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Breakout + Spread!! Sure!!!

  • #281
  • Jul 22, 2007 12:27pm Jul 22, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting billbss
Your testing is much more sophisticated than mine.

I'm using Alpari 1M bars with AmiBroker.

BTW- I do know of a GBP breakout system that has done really well this year. It's hitting over 80% winners. Profit/ risk is 20/30, but it tests even better with a 35/30.

Someone was running a journal thread on this system a couple of months ago and the Mod deleted it. I don't want to say anymore about it because of that.
Why not, if it is a winning method post it here or refer us to it.
Regards
  • #282
  • Jul 22, 2007 12:27pm Jul 22, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting billbss
Eagle uses 10 pips + spread for PT. His SL is up in the air. I think lets it run and uses a discretionary exit.

We've nailed his time range to 6-9 AM London time.
That's what I thought too.
But if you look at post #225 you'll notice he's using 4-7GMT (5-8am London time)
  • #283
  • Jul 22, 2007 12:56pm Jul 22, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting moneybags
That's what I thought too.
But if you look at post #225 you'll notice he's using 4-7GMT (5-8am London time)
No, his boxes on that chart end at 9AM London time. (0800 GMT)

I just double checked them.
  • #284
  • Jul 22, 2007 2:00pm Jul 22, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting billbss
No, his boxes on that chart end at 9AM London time. (0800 GMT)

I just double checked them.
No they don't.
See my chart attached below. It is set at 4:00-7:00GMT (ending at 8am London time)

His chart here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=225

But I have also seen some GBPUSD charts of his using 5-8.
Thus my confusion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd4-7.jpg Size: 33 KB
  • #285
  • Edited 3:37pm Jul 22, 2007 3:26pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting moneybags
No they don't.
See my chart attached below. It is set at 4:00-7:00GMT (ending at 8am London time)

His chart here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=225

But I have also seen some GBPUSD charts of his using 5-8.
Thus my confusion.

You are mistaken.

I've checked it again. The boxes on that chart end with the 0700 GMT bar.

These are 1H bars. The 0700GMT bar begins at 0700 GMT and ends at 0800 GMT.

0800 GMT = 9 AM London time.

If you set the indicator for 4 to 7, it draws the box to end at the 0700 bar. Again, the 0700 GMT bar ends at 0800 and 0800 GMT is 0900 London time.
  • #286
  • Jul 22, 2007 3:49pm Jul 22, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting billbss
You are mistaken.

I've checked it again. The boxes on that chart end with the 0700 GMT bar.

These are 1H bars. The 0700GMT bar begins at 0700 GMT and ends at 0800 GMT.

0800 GMT = 9 AM London time.

If you set the indicator for 4 to 7, it draws the box to end at the 0700 bar. Again, the 0700 GMT bar ends at 0800 and 0800 GMT is 0900 London tome.
Ok there's some miss-communication here.
What you're saying is correct. I didn't word myself correctly.
I'm speaking strictly of what the indicator range is. So if you were to set the indicator from 4-7 that is 5-8 London time. But of course that 7:00GMT (8 London time) candle ends at 8am GMT (9 London time).

But what I'm saying, is that some of Eagle's charts are using 4-7 (indicator range) and others are using different ranges.
That's why I'm confused.
In post #225 he is using 4-7GMT for his indicator. But in posts #4, #12 and #150 the time ranges are different.
  • #287
  • Jul 22, 2007 10:28pm Jul 22, 2007 10:28pm
I have tried several time ranges and several tp, sl with bad results too.

k2.
  • #288
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:34am Jul 23, 2007 3:34am
Quoting eagle
ciao paesano,anche oggi la giornata e' stata meravigliosa in tante valute.
allora il mio skype e' forex64 ,domani sono in tunisia e ci sentiamo tra una settimana,tanto il viaggio lo paga...FOREX!!!!EH EH EH
Mannaggia come ti invidio !
Fatti sentire quando ritorni e buone vacanze

ciao ciao
  • #289
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:43am Jul 23, 2007 3:43am
Quoting skyline
Mannaggia come ti invidio !
Fatti sentire quando ritorni e buone vacanze

ciao ciao
Yes I envy him too... I have never been to Tunisia, it sounds wonderful...
  • #290
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:48am Jul 23, 2007 3:48am
Quoting smjones
Yes I envy him too... I have never been to Tunisia, it sounds wonderful...
ehehe yes Smjones, but I envy him also because he's spending his holiday with forex income
  • #291
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:52am Jul 23, 2007 3:52am
Quoting skyline
ehehe yes Smjones, but I envy him also because he's spending his holiday with forex income
Of course, I have to ask myself, Why would anyone need a vacation from Italy? LOL
  • #292
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:54am Jul 23, 2007 3:54am
Quoting smjones
Of course, I have to ask myself, Why would anyone need a vacation from Italy? LOL
ahahah that's a good question Smjones
  • #293
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:30am Jul 23, 2007 9:30am
Quoting ledzep
I have tried several time ranges and several tp, sl with bad results too.

k2.
Thank you for your great work.

I was about to start trying this setup live today, but after reading your posts I decided to wait and see how it was going to be today without news, and today it was a loosing day for this setup, the pair reversed at 9.5 pips (without spread) only, and hit the SL of 15 pips already.
  • #294
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:35am Jul 23, 2007 9:35am
Ok boys and girls....

Yesterday, Sunday EDT, me and a programmer friend sat in an office for 4 hours working with "tradestation" in an attempt to backtest this "break out" system.

I am not sure if we were ever able to do a genuine backtest becasue the programming can be complicated.

1) We were not sure if we were matching the data to GMT.
2) We had issues getting the program to count "shorts'.
3) Our data was limited to 6 months (which is nothing).

With that said.....our results might be "garbage", but we tried our best.

Mixing start times (inputs) and varying the SL and TP from January 07 to July 07 showed poor results.

This bummed us out because we had big hopes for the system.

Perhaps I should not have generated this post....but we did a lot of work and I thought that it might have some value. I am sure there must be some much smarter people out there who can do a decent back test.

Thanks
  • #295
  • Jul 23, 2007 9:40am Jul 23, 2007 9:40am
Quoting Skygod
Ok boys and girls....

Yesterday, Sunday EDT, me and a programmer friend sat in an office for 4 hours working with "tradestation" in an attempt to backtest this "break out" system.

I am not sure if we were ever able to do a genuine backtest becasue the programming can be complicated.

1) We were not sure if we were matching the data to GMT.
2) We had issues getting the program to count "shorts'.
3) Our data was limited to 6 months (which is nothing).

With that said.....our results might be "garbage", but we tried our best.

Mixing start times (inputs) and varying the SL and TP from January 07 to July 07 showed poor results.

This bummed us out because we had big hopes for the system.

Perhaps I should not have generated this post....but we did a lot of work and I thought that it might have some value. I am sure there must be some much smarter people out there who can do a decent back test.

Thanks

I reached the same conclusion.

I could not get Amibroker to properly account for the spread.

That should have worked in favor of this system.

I tested GBP/USD from April1 through Friday.

It lost big money with every reasonable combination of PT and SL and in both of the time periods we have discussed.

I saw enough to not want to spend any more time on it.
  • #296
  • Jul 23, 2007 10:18am Jul 23, 2007 10:18am
Fair enough.
Thanks for all the backtesting guys.
I think executing this method purely on a set S/L and Profit target would not work over the long run.
Discretion needs to be used for the exit (profit or stop loss). And based on some of Eagle's posts, it seems that he does use some discretion.
But that opens up a whole new can of worms so there's no point of going into that.

Take care,
Tom
  • #297
  • Jul 23, 2007 10:24am Jul 23, 2007 10:24am
Quoting billbss
I reached the same conclusion.

I could not get Amibroker to properly account for the spread.

That should have worked in favor of this system.

I tested GBP/USD from April1 through Friday.

It lost big money with every reasonable combination of PT and SL and in both of the time periods we have discussed.

I saw enough to not want to spend any more time on it.
@Billbss....

Well, misery loves company. I am sorry that you had trouble with the testing too.

So, what do you think? Is our testing flawed or is the system flawed? When I only used data from June 07 and coupled it with stochastics (from post #266) it seemd to work very well on the GU pair. Maybe I was "curve fitting" the data becasue I wanted the system to be a winner?

I welcome your comments.

Thanks for taking the time to attempt the back test.
  • #298
  • Jul 23, 2007 10:27am Jul 23, 2007 10:27am
Quoting moneybags
Fair enough.
Thanks for all the backtesting guys.
I think executing this method purely on a set S/L and Profit target would not work over the long run.
Discretion needs to be used for the exit (profit or stop loss). And based on some of Eagle's posts, it seems that he does use some discretion.
But that opens up a whole new can of worms so there's no point of going into that.

Take care,
Tom
Thanks for the comment....... I agree. Fixed SL and TP do not seem to work, nor does blindly entering the trade with pending orders at the each side of the box.

Oh well?

Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks.
  • #299
  • Jul 23, 2007 10:42am Jul 23, 2007 10:42am
Quoting Skygod
@Billbss....

Well, misery loves company. I am sorry that you had trouble with the testing too.

So, what do you think? Is our testing flawed or is the system flawed? When I only used data from June 07 and coupled it with stochastics (from post #266) it seemd to work very well on the GU pair. Maybe I was "curve fitting" the data becasue I wanted the system to be a winner?

I welcome your comments.

Thanks for taking the time to attempt the back test.

I think it's a losing system.

If Eagle makes money with it, he's using a lot of discretion with rules that we don't know about.

It might be possible to tweak it by expanding the width of the box or tying the PT and SL to the ATR etc. and make it a winner.

I think there are better systems on this forum and elsewhere to spend time on.
  • #300
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:31pm Jul 23, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting billbss
I think it's a losing system.

I think there are better systems on this forum and elsewhere to spend time on.
What systems do you think are the best?
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