary systems, order flow data, name any.
Does any of it has specific predictive power or no particular indi/top-secret-system has statistical significance one vs. another?

Thanks for 'survivor bias' chart.
Here's another one with 'specific' MA +/- some %price
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Quoting medici
{quote} No, I certainly wouldn't share anything really uncommon, but wanted to at least give a polite reply, which is less common on this forum. Having said that, much can be gained by experience and careful study, which can then be summarised in indicators and setups, which may be helpful to some. Not least, I like to be lazy rather than to try to be creative when it's not needed. And the very same MA mentioned above picked the bottom of last week in Nasdaq with minimal effort. More than 700 points up since then. {image}
Hi Medici.
Have you looked at Lauras roadmap thread on FF ?
You mind find something useful on there, especilly her journal.
Kind regards
Kev
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} What people have in common is we share here (or not) common vs. uncommon misconceptions. Indicators are useful for some purposes (entry/trailing sl/what else?) under specific market conditions. Just like super-duper top secret $10k+ proprietary systems, order flow data, name any. Does any of it has specific predictive power or no particular indi/top-secret-system has statistical significance one vs. another? Thanks for 'survivor bias' chart.
To answer your question:

1. No, I haven't seen anything shared here that has statistical significance, but there are people here who have traded for years with statistically significant track records.

2. Yes, there are super duper systems, with statistical significance, on offer for much less than $10k. In fact, I know a guy named Kenneth who currently is offering his for $200 .... in a limited number to a select audience.

But I agree with you, indicators and systems are not what's missing. Back in 2009, when I worked in London and fx trading had gone amazingly well for quite some time, I decided to teach my system, for free, to a couple of dozen people. One guy did amazingly well, and could use his track record to get a job at an energy hedge fund. Another guy, who is representative for the rest, tripled his money in three weeks in a demo account, but blew up in three days when trading his own money. In other words, pretty much everyone screwed up in spite of a backtested (avoiding survivorship bias) and statistically verifiable method.

How much worse on a forum like this where the blind are leading the blind.
Quoting kevin1959
{quote} Hi Medici. Have you looked at Lauras roadmap thread on FF ? You mind find something useful on there, especilly her journal. Kind regards Kev
Hi Kev, no, I generally don't engage here, but posted as I thought the original poster of this thread deserved some encouragement .But happy to take a look at Laura's stuff if you like. Do you have a link?
[quote=medici;15108217]{quote} Hi Kev, no, I generally don't engage here, but posted as I thought the original poster of this thttps://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/15052273#post15052273hread deserved some encouragement .But happy to take a look at Laura's stuff if you like. Do you have a lin
Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets
Just A Journal
Hi medici.
This is it. Just reading the first few page will tell if it is useful to you or not.
Kind regards
Kev
Quoting kevin1959
Quoting medici
{quote} Hi Kev, no, I generally don't engage here, but posted as I thought the original poster of this thttps://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/15052273#post15052273hread deserved some encouragement .But happy to take a look at Laura's stuff if you like. Do you have a lin Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets Just A Journal Hi medici. This is it. Just reading the first few
...
Thanks Kevin, looks like she has shared her learning journey for the benefit of others, which is as good as it gets here. Do you find it useful? Any unanswered questions?
Quoting BWilliam
This pic is cropped from a 2m chart on 2 January day low. A 2m 70 period hull MA is claimed to show the turning point of a current 700 pips bull run. Does this claim make sense besides sensationalising the prowess of this magic power indicator? Why are people so gullible falling for such cheap trick? Can you imagine the ARTWORK effort to scroll back 2m chart history to find the perfect spot, make a perfect crop, paint a nice circle just to mesmerize you? Come on, show the complete hull pic including the whipsaws. And how did you know that this 2m...
Excellent! You have completely misunderstood pretty much everything. Well done. I have made none of the claims you criticise, but have taken both setups depicted.

But why would I engage further with someone who has no constructive aim, but focuses on the personal rather than the professional.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} That's what you wrote. Same 2m 70 period hull. I'm talking purely technical. What's your technical point with this hull specific settings and timeframe? Clarify both your posts. Cheers
But, I'm making no technical point! And I am under no obligation to clarify anything, but as you ask so politely how couldn't I?

Under certain conditions, which we may call slow reversal, I find that HMA70@2m can be useful to get me in with very low risk compared to opportunity. And those conditions occur, in my experience, frequently enough not to be ignored. Still, that MA is not usually on my chart, as I typically focus on other things which are, let's say, price action related.

Further questions?
are these traders market makers? can these traders move the price? if yes then OK. if not then means nothing ...
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Quoting medici
{quote}{quote} Thanks Kevin, looks like she has shared her learning journey for the benefit of others, which is as good as it gets here. Do you find it useful? Any unanswered questions?
Hi medici
Yes I have found these threads useful, and she is a very generous person to share all of this.
Way back in twenty 2012 I took a few paid lessons from a mentor called Julie Hatch called Price action trading equation.
this method was based on the one minute linegraph, daily pivots, and whole numbers. I got a morning, afternoon, and on the night the whole chart with all the explanations set on it. Julie never used moving averages, but over the years I find them really useful.
Julie was never on FF and as far as I know does not teach anymore. I i can work out how to do it, and if I am allowed to do it, I will try and put one or two charts on here that I printed off, as it might be of some help to someone.
Thank you very much for asking, I have no unanswered questions for now.
Kind regards
Kev
Quoting kevin1959
{quote} Hi medici Yes I have found these threads useful, and she is a very generous person to share all of this. Way back in twenty 2012 I took a few paid lessons from a mentor called Julie Hatch called Price action trading equation. this method was based on the one minute linegraph, daily pivots, and whole numbers. I got a morning, afternoon, and on the night the whole chart with all the explanations set on it. Julie never used moving averages, but over the years I find them really useful. Julie was never on FF and as far as I know does not teach...
Sounds like you are in a good place What do you trade? Fx, indices, something else? For me it's all Nasdaq futures.
Quoting medici
{quote} Hi Kev, no, I generally don't engage here, but posted as I thought the original poster of this thread deserved some encouragement...
I appreciate that! Such thoughtfulness toward others is rarely seen on FF.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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