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Texas-2-Step: An Odyssey

  • #21
  • Oct 16, 2024 3:13pm Oct 16, 2024 3:13pm
Started off struggling with the market this week, to be expected after going public I suppose, took some wrong trades, missed some good ones, got whip sawed by the news, but have to trade what I see, and the week is not over yet.

How is everyone doing?

MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #22
  • Oct 16, 2024 3:27pm Oct 16, 2024 3:27pm
I guess everyone has watched the meteoric rise of the USDCAD? Is it on your radar?

Today could be the day, no one knows where price goes, but the retracement would be phenomenal especially since the USD so strong also.

There was a Pin Bar on daily, and going below the weekly open starts to form the same on weekly.

Have you seen the DXY?

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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #23
  • Oct 17, 2024 5:54am Oct 17, 2024 5:54am
What a frustrating week, I can't figure anything out, each currency strength only lasts for a day, might have to wait it out and cherry pick only a few entries next few weeks.

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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #24
  • Oct 17, 2024 7:33pm Oct 17, 2024 7:33pm
Hi Erebus nice thread! Whats the settings for the MACD?
  • #25
  • Oct 18, 2024 12:19am Oct 18, 2024 12:19am
Quoting Erebus
What a frustrating week, I can't figure anything out, each currency strength only lasts for a day, might have to wait it out and cherry pick only a few entries next few weeks. {image}
Hi Erebus,

Have created a TE based on your TEXAS 2 Step, called TEXAS.WORD SALAD, I am not sure what Texas has to do with it but it seems unimportant in the grand scheme of trading. I have utilized the Fundamental Bias - Fundamental Trades webpage to note a bias long, short or range, to do the same as your currency strength meter.

I have only traded 1.0 lot sizes, which is a recipe for disaster and bad for trade account analysis, I have attached with an indy on to give me the same position size for each pair, and will now trade all pairs fro 1% risk. I have not taken into account co-relating pairs and trading, limited co-related pairs only in any one direction, but will look at this.

I used to work this out manually, this indy is cumbersome so if anyone has a better one I would be grateful for it.
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  • #26
  • Oct 18, 2024 12:29am Oct 18, 2024 12:29am
This is a good example, a 1% position size is close to 0.5, indy not attached, but if this had gone against me things would look bleak. A real account would not be traded thus.
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  • #27
  • Edited 1:54am Oct 18, 2024 12:54am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting Erebus
I guess everyone has watched the meteoric rise of the USDCAD? Is it on your radar? Today could be the day, no one knows where price goes, but the retracement would be phenomenal especially since the USD so strong also. There was a Pin Bar on daily, and going below the weekly open starts to form the same on weekly. Have you seen the DXY? {image} {image}
And another one:
I suggest entry when Weekly and Monthly Relative Performance the Same ..
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  • #28
  • Oct 18, 2024 12:55am Oct 18, 2024 12:55am
Quoting Erebus
I guess everyone has watched the meteoric rise of the USDCAD? Is it on your radar? Today could be the day, no one knows where price goes, but the retracement would be phenomenal especially since the USD so strong also. There was a Pin Bar on daily, and going below the weekly open starts to form the same on weekly. Have you seen the DXY? {image} {image}
Nice Method!
  • #29
  • Oct 18, 2024 5:31am Oct 18, 2024 5:31am
Quoting fream1
Hi Erebus nice thread! Whats the settings for the MACD?
MACD is Default, no change there but feel free to adjust if it suits your style.

Sorry for not being around, I really have been fighting with issues this week; first my new 5G modem, eventually convinced them of the fault and they sent a replacement after 4 weeks.

Then this Windows update, caused Metatrader indicators not working. And I had emergency dental appointment, at 72 I thought I was done with the tooth fairy, argh!!

Going to seek better looking opportunities next week after reviewing the charts over the weekend, thanks for the support.

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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #30
  • Oct 22, 2024 3:02pm Oct 22, 2024 3:02pm
Quoting Erebus
What a frustrating week, I can't figure anything out, each currency strength only lasts for a day, might have to wait it out and cherry pick only a few entries next few weeks. {image}
Longer term currency strength from Baby Pips.....
MarketMilk - BabyPips.com
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  • #31
  • Oct 23, 2024 7:14pm Oct 23, 2024 7:14pm
Information Update: Due to the grief inflicted upon me by the Windows update, I was unable to use Metatrader in the normal way any longer.

Indicators had disappeared or were unable to be applied to the chart; it was so frustrating, beware!

Therefore, I had to delete the original broker TE and all files, so many files of old MT's, long story.

Anyway, there is another broker and trades in the Trade Explorer.

The TE is meant to be way to show the method, how it can make profits, and for discussion of trades, not to be proof of anything.

PS: Frequently Used Acronyms:
MACD = Moving Average Convergence Divergence
PPST = Pivot Point Super Trend (Supertrend also acceptable)
TV = TradingView
MT = MetaTrader
IDK = I Don't Know
TE = Trade Explorer
MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #32
  • Oct 24, 2024 2:15pm Oct 24, 2024 2:15pm
Dear Erebus,

thank you for sharing your system with us.

One question,

Do you think it would be a good idea to open a position when the price pulls back? Once the PPST gives a signal. So, the first pullback in the new trend.
  • #33
  • Edited Oct 25, 2024 3:38am Oct 24, 2024 5:02pm | Edited Oct 25, 2024 3:38am
Quoting vmd108
Dear Erebus, thank you for sharing your system with us. One question, Do you think it would be a good idea to open a position when the price pulls back? Once the PPST gives a signal. So, the first pullback in the new trend.
Absolutely, if that is what you see on your chart and it agrees with your experience of price action, go for it.

No one ever knows for sure where price will go, the best we can do is try to go with the flow for as long as we can, when it makes sense for us.

Here is an example on EURUSD, who hasn't seen the DXY powering up all of October and only now having a down day on the 24th?

EURUSD is the opposite of DXY, it could be time for a swing retracement, right?

And you may feel that you missed the exact entry on the 4H, it doesn't have to be an exact entry, trade when you think it the right time.

There could easily be a buy the dip opportunity before the real swing move starts in earnest.

Of course, it could also completely collapse; dangerous times with the US election looming.

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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #34
  • Oct 30, 2024 5:21pm Oct 30, 2024 5:21pm
Check out the gyrations here on the USD pairs; could it be the big news week, US elections, end of month, NFP looming?

USD strong, Gold ripping higher, who can make sense of these markets?

Will Trump win? What will the USD do? Who knows?

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Trade Responsibly
MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #35
  • Oct 31, 2024 3:08pm Oct 31, 2024 3:08pm
The Gold moves are virtually too fast on 4-Hour, 1 and 2 on the same candle, probably better on 1-hour but maybe more fake outs; anyone trying to trade Gold?
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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #36
  • Nov 1, 2024 10:16am Nov 1, 2024 10:16am
Hi @Erebus, interesting strategy. Could you explain how do you set SL/TP using this system. Thanks in advance !
  • #37
  • Nov 1, 2024 5:04pm Nov 1, 2024 5:04pm
Quoting Avil
Hi @Erebus, interesting strategy. Could you explain how do you set SL/TP using this system. Thanks in advance !
Thanks for your question, very short and to the point, and your first ever post on FF, I am honored, I can only hope the answer meets your expectations!

First of all, risk management is an individual responsibility, it is not part of the strategy or price action, IMHO.

And the 1st rule of risk management is, Always Protect Yourself (or specifically, the account)

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Moving on, for testing purposes, I always use a 1 to 1 Risk to Reward. I had a Trade Explorer based on those parameters but due to Windows update issues, I could not use that broker any longer, so the results are not showing. My theory on using 1 to 1 is that would rather book a series of 1% (assuming that is the risk) positions rather than shoot for the moon.

However, what you see on the chart, or perhaps back testing observations, then you can use what makes sense for you and your account.

Now for an example:

I use the ADR (60) for the take profit and stop loss. Here we have the EURAUD, the ADR (60) is 104 and the ADR (10) is 110, so just round to 100 for easy placing the trade. The 60 days covers the past quarter, and the 10 days cover the past 2 weeks, for a check on volatility, if there is a huge difference, check what is causing that. Also, check where the stop loss will be compared to the PPST line; does it make sense?

And the risk is simply 1% - again, that is a personal responsibility according to you risk tolerance, account size, and experience.

Okay, the PPST line becomes the stop loss when it is less than the initial stop loss, and also, it would invalidate the trade setup.

On this chart, that is what happened, Trade Long 1 would be stopped out for about 80 pips. Trade Long 2 was successful, and the take profit could be moved higher according to what you see on the chart and how the market "feel" is at the time.

I did that for several trade on the lost account, using the ADR projections for the take profit each day as price moved.

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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #38
  • Nov 2, 2024 1:17am Nov 2, 2024 1:17am
Quoting qp2
This is a good example, a 1% position size is close to 0.5, indy not attached, but if this had gone against me things would look bleak. A real account would not be traded thus.
You are right, I wouldn't trade it, look left, there is just too much chop.

Much better to wait for peak high on the MACD, and price rolls over.

Sometimes the market is like that, look at the meteoric rise of the USDCAD, hardly a buy signal there.

And yet just buying anywhere could bring a profit; I guess it's part of the human condition to need a "sign".

And that is getting into psychology, not my area of knowledge.

MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #39
  • Nov 20, 2024 12:07am Nov 20, 2024 12:07am
Update to the method: I have added a new criterion, a filter if you will - trade only in the direction of SWAP.

This immediately eliminates many ranging pairs, while ensuring to be (theoretically) with the desired direction of the bigger players.

Let's see how that might look on the charts: First the higher Daily time frame of AUDJPY

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And the entry on the 4-Hour chart:

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Of course, everyone's broker will have different swaps, but should generally be inline, which means a RISK OFF environment is best case scenario, as this:

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Check today's trades to see this in action. I got caught out on trades early in the week when there were negative news spikes.

Question...
MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #40
  • Nov 20, 2024 1:37am Nov 20, 2024 1:37am
Quoting Erebus
Update to the method: I have added a new criterion, a filter if you will - trade only in the direction of SWAP. This immediately eliminates many ranging pairs, while ensuring to be (theoretically) with the desired direction of the bigger players. Let's see how that might look on the charts: First the higher Daily time frame of AUDJPY {image} And the entry on the 4-Hour chart: {image} Of course, everyone's broker will have different swaps, but should generally be inline, which means a RISK OFF environment is best case scenario, as this: {image} Check...
How are you determining swap.
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