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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #601
  • Dec 10, 2024 11:37am Dec 10, 2024 11:37am
Last long at 360 to 430
A bit risky, got 70 points on the first opening position, all together there were 16 adds to that long, that is not unusual for me
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #602
  • Dec 10, 2024 11:47am Dec 10, 2024 11:47am
Quoting 2be
Last long at 360 to 430 A bit risky, got 70 points on the first opening position, all together there were 16 adds to that long, that is not unusual for me
I am done for a while as a rotation possible on M30
also there might or even should be an attempt to retest the L, or at least the NYSE session candle bar might form a doji, providing some insight and establish meaningful selling climax, we shall see
Got my winter fuel allowance and much more this US session
Inserted Video
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #603
  • Edited 7:35pm Dec 10, 2024 3:16pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} I am done for a while as a rotation possible on M30 also there might or even should be an attempt to retest the L, or at least the NYSE session candle bar might form a doji, providing some insight and establish meaningful selling climax, we shall see Got my winter fuel allowance and much more this US session https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQrvmY5s2mo
Looks like a selling climax DOW NYSE session candle bars, as expected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 dessions 01 2024-12-10_220644.png Size: 103 KB


Lots of effort with little result, VSA basic principle - around 1500 points move up on offer, not fast as previous impulsive but nevertheless
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 Sessions 03 2024-12-10_220812.png Size: 87 KB


Consideration to be taken on board - the last move down looks like a failed C, of ABC structure or some other X wave
At the beginning of October there is a similar structure, the PB is very similar, have a look
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 02 2024-12-10_231523.png Size: 69 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MFS 05 2024-12-10_221738.png Size: 159 KB


https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...l?d=1693472539

It has been prudent to take good profits today when they were there instead for wasting them by wishful thinking
I have managed trades on shorter TFs, but also studying the posted TF too
Good trades to all!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #604
  • Edited 4:35am Dec 11, 2024 4:14am | Edited 4:35am
another day to see our lovely grandchildren as one is in a school play - not trading today - enjoying grandchildren!!!


I am expecting successive and slowly popping up new OTHs on DOW by the end of the year, very likely on low volume, and lower than usual participation - we shall see, on shorter TFs the strategy I use takes care of that, as I am committed to trade what see, including choppy market conditions.

20th December, the third Friday next week, Triple Witching Friday, comes relatively late in the month and close to the festive season.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #605
  • Dec 11, 2024 12:42pm Dec 11, 2024 12:42pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} PB yes tank - if it means crash - not really - DOW is VERY BULLISH For the last 20 years I have read people saying about the crash, which never came, at least not until now, it does not mean there will not be one. There was one big PB due to COVID 19, followed by great recovery. PB to provide space underneath for the end of the year rally January can be a mixed bag https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...l?d=1693472539 Earning season starts in January Presidential inauguration https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...gs-to-consider?...
Mr 2be, Am expecting a move to the upside especially knowing for the past twenty years DOW as always close bullish by December
but the way it's going currently it seems we may not see that move since the festive period is closing in.
But looking at the market from your own angle do you think? will we still see that up move to close bullish? Thank you.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #606
  • Edited 4:13pm Dec 11, 2024 1:46pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting martinez1
{quote} Mr 2be, Am expecting a move to the upside especially knowing for the past twenty years DOW as always close bullish by December but the way it's going currently it seems we may not see that move since the festive period is closing in. But looking at the market from your own angle do you think? will we still see that up move to close bullish? Thank you.
S&P500 at OTH today
Nasdaq at the NEW OTH today
DOW is lagging behind
I think DOW will go up, look at the previous selling climax situations, market is indeed testing traders patience
We might see a slow progress, remember next Fri is Triple Witching Friday, expect good volatility few days before that Friday, will possibly go both ways
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #607
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:04pm Dec 11, 2024 4:04pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} S&P500 at OTH today Nasdaq at the NEW OTH today DOW is lagging behind I think DOW will go up, look at the previous selling climax situations, market is indeed testing traders patience We might se a slow progress, remember next Fri is Triple Witching Friday, expect good volatility few days before that Friday, will possibly go both ways
Thank you for your time Sir.
Honestly am grateful for your contribution. My regards to your grandchildren.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #608
  • Edited 4:44am Dec 12, 2024 4:20am | Edited 4:44am
Started to build a long position on DOW after the failure to hit 44k
I will add if the PA takes DOW there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily DT 2024-12-12_102527.png Size: 67 KB

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Committed to take profit when it is there using shorter TFs taking traders in the long direction.
M0, M5 , M1 set up in this potentially active session
If there is a stronger trend formed new positions will be established
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #609
  • Dec 12, 2024 10:15am Dec 12, 2024 10:15am
Quoting 2be
Started to build a long position on DOW after the failure to hit 44k I will add if the PA takes DOW there {image} {image} {image} Committed to take profit when it is there using shorter TFs taking traders in the long direction. M0, M5 , M1 set up in this potentially active session If there is a stronger trend formed new positions will be established
Fully committed to the long side on DOW
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #610
  • Dec 12, 2024 10:25am Dec 12, 2024 10:25am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Fully committed to the long side on DOW
Okay, am waiting to see if it closes above the trendline on 1hr chart and any other confluences that might have come along then from there
i will join you to the upside.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #611
  • Dec 12, 2024 10:47am Dec 12, 2024 10:47am
Quoting martinez1
{quote} Okay, am waiting to see if it closes above the trendline on 1hr chart and any other confluences that might have come along then from there i will join you to the upside.
waiting for the rotation on M30 too
only longs for me on DOW atm
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #612
  • Dec 12, 2024 3:12pm Dec 12, 2024 3:12pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} waiting for the rotation on M30 too only longs for me on DOW atm
The rotation on M30 has not happened, apart from the initial long position which gave some profits, I stayed flat. Have been in and out a lot today, have missed the short trades, which I was not that keen to get, though on shorter TFs my system must have made me aware of that, have not spend much time today at my trading desk.
Will have a look at the EOD charts later.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #613
  • Edited 9:12pm Dec 13, 2024 8:52pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Looks like a selling climax DOW NYSE session candle bars, as expected. {image} Lots of effort with little result, VSA basic principle - around 1500 points move up on offer, not fast as previous impulsive but nevertheless {image} Consideration to be taken on board - the last move down looks like a failed C, of ABC structure or some other X wave At the beginning of October there is a similar structure, the PB is very similar, have a look {image} {image} {image} It has been prudent to take good profits today when they were there instead for...
The rotation has not happened at the selling climax, 10 Dec session bar looked like a possible reversal, but became a good example of failed potential reversal at selling climax:
There were several signs of that failure
- S/R zone not penetrated to the upside
- Retest of the S/R zone the following session
- Pump and dump cycle as indicated - there is much more to be said about the Pump/dump cycle - just observe the timing and come to conclusion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions 02 2024-12-14_015729.png Size: 108 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M39 sessions Pumm-Dump 042024-12-14_023325.png Size: 91 KB

I use shorter TFs and look for confirmation of the possible reversal
That confirmation never materialised in this case
M30 is important TF for me for intra day trades, and other trades too

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Dailt DT 2024-12-14_030743.png Size: 72 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dow H4 DT 02 2024-12-14_031035.png Size: 63 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #614
  • Dec 16, 2024 6:52am Dec 16, 2024 6:52am
Triple Witching Friday - I have disabled automatic roll over function and prefer manually manage the quarterly futures, next one coming is MAR 25
Unlike the DOW cash, these DOW DEC24 futures need to be managed slightly differently, especially within the last few days before expiry and it is important to observe the particular arrangements specific to the given trading platform.
I expect some fireworks and some moves during this week, moves that might be classified as "unusual" due to position squaring by bigger players.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #615
  • Dec 16, 2024 8:20am Dec 16, 2024 8:20am
Quoting 2be
Triple Witching Friday - I have disabled automatic roll over function and prefer manually manage the quarterly futures, next one coming is MAR 25 Unlike the DOW cash, these DOW DEC24 futures need to be managed slightly differently, especially within the last few days before expiry and it is important to observe the particular arrangements specific to the given trading platform. I expect some fireworks and some moves during this week, moves that might be classified as "unusual" due to position squaring by bigger players.
I started loading my longs earlier today. I pray am not too earlier and i hope to see it go in my favour.
May the force of the market be with us all.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #616
  • Dec 16, 2024 8:28am Dec 16, 2024 8:28am
Quoting martinez1
{quote} I started loading my longs earlier today. I pray am not too earlier and i hope to see it go in my favour. May the force of the market be with us all.
I will add from the last session close at 821 a good lot
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #617
  • Dec 16, 2024 1:04pm Dec 16, 2024 1:04pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} I will add from the last session close at 821 a good lot
The bear bars on M30 and M15 were on lower volume
all my trades were on the long side, done only 31 trades, lost a handful, have been conservative in respect of profit taking
Ranging a lot and very nervous PA
Overall positive day, but a boring US session so far
Having a break, as DOW is taking another nose dive to the zone below 800
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #618
  • Dec 16, 2024 3:05pm Dec 16, 2024 3:05pm
I was not around but just came back to check the chart and all my long position are under water.
Still watching to see if the up move will take over before my longs get stop out.
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #619
  • Dec 16, 2024 3:31pm Dec 16, 2024 3:31pm
Quoting martinez1
I was not around but just came back to check the chart and all my long position are under water. Still watching to see if the up move will take over before my longs get stop out.
Sorry to hear that, on daily the fib Ret 0.618 has been achieved at todays Low
There is likelihood of ABC structure on daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily TD 01 2024-12-16_213410.png Size: 78 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #620
  • Dec 17, 2024 1:12am Dec 17, 2024 1:12am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Sorry to hear that, on daily the fib Ret 0.618 has been achieved at todays Low There is likelihood of ABC structure on daily {image}
Thank you and i appreciate. So with ABC structure are you saying you still bias for long or long is still achievable? Thank you
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
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