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Why is NZD so strong??

  • #181
  • Jul 24, 2007 7:35am Jul 24, 2007 7:35am
Quoting HalifaxCB
Fixed to a value relative to another ccy, the way CNY was relative to the USD for a decade, up to two years ago. It's more likely that they will go for a banded (i.e. dirty) float, I would think, before they actually go back to a peg.
Thanks for explaining, appreciate it
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #182
  • Jul 24, 2007 12:02pm Jul 24, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting BurgerKing
And I thought I was looking at AUDUSD.
That's funny. Maybe they are going to peg their currency to the Aussie.
  • #183
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:44am Jul 25, 2007 4:44am
NZD continues its up-trend. The support is provided by the decision on kea interest rate. I think it will be increasing to 8.25%
  • #184
  • Jul 25, 2007 1:53pm Jul 25, 2007 1:53pm
Excellent buying level in preparation for the RBNZ decision.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #185
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:24pm Jul 25, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Excellent buying level in preparation for the RBNZ decision.

Hope it's not like your last call on USD/CAD...
Gone to a better place
  • #186
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:09pm Jul 25, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting smikester
Hope it's not like your last call on USD/CAD...

My call on the USD/CAD was a good short level. I think you're getting me confused.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #187
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:05pm Jul 25, 2007 4:05pm
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #188
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:13pm Jul 25, 2007 4:13pm
Interesting. They raise the rate & it falls 30+ pips.
  • #189
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:19pm Jul 25, 2007 4:19pm
The 25 hike was already factored in perhaps. Lets see what the Japanese housewives have to say.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #190
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:31pm Jul 25, 2007 4:31pm
Here's some of what the central bank had to say:
Quote
“The high New Zealand dollar is not sustainable medium term and investors should understand this. The higher OCR now gives strong incentives to New Zealanders to save.
“New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing.
Provided they keep this up, and the pressure on resources continues to ease, we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation.”

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2007/3074597.html
  • #191
  • Jul 25, 2007 4:42pm Jul 25, 2007 4:42pm
There is talk that 8200 is the peak. It'll be interesting, that's for sure.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #192
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:05pm Jul 25, 2007 5:05pm
Quoting DutchTrader
There is talk that 8200 is the peak. It'll be interesting, that's for sure.
I have seen that talk too. I'll be very curious to see which way this thing goes.
  • #193
  • Jul 25, 2007 6:14pm Jul 25, 2007 6:14pm
8,25? looks like it is already factored in.

Well, does looks good for carry trade but since Monday market has been in unknown direction. So, I will stay sideways until the mess is clear.
  • #194
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:00pm Jul 25, 2007 9:00pm
I don't really understand, good NZD news today, and the kiwi is losing and losing pips.



Ado
Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.
  • #195
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:04pm Jul 25, 2007 9:04pm
rates were expected. comments were dovish.

"But the lift in the official cash rate (OCR) from 8 per cent is likely to be the last one, Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard said."

it's contingent of future data, imho.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busine...339123596.html
  • #196
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:18am Jul 26, 2007 3:18am
New Zealand dollar was overvalued coming into this 'rate hike.' The market factored this rate rise in for the last week. RBNZ is confident the rates has peak in this economical cycle. Therefore the next move will be down (even though that might be a 6-9 months or so away.

RBNZ could also just be trying to 'talk down' the dollar like Mr Cullen has been trying to do. The next lot of CPI etc will be high impacting reports especially if it shows signs of weakening. I am quietly confident that we have reached pretty close to the top...but Ive been wrong before and I actually hate trying to 'pick' the top!!

We will wait and see ... I went short at .81 so its been great so far!
{ Link Removed }
  • #197
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:23am Jul 26, 2007 4:23am
The decision to increase official cash rate was made on the basis of inflation risks, which mainly reflect non-stable situation at labor market, high capacity use and increasing prices for oil and food.

High rate of New Zealand dollar, connected with American dollar weakness and high demand for borrowing in the country, is of major concern for Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Bollard thinks that such level of currency may hurt exports.
  • #198
  • Jul 30, 2007 7:08am Jul 30, 2007 7:08am
Abosolutly LOVING this pair today. Down Baby Down
Just Trade It
  • #199
  • Sep 14, 2007 3:48am Sep 14, 2007 3:48am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Abosolutly LOVING this pair today. Down Baby Down
Up Baby Up
.
  • #200
  • Last Post: Sep 14, 2007 4:20am Sep 14, 2007 4:20am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Abosolutly LOVING this pair today. Down Baby Down

That post was over a month old. I remember getting around 600 pips out of that trade. It was a good one.
Just Trade It
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