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Daily or Higher Timeframe Trading

  • #21
  • Oct 30, 2024 6:00am Oct 30, 2024 6:00am
All USD pairs may move up until 12 November
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  • #22
  • Oct 30, 2024 6:09am Oct 30, 2024 6:09am
Quoting Olu
Still keeping an eye on the usdjpy. Price is struggling at the horizontal line resistance. Struggling yes but is not necessarily bearish. {image}
It's still setting up for shorts, I'd give it a couple more days to deliver optimal entries.
  • #23
  • Oct 30, 2024 6:48am Oct 30, 2024 6:48am
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  • #24
  • Oct 30, 2024 9:25am Oct 30, 2024 9:25am
Quoting saslam
{image}
Hi Saslam
Thanks for your chart. Going long this chart area are the kind of trades that interest me but I did not this in time.
Hope you are getting some pips
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #25
  • Nov 4, 2024 11:03am Nov 4, 2024 11:03am
What is the usdjpy doing? It is struggling at this level on tis weekly chart. I am taking tiny short looking for the effects of uncertainty. Chart is sporting an abandoned doji and bearish follow up at relevant look-left resistance. There also seems to be a retest of the lower uptrend channel line. An uptrend is still in place but it is in places like this that I try small shorts. A close above the recent high without appreciable downside (even a closing of the gap evidenced on the lower timeframes) says to me this idea is tosh. On the other hand a break below the 151.50 low will be helpful
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #26
  • Nov 4, 2024 2:14pm Nov 4, 2024 2:14pm
Hi all
I'm sorry I am not able to post charts right now but gbpusd and euruse are sporting gaps and these might get filled soonish in my opinion. The eurusd gap appears wider. Recently eurgbp has been going up so it might br gbpusd that will fill its gap.We'll see how this plays out.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #27
  • Nov 5, 2024 8:23am Nov 5, 2024 8:23am
Quoting Olu
Hi all I'm sorry I am not able to post charts right now but gbpusd and euruse are sporting gaps and these might get filled soonish in my opinion. The eurusd gap appears wider. Recently eurgbp has been going up so it might br gbpusd that will fill its gap.We'll see how this plays out.
Needless to say I donated 20pips to the forex matrix. The idea did not pan out as expected.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #28
  • Nov 10, 2024 1:28pm Nov 10, 2024 1:28pm
Things don't look too good for western currencies against the US$. This is a weekly chart of the eurusd which constitutes near 45% of the US dollar index
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #29
  • Edited 3:28am Nov 11, 2024 3:14am | Edited 3:28am
Check out gold too.
It has been on a 'tear' pre-trump and there were calls for $3000-3500.
Then a chap with 'golden hair' got elected and scuppered the upmove.
Seriously speaking:
(1) gold (and generally commodity prices) is generally inversely correlated to $ index strength and this downmove is therefore not unexpected.
(2) No real technical damage has been done to this upmove in real sense I would say. Those red candles are not helpful though. The MAs still look good.

Don't want to chase price. Looking closely
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #30
  • Nov 11, 2024 5:47am Nov 11, 2024 5:47am
Now here is one of mine.
Not all scenarios are 'should have sold' or 'could have sold'. This is crude oil.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #31
  • Nov 11, 2024 7:44am Nov 11, 2024 7:44am
Quoting Olu
Check out gold too. It has been on a 'tear' pre-trump and there were calls for $3000-3500. Then a chap with 'golden hair' got elected and scuppered the upmove. Seriously speaking: (1) gold (and generally commodity prices) is generally inversely correlated to $ index strength and this downmove is therefore not unexpected. (2) No real technical damage has been done to this upmove in real sense I would say. Those red candles are not helpful though. The MAs still look good. Don't want to chase price. Looking closely {image}
There is definitely some damage now...Dollar Index is doing its bit as well
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #32
  • Nov 11, 2024 4:04pm Nov 11, 2024 4:04pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} There is definitely some damage now...Dollar Index is doing its bit as well {image} {image}
Moving averages are lagged indicator of a Market Move. the move actually happens and then the indicator reflects this. i basically follow a few things that you may want to consider in your trading.


1. NY Midnight
2. NY 830 AM
3. CME Open
4. Daily Open
price is highly reactive consider the image below

if you see those are the lines where the activity actually starts.. the other image is a 30 min line that marks the NY Midnight on my charts .. the blue box is what i had drawn just before London open and what happens ..it avails premium prices or in other words stops out people who were short up there and trapping people thinking the market is going up and it dumped .. While Moving Averages give the direction of the move if you see around that time it was showing that a W formation was in effect under the moving average but it did not last .. why? because it gets reflected only after a move has happened .. now price will get back to the EMA after this dump and then continue downward trajectory .. However this will not stop until it reaches 2500s . it requires a bit of study and keen observation as thats where the play actually happens ..
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Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #33
  • Nov 11, 2024 10:37pm Nov 11, 2024 10:37pm
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} Moving averages are lagged indicator of a Market Move. the move actually happens and then the indicator reflects this. i basically follow a few things that you may want to consider in your trading. 1. NY Midnight 2. NY 830 AM 3. CME Open 4. Daily Open price is highly reactive consider the image below if you see those are the lines where the activity actually starts.. the other image is a 30 min line that marks the NY Midnight on my charts .. the blue box is what i had drawn just before London open and what happens ..it avails premium prices...
Hi Praetorion,
Thanks for your reply. Indeed I agree that moving averages are lagging indicators. They just smooth out price and help traders find trends. I will look into the time-based observations you have described. Many thanks
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #34
  • Nov 11, 2024 10:54pm Nov 11, 2024 10:54pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi Praetorion, Thanks for your reply. Indeed I agree that moving averages are lagging indicators. They just smooth out price and help traders find trends. I will look into the time-based observations you have described. Many thanks
We are a small group of traders on discord if you wana join, have a lot of material that can aid this. let me know and ill send you a DM.
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #35
  • Nov 12, 2024 9:11am Nov 12, 2024 9:11am
Some of the stock market exuberance is starting to wear off. Can't rule out additional upside though.
Check this chart of the Dow out. I am not in a sell in this but in the Russell2000.
It is countertrend though so possibly only short term
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #36
  • Nov 13, 2024 2:02am Nov 13, 2024 2:02am
Counter trend wise eurusd is at crossroads right now. There is a possibility of more upside.
This is so countertrend as depicted by the MAs.
Nevertheless it is a valid trade for the brave if price head higher. The MAs can be targets...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #37
  • Nov 13, 2024 2:09am Nov 13, 2024 2:09am
Quoting Olu
Now here is one of mine. Not all scenarios are 'should have sold' or 'could have sold'. This is crude oil. {image}
Closed this trade. I believe we are in retracement mode. Dxy is key here.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #38
  • Nov 13, 2024 2:50am Nov 13, 2024 2:50am
Quoting Olu
Counter trend wise eurusd is at crossroads right now. There is a possibility of more upside. This is so countertrend as depicted by the MAs. Nevertheless it is a valid trade for the brave if price head higher. The MAs can be targets... {image}
Hi Olu

We may as well trust the trend or the game's over.
I'll only take SELL setups at present unless the MA's are stacked the other way.
If it breaks bullish, not a trade for me
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #39
  • Nov 13, 2024 3:16pm Nov 13, 2024 3:16pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Olu We may as well trust the trend or the game's over. I'll only take SELL setups at present unless the MA's are stacked the other way. If it breaks bullish, not a trade for me {image}
I agree RickM.
The trend is your friend.
That is where the easier money is made.
I call it the 'itchy finger' syndrome or needtotradesomething-itis
Continuing in the medical theme of this post I have just taken 'resetyourmind' syrup followed by a 'sticktotheplan' injection
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #40
  • Edited 6:31pm Nov 13, 2024 6:02pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I agree RickM. The trend is your friend. That is where the easier money is made. I call it the 'itchy finger' syndrome or needtotradesomething-itis Continuing in the medical theme of this post I have just taken 'resetyourmind' syrup followed by a 'sticktotheplan' injection
You said long time frames didn’t you.

How about the monthly chart on EURUSD

I have just entered a Short on EURUSD which may last for 6 months all going well.
A tight consolidation on the Monthly and PA trend suggests a Huge Bearish trend.

Lets see if it works.

The other important issue with trading long term is you get to make money while you sleep, which is very nice if it gaps down and runs in your direction. I also trade the intraday Future Markets and it’s easy to miss a move on gap down / up days because those can’t be traded intraday quite often.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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