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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,801
  • Oct 9, 2024 7:29pm Oct 9, 2024 7:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}RUT is a brokedck dawg I am about to abandon at the junkyard
<90-PT RANGE FOR A SOLID MONTH. FUCK YOU, TOM LEE.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,802
  • Oct 9, 2024 7:37pm Oct 9, 2024 7:37pm
No sandwich for Tom Lee.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,803
  • Oct 10, 2024 2:57am Oct 10, 2024 2:57am
no love for this put hog, in for $6, worth about $4 atm. If I can get a bit of luck & downturn thurs-fri, I will try to roll it out another week and up, as far as I can afford, probly another 50 pts max....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,804
  • Oct 10, 2024 9:11am Oct 10, 2024 9:11am
DIA
im long puts with 0 days to exp
""TP is whatever you can get before it goes against you.""
  • #19,805
  • Oct 10, 2024 2:11pm Oct 10, 2024 2:11pm
Dia
im short with stoploss above today high
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""TP is whatever you can get before it goes against you.""
  • #19,806
  • Oct 11, 2024 12:39am Oct 11, 2024 12:39am
Why is VIX going up while dia,qqq,and spy are going to?
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""TP is whatever you can get before it goes against you.""
  • #19,807
  • Oct 12, 2024 1:27am Oct 12, 2024 1:27am
Quoting The Fool
no love for this put hog, in for $6, worth about $4 atm. If I can get a bit of luck & downturn thurs-fri, I will try to roll it out another week and up, as far as I can afford, probly another 50 pts max....
$3 loss on these put spreads, hurt my feelings, so I revengetrade doubledown rolled them out to Nov1/4 5650/5600. I insist on getting a pre-election pullback.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,808
  • Oct 12, 2024 1:45am Oct 12, 2024 1:45am
bull run since October '23, 50 weekly candles, only 12 red, only 6-7 of those with any range
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,809
  • Oct 12, 2024 11:33pm Oct 12, 2024 11:33pm
Quoting 1dominican
Why is VIX going up while dia,qqq,and spy are going to? {image} {image} {image}
VIX is a forward looking parameter, calculated based on SPX options. Read all about it here:

https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_i...ethodology.pdf ....no reason you can't have rising indices and rising VIX at the same time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,810
  • Oct 12, 2024 11:49pm Oct 12, 2024 11:49pm
Quoting The Fool
bull run since October '23, 50 weekly candles, only 12 red, only 6-7 of those with any range
Don't fight it, get some long deltas. SPX AM/PM diag a goto for the opex week...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,811
  • Oct 13, 2024 10:04am Oct 13, 2024 10:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} VIX is a forward looking parameter, calculated based on SPX options. Read all about it here: https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_i...ethodology.pdf ....no reason you can't have rising indices and rising VIX at the same time.
How are you going to hedge ,if the both move the same way?
i hear that they are inversely correlated
so you buy spy and uvxy ?
""TP is whatever you can get before it goes against you.""
  • #19,812
  • Oct 13, 2024 2:57pm Oct 13, 2024 2:57pm
Quoting 1dominican
{quote} How are you going to hedge ,if the both move the same way? i hear that they are inversely correlated so you buy spy and uvxy ?
good question. Long SPY (share) positions can of course be hedged with long SPY or SPX puts. If you look at the VIX options chains, almost all the volume is coming in on the front week. But that's true of SPX & SPY options, also. How much of any of it is "hedging", as opposed to speculation, I don't know. SPX & SPY options volume, I am sure, has been mostly taken over in the 0dte craze. Actual hedgers using VIX options are looking to hedge against an outlier move (down) in the SnPs, so they are in the same boat as the speculators. Tbh, I don't pay much attention to the VIX anymore & it' been a long time since I tried to trade any of the related products.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,813
  • Oct 13, 2024 3:07pm Oct 13, 2024 3:07pm
what I look at more than the VIX, is the SKEW:
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,814
  • Oct 13, 2024 3:12pm Oct 13, 2024 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
what I look at more than the VIX, is the SKEW:
does it influence how I trade? No.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,815
  • Oct 13, 2024 3:27pm Oct 13, 2024 3:27pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,816
  • Oct 15, 2024 12:27am Oct 15, 2024 12:27am
Quoting The Fool
bull run since October '23, 50 weekly candles, only 12 red, only 6-7 of those with any range
only thing now that could produce some red candles is confusion around a contested election and/or increasing war in the ME. Kind of looking like Trump will pull out a win, also looking like Israel will retaliate against Iran but that war won't spread after that. So, Goldilocks all around for stocks. Throw in string earnings (on reduced expectations) and the rally just powers on thru the end of the year.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,817
  • Oct 17, 2024 1:04am Oct 17, 2024 1:04am
excessively dovish Fed is encouraging wild speculation and inflation will be back sooner than later....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,818
  • Oct 17, 2024 2:53am Oct 17, 2024 2:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Don't fight it, get some long deltas. SPX AM/PM diag a goto for the opex week...
this is what I got for AM/PM and it could do well if spoos will rally straight thru Friday. Looks like I will have a good chance of letting the AM expire and wishing on a star for the PM to go to like 5900 Friday, a good pin target for opex, another ath woohoo. 5900 early Friday and the 5930 long calls would be worth about $6-$8, I reckon. I need that win to help fill the massive hole I have dug with short SPX and NDX trades....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,819
  • Edited 10:32am Oct 17, 2024 10:19am | Edited 10:32am
Hello all

I have an issue, even tho its a fairly pleasant one for the moment and i need some advise.

I bought "EUR/USD Put 1.09 Nov" (150,000 options through plus500) about 10 days ago, just after the NFP numbers came out. It expires on 6/nov. As of writing the market sits at 1.0832.
Here is the problem, i have no (fucking...) clue how the mechanics of an option works, specifically how timedecay works.. I must have misclicked the trade whilst drunk, so feel free to throw whatever rotten vegetables my way as you wish haha.

My question is: how does timedecay works when your 'in the money', we are about 2,5 weeks out from expiration, what can i expect, for example if the market ranges around 1.085? As far as I understand its a pretty crafty ordeal to calculate the running value of an option, correct? Would you (as an experienced options trader) recommend to close it out around 1.08 (which was my initial target)?

Thanks A lot
-Complete mug
  • #19,820
  • Oct 18, 2024 3:21am Oct 18, 2024 3:21am
delta neutral SPX call spreads with no downside risk and upside b/e at expiry around 6050....I would shoot to take t off a little after election day...
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