Best way to determine range/trend? | Forex Factory

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Best way to determine range/trend?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 13, 2024 7:48am Nov 13, 2024 7:48am
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending.

I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ?

thanks

Jeff
  • #2
  • Nov 13, 2024 8:50am Nov 13, 2024 8:50am
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending. I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ? thanks Jeff
will horizontal bollinger band not help?
  • #3
  • Nov 14, 2024 2:36pm Nov 14, 2024 2:36pm
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending. I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ? thanks Jeff
hurst exponent? is that based on fractals? can you share the ideas?

i use simple zz with horizontal/ trendlines but i think that many people rely on moving averages or bollinger bands?
  • #4
  • Nov 16, 2024 6:21am Nov 16, 2024 6:21am
Jeffo

can you fix this indicators buffers because the colors are not separated yet please?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !ZigZag_Plus2_MTF.mq4   13 KB | 251 downloads
  • #5
  • Nov 16, 2024 7:51am Nov 16, 2024 7:51am
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending. I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ? thanks Jeff
Eyes and a bit of common sense i guess?
Trend following
  • #6
  • Nov 16, 2024 10:12am Nov 16, 2024 10:12am
Quoting mehantrader
{quote} Eyes and a bit of common sense i guess?
I'm saying algorithmically
  • #7
  • Nov 16, 2024 10:56am Nov 16, 2024 10:56am
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending. I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ? thanks Jeff
You can eyeball the price action for a quick read on whether a pair is trending or ranging. If prices are making higher highs or lower lows consistently, that's your trend. If they're just bouncing around the same levels, like a yo-yo, you're probably looking at a range. Also, watch for the volatility; if the price is just wiggling around without much direction, it's likely in a range.
Volatility does not equal Risk
  • #8
  • Dec 6, 2024 4:06am Dec 6, 2024 4:06am
Sir, could you help me with the source code for MT5 of this indicator? I would be very grateful to you. Thank you very much in advance!
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File Type: ex5 target-bands.ex5   74 KB | 225 downloads
  • #9
  • Dec 6, 2024 10:39am Dec 6, 2024 10:39am
This question lies at the heart of the reason why manual traders will always have an edge over EAs.
  • #10
  • Dec 6, 2024 2:17pm Dec 6, 2024 2:17pm
Hi, one of the best models in my opinion is linear regression. This is because it allows not only to identify a trend but also to quantitatively know the quality of this trend through the coefficient of determination. This is the only public indicator with a predictive capacity: R Square. When R Square measures a value higher than the critical threshold, you have a 95% probability that the model explains the prices. Slope determine the trend.

When the R Square exceeds 0.9 (or 90) it means that the slope is very strong and technically we say that the trend is persistent. When the trend is persistent, any deviation from the central average (regression) is an entry opportunity since due to the principle of returning towards the average values the price is attracted like a magnet to the center of the regression. (in line with the slope).

When the R Square shows values below the critical threshold we have laterality or the beginning of a new trend. When the R Square goes above the critical value from bottom to top, a new trend has begun. The slope will tell you whether positive or negative.

R Squared presents different critical thresholds based on the number of periods chosen:

20 periods = 0,2 critic level
30 = 0,13
50 = 0,08

I use 40 period, but it's just a personal choice, the principles are always the same.
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  • #11
  • Dec 6, 2024 4:55pm Dec 6, 2024 4:55pm
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending. I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ? thanks Jeff
Can you elaborate on the objective, perhaps a time frame?

Is it for intraday trading or position trading for weeks?

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #12
  • Dec 7, 2024 4:50am Dec 7, 2024 4:50am
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending. I know of Hurst Exponent which seems to be the go-to indicator for this, but what are other indicators that could help determining the state of the price ? thanks Jeff
Moving average is the most obvious choice for such indicator. It lags but there are no indicators which can indicate a trend without a lag because they are basically a function of a price, which means they use past values for output
  • #13
  • Dec 7, 2024 5:51am Dec 7, 2024 5:51am
Quoting Altopium
Hi, one of the best models in my opinion is linear regression. This is because it allows not only to identify a trend but also to quantitatively know the quality of this trend through the coefficient of determination. This is the only public indicator with a predictive capacity: R Square. When R Square measures a value higher than the critical threshold, you have a 95% probability that the model explains the prices. Slope determine the trend. When the R Square exceeds 0.9 (or 90) it means that the slope is very strong and technically we say that...
Can't find Elant indicators on tradingview
  • #14
  • Dec 7, 2024 6:30am Dec 7, 2024 6:30am
Quoting Jeffo
I'm looking for a way to determine if a pair is ranging or trending.

It depends on timeframe.

Every pair is often trending in some timeframe while ranging in many others.

Key concept: a “trend” is something that exists only with reference to a defined timeframe.
  • #15
  • Dec 7, 2024 6:57am Dec 7, 2024 6:57am
Quoting KarlKraus
{quote} It depends on timeframe. Every pair is often trending in some timeframe while ranging in many others. Key concept: a “trend” is something that exists only with reference to a defined timeframe.
Very subjetive answer.
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #16
  • Dec 7, 2024 7:03am Dec 7, 2024 7:03am
Quoting KarlKraus
{quote} It depends on timeframe. Every pair is often trending in some timeframe while ranging in many others. Key concept: a “trend” is something that exists only with reference to a defined timeframe.
Very vague and confusing answer, trend is always visible no matter what time frame you are looking
  • #17
  • Dec 7, 2024 8:34am Dec 7, 2024 8:34am
You can definitely do that but only for the past. Unfortunately most of the time market seems to have no memory (though not of the time), this creates situation where your patterns sometimes work and invalid other time. More research should be done on the aspect where market becomes irrational, i.e. pay attention to the patterns
  • #18
  • Dec 7, 2024 2:06pm Dec 7, 2024 2:06pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Impossibile trovare gli indicatori Elant su tradingview
Elant was my nickname on an Italian trading forum. I programmed them but you can find them because they are public except Extreme volatility.
You need to look for R Squared and Slope Regression linear. You should find several, choose which one you like.

I created them simply because that way I set them up as I wanted.
  • #19
  • Dec 7, 2024 4:17pm Dec 7, 2024 4:17pm
Quoting Kidboy
{quote} Very vague and confusing answer, trend is always visible no matter what time frame you are looking
Agree, but you missed the point, trend might be UP on Weekly chart but DOWN on 1-Minute chart, hence the difficultly of a definitive answer, IMHO.

When you get down to the very basics, leave time out of it, every trader is by definition a trend trader, everybody needs PRICE to move from ENTRY to EXIT for a PROFIT, hence, a trend in that direction, can only go up or down, think about it.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #20
  • Dec 8, 2024 8:07am Dec 8, 2024 8:07am
"Best way to determine range/trend?" - I think you've already seen that ..

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-grab-candles

Mucky
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