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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,821
  • Oct 18, 2024 3:22am Oct 18, 2024 3:22am
Quoting Liquidsnake
Thanks A lot -Complete mug
it's late & I'll have to return to this Friday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,822
  • Oct 18, 2024 12:39pm Oct 18, 2024 12:39pm
indices pricing in a Trump win?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,823
  • Edited 12:40pm Oct 19, 2024 1:11am | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting Liquidsnake
My question is: how does timedecay works when your 'in the money', we are about 2,5 weeks out from expiration, what can i expect, for example if the market ranges around 1.085? As far as I understand its a pretty crafty ordeal to calculate the running value of an option, correct? Would you (as an experienced options trader) recommend to close it out around 1.08 (which was my initial target)? Thanks A lot -Complete mug
For any option, the greek "theta" quantifies the value lost to time decay. All the greeks can be displayed in any options trading platform. Example: in the chains shown, SPX Oct25 5860 puts have theta -2.10. This means the 5860 put should lose $2.10 in value by the next day. (Theta is the daily loss in value due to time decay.) Theta will be greater as the option is closer to at-the-money (atm). Theta will also increase as the option gets closer to expiry. Theta changes less for options that are itm.

If you've made money on the put you bought, I'd say close it for profit. Then you can trade some fake money until you get better understanding of options trading.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,824
  • Edited 2:19pm Oct 21, 2024 9:56am | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} For any option, the greek "theta" quantifies the value lost to time decay. All the greeks can be displayed in any options trading platform. Example: in the chains shown, SPX Oct25 5860 puts have theta -2.10. This means the 5860 put should lose $2.10 in value by the next day. (Theta is the daily loss in value due to time decay.) Theta will be greater as the option is closer to at-the-money (atm). Theta will also increase as the option gets closer to expiry. Theta changes less for options that are itm. If you've made money on the put you bought,...
thanks a lot for you answer. I was a bit surprised to see that (I took notes on the marketprice on my open trade 2 days ago) and when the market returned to the same value today it had around 12% less profit, despite being itm with around 65pips but I guess that have to do with the time decay.

One last question Mister, then I’ll leave you alone haha

which open trade would be worth more:
(eur/usd put 1.09)
Trade 1
market sits at 1.0825 with 2 weeks to expire
Trade 2
market sits at 1.085 with 1 day to expire

Againg, thanks a lot for taking the time to answer
  • #19,825
  • Oct 21, 2024 3:42pm Oct 21, 2024 3:42pm
same strike option with more time to expiry should have more value, but you have to account for gamma losses for options that are near atm & near expiry.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,826
  • Oct 21, 2024 6:15pm Oct 21, 2024 6:15pm
Quoting The Fool
indices pricing in a Trump win?
yeah maybe. Lots of comments on the fin press shows today about how the polymarket and other similar venue volume has been dominated by just a few "whales" whose bets have skewed the odds but do not really correlate to a "one man, one vote" election. Everything I continue to see suggests the election will be very close.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,827
  • Oct 23, 2024 1:45am Oct 23, 2024 1:45am
hate this fucking market....every little dip is bought....sideways is the new down...ATR and volume crashing, but no selling...fuck you Wall Street. Fuck you Tom Lee. I can't wait til aliens invade and eat all a ya'll.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,828
  • Oct 24, 2024 12:34pm Oct 24, 2024 12:34pm
PUT spread trying to break even. Elon fucked me.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,829
  • Oct 25, 2024 7:10pm Oct 25, 2024 7:10pm
entered a bunch of these today, still looking for a decent pullback. SPX put cldr will b/e at 5850 on 11/4, where I'll be looking to exit half or more
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,830
  • Oct 26, 2024 2:34am Oct 26, 2024 2:34am
post election rally a good chance
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  • #19,831
  • Oct 28, 2024 2:59pm Oct 28, 2024 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
post election rally a good chance
2-Way time trades in SPX. NDX, QQQ, and SPY, everything rolled to Nov8/11. Margin maxed out, I will have to look at reducing winners on Friday. Lots of heavy ERs this week along with big data drops, but everything overshadowed by Nov5 elections. Polls are tight but betting markets have favored Trump for the last 3+ weeks. I am shading short deltas about 60/40, but I will do ok either way if the market will just break hard out of its range during election week. I have some asymmetrical short trades on that will pay out 6 figures in a post election crisis scenario....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,832
  • Oct 30, 2024 1:31am Oct 30, 2024 1:31am
Gold is priced in US dollars, so its price is hugely dependent on the strength of the currency. When USD rises, gold's price will often fall – a strong negative correlation.

Why are gold and usd going up at the same time?
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""TP is whatever you can get before it goes against you.""
  • #19,833
  • Oct 30, 2024 3:25am Oct 30, 2024 3:25am
Quoting 1dominican
Why are gold and usd going up at the same time?
USD bid and US equities are bid, that's a little divergent, also. It seems the world is awash in liquidity and what's getting bought is what's better to own than anything, or at least enough traders believe that. These divergences tend to not last very long, but we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,834
  • Oct 30, 2024 3:27am Oct 30, 2024 3:27am
I told myself I'd shitcan the RUT, but it does offer these near risk free combos around the monthly opex dates sometimes, if you get in well in advance....
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  • #19,835
  • Oct 31, 2024 12:07pm Oct 31, 2024 12:07pm
Had to wait too long for this bear break. I'd rolled this up 100 pts up once, I think. Anyway finally some profit. Closed 1/2 for $10 today, a $2 net. Will take a chance on the balance for another red day Friday. If we sell off hard into the close, I'll probably take it all then.... That's all I have for the week, everything else is Nov 8/11 spreads.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,836
  • Oct 31, 2024 4:01pm Oct 31, 2024 4:01pm
Quoting The Fool
Had to wait too long for this bear break. I'd rolled this up 100 pts up once, I think. Anyway finally some profit. Closed 1/2 for $10 today, a $2 net. Will take a chance on the balance for another red day Friday. If we sell off hard into the close, I'll probably take it all then.... That's all I have for the week, everything else is Nov 8/11 spreads. {image}
i thought about you today with this gigantic move.
Been quietly following along.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #19,837
  • Oct 31, 2024 6:19pm Oct 31, 2024 6:19pm
Quoting The Fool
If we sell off hard into the close, I'll probably take it all then.... That's all I have for the week, everything else is Nov 8/11 spreads.
HAD A $15 TP and it didn't get hit, so I will see what tomorrow brings. Lots of stuff riding for some good beta post-election. Double SPX calendar., about 4x the size shown...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,838
  • Oct 31, 2024 6:20pm Oct 31, 2024 6:20pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} i thought about you today with this gigantic move. Been quietly following along. Rufus
hey man, what're you trading these days?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,839
  • Oct 31, 2024 7:15pm Oct 31, 2024 7:15pm
I still trade SPY, especially when I'm redlining the euro style margins....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,840
  • Oct 31, 2024 7:26pm Oct 31, 2024 7:26pm
One of these days Ima hit the motherlode....
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