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Exits: Our worst enemy

  • #121
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:25am Jul 25, 2007 8:25am
Quoting mtuppers
when trending if you using indicators. it is not guess.

Therefore if you able to read Aroon. then every time is money making time.
mOderators?
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #122
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:41pm Jul 25, 2007 8:41pm
my only question always is "where is the top? and where is the bottom?
I am not sure if indicators can handle this. and certainly getting in on retracments leave alot on the table of a big move like the $ was over the last month.
  • #123
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:15pm Aug 16, 2007 1:15pm
Exit is really my worst enymy today as i was unable to close a 320 pip profit...which is about 60 pip profit now and still cant exit
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #124
  • Sep 3, 2007 3:55pm Sep 3, 2007 3:55pm
trail it where?
15 pips. Last bar? How much do you give up before you know the market is goin gto turn on ya?
  • #125
  • Sep 3, 2007 5:55pm Sep 3, 2007 5:55pm
I find this topic very interesting. Many people are always looking for the best of entries but tend to ignore the exit. I personally feel that exits are crucial and should not be disregarded. A good entry can turn into a losing trade without a proper exit method. Knowing about exits can also reduce your risk and cut your losses if you end up in a bad trade. Of course, exiting too early or late can also turn a good trade into a bad but it's still important to understand the proper use of both.
  • #126
  • Nov 6, 2007 11:43am Nov 6, 2007 11:43am
finallyi find a thread that talks about risk. :

has any one thought of a method that can turn a lossing trade into winnning?
example, you enter and you starts lossing pips.. instead of getting stop out, you have a method to turn this lossing trade to winning?? impossible??
  • #127
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:38pm Nov 6, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting Mr demark
Exit is really my worst enymy today as i was unable to close a 320 pip profit...which is about 60 pip profit now and still cant exit
Hey Mr Demark,

Have you come to terms with why this happened? Was your hope like dope? Or did the long term trend resume in your favor?

Wow! 320 pips is a months worth of profit for many traders. Would love to here how it turned out.

Personally, I get jumpy as soon as momentum goes against me. My thought is...todays profit can become tomorrows loss, so live for today. If the market decides to go back in your favor, you can always jump on again with a tight stop.
  • #128
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:58pm Nov 6, 2007 2:58pm
Lots of interesting ideas floating around here. I think the bottom line here is that when getting into a trade, reguardless of what type of trader you are, you need to have expectations of where that trade will go, use S/R, Fibs, the direction of the wind, whatever, and then be prepared to adjust to what the market does. The bottom line is positive pips are positive pips, yes you may have gotten more, but hey you could have ended up with a loss too.

The more I read different forums and threads the more I find that everyone treats their last or current trade as if it will be their last, so what you only made x pips today or you could have made y more pips on the trade, there are plently more trades to take. Just my 2 cents.
  • #129
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:11pm Nov 6, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting Mr demark
Guys, i have a problem. A big problem in my opinion.

I tend to exit without a good reason and i cant break out of the habbit!

Today i exited my eurcad and usdcad short trades for 20 and 46 pips respectively...For no good reason at all other othan i was in profit.

HELP

As soon as you stop looking to accumalate pips and start focusing on making money then your problem would be solved.

The worst thing you can do is take half of your profits after say 20 pips and then set your trailing stop loss to breakeven and let your profit run. Here is an example:

I buy a $10 lot at 1.4400.
I close half the trade at 1.4420.
So i made $5 x 20 pips = $100.
That leaves me with $5 lot still running.
Eventually i get stopped out at 1.4450. That is $5 x 50 pips = $250
So we made $100 on the first half + $250 on the second half = $350 for the trade BUT we had to make 50 pips to do it

If you let the whole trade run without closing half it would have been $10 x 50 pips = $500

Now who would wanna make $350 when they can make $500?????

Anyway back to my point. If you stop looking to accumalate pips and start focusing on making money you would buy a $100 lot at 1.4400 and close the trade at 1.4405 equalling 5 pips BUT $500.

If you can do that for 20 trading days then you would have made 20 trading days x 5 pips per day = 100 pips x $100 per pip = $10 000.

The good news is that the market offers you more than one oppertunity to make 5 pips per trade.
  • #130
  • Nov 7, 2007 5:52am Nov 7, 2007 5:52am
Quoting iandekoker
As soon as you stop looking to accumalate pips and start focusing on making money then your problem would be solved.

The worst thing you can do is take half of your profits after say 20 pips and then set your trailing stop loss to breakeven and let your profit run. Here is an example:

I buy a $10 lot at 1.4400.
I close half the trade at 1.4420.
So i made $5 x 20 pips = $100.
That leaves me with $5 lot still running.
Eventually i get stopped out at 1.4450. That is $5 x 50 pips = $250
So we made $100 on the first half + $250 on the second half = $350 for the trade BUT we had to make 50 pips to do it

If you let the whole trade run without closing half it would have been $10 x 50 pips = $500

Now who would wanna make $350 when they can make $500?????

Anyway back to my point. If you stop looking to accumalate pips and start focusing on making money you would buy a $100 lot at 1.4400 and close the trade at 1.4405 equalling 5 pips BUT $500.

If you can do that for 20 trading days then you would have made 20 trading days x 5 pips per day = 100 pips x $100 per pip = $10 000.

The good news is that the market offers you more than one oppertunity to make 5 pips per trade.
good point! you open my eye to earn $10k within 20 days!
  • #131
  • Nov 7, 2007 7:38pm Nov 7, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting iandekoker
As soon as you stop looking to accumalate pips and start focusing on making money then your problem would be solved.

The worst thing you can do is take half of your profits after say 20 pips and then set your trailing stop loss to breakeven and let your profit run. Here is an example:

I buy a $10 lot at 1.4400.
I close half the trade at 1.4420.
So i made $5 x 20 pips = $100.
That leaves me with $5 lot still running.
Eventually i get stopped out at 1.4450. That is $5 x 50 pips = $250
So we made $100 on the first half + $250 on the second half = $350 for the trade BUT we had to make 50 pips to do it

If you let the whole trade run without closing half it would have been $10 x 50 pips = $500

Now who would wanna make $350 when they can make $500?????

Anyway back to my point. If you stop looking to accumalate pips and start focusing on making money you would buy a $100 lot at 1.4400 and close the trade at 1.4405 equalling 5 pips BUT $500.

If you can do that for 20 trading days then you would have made 20 trading days x 5 pips per day = 100 pips x $100 per pip = $10 000.

The good news is that the market offers you more than one oppertunity to make 5 pips per trade.
Right, however the market is based on speculation (unless you work at a major institution or central bank which can move markets) and therefore you can't be sure a trade will move in your favor. You can be "almost certain" but you will never know for sure. If that $100 moved 5 pips against you, you would lose 500$. Account capital preservation is the first priority otherwise you will face drawdown. I'm yet to make a single trade on Demo (I'm in the learning process) and I already know this. Risk to reward ratio. If you have the account size to manage $100.00 individual lots where by multiples of those would still be around 2-5% of your account, than so be it..however the average investor (or should I say speculator, to be more precise) does not have that sort of capital to play with.
  • #132
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:43pm Nov 7, 2007 8:43pm
Quoting SynWind
good point! you open my eye to earn $10k within 20 days!
after some further thoughts..i think you make a very good point. that is concentrate on what your target profit. don't care how much more the price will go further. as we all know it, we can never buy the bottom and sell the top. so don't 'play' god to guess where is the top or bottom. just take whatever profit the market gives you and go.
  • #133
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:18pm Nov 7, 2007 9:18pm
I have a straight forward method, from a good friend of mine, Noel, about exiting and it has done me well in the past.

I never exit a trade, I wait for it to hit my stop loss and raise my stop loss. I never put it lower then the original

It works for me.
  • #134
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:48am Nov 8, 2007 8:48am
Quoting claudius01
I have a straight forward method, from a good friend of mine, Noel, about exiting and it has done me well in the past.

I never exit a trade, I wait for it to hit my stop loss and raise my stop loss. I never put it lower then the original

It works for me.
what do you mean??
  • #135
  • Nov 9, 2007 1:54am Nov 9, 2007 1:54am
Great thread! I enjoyed reading it.

I concentrate more on the exit rather than the entry and use different rules for my exits than my entries for one particular reason.

I assume that I am always wrong.

I could look at the chart, the price action, etc., and think "I should go flat here" or "I need to close this position" or whatever factors that might get one into a trade in the first place. But then what would happen? Me being wrong would kick in.

When I put on a position, I enter it assuming that I am wrong about it. I plan my stops at the point where I believe I have been objectively proven wrong. If I'm taking a trade off of some price action (ala James16 thread) then there are very clear and objective places where if the price moves, I'm proven wrong about that particular price action formation and get out.

So what stops do I use?

1) I have a trailing stop based on volatility (classic ATR one).

2) I have a stop based on risk as a percentage of my equity.

3) I have a stop based on the same as my entrance criteria. If a price action formation comes up that would normally get me into a trade in the opposite direction, I have the same objective price points where I enter and am proven wrong. This will likely make me go flat as I only trade in the direction of the larger trend.

So the question is, why don't I just use #3? Because my entrance criteria are high probability price action formations. They are not the only points at which the price moves. There are thousands of other price action formations that I do not know about. If I only exited off of them, I'd be still in positions that go against me while I wait for a pin bar or outside bar that might not ever come.

Quoting Merlin
should my current position effect my opinion on the future? and if the answer is no, then how can entires and exits be any different? entry/exit is mear administration work to make my position reflect my opinion.
The reason I don't use Merlin's idea above as my sole exit criteria is that I don't trust my opinion. I don't trade my opinion. I'm always wrong and just waiting for the market to show me that I'm wrong and should get out. If it's at a profit, great. If not, then on to the next trade.

I don't know where the market is going, so I look for entries that also have an objective exit point where I'm proven wrong. I also have a trailing stop system to make sure me being wrong doesn't bite me in the butt as the price moves against me. And on the rare occasions where I get the exact setups that would cause me to enter but in the other direction, I react to them accordingly, but do not enter a counter trend position.

The reverse of my entry requirements simply do not appear often enough to get me out of trades reliably. But when they do appear, I don't ignore them.
  • #136
  • Last Post: Edited 3:25am Nov 9, 2007 3:05am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting Mr demark
Guys, i have a problem. A big problem in my opinion.

I tend to exit without a good reason and i cant break out of the habbit!
(Edit: just saw that the last 100+ posts already said all this, but oh well, posted it already now, may as well keep it around..)

Don't be home.
Get a side job or hobby or more girlfriends and just do end of day stop adjustment (whatever reason you choose for the adjustment, just have one - like counter-setups, s/r, bars or something) and that's it. (i.e. if you aren't there to intervene that's the most effective prevention you can have)

As for all that "we don't know who or why and where the market moves/gets moved":
Who cares?
Why do I need to know who generates price?
Why do I need to know what fundamentals cause the 100 pip rise?

I just need the pips.

Enter with a setup in direction of the trend, that in turn will take care of you, period.
After xxx amount of pips when the next correction actually makes a larger retrace than just one bar or past your s/r or whatever criteria you have, you get kicked out by your stop and you've made a few hundred, wait for a new setup, repeat.

All this outthinking and outdiscussing the market will never, ever work.

The biggest secret I've found is that the hardest thing to ever do is: you have to dumb yourself down enough / discipline yourself enough to be able to keep it simple.

Research what you feel works, write down the rules that come from it, make a plan for whatever setup you have, trade it, repeat ad nauseam.
Trust price. Know yourself.
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