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  • #202,601
  • Nov 6, 2024 4:02am Nov 6, 2024 4:02am
Quoting vinesh1
I think we might be going to 1.04. Let's see. If 1.06 breaks then yes
Keep in mind that we will have FED's interest rate decision tomorrow
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,602
  • Nov 6, 2024 4:14am Nov 6, 2024 4:14am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Keep in mind that we will have FED's interest rate decision tomorrow
don't think it will make any difference as its alrewdy priced in. That weekly candle is scary. If we can close out the week above 1.076 then as u said before bull have a chance. Trump being elected should mean weaker dollar but the knee jerk reaction will be bullish for the dollar. Lets see.
  • #202,603
  • Nov 6, 2024 4:42am Nov 6, 2024 4:42am
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} don't think it will make any difference as its alrewdy priced in. That weekly candle is scary. If we can close out the week above 1.076 then as u said before bull have a chance. Trump being elected should mean weaker dollar but the knee jerk reaction will be bullish for the dollar. Lets see.
Trump being elected does not mean a weaker dollar - every single thing about Trump means a stronger dollar. I don't understand what about this people still do not get.

In terms of the rate rise tomorrow, I have a feeling that the fed could now hold, and that maybe partially priced in. If they do drop, I think EURUSD can recover a bit - but I'm not confident in this cut.

In terms of techs, we have some support at 1.066-67. Will told hold? Can it overshoot? Quite possibly. Remember - the US market hasn't even reacted to the news yet! Be careful.
  • #202,604
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:08am Nov 6, 2024 5:08am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Trump being elected does not mean a weaker dollar - every single thing about Trump means a stronger dollar. I don't understand what about this people still do not get. In terms of the rate rise tomorrow, I have a feeling that the fed could now hold, and that maybe partially priced in. If they do drop, I think EURUSD can recover a bit - but I'm not confident in this cut. In terms of techs, we have some support at 1.066-67. Will told hold? Can it overshoot? Quite possibly. Remember - the US market hasn't even reacted to the news yet! Be careful....
trump wants weaker dollar to be competitive. Let's stick to euro usd. Checkout dollar index I'm 2016
  • #202,605
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:09am Nov 6, 2024 5:09am
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} don't think it will make any difference as its alrewdy priced in. That weekly candle is scary. If we can close out the week above 1.076 then as u said before bull have a chance. Trump being elected should mean weaker dollar but the knee jerk reaction will be bullish for the dollar. Lets see.
Go back in history to the day Trump was elected the first time 8 years ago. Back then, EUR/USD had generated something that was referred to as Trump tower (a spike up on the graph) followed by perhaps twice as deep a dip. Back then, the assumption was that the pair could go to parity, but it stopped at around 1.035x by the end of 2016, and then it went up quite sharp.

Hence I anticipate this time 1.052x is doable for certain, while I do not exclude we can get a lot lower till the end of this year.
  • #202,606
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:13am Nov 6, 2024 5:13am
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} trump wants weaker dollar to be competitive. Let's stick to euro usd. Checkout dollar index I'm 2016
even if that is true, all he promises will deliver exactly the opposite
  • #202,607
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:30am Nov 6, 2024 5:30am
Quoting Niffler2024
{quote} Updated chart Trailing stops First target 1.0650x area {image} {image}

Trailing stops closer as we get to first target....
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My Charts / Ideas Do Not Constitute Any Advice. Always Do Your Own Research
  • #202,608
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:33am Nov 6, 2024 5:33am
Don't let speculation on what 'Might' happen in the future distract you from what price is telling you now.

Nothing has changed on the Weekly scale. The election night catalyst is clearly seen but it hasn't changed price's narrative. Interesting huh? Good job to everybody that took advantage! New decision area at 1.0800.

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  • #202,609
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:34am Nov 6, 2024 5:34am
Hi
Don't mistake me.if there possible to touch 1.06700 today
  • #202,610
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:36am Nov 6, 2024 5:36am
I m looking at new highs and beyond in next couple of months.
  • #202,611
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:51am Nov 6, 2024 5:51am
Quoting vinesh1
I m looking at new highs and beyond in next couple of months.
and why is that?
  • #202,612
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:53am Nov 6, 2024 5:53am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} and why is that?
DM me as our moderator does not like non pair related talk.
  • #202,613
  • Nov 6, 2024 5:59am Nov 6, 2024 5:59am
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} trump wants weaker dollar to be competitive. Let's stick to euro usd. Checkout dollar index I'm 2016
What he wants is irrelevant.

Trump will do tarriffs, which put pressure on inflation, which means higher rates, which means stronger dollar.
Trump will to spend more, which puts pressure on inflation, which means higher rates, which means stronger dollar.
Trump victory is predicted to have 0.9% increase in inflation compared to base case now, which means higher rates, which means stronger dollar
Trump wants to make his tax cuts permanent, that will cause a big problem so far as the budget deficit - this will cause long-dated bond rates to rise.
Trump is expected to spend about 1% more as proportion of GDP than Harris (3-2 vs 2-1% extra spending)

That means there will be immediate expectation of rate hikes by the Fed if trump wins.


If you are trading eur/usd and you are not aware of, or across the above, you should at the very least not even be looking at the fundamentals to trade - only technicals. Don't pretend you know what you are talking about, and stick to what you know.
  • #202,614
  • Nov 6, 2024 6:07am Nov 6, 2024 6:07am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} What he wants is irrelevant. Trump will do tarriffs, which put pressure on inflation, which means higher rates, which means stronger dollar. Trump will to spend more, which puts pressure on inflation, which means higher rates, which means stronger dollar. Trump victory is predicted to have 0.9% increase in inflation compared to base case now, which means higher rates, which means stronger dollar Trump wants to make his tax cuts permanent, that will cause a big problem so far as the budget deficit - this will cause long-dated bond rates to...
Jesus bro calm down. Do you want to kicked out of the room for rambling? One last thought b4 we stop rambling. Tariff's are negotating tools. When trump issues the first order of Tariff which is sure to happen. Read the fine print. He will give countries time to think about it before it goes into affect. No one wants trade wars bad for everyone. Trump needs currency to be weak so that other countries can buy stuff from us. What's the point of making stuff in US when no one can afford to buy it There is already de dollarization talk. Gold at record high. Crypto taking a hold. So dollar weakness is inevitable.. with this I will stop. Sorry Atta.
  • #202,615
  • Nov 6, 2024 7:00am Nov 6, 2024 7:00am
I personally don't like fundamentals for gazillion of reasons...the most important one: everybody can have an opinion on it and even if wrong, still can claim to be right.. It is a gray area just like sports talk...

Therefore, I suggest to stick to technicals..

Thanks in advance
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,616
  • Nov 6, 2024 7:03am Nov 6, 2024 7:03am
are you buying
  • #202,617
  • Nov 6, 2024 7:10am Nov 6, 2024 7:10am
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The downward reaction was what I expected on a Trump win. I still expect the movers will paint the tape but after FOMC so this is pure reaction right now. The FOMC decision tomorrow may show us the direction into year end. And maybe not? Can never be certain as a trader. Being profitable is more important than being right.

Dollar strength is balanced in other markets as commodities and energies are both lower. A 25 BPS cut tomorrow would seal the deal for downward EURUSD I am still on holiday so no positions now. Staying out of trouble.

Happy Trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #202,618
  • Nov 6, 2024 7:23am Nov 6, 2024 7:23am
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From technical perspective, the double top and break below support are pointing the way. This is long term bearish as is right now. But if the daily candle closes with a big tail and stays above 1.0800, whole new scenario and the playbook changes. This is a wonderful way to make a living. And a very crazy way to make a living.

Happy Trades to you.
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #202,619
  • Nov 6, 2024 8:28am Nov 6, 2024 8:28am
Quoting newbegger
{image} From technical perspective, the double top and break below support are pointing the way. This is long term bearish as is right now. But if the daily candle closes with a big tail and stays above 1.0800, whole new scenario and the playbook changes. This is a wonderful way to make a living. And a very crazy way to make a living. Happy Trades to you. NB
Good point.. I have similar thoughts in mind.. Therefore, it is best to wait how this day ends..

My crucial level is 1.0774-ish... Let's say 1.0770 roughly as I announced earlier..

Good luck
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,620
  • Nov 6, 2024 8:42am Nov 6, 2024 8:42am
These stops here seems too delicious to ignore,


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