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My trades by Dave

  • #1,801
  • Nov 9, 2006 8:19pm Nov 9, 2006 8:19pm
Quoting kenari05
How about change your 5 to 3, a to 4 and we yet to complete wave 5? is it possible?
problem with EW is there are always more than one viable possibility. Thats why I don't trade strictly off of EW.

I am wondering if a,b,c has completed and mabe we are in 1 of 3 or 3 of 3.

Never can tell for sure untill its all said and done with.

Dave
  • #1,802
  • Nov 9, 2006 8:21pm Nov 9, 2006 8:21pm
Quoting jjenkin777
Dave,

Just started reading your thread. I didn't realize you were an Elliot Wave enthusist or I would have checked in sooner. I am just starting out and right now am only following the Aud/Usd pair but I am looking forward to reading all of your posts regarding the Eur/Usd pair.

Just a quick question. Where in your thread did you post your EWOCCI.doc file? I had located some info on the Internet on how to set a MACD configuration to use as an EWO but they never give me the Signal EMA number for the setup. All I have is the First EMA Period (5) and the Second EMA Period (34 or 35).

Thanks
Jeffrey
MacD will signal differently only ewo will give the right signal.

I had a signal line added to my ewo. I am the only one you can get it from. I still havn't found much use for the signal line yet though.

If your interested in my method pm me your e-mail addy.

Dave
  • #1,803
  • Nov 16, 2006 11:13pm Nov 16, 2006 11:13pm
market has been to choppy for ewocci. Usually gets like that when topping out or bottoming out.

I revised my count too. Seems 5 wasn't complete yet.
I am short from 1.2826
s/l 1.2895 (about to move to b/e at 50 pips profit.)

Target is half way7 between 50% and 61.8% fibo's. (1.2665)
but 38.2 comes in at 1.2743 so thats first support range.

I entered on a simple trend line break and retest of that line.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,804
  • Nov 17, 2006 12:31pm Nov 17, 2006 12:31pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
market has been to choppy for ewocci. Usually gets like that when topping out or bottoming out.

I revised my count too. Seems 5 wasn't complete yet.
I am short from 1.2826
s/l 1.2895 (about to move to b/e at 50 pips profit.)

Target is half way7 between 50% and 61.8% fibo's. (1.2665)
but 38.2 comes in at 1.2743 so thats first support range.

I entered on a simple trend line break and retest of that line.

Dave
trailing s/l was hit for +10 pips
  • #1,805
  • Nov 23, 2006 6:47pm Nov 23, 2006 6:47pm
Long term short order.

1.2960
no s/l

target 1.2400 and below.

No signals for this one. Entry taken on the extream high level the euro is at.
ECB cann't allow euro to maintain over 1.3000 for long. It will mess up trade exports for euro.
Plus, since gas prices are lower and people will be spending more money this shopping season consumer confidence will be high and the $ should rally pushing euro down to more tolerable levels.

I do show a gartly butterfly pattern on euro$ weekly, showing 1.3065 as a reversal point.


HAPPY THANKSGIVING !!!

Dave
  • #1,806
  • Nov 23, 2006 7:08pm Nov 23, 2006 7:08pm
Hi David,

With no stop loss, and now that EUR/USD has risen 490 pips in about one month, the trend is virtually certain to turn soon. My estimate is at 1.3030 for the turning point, but the Gartley analysis is possible too.

Fundamentals support a reversal also. So everthing is lined up for your trade to succeed, sooner or later, and probably sooner. That is, assuming you can handle a sizeable swing in the wrong direction before the reversal, which I know you can, because you normally target over 100 pips reward, and a 1:1 R/R ratio.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING to ALL!

May plenty flow to all, and all have the good wisdom to employ all wealth for the general good.
  • #1,807
  • Nov 23, 2006 8:12pm Nov 23, 2006 8:12pm
Ewocci got choppy there as I thought it might. Thats why no trades for a while. Just kicked back and waited for this range to be hit.

this position can run 500 pips against me and I won't flinch. I know eventually the low 1.2000's will come around again.

I'll probly place another short if it hits the target range of 1.3065, or close to it. I took this trade just incase it decides not to reach out and touch our range.
The price can hang out here for the next month as profit takers can hold out for the new year to avoid taxes on winnings.

There should be no big bank buying at this level and option bariers at 1.3000 might get heavily defended between now and years end.

Then first of the year there should be alot of long term shorts get placed at this level, along with profit taking from longs.

Dave
  • #1,808
  • Nov 24, 2006 5:00am Nov 24, 2006 5:00am
long term short order, no SLs... hehehe.. I guess selling your house is your SL now
fxtrada.com
  • #1,809
  • Nov 24, 2006 9:46am Nov 24, 2006 9:46am
Quoting lifetime_trader
long term short order, no SLs... hehehe.. I guess selling your house is your SL now
you should never put more in your trade account than you can afford to lose.
  • #1,810
  • Nov 26, 2006 5:31pm Nov 26, 2006 5:31pm
Ok that was crazy. $ took a large drop over the weekend and euro$ now is well above antisipated reversal points.

I might have to see it reach 1.3600 befor comming back down.

The long term trade currently in short will ride it out collecting intrest on the swap.
This spike on euro might be a huge head fake and the $ take a sudden rise on a comming news realese such as cpi or fomc. The ECB should start taking measures to push euro down but probly won't happen untill the first part of the year.

So now I just keep trading as usual on ewocci.

Dave
  • #1,811
  • Nov 26, 2006 8:36pm Nov 26, 2006 8:36pm
Hello Dave,

Lost track of EW over these past several days, especially today and Friday. Do you have a count?

Lou
  • #1,812
  • Nov 28, 2006 3:10am Nov 28, 2006 3:10am
Quoting Lou
Hello Dave,

Lost track of EW over these past several days, especially today and Friday. Do you have a count?

Lou
Its working out the 5th over all wave up.

Once completed we should see an over all A,B,C downward correction.
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  • #1,813
  • Nov 29, 2006 6:41pm Nov 29, 2006 6:41pm
I have been waiting for a good ewocci short. At first I was waiting this one out but after the price failed to make gains today, I placed an ewocci short at 1.3157. Got in right befor change of day for good swap rate.
s/l 1.3225 (above yesterdays high)
target 1.30 range for now.

Dave
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  • #1,814
  • Nov 29, 2006 6:59pm Nov 29, 2006 6:59pm
Also I have been looking at developing another entry method using the price trender indicater and basic trend lines.

Based on this chart there is a good probility the price will target the bottom trend line.

Dave
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  • #1,815
  • Nov 30, 2006 3:54pm Nov 30, 2006 3:54pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
I have been waiting for a good ewocci short. At first I was waiting this one out but after the price failed to make gains today, I placed an ewocci short at 1.3157. Got in right befor change of day for good swap rate.
s/l 1.3225 (above yesterdays high)
target 1.30 range for now.

Dave
-68 pips.

I guess wave 5 wasn't finished yet.
Its time for breakout traders to make up for losses and range traders like me to sit it out.

I'll wait till a definate top starts to form on the daily.

Dave
  • #1,816
  • Dec 2, 2006 4:12pm Dec 2, 2006 4:12pm
Here is current wave count 12-1-06

Dave
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  • #1,817
  • Dec 3, 2006 10:14am Dec 3, 2006 10:14am
here is the subwave count on the 5th wave.

Looks like an expanding diagnal and a possible wolf wave.
In an expanding diagnal wave 5 almost always extends past the trend line waves 1 and 3 create.
I would wait for a drop back below that top trend line for a short entry with s/l above the high. (good for a pending order) target the line drawn from waves 1-4.

Dave
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  • #1,818
  • Dec 4, 2006 3:25pm Dec 4, 2006 3:25pm
very interesting analysis Dave.
I have been watching your thread since the summer
  • #1,819
  • Dec 6, 2006 8:36pm Dec 6, 2006 8:36pm
Thanks for the update Dave.
  • #1,820
  • Dec 7, 2006 9:44pm Dec 7, 2006 9:44pm
still looking at the same direction as the last chart I posted. Just waiting out the topping peroid.

This range now is best time for long term short positions. I wish I would have waited as I still got that long term trade in from lower levels.
I am just waiting for the price to drop below the top trend line on chart.

Dave
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