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Exits: Our worst enemy

  • #101
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:39am Jul 19, 2007 8:39am
I use MT4 for charting.
This is what works for me.
10 and 20 MA crosses to get in. Got from an x banker.
I use 5 34 5 MACD on the 1 hour only to conferm entry. (works perfectallly)
got it from Constance Brown beginner book.

TO EXIT I use the zig-zag you find on MT4 - this is what gives me the courage to hold on to my position. When that snaps into place - jump.
If you are in a trend it means that the next few bars will end up going back to and closing inside the 10 and 20. This is where you watch the MACD again. It will show you when to get in again even in a trend.

I use Oanda so that I can compound each time.

Sounds simple but it took me 18 months of studying and experimenting with everything to find my personal system.
  • #102
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:13am Jul 19, 2007 9:13am
Quoting cybernan
I use MT4 for charting.
This is what works for me.
10 and 20 MA crosses to get in. Got from an x banker.
I use 5 34 5 MACD on the 1 hour only to conferm entry. (works perfectallly)
got it from Constance Brown beginner book.

TO EXIT I use the zig-zag you find on MT4 - this is what gives me the courage to hold on to my position. When that snaps into place - jump.
If you are in a trend it means that the next few bars will end up going back to and closing inside the 10 and 20. This is where you watch the MACD again. It will show you when to get in again even in a trend.

I use Oanda so that I can compound each time.

Sounds simple but it took me 18 months of studying and experimenting with everything to find my personal system.
hi cyberman, could you give us more inside information about the right use of the macd in connection with the MAs? im very interested in this system cause i use MAs as well.

maybe with a buy and a sell signal on a screenshot, please.

thanks
  • #103
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:23am Jul 19, 2007 9:23am
The big problem with the random entry/exit argument is everyone is comparing apples and oranges. In the random entry, planned exit, your exit is based on your entry conditions. If you want a fair game for comparison, you have to select your random exit (and be able to guarantee it), and then plan your entry based on that knowlege. Or equvalently plan an exit, and then randomly select a prior entry and direction. Can't see much chance of either happening....
  • #104
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:39am Jul 19, 2007 9:39am
Quoting HalifaxCB
The big problem with the random entry/exit argument is everyone is comparing apples and oranges. In the random entry, planned exit, your exit is based on your entry conditions. If you want a fair game for comparison, you have to select your random exit (and be able to guarantee it), and then plan your entry based on that knowlege. Or equvalently plan an exit, and then randomly select a prior entry and direction. Can't see much chance of either happening....
How is randomness based on anything? You're planned exit would not be based around your entry conditions, for your entry would have no conditions, that is the point of making it random.. What you're exit would be based on are the conditions in place AFTER you entered the trade which would have nothing to do with how you entered the market in the experiment..
  • #105
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:43am Jul 19, 2007 9:43am
Quoting SunTrader
The only problem of a random entry and/or exit is ...... nobody does that. At least nobody who wants to last past their 1st week of trading.

Coin flipping is purely an academic argument and the record of academia's move into trading (LTCM etc.) is not very good.

Although I agree a majority of traders place far too much importance on entries, not trying to gain an edge from the start of the trade is plain silly.

Sun Tzu "The best battle, is the battle that is won without being fought".

If you start off in the hole, yes a great entry can save you. But why do it that way?

we all know nobody does that... BUT that is not at all the point..

the only point being made, is that entries and exits are different, with exits having a bigger impact on the outcome of a trading technique, system, or method.
  • #106
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:58am Jul 19, 2007 9:58am
Quoting Mr demark
Guys, i have a problem. A big problem in my opinion.

I tend to exit without a good reason and i cant break out of the habbit!

Today i exited my eurcad and usdcad short trades for 20 and 46 pips respectively...For no good reason at all other othan i was in profit.

HELP
So..I exit when my stomach hurts!

Actually, if you can close your eyes for 20 seconds, look at the news calendar, look at all the pairs and then formulate a convincing statement about closing your trade, then close it. I personally prefer staying out rather than staying in with a stomach ache.

Regards,
-P
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #107
  • Jul 19, 2007 2:50pm Jul 19, 2007 2:50pm
Hi Wallboroff

the MACD - 5 34 5 just matches the one hour. Try it and see. It gets you in safely but a bit late like the MA cross does. But I'd rather be a bit late than sorry. It is the zig-zag that hits the pivot that you can get out without loosing any pips. Actually you can go look at the pivot on the 15 min or 5 min. to make sure it is a pivot with a pull back. If it is you don't have to wait for the MACD to get in again.

I also use Raghee's 34 MA wave for some trades. I use s/r lines to figure out where to put S/
and TP

My attention has been on learning FOREX not on learning much abouat the computer. So sorry, no picutres.

Big drawback is that you have to look every hour to take advantage of the zig-zag. But Iam a retiree and got nothing but time.
  • #108
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:31pm Jul 19, 2007 10:31pm
Quoting merlin
hmm, may have thought of an even better way to explain my point (for the 4th time)

pretend you are trading two systems. you happen to be long GBPUSD because systemA got you in the trade 3 days ago. systemB now gives you a short signal on GBPUSD. so now you have to get rid of the long GBPUSD position (get short, or at least get flat). the very next trade that you make, to get rid of the long position, is that an exit, or an entry? or does it even matter?

Merlin,
I love the way you look at this and agree that it is very helpful to think of all your exits as entries, but an entry and exit can be clearly defined, an entry puts you into the market, giving you exposure, an exit takes you out.

But as you finish your post I will finish mine - does it even matter?

Agro
  • #109
  • Jul 21, 2007 7:37am Jul 21, 2007 7:37am
Quoting cybernan
Hi Wallboroff

the MACD - 5 34 5 just matches the one hour. Try it and see. It gets you in safely but a bit late like the MA cross does. But I'd rather be a bit late than sorry. It is the zig-zag that hits the pivot that you can get out without loosing any pips. Actually you can go look at the pivot on the 15 min or 5 min. to make sure it is a pivot with a pull back. If it is you don't have to wait for the MACD to get in again.

I also use Raghee's 34 MA wave for some trades. I use s/r lines to figure out where to put S/
and TP

My attention has been on learning FOREX not on learning much abouat the computer. So sorry, no picutres.

Big drawback is that you have to look every hour to take advantage of the zig-zag. But Iam a retiree and got nothing but time.
I have used the "wave" for trades as well, with some success I might add. But to be honest, what I really don't like about it is that it takes up even more space on the screen. Truthfully, if you give a trade long enough, it will go from support to resistance most of the time.

Also, as a side note: Her amazing "wave" should be called a 34EMA Envelope, because an envelope by definition is plotting three moving average variables. i.e. high, low, and close. I read about this "amazing" discovery in a 80 year old TA book. The truth of the matter is that price always tries to find the mean.....so want to see something really interesting? Try plotting a "wave" on an hourly chart at the following variables: 8 wave, 24 wave, and 72 wave. Take a look at it, looks good in trending market does it not? Why? Because the hourly price is trying to reach the mean of the session at 8, the day at 24, and on and on.

The results are roughly the same as just the 34, but just take up more room.....Im not bashing her at all, but I think that she has taught me that MA's are just that.....an average of where price HAS been. Which, as each moment in the universe is unique, doesn't really help in the end. Resistance on the other hand, is where your competitors are selling or have larger stops. And that I believe is more important.

But this is forex, and everyone claims everything as their own, so why should she be any different?
  • #110
  • Jul 21, 2007 4:11pm Jul 21, 2007 4:11pm
Trading is about Buying into a range and Selling into a range

No one can constantly pick the exact top or bottom
Short-Term or Long-Term- of the markets

All you can do really when in a postion thats moving in the
anticipated direction is to apply some kind of trailing stop
to protect the existing gains in the trade .

That's How......///
  • #111
  • Edited 9:26am Jul 22, 2007 8:48am | Edited 9:26am
interesting discussion. But...I don't think entries have anything to do with exits. If the trend is your "friend" , why would you get
in on a retracment like 38%? Therefore, I feel MA bands on various time bands sb used to scale yourself into where you need to go. On the flipside, exits s/b elliot wave extentions. The roulette wheel is always 1.61/2.61 ...take the cable/yen on the 4 hour right now...
it knocked the crap out of folks after a beautiful EW extension. Is it going to sit at 38% retracement or is it going to the natural 50% of this 4hr tf? Do you have the capital to risk it? (150 pips to 61.8..try that on your account- yeh sure how about 70.7 or 78.6?) Good luck all you support and resistance people and also with the ema cross folks. I am gonna wait for the turn to start trending "to have the stars align" then decide what is the upside? Is it 1.272 because it was a 4th wave down? or is it a 5th wave abc failure? So, you have to count it! How on earth would you trade a smaller time frame and be successful?
  • #112
  • Jul 22, 2007 8:26pm Jul 22, 2007 8:26pm
They are what you make them!

Literally they are different, one puts you in the market the other takes you out.

Literally they are the same, one enter's you long/short(in), the other enter's you long/short(out).


Now, I don't really trade like most people, and i treat these two operations completely different. I don't like not knowing whats going to happen, and that's a bit of an issue for a trader!

I base my entries on knowing that pair is going to have a hell of a time even getting 10 pips past my entry. If I know what's going to happen, I'm in.

I base my exit's on not knowing whats going to happen at the first area of concern. If I don't know whats going to happen, I'm out.

For me they are clearly different, I don't treat them the same at all....although literally they could be defined as being the same thing.
  • #113
  • Jul 22, 2007 10:38pm Jul 22, 2007 10:38pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
interesting discussion. But...I don't think entries have anything to do with exits. If the trend is your "friend" , why would you get
in on a retracment like 38%? Therefore, I feel MA bands on various time bands sb used to scale yourself into where you need to go. .. .. Good luck all you support and resistance people and also with the ema cross folks. I am gonna wait for the turn to start trending "to have the stars align" then decide what is the upside? Is it 1.272 because it was a 4th wave down? or is it a 5th wave abc failure? So, you have to count it! How on earth would you trade a smaller time frame and be successful?
A bull trend is called a bull trend because price goes up more than it goes down. There no such thing as straight line trend. So you have price going up, retrace, going up again, retrace. Buying at retracement is still trading with the trend. Selling at retracement is counter-trend. The same thing with bear trend.

Hope that clear things a bit.
  • #114
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:23pm Jul 23, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
interesting discussion. But...I don't think entries have anything to do with exits. If the trend is your "friend" , why would you get
in on a retracment like 38%? Therefore, I feel MA bands on various time bands sb used to scale yourself into where you need to go. On the flipside, exits s/b elliot wave extentions. The roulette wheel is always 1.61/2.61 ...take the cable/yen on the 4 hour right now...
it knocked the crap out of folks after a beautiful EW extension. Is it going to sit at 38% retracement or is it going to the natural 50% of this 4hr tf? Do you have the capital to risk it? (150 pips to 61.8..try that on your account- yeh sure how about 70.7 or 78.6?) Good luck all you support and resistance people and also with the ema cross folks. I am gonna wait for the turn to start trending "to have the stars align" then decide what is the upside? Is it 1.272 because it was a 4th wave down? or is it a 5th wave abc failure? So, you have to count it! How on earth would you trade a smaller time frame and be successful?
Someone once told me that if you get 5 Elliot Wave traders in a room, you will have 5 different waves.

I don't trade it at all, and it takes too much thought. Much like that description of the GBP/JPY you just thought out.

You want to know the REAL answer to that trade decision?

Don't take the trade. If it isn't clear, then it isn't clear. Period.
  • #115
  • Jul 23, 2007 4:26pm Jul 23, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting clockwork71
Someone once told me that if you get 5 Elliot Wave traders in a room, you will have 5 different waves.

I don't trade it at all, and it takes too much thought. Much like that description of the GBP/JPY you just thought out.

You want to know the REAL answer to that trade decision?

Don't take the trade. If it isn't clear, then it isn't clear. Period.
Bingo. couldn't have said it better.
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #116
  • Edited 7:23pm Jul 23, 2007 7:06pm | Edited 7:23pm
and I didn't and it went to 50% retracment. If I would have bought! Id be toast!
but I do like ew. The problem with most ew is that its not 5 up and 3 abc in the tradional educational system. Its 5 up abc abc and sometimes a 3rd abc - if you try counting that on minute time frames within subpatterns it will drive you insane to keep up - a lot of it will be not worth while. In this case, it will likely be a zig zag then a chopphy x wave connected by a flat then 1 day you will wake up and it will head north and you better be in on it! -- If you try to trade now, your account is likey to be swiss cheese!
  • #117
  • Jul 24, 2007 1:59pm Jul 24, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
and I didn't and it went to 50% retracment. If I would have bought! Id be toast!
but I do like ew. The problem with most ew is that its not 5 up and 3 abc in the tradional educational system. Its 5 up abc abc and sometimes a 3rd abc - if you try counting that on minute time frames within subpatterns it will drive you insane to keep up - a lot of it will be not worth while. In this case, it will likely be a zig zag then a chopphy x wave connected by a flat then 1 day you will wake up and it will head north and you better be in on it! -- If you try to trade now, your account is likey to be swiss cheese!

Right, and I think that our discussion really cuts right to the heart of the matter.

The truth is, no matter what system/method you use, unless you can see a good trade, then it's just a guess.

Even under the best circumstances, and best set ups, you will have losers, but far fewer.

As I don't use EW, I really can't comment on that method in particular, but there is no doubt that you understand what you are looking for....and if it's not there, then it's not there.

And since you DIDN'T take the trade.....you obviously know this.

Remember, by staying out, you made a decision, and a good one. Sometimes it's just better to wait.
  • #118
  • Edited 10:00pm Jul 24, 2007 9:50pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting clockwork71

The truth is, no matter what system/method you use, unless you can see a good trade, then it's just a guess.
when trending if you using indicators. it is not guess.

Remember indicators are dead. not alive. therefore as long as you understand how indicator works. you able to be profit in every single trade. and you know when to exit trade.


the indicators that I using are

Aroon W%R ADX MACD

as if you understand Aroon this inidcator, you can be profitable every trade. using other indicator to help you to see how strong the trend is.

Therefore if you able to read Aroon. then every time is money making time.
  • #119
  • Jul 24, 2007 10:16pm Jul 24, 2007 10:16pm
Quoting mtuppers
when trending if you using indicators. it is not guess.

Remember indicators are dead. not alive. therefore as long as you understand how indicator works. you able to be profit in every single trade. and you know when to exit trade.


the indicators that I using are

Aroon W%R ADX MACD

as if you understand Aroon this inidcator, you can be profitable every trade. using other indicator to help you to see how strong the trend is.

Therefore if you able to read Aroon. then every time is money making time.
Im not too sure how to answer this, other than read my quote.

But lets be honest, indicators are basically just crutches. The only thing that EVER matters is price.
  • #120
  • Jul 25, 2007 6:06am Jul 25, 2007 6:06am
Quoting clockwork71
Im not too sure how to answer this, other than read my quote.

But lets be honest, indicators are basically just crutches. The only thing that EVER matters is price.

Yes Yes Yes

I just can't believe the contorted calculations people have their indicators go through just to see what price can tell them directly.
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