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Attachments: DOW - PA, Stops and hedging
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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #441
  • Oct 30, 2024 4:10pm Oct 30, 2024 4:10pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Hi Bistolis, I do not know how to respond sensibly, so forgive me to repeat the obvious. There is so much more than a few charts I posted here. I have pointed it before, and do it once again, although I am tired to repeat the things that are obvious to me and I have pointed them before. It comes with the concept of PASR as one entity, or PA and SR as closely linked but with some demarcation between them. How one looks at that is a fluid choice one makes and it is good to know the difference, and it is important to be aware of the given choice,...
I was only joking . Because price had that spike to the downside after you posted that chart
thank you for the detailed reply though. I the way I look at charts is quite similar. I pay attention to close and open and previous days range
  • #442
  • Edited Oct 31, 2024 3:16am Oct 30, 2024 4:15pm | Edited Oct 31, 2024 3:16am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} I was only joking . Because price had that spike to the downside after you posted that chart
I thought it was a joke with a smiling face, but taken the opportunity to write a bit more, also attempting to declare accountability and responsibility to myself.
It comes easier to me to post a chart with some fragmented explanation of the historical performance of the last session, and I am afraid that it can be interpreted in a wrong way, and thus having a limited utility, if at all helpful, especially since the charts are very crowded.
So I have opted to do some more explanation with good intentions, trying to point to things that over the years have become the important part of my trading strategy.
I have to go for official meeting tomorrow, so will not be there for the whole session.
Very likely the forthcoming election makes the PA very choppy, and tomorrow is the last day of October.
Good trades to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #443
  • Edited 12:40pm Oct 31, 2024 5:17am | Edited 12:40pm
APP - alternative wave projection
DOW Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily APP 02 2024-10-31_102001.png Size: 57 KB

DOW on Daily looks like a corrective. If so the impulsive is likely to point to the rally, historically that rally has got different names.
US election might play well into this scenario.
Please check the wave studies and rules for further analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily FIBs 2024-10-31_173228.png Size: 58 KB

In the chart above I have added time fibs , the red rectangle a possible rotation to the upside.
Both fibs satisfied the completion scenario of the corrective.
I have to careful as the market might conceal the move up, as usual. Patience is required, the new impulsive move up likely to create a new OTH, so there shall be plenty of opportunities to go long after the market discreetly shows its moves.

I suspect only a very few would have seen the different colours brackets and numbers, for your own sanity please ignore them, this is remnant of the relatively distant past. Nostalgia make me not to erase them from the template.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #444
  • Edited 2:00pm Oct 31, 2024 12:52pm | Edited 2:00pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Fibs 03 2024-10-31_175026.png Size: 58 KB

A more extreme corrective, possibly unlikely
1 to 1 symmetrical moves are very common
If 41580 zone holds, the rotation to the upside has a great probability to advance north, ideally the lows shall be retested
Please study this chart together with the ones from the previous post.
Established MO on DOW quarterly and DOW cash, parallel to DOW cash at 41750, those are initial smaller MO, to assist my commitment to trading and manage risk.
I have missed the initial long entry as I have been away from my trading desk, that ok, no FOMO
Shall go long on the retest
If there is a very problematic result in the US election, there might be a shortly lived negative reaction, so pls bear that in mind.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #445
  • Oct 31, 2024 2:12pm Oct 31, 2024 2:12pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW seasonality 2023-07-01_075429.png Size: 54 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX seasonality 2023-07-01_075914.png Size: 53 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Index seasonality 2023-07-01_080404.png Size: 76 KB

just to have it at hand
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #446
  • Oct 31, 2024 3:31pm Oct 31, 2024 3:31pm
Did not want to clatter DT (white charts) to be clotted with yet another fibs, so got them displayed on MT4, the usual way I use FIB RETs and EXTs together, it is just easier for me to do it like that
What is important is the FIB Ret zone at 50

the yellow lines below are of some concern - missed D Pivots - PA rushed to the upside without traders taking profits causing the D Pivots to be missed
eventually some profits have to be realised - when???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Daily Fibs MT4 2024-10-31_202340.png Size: 49 KB


DOW has left the gaps opened (not filled), these gaps are sooner or later filled
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions 2024-10-31_202600.png Size: 55 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #447
  • Edited Nov 1, 2024 3:36pm Oct 31, 2024 3:45pm | Edited Nov 1, 2024 3:36pm
[quote=2be;15047159]{image} A more extreme corrective, possibly unlikely 1 to 1 symmetrical moves are very common If 41580 zone holds, the rotation to the upside has a great probability to advance north, ideally the lows shall be retested Please study this chart together with the ones from the previous post. Established MO on DOW quarterly and DOW cash, parallel to DOW cash at 41750, those are initial smaller MO, to assist my commitment to trading and manage risk.
MO reorganised as I have moved then to 41700, DOW Long MO set to 41700
Will react to the PA around the zone 41700 and will add aggressively on the confirmed way up
The only danger would be a complexity related to the US election, and possibility of nervous market reaction/s, so either way, extremes caution is better then jumping with uncontrolled large positions in hope based on bias
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #448
  • Edited 8:13am Nov 1, 2024 7:00am | Edited 8:13am
Looking as DOW NYSE sessions bars, PA on DOW has got the initial elements of selling climax (VSA), lots of effort with not such great result and gaps above.

VSA concept is really useful, as with everything, study will promote a sense of knowing possible and to some extend measured probability of realistic outcomes, and very importantly knowing when one's timing is wrong, or all together tings work out against the given plan of strategy implementation.

Gaps created yesterday have not been filled
Allow patiently for things to come together, creating confluence allowing for reasonable trades with a well defined risk.

Election fewer cannot be underestimated!!!! Trade well, but expect the unexpected!!!
In choppy waters and high winds reef the sails and proceed carefully, if at all, otherwise ??? expect a margin calland a lot of .

By the way, do not take seriously anybody that say trading is effortless, easy and risk free.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions 2024-11-01_115026.png Size: 69 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #449
  • Nov 1, 2024 9:03am Nov 1, 2024 9:03am
Quoting 2be
Quoting 2be
{image} A more extreme corrective, possibly unlikely 1 to 1 symmetrical moves are very common If 41580 zone holds, the rotation to the upside has a great probability to advance north, ideally the lows shall be retested Please study this chart together with the ones from the previous post. Established MO on DOW quarterly and DOW cash, parallel to DOW cash at 41750, those are initial smaller MO, to assist my commitment to trading and manage risk. MO reorganised as I have moved then to 41700, DOW Long MO set to 41700 Will react
...
Out of position now, the whole body of the intersession gap is R/S, so it is likely that this is it for this Friday, and the weak!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions 2024-11-01_140004.png Size: 52 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #450
  • Nov 1, 2024 9:33am Nov 1, 2024 9:33am
Quoting 2be
{quote}{quote} Out of position now, the whole body of the intersession gap is R/S, so it is likely that this is it for this Friday, and the weak! {image}
DOW long MO orders triggered above the gap, and this is when I thought it was over for the day. well obviously I have been wrong on that account.
Got protective stop just below quarter 42250
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #451
  • Nov 1, 2024 9:40am Nov 1, 2024 9:40am
Quoting 2be
{quote} DOW long MO orders triggered above the gap, and this is when I thought it was over for the day. well obviously I have been wrong on that account. Got protective stop just below quarter 42250
Exited manually at 42254 and the stop was automatically cancelled
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW sessions M30 2024-11-01_144119.png Size: 55 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M1 - M5 2024-11-01_144753.png Size: 81 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #452
  • Nov 1, 2024 10:08am Nov 1, 2024 10:08am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Exited manually at 42254 and the stop was automatically cancelled {image} {image}
The whole gap is S zone now, unless the whole zone is surpassed to the down side
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 sessions 2024-11-01_150534.png Size: 55 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #453
  • Nov 1, 2024 10:56am Nov 1, 2024 10:56am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW M30 2024-11-01_155451.png Size: 100 KB

Time for reaction?
WRB forming on M30
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #454
  • Edited 1:21pm Nov 1, 2024 12:59pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting 2be
{image} Time for reaction? WRB forming on M30
For the next few days, I will go long when bear bars on a higher TFs, including NYSE session bars will be accompanied by low volume, (important part of VSA rules)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW sessions M30 02 2024-11-01_174032.png Size: 61 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW TD Daily2024-11-01_173311.png Size: 55 KB


I am flat, do not have guts to go short, though some kind of retest usually follows PA similar to what has happened today.
One problem I have with shorting this current PA is how to determine risk, and anyway I want to stay flat over the weekend.
Lots can happen , both in the US and in the world.

Wishing all a great weekend, do not spend tomorrow all the profits that have been made today!!
Use it to fund required deposit to go long when things align and in the New Year get something special, something needed not just wanted.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #455
  • Edited 6:12am Nov 2, 2024 5:25am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting 2be
{quote} For the next few days, I will go long when bear bars on a higher TFs, including NYSE session bars will be accompanied by low volume, (important part of VSA rules) {image} {image} I am flat, do not have guts to go short, though some kind of retest usually follows PA similar to what has happened today. One problem I have with shorting this current PA is how to determine risk, and anyway I want to stay flat over the weekend. Lots can happen , both in the US and in the world. Wishing all a great weekend, do not spend tomorrow all the profits...
1 to 1 explained Red arrows
Blue arrow is a possibility, always dangerous thing to display
APP - Alternative Price Projection (Robert Miner DT software, useful for this kind of stuff) Expansion tool on MT4 does that same job
ATP - Alternative Time Projection (Robert Miner DT software) I do not think MT4 has that tool
MT4 has Fibonacci Time zones but not too sure how to set it up, the displays are very small, the thing is useless to me ATM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DT 1 to 1 2024-11-02_095944.png Size: 62 KB

I would recommend books by Robert C Miner, "Dynamic Trader", "High Probability Trading Strategies", and Carolyn Boroden, "Fibonacci Trading - How to Muster the Time and Price Advantage", got some other books on that subject, but do not want to make too many suggestions.
There are probably some newer publications of which I am not aware

The "news outlets" as always speculate about the impact of the election results, be aware - if they knew, they would take a position, usually against what they would like you to believe and hope you trade on such created fake news comfort/s. Needless to say they are well paid for this mischief and will not commiserate with you in relation to such inspired looses.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #456
  • Nov 4, 2024 8:42am Nov 4, 2024 8:42am
Gone long on DOW from 41875
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #457
  • Nov 4, 2024 8:43am Nov 4, 2024 8:43am
Quoting 2be
Gone long on DOW from 41875
added 41900
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #458
  • Nov 4, 2024 8:45am Nov 4, 2024 8:45am
Quoting 2be
{quote} added 41900
Add 41915
First PT last session close
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #459
  • Nov 4, 2024 8:47am Nov 4, 2024 8:47am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Add 41915 First PT last session close
add 41925 and 41950
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #460
  • Nov 4, 2024 8:48am Nov 4, 2024 8:48am
Quoting 2be
{quote} add 41925 and 41950
out 41975 (+ century on the first position) with adds a serious positive points
fast and furious
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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