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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #4,801
  • Jul 22, 2007 6:24am Jul 22, 2007 6:24am
Quoting streetguy88
Hi everyone, noob here.. virgin post.

all feedback are welcomed.

I'm planning to long the USDCAD.

1)DBLHC on daily.
2)near support line and S1 pivot
3)MM lines near 1/8 signalling buy.
4)potential PB on weekly chart.



any constructive feedback are much appreciated.
Hiya streetguy,
the only thing I would say is just keep in mind its a countertrend trade and as such, profits should be protected quickly imho.

On the subject of counter trends I would like to ask anyone who might have been more observant than me (easily done!) is it more likely when a big correction is at hand to see a more violent move like an extra long pin or an extra big BEOB/BUOB...it would seem kind of logical to see something that would smack you in the face...or is it more along the lines that monthly-weekly-daily signals line up that make it more convincing? I just havent seen anything that tells me this is a turnaround point, not on cad not on eur or cable...am I expecting too much?
Thanks for all the support from everyone, this is such a great thread, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,802
  • Jul 22, 2007 6:29am Jul 22, 2007 6:29am
Quoting lava
Hi All,

Continuation of my James 16 study. I thought I would look at the Swissy ( USD/CHF).
I thought I would look at this because I noticed on Friday that after a noble attempt to rise from a well based support- IT FAILED. The move appeared to be strong and relatively fast.
Lo and behold to my glee there is a PB. It has come off the 161.8% Expansion and the 23.8 % retrace of the current trend down.
So I fulfill the Fibo confulence.
It was also a reject of the weekly Pivot- So another tick there.
Rejection of the upper trendline. Another tick.
The 365 MA is sitting at 1.2331- so we are in Bear country. Tick.
I calculate targets from the original move down using Fibo expansion.
The tail of the expansion is a surprize to me. As it stems from the reject of the 365 EMA.
Target 1- 1.1862; Target 2- 1.1679; Target 3- 1.1496.
I also see a reverse sideways triangle.
This is the Dialy USDCHF chart.

Tell me what you guys think?
What have I missed?
Hi lava,

on my charts its not a good looking pinbar, but its not bad if you make it a two day pinbar. I like it because it goes with the trend, and coincides with a BUOB on eur/usd, but others might call it an in-traffic pin. Im definitely going to watch this one thank you for pointing it out, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,803
  • Jul 22, 2007 6:33am Jul 22, 2007 6:33am
Quoting 1234
Hi all,
A nice 4HR PB formed at the close of trade on Friday for the AUD/JPY. Worth watching at the start of trade next week. Good trading to all. Ray
Wow this one looks nice,
Does it qualify as an mbq special (mike? ) I dont have this pair on my demo platform booooo, so can anyone tell me if there is any fib confluence-just by eye it looks like its bounced off the 50 fib of the last upmove anyway)
Nice work 1234, looks pretty good! Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,804
  • Jul 22, 2007 6:51am Jul 22, 2007 6:51am
Quoting 1234
Hi all,
A nice 4HR PB formed at the close of trade on Friday for the AUD/JPY. Worth watching at the start of trade next week. Good trading to all. Ray
Hi Ray,
could you post the daily chart for me? thankyou very much, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,805
  • Edited 7:19am Jul 22, 2007 6:53am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting razldazl
Hi lava,

on my charts its not a good looking pinbar, but its not bad if you make it a two day pinbar. I like it because it goes with the trend, and coincides with a BUOB on eur/usd, but others might call it an in-traffic pin. Im definitely going to watch this one thank you for pointing it out, Raz
I think that there is a fake PB on the weekly. My rationale for that comes from the fact that there is a constant with all good trading systems and that is that we get a trickle down effect through all TFs. So the Daily should also have shown a PB.
Resistance on the weekly is quite clear and sits @1.2030 and 1.2107 which is very strong resistance as it coincides with the 61.8% Fibo Expansion level. So 1.2110 would be the preferred entry.(Place shorter stop + more pips profit).
I do agree with you that it is one to watch especially as it gets close to the 1.2110 level.
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  • #4,806
  • Jul 22, 2007 7:57am Jul 22, 2007 7:57am
Quoting streetguy88
Hi everyone, noob here.. virgin post.

all feedback are welcomed.

I'm planning to long the USDCAD.

1)DBLHC on daily.
2)near support line and S1 pivot
3)MM lines near 1/8 signalling buy.
4)potential PB on weekly chart.



any constructive feedback are much appreciated.
Hi StreetGuy88,

I don't see the DBHLC on the Daily- there is one on the 4Hr? Can you post your chart? Definate PB now on the weekly. It is a good one as it fits into all the criteria for an A grade trade.
As regards the 1/8 level of MM it is much safer to enter after 2/8 as you will see if there is a strong reject. It also depends on the TF you have extracted the MM from?
I am a PA trader hence I am already long for a minimum of 3 reasons- that I can not explain here.
But if I was not in I would wait for the break of the PB and go with that as a signal for entry.
Remember the price will most probably come down and then back up past the PB top. So you must wait for that to be sure that it is going up.
I can close out in profit if the Loonie decides to not reverse here but you risk losing if you enter here and now if you do not know what you are doing.
The other scenario is that it will lose support and fall. You do not want to be caught in that one. As it will most probably test the low around 1.4011 again.
There is one other possibility- that is the Loonie on open tonight just flies out the blocks and heads straight to 1.602 ish.
But use the James 16 method to enter if at all possible if that happens.
Hence you must weigh your risk and judge your ability to trade in a fast market. High risk IMHO.
As to weather the Loonie can rise whilst $ in general will fall. The answer is yes. But you must grasp a better understanding of currency correlations to understand why.
These are the things you need to consider before entering the trade.
IMHO.
I hope this helps.
  • #4,807
  • Jul 22, 2007 8:12am Jul 22, 2007 8:12am
lava I have also got a DBLHC on my daily chart with lows at 1.0410 and 1.0412 consecutively, and last bar closing a good 20 pips above day before high, Raz.
Never say never.
  • #4,808
  • Jul 22, 2007 8:22am Jul 22, 2007 8:22am
I too see the DBLHC and PB. I am thinking to take this trade... Yes VERY much against the trend, so I think only to get a few pips and then get out...

Here are charts
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  • #4,809
  • Jul 22, 2007 8:22am Jul 22, 2007 8:22am
Hi,
I apologize- I see it now! I did not see it as I still have my sideways triangle colouring over the bars.

That is great because it verifies the signal as we definately had it on the 4 hr as well.
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  • #4,810
  • Jul 22, 2007 8:47am Jul 22, 2007 8:47am
Anyone have thoughts on USD/JPY ???

Friday ended with a BEOB

I see continuation down to the 150 ema and maybe eventually even the 365 ema.
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  • #4,811
  • Jul 22, 2007 8:57am Jul 22, 2007 8:57am
Another couple of PBs.
I think that this is interesting. The Daily and 4 hr are shorts but the Weekly is a long.
My guess is that it will go down for the first few days of the week then back up again maybe to form another PB for the weekly.
What do you think?

Tiki:
Looks like the Doppy is going to 119.80 then a big bounce back up. Where is the 365? What does BEOB stand for?
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  • #4,812
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:16am Jul 22, 2007 9:16am
Quoting lava
Another couple of PBs.
I think that this is interesting. The Daily and 4 hr are shorts but the Weekly is a long.
My guess is that it will go down for the first few days of the week then back up again maybe to form another PB for the weekly.
What do you think?

Tiki:
Looks like the Doppy is going to 119.80 then a big bounce back up. Where is the 365? What does BEOB stand for?
Thats a bearish outside bar which signals possible further downside movement. Fully emcompasses earlier bar and closes below the low ideally.
We also have one on the a few other jpy pairs including eurjpy and I think gbpjpy, cant remember offhand I posted it back on friday though. Also a BUOB on daily eurusd, thats the same but bullish, so the bar encompasses the earlier bar and closes above the earlier barīs high.Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,813
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:21am Jul 22, 2007 9:21am
Hi Lava,


was going to post the chart for CAD but u saw it already.. its DBLHC.

actually I was thinking of letting it retrace maybe 1st or 2nd fib level, then enter with a stop below the 2 low bars. what do u think. its countertrend though. but i just have a feeling that it may be a change of trend. I feel that the PB on weekly is a strong one, even more so with the DBLHC.

glad that ppl here treat everyone with the same respect and don't ignore noobs..
  • #4,814
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:23am Jul 22, 2007 9:23am
Thanks Raz for a great explanation.

I must admit that this thread is the freindliest that I have ever come across!
  • #4,815
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:26am Jul 22, 2007 9:26am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Anyone have thoughts on USD/JPY ???

Friday ended with a BEOB

I see continuation down to the 150 ema and maybe eventually even the 365 ema.
HI Tiki,
I see the same thing, this is my channel, the BEOB pierces the upper tl and drops, so target is lower channel line and 150 to start...also should draw some fib expansions...Rz
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Never say never.
  • #4,816
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:39am Jul 22, 2007 9:39am
Hi Streetguy88,

I think Raz is better giving you an answer re: J16.

I for different reasons that I can not quote here think that the price will retrace to a max of 1.4060 although I will be looking for 66 and maybe 74 to hold. As I have said before if it goes lower I close my trade and will scalp around until I see some relevant PA.
But there are relevant support levels these are at 1.4085 (where we closed), 1.4074, 1.4065, 1.4043 and 1.4011. There is one more below but I don't think we need to worry about it.
Above we have 1.501, 1.0546, 1.0609, 1.0757 and 1.1167.
I was hoping that it would get over 1.0501 on Friday but no luck there. These will all become support once achieved.
The change of trend is very close the next 48 hours of action will determine trend change.
  • #4,817
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:51am Jul 22, 2007 9:51am
[quote=lava;1503387]Hi Streetguy88,

I think Raz is better giving you an answer re: J16.

Noooooooo, Im just a few months ahead of you on J16, there are many much more qualified J16 traders around here, but Im glad to help if I can, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,818
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:59am Jul 22, 2007 9:59am
Hi Tiki,
Here is my chart of USDYEN. This could turn out to be really ugly.
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  • #4,819
  • Jul 22, 2007 10:08am Jul 22, 2007 10:08am
These have better levels of real support and resistance- Areas of confluence as Mr Jim calls it.
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  • #4,820
  • Jul 22, 2007 10:20am Jul 22, 2007 10:20am
You are talking about trend change on CAD ???

If so, I would maybe not be so sure about that... maybe we can get some upswing for a bit here, but after that I am not so sure...

I know it is not J16 talk... but I see USD/CAD price follow right along with gasoline prices... and I do mean Gas prices, not oil... I saw CAD turning down when it was around 1.18... that's when gas prices here in USA start climbing this year... now gas prices have leveled a bit, and so has CAD... So I think CAD stay level a while until fall when hopefully gas price might start down just a bit... then USD/CAD start back up some... HOWEVER, should there be Hurricanes come along or something major like that... I see USD/CAD going down more.

I missed the boat this year on the down trend on USD/CAD, and I will watch more closely from now on... ( and it was a big boat I missed !!! )

The gas price thing is just my theory. I know everyone else will say there is much more involved... but I am a super simpleton... never gonna be able to analyse deep economic stuff... and USD/CAD has followed to a tee the gas prices here in Houston !!!

So I probably will trade the DBLHC from Friday ( I might trade my Grandma too ) but not going to look for many pips, then get out fast... looking to get out maybe around 1.0525-35
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