Attachments: Why is NZD so strong??

Why is NZD so strong??

Post #181
Quote
Jul 24, 2007 8:35am Jul 24, 2007 8:35am

karmostaji
Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts

Quoting HalifaxCB

Disliked

Fixed to a value relative to another ccy, the way CNY was relative to the USD for a decade, up to two years ago. It's more likely that they will go for a banded (i.e. dirty) float, I would think, before they actually go back to a peg.

Ignored

Thanks for explaining, appreciate it

Trade what you see, not what you think.

Post #182
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Jul 24, 2007 1:02pm Jul 24, 2007 1:02pm

rbock
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Member | 97 Posts

Quoting BurgerKing

Disliked

And I thought I was looking at AUDUSD.

Ignored

That's funny. Maybe they are going to peg their currency to the Aussie.

Post #183
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Jul 25, 2007 5:44am Jul 25, 2007 5:44am

squaw
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Night Trader | 243 Posts

NZD continues its up-trend. The support is provided by the decision on kea interest rate. I think it will be increasing to 8.25%

Post #184
Quote
Jul 25, 2007 2:53pm Jul 25, 2007 2:53pm

DutchTrader
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

Excellent buying level in preparation for the RBNZ decision.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

Post #185
Quote
Jul 25, 2007 3:24pm Jul 25, 2007 3:24pm

smikester
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 8,618 Posts

Quoting DutchTrader

Disliked

Excellent buying level in preparation for the RBNZ decision.

Ignored

Hope it's not like your last call on USD/CAD...

Gone to a better place

Post #186
Quote
Jul 25, 2007 4:09pm Jul 25, 2007 4:09pm

DutchTrader
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

Quoting smikester

Disliked

Hope it's not like your last call on USD/CAD...

Ignored

My call on the USD/CAD was a good short level. I think you're getting me confused.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

Post #187
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Jul 25, 2007 5:05pm Jul 25, 2007 5:05pm

karmostaji
Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts

Trade what you see, not what you think.

Post #188
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Jul 25, 2007 5:13pm Jul 25, 2007 5:13pm

rbock
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Member | 97 Posts

Interesting. They raise the rate & it falls 30+ pips.

Post #189
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Jul 25, 2007 5:19pm Jul 25, 2007 5:19pm

DutchTrader
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

The 25 hike was already factored in perhaps. Lets see what the Japanese housewives have to say.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

Post #190
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Jul 25, 2007 5:31pm Jul 25, 2007 5:31pm

technamental
| Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Member | 25 Posts

Here's some of what the central bank had to say:

Quote

Disliked

“The high New Zealand dollar is not sustainable medium term and investors should understand this. The higher OCR now gives strong incentives to New Zealanders to save.
“New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing.
Provided they keep this up, and the pressure on resources continues to ease, we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation.”

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2007/3074597.html

Post #191
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Jul 25, 2007 5:42pm Jul 25, 2007 5:42pm

DutchTrader
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts

There is talk that 8200 is the peak. It'll be interesting, that's for sure.

Patience + Humility + Study = Success

Post #192
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Jul 25, 2007 6:05pm Jul 25, 2007 6:05pm

rbock
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Member | 97 Posts

Quoting DutchTrader

Disliked

There is talk that 8200 is the peak. It'll be interesting, that's for sure.

Ignored

I have seen that talk too. I'll be very curious to see which way this thing goes.

Post #193
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Jul 25, 2007 7:14pm Jul 25, 2007 7:14pm

zamans98
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: There is No Secret in Forex | 878 Posts

8,25? looks like it is already factored in.

Well, does looks good for carry trade but since Monday market has been in unknown direction. So, I will stay sideways until the mess is clear.

Post #194
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Jul 25, 2007 10:00pm Jul 25, 2007 10:00pm

Ado
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Wishmaster | 231 Posts

I don't really understand, good NZD news today, and the kiwi is losing and losing pips.

Ado

Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.

Post #195
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Jul 25, 2007 10:04pm Jul 25, 2007 10:04pm

elysia
| Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Member | 3 Posts

rates were expected. comments were dovish.

"But the lift in the official cash rate (OCR) from 8 per cent is likely to be the last one, Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard said."

it's contingent of future data, imho.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busine...339123596.html

Post #196
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Jul 26, 2007 4:18am Jul 26, 2007 4:18am

LiveLoud
| Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Member | 14 Posts

New Zealand dollar was overvalued coming into this 'rate hike.' The market factored this rate rise in for the last week. RBNZ is confident the rates has peak in this economical cycle. Therefore the next move will be down (even though that might be a 6-9 months or so away.

RBNZ could also just be trying to 'talk down' the dollar like Mr Cullen has been trying to do. The next lot of CPI etc will be high impacting reports especially if it shows signs of weakening. I am quietly confident that we have reached pretty close to the top...but Ive been wrong before and I actually hate trying to 'pick' the top!!

We will wait and see ... I went short at .81 so its been great so far!

{ Link Removed }

Post #197
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Jul 26, 2007 5:23am Jul 26, 2007 5:23am

squaw
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Night Trader | 243 Posts

The decision to increase official cash rate was made on the basis of inflation risks, which mainly reflect non-stable situation at labor market, high capacity use and increasing prices for oil and food.

High rate of New Zealand dollar, connected with American dollar weakness and high demand for borrowing in the country, is of major concern for Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Bollard thinks that such level of currency may hurt exports.