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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #341
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:44am Jul 24, 2007 5:44am
Jacko,

I have been watching your thread for awhile and saw where you say you go "with your gut."

I find it amazing how well you have been calling reversals lately (particularly the bounce off 1.32)

Long term trends are nice entries, but can't help you call medium term reversals. Are you using anything other than experience to make these calls?

Take care,
Tom
  • #342
  • Jul 24, 2007 9:34am Jul 24, 2007 9:34am
tdion,

I dont know what is jacko's gut feel but 1.3300 (the short term reversal you're talking about) is a resistance that turns to support.

For pictures .. see my post 285 of this thread

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1448329&postcount=285
  • #343
  • Jul 24, 2007 10:16pm Jul 24, 2007 10:16pm
Quoting jacko
Hi generalz,

I will try to answer your questions about my parallel "buy and hold" accounts

Can you talk about how you see yourself entering these parallel trades.
I established a separate account with each of my 4 brokers before my wife and I went to Europe in May/June. Each was seeded with a substantial deposit. I had been waiting for the inevitable retracement for a little while and when it occurred i thought that 1.3300 would be reasonably close to the bottom. (But then again, I could have been totally wwwwrong).

I entered the trades but with a longer time perspective and also a bigger SL position. ( My returns from these accounts have been spectacular...)

You talked about adding to your position.
yes I have added to the position as the profits rapidly piled up.

Are you just going to stick with US/Euro.
I trade the Euro/USD (in large volume) only but am starting to give more thought to diversifying into GBP/USD.

Are you only waiting for major retractments.
Yes.
IF, and that is a big IF, there is going to be a retracement from around the current 1.3800, I would expect 1.3650 to be the lowest it will go. (But then again, I could be totally wwwwrong).

How often per do you think you might initially enter a trade?
The time frames are becoming longer each time I trade.

How big of a SL are you using when you enter?
50 pips on my trading account
100 on my "buy and holds' with a discretionary over-rider.
BOTH have the anti-hedging principle as an integral component. (It is the best tool in the tool box).


.


.

This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.


This is NOT a recommendation to any impressionable newbie to short the market. It is a recommendation to WAIT to find a better price to buy and profit from the long term UP trend.


But....I could be wwwwwwrong. (I have trouble saying that word...LOL)


.
  • #344
  • Jul 24, 2007 10:53pm Jul 24, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting jacko
This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.


This is NOT a recommendation to any impressionable newbie to short the market. It is a recommendation to WAIT to find a better price to buy and profit from the long term UP trend.


But....I could be wwwwwwrong. (I have trouble saying that word...LOL)


.
I felt a slight wave also...especially after that NY closing and Asian opening???

Could be an interesting next 3 days...

Makes you wonder?????
  • #345
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:08am Jul 25, 2007 2:08am
Quoting jacko
This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.
.....
.
Woot ... I'm gonna wait for that retracement again
  • #346
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:11am Jul 25, 2007 3:11am
Quoting jacko
This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.

.

Do we give it a doggy treat then?

Been worried sick about this since I felt it coming, too. Have a 77 pip sized wedge on my chart, projection from the dropout zone shows around 1.3745 as a potential initial target. Would be nice of EURUSD if it flipped back long there, however it isn't out of the question that this could get ugly all the way down to the 1.36xx's..

Currently endangering 1.3760 range support.


Also the USD index(thanks crez!) is about to stage a breakout of a channel it's been lounging around in. If we can beat it back down all will be well, if not, then I don't know. I expect a lot of longs from 1.3760 will make for sloppy action, depending on where everyone put their stops..
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #347
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:21am Jul 25, 2007 3:21am
The wedge I'm talking about. Sorry, I hope I am not cluttering the thread.

Am still worried we'll shed a total of 160-180 pips.


Would much rather have that we could hold :/
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #348
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:48am Jul 25, 2007 3:48am
i also thought that the euro might stall here. the 50% fibo retraces to around the 13560 level. from a brief back-test over the past 4 years the fib level seems to work quite well if you focus your attention between 38 to 62. last time we had a bounce off 50, but it can sit in these levels for weeks or even turn over. also past few years have seen strong trends, would be interesting to see what it does during the chop (like in 2002).

not that this is a reco, given the 50% fibo, the first round number on the way back up is 13600 for buying???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #349
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:12am Jul 25, 2007 9:12am
Quoting jacko
This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.


This is NOT a recommendation to any impressionable newbie to short the market. It is a recommendation to WAIT to find a better price to buy and profit from the long term UP trend.


But....I could be wwwwwwrong. (I have trouble saying that word...LOL)


.

Am i the luckiest SOB or what? Only three hours after I posted this and closed all my longs, the Euro craps itself and I save myself a small fortune.


What amazing good luck...not skill !!


Sometimes, the sun just shines on a person.


.
  • #350
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:21am Jul 25, 2007 9:21am
Quoting jacko
Am i the luckiest SOB or what? Only three hours after I posted this and closed all my longs, the Euro craps itself and I save myself a small fortune.


What amazing good luck...not skill !!


Sometimes, the sun just shines on a person.


.
It's a skill, not luck...
Congrats..

R
  • #351
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:24am Jul 25, 2007 9:24am
Quoting jacko
Am i the luckiest SOB or what? Only three hours after I posted this and closed all my longs, the Euro craps itself and I save myself a small fortune.


What amazing good luck...not skill !!


Sometimes, the sun just shines on a person.


.

Just for posterity, would someone please verify the time of my post (at which time it was trading at 1.3810) and that it was only a few hours before the market crapped out.

I don't want a whole lot of newbies coming onto the forum later and saying that I was posting "after the event"


.
  • #352
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:38am Jul 25, 2007 9:38am
Quoting jacko
Just for posterity, would someone please verify the time of my post (at which time it was trading at 1.3810) and that it was only a few hours before the market crapped out.

I don't want a whole lot of newbies coming onto the forum later and saying that I was posting "after the event"


.

Sorry to ask this but would someone please do an independant audit of the timing on my post number 588 and the fact that the market dropped from 1.3810 to its current level some 3-4 hours later.

I just want to ensure that no-one ever "infers" that I am fiddling the figures


.
  • #353
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:41am Jul 25, 2007 9:41am
Seekinglight,

Which MT platform/feed are you using?

Thanks.

Btw, your mailbox is full.
  • #354
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:02am Jul 25, 2007 10:02am
Quoting jacko
Sorry to ask this but would someone please do an independant audit of the timing on my post number 588 and the fact that the market dropped from 1.3810 to its current level some 3-4 hours later.

I just want to ensure that no-one ever "infers" that I am fiddling the figures


.
Time stamp on your post is 4:16 am UK time (3:16 GMT)
Regards
  • #355
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:07am Jul 25, 2007 10:07am
Quoting howard
Time stamp on your post is 4:16 am UK time (3:16 GMT)

Thanks Howard,


And what time did the price decline through 1.3800 in UK and GMT time ??



.
  • #356
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:16am Jul 25, 2007 10:16am
Quoting jacko
Thanks Howard,


And what time did the price decline through 1.3800 in UK and GMT time ??



.
At the time the 5 min bar closed at 1.3805 and at 10:15 UK (09:15 GMT) the 5 min bar went through 1.3800 and the price dropped thereafter to this moment standing at 1. 3700
Regards
  • #357
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:23am Jul 25, 2007 10:23am
jacko,

trying to learn here...what needs to happen to give us confirmation to go long?

love the thread btw keep up the great work
  • #358
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:31am Jul 25, 2007 10:31am
Quoting howard
At the time the 5 min bar closed at 1.3805 and at 10:15 UK (09:15 GMT) the 5 min bar went through 1.3800 and the price dropped thereafter to this moment standing at 1. 3700
Thanks Howard,

When I was posting at DailyFX, we all prided ourselves on the fact that it was "live-time trading" and posting (within minutes, if not seconds of the transaction). If any trader tried to B.S. their trades, all the other traders would have excoriated them immediately.

I just want to make sure that my credibility remains clean.


.
  • #359
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:38am Jul 25, 2007 10:38am
Lol good call jacko ...

This is my game plan for now ...
buy limit @ 3600. If a strong support above 3600 is visible tomorow, I may jump into it again ... hehe
  • #360
  • Jul 25, 2007 10:40am Jul 25, 2007 10:40am
Quoting jacko
Thanks Howard,

I just want to make sure that my credibility remains clean.


.
Don't worry, Jacko ... your credibility will remain intact..

May you share the basis of your call of Euro will start rolling over at 1.3800? Maybe based on some fundamentals? or ......????
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