EURUSD only

So today they cut the interest means surely it will rise the market

EUR/USD 2025 Perspective
USD Perspective
The FED is expected to cut rates only twice in 2025, targeting the 3.75–4% range. This would result in a rate approximately 1% higher than anticipated for 2025. Furthermore, if planned import taxes are implemented, prices for U.S. citizens will increase, potentially leading to higher inflation. This scenario may prompt the FED to adopt a less aggressive rate-cutting policy, which could further strengthen the USD, especially if upcoming unemployment reports show lower-than-expected rates. If today's report indicates low unemployment, there is a possibility, in my view and according to recent rumors, that the FED could skip a rate cut in December.

EUR Perspective
The ECB is anticipated to reduce interest rates by 50 BPS in December. If this occurs, the interest rate differential between the FED and ECB would be 175 BPS, assuming the FED also cuts by 50 BPS this year (resulting in rates of 2.75% for the ECB and 4.5% for the FED). German and European economic health indicators, especially industrial production, will be essential to monitor. Recent data indicated disappointing results:
“German industrial production fell by 2.5% month-on-month in September, down from +2.6% in August. Year-on-year, industrial production has decreased by nearly 5%. Additionally, German exports declined by 1.7% MoM in September, compared to +1.5% MoM in August. With imports rising by 2.1% MoM, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €17bn from €22.7bn in August.”
Another factor favoring additional ECB rate cuts is the ongoing disinflationary trend. In September, inflation dropped to 1.7%, with October showing a slight increase to 2%. Although the 2% rate aligns with ECB targets, sustained low inflation (under 2%) could justify further rate cuts in 2025. A winter recession in Germany also remains a possibility, and recent political instability could make investors more cautious about investing in Germany.
On a positive note, the upcoming elections in Germany in March 2025 may improve market sentiment, potentially boosting the German economy.
Conclusion
This contrast could fuel a USD rally, especially if the FED were to skip a December rate cut while the ECB proceeds with a 50 BPS cut.

need weekly close above current levels. Above 1.08 would be even better.

1.08 is the Decision zone. Large TF pressure is still down. Waiting for Price Action. Rate decision will be today's big catalyst.

Never "surely"... it is better to say: "likely"...

Sorry to disturb you ata sir.its a doubt interest rate is lower than 4.75 then it likely spikes up or it will be 4.75 means it's falls down I am correct sir

When does lowering the rate equal dollar strength? When the banks are fighting deflationary pressures. If there is no deflation happening then the dollar will weaken with a lower rate. If there is deflation the dollar will continue to strengthen despite a lower rate.

Right now FED interest rate is 5.00......

Experts are "guessing" that FED might lower it today to 4.75....

In other words, a 0.25 point cut is expected! Nothing for sure and therefore I am saying: It is "likely" that EURUSD could go up IF this cut happens.

I hope it answers...

Hi guys
buy limit at 1.0695
TP 180 PIP
SL 50 PIP

Are you sure is it 1.0795 as a buy limit??? as the PL is right now @ 1.0810

1.0695

But y 1.0695

Meanwhile, on H1...

Next, I think we will retest ~1.0843 area... After that I don't know.. probably indecision until number comes out... Let's see...

*If candles settle above Weekly resistance (1.0770) and resistance becomes support, even a 5 year old can tell the drill...

and sell limit at 1.0821
TP 1.0695
non stop loss

I think they have started. This looks to me like the movers are painting the tape before the FOMC meeting to get ahead of THEIR competition (the whales). I will start adding small shorts after London close but before FOMC. Riding the coattails of the movers.

Happy Trades to you,
ND

Trade active

Quick Weekly Update

There is actually no update necessary, really... Same channel, same median line: 1.0795 area, is keeping both sides on hold...

dxy
eurusd

Meanwhile, on H1...

As long as candles open above 1.0754, the overall trend is bullish on this timeframe..

I prefer to stick to bulls and will rinse & repeat buying dips..