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  • #2,401
  • Oct 9, 2024 2:56am Oct 9, 2024 2:56am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv if you apply the EW basic laws/rules that I posted a link a while back, then wave 2 – 3 must be longer than wave 1 (hence you can predetermine the minium length that wave 2 – 3 should be, which in turn helps you better read the charts, most of the time the move will do a 1/1 move off wave 1), you can follow it through the time frames as we adjust/curve fit the unfolding waves in each time frame, any sideways move (retrace) may have multiple moves up/down, but so long as it stays within the current wave, it is just what it is 'movement'...
Phil,
Thanks for the explanation, do you believe Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1?

Sutiv
  • #2,402
  • Oct 9, 2024 4:15am Oct 9, 2024 4:15am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks for the explanation, do you believe Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1? Sutiv
Hi Sutiv

no, it most definately can and does often, it is hard to find a 'perfect' EW 1 - 5 move that conforms to all the rules, that is why we must be willing to adjust things as the moves unfold. the 'rules' are just a basis for us to build on rather than a rigid set of things that must happen.

it is in that link i posted and refferred you back to in your above quote.

here is that part...

Variability in Wave Lengths

As mentioned in the last section, Elliott Wave Theory suggests guidelines for the typical relationships between waves. However, there is inherent variability in the lengths of impulse waves. Wave lengths can deviate from theoretical expectations, making it difficult to rely solely on fixed rules for predicting the duration and magnitude of each wave.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,403
  • Oct 10, 2024 9:39am Oct 10, 2024 9:39am
Inserted Video
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,404
  • Oct 10, 2024 5:33pm Oct 10, 2024 5:33pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv no, it most definately can and does often, it is hard to find a 'perfect' EW 1 - 5 move that conforms to all the rules, that is why we must be willing to adjust things as the moves unfold. the 'rules' are just a basis for us to build on rather than a rigid set of things that must happen. it is in that link i posted and refferred you back to in your above quote. here is that part... Variability in Wave Lengths As mentioned in the last section, Elliott Wave Theory suggests guidelines for the typical relationships between waves. However,...
Phil,
Thanks for the clarification; it makes a lot of sense. Nature does not think in absolutes; only humans do at times.

Sutiv
  • #2,405
  • Oct 10, 2024 5:50pm Oct 10, 2024 5:50pm
Quoting phil13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCj5H4yWklg
Phil,
Numerology is new to me, but I always ask myself why the market behaved the same since centuries ago. With all the innovations and technology that are supposed to change the way we act; the market remains the same. The Elliot wave, Fibonacci numbers, and others in trading, numerology may hold the key to so many unanswered questions in the universe.

Sutiv
  • #2,406
  • Oct 11, 2024 7:13am Oct 11, 2024 7:13am
The video below will (I hope) give/help you find out about possibility and probability of how you trade, I personally use a scaling in/out process that this video does not cover but the basic idea of what and how you can evaluate any money management system is here if you adjust it, I am not a work sheet expert by a long run and this is his free download I put below (so no technical questions on it please as I do not know). Now again as always I do advocate this person or his courses in any way, in fact you could (no you will) find anything he has to say in courses on the net for free I have no doubt, so my advice is as always do NOT pay anyone for anything to learn about trading, this is just a good video I think that may help some understand a bit more about risk in trading and life.

Phil.

Inserted Video


Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Losing Streak Calculator.xlsx   103 KB | 125 downloads
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,407
  • Oct 11, 2024 6:11pm Oct 11, 2024 6:11pm
Quoting phil13
The video below will (I hope) give/help you find out about possibility and probability of how you trade, I personally use a scaling in/out process that this video does not cover but the basic idea of what and how you can evaluate any money management system is here if you adjust it, I am not a work sheet expert by a long run and this is his free download I put below (so no technical questions on it please as I do not know). Now again as always I do advocate this person or his courses in any way, in fact you could (no you will) find anything he has...
Phil,
Thanks for the video and the spreadsheet but how can the MM and its skew be adapted to achieve this kind of risk management?

Sutiv
  • #2,408
  • Oct 12, 2024 4:54am Oct 12, 2024 4:54am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks for the video and the spreadsheet but how can the MM and its skew be adapted to achieve this kind of risk management? Sutiv

Hi Sutiv

you use your max attack size and then add in your rescue size for your total risk, if you use any other sizes like say for counter trading you can also input that to see your risk on that kind of trade, so you see the risk for the 3 calculations on this and add any 2 or all 3 (or as many as you want to use) together to show you your risk exposure for each situation or combined situations, you must add in all scouts and your entries for each, it is not really suited well to the skews because of how we can use them in so many varying combinations, but it will help you understand your basic risks by inputting the whole sizes as I described and then inputting the ones you use together for a good understanding of risk and money management profiles that you may be using.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,409
  • Oct 12, 2024 2:33pm Oct 12, 2024 2:33pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv you use your max attack size and then add in your rescue size for your total risk, if you use any other sizes like say for counter trading you can also input that to see your risk on that kind of trade, so you see the risk for the 3 calculations on this and add any 2 or all 3 (or as many as you want to use) together to show you your risk exposure for each situation or combined situations, you must add in all scouts and your entries for each, it is not really suited well to the skews because of how we can use them in so many varying...
Phil,
Thanks so much for your explanation. I now understand the MM you used in the previous demo trade, so we don't have to apply rescue operation in managing the risk.

Sutiv
  • #2,410
  • Oct 13, 2024 9:16am Oct 13, 2024 9:16am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks so much for your explanation. I now understand the MM you used in the previous demo trade, so we don't have to apply rescue operation in managing the risk. Sutiv
Hi Sutiv

only when we have to use the rescue, then it has to be included in the MM. but as i said the calculator is not well suited to the way we use the skews, it will however help you understand risk and probabililties in basic MM, it is often an overlooked subject mainly i think because we were taught maths at school and we 'think' we know what we are doing.... but... they did not teach us about this kind of MM in the trading world.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,411
  • Oct 15, 2024 2:11am Oct 15, 2024 2:11am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv only when we have to use the rescue, then it has to be included in the MM. but as i said the calculator is not well suited to the way we use the skews, it will however help you understand risk and probabililties in basic MM, it is often an overlooked subject mainly i think because we were taught maths at school and we 'think' we know what we are doing.... but... they did not teach us about this kind of MM in the trading world. Phil.
Phil,
Thanks for your explanation. What are the advantages of a spread betting account over a normal FX account?

Sutiv
  • #2,412
  • Oct 15, 2024 7:22am Oct 15, 2024 7:22am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks for your explanation. What are the advantages of a spread betting account over a normal FX account? Sutiv
Hi Sutiv

in some countries gambling is tax free including mine (so long as you meet certain conditions), so it is just a very tax efficient way of trading.

i am betting money per piont rather than buying in lot sizes is where the difference lays, really just the way it is worded and set up by these companies for us to use.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,413
  • Oct 16, 2024 3:32am Oct 16, 2024 3:32am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv in some countries gambling is tax free including mine (so long as you meet certain conditions), so it is just a very tax efficient way of trading. i am betting money per piont rather than buying in lot sizes is where the difference lays, really just the way it is worded and set up by these companies for us to use. Phil.
Phil,
Thanks, that is a huge advantage.

I was going through some of your explanations, and I noticed you identified some of the r/s levels as used which you marked x, do you treat the trapped trader's area likewise and what are the characteristics of levels?
I also noticed how you marked the EW, especially the wave1 level, is it an imaginary level or a change in polarity, please explain.

Sutiv
  • #2,414
  • Oct 16, 2024 7:29am Oct 16, 2024 7:29am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks, that is a huge advantage. I was going through some of your explanations, and I noticed you identified some of the r/s levels as used which you marked x, do you treat the trapped trader's area likewise and what are the characteristics of levels? I also noticed how you marked the EW, especially the wave1 level, is it an imaginary level or a change in polarity, please explain. Sutiv
Hi Sutiv

the trapped traders boxes that I marked with an X and put USED in them was to show when I consider these areas of no further value to my read, normally I would remove them but i just showed them to demonstrate my way of using them and what happens to make them no longer valid to/for me.

Finding trapped traders, so they are in my view often in H1 at tops/bottoms and at places where the bars have consolidated sideways for a while, the dow lines and fib lines are places to suspect a possible bounce off or consolidation big or small to maybe occur.

The EW is more complex and I have tried to simplify it a bit by using the 1-5 count (3 impulse waves), we know the basic rules can often be violated as we discussed before, but wave 2-3 should be at least as long as wave 0-1, if it is not then we know we are in a 'messy' EW move and our count positioning may be wrong, now price in wave 2-3 may after moving about a bit messy (doing what it wants as really it has no fixed rules it has to follow) go up more to complete wave 2-3 or it may fail and fall below 0 (start), falling below 0 means (and not just by a couple of pips do not be overly rigid/fixed here) the whole move is invalid and at this point the previous 1-5 count should be re-examined and maybe adjusted, EW as I said is a curve fitting tool but it does have its uses in taking a read of where we are in a move but you must be very flexible with it and using it on D1 and H1 helps us with entries/exits in M5, so when I start a new suspected wave count I just mark where I think it may go on wave 0-1 then make the rest roughly neatly fit the rules, but these always will need adjusting as price unfolds.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,415
  • Oct 18, 2024 7:51am Oct 18, 2024 7:51am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv the trapped traders boxes that I marked with an X and put USED in them was to show when I consider these areas of no further value to my read, normally I would remove them but i just showed them to demonstrate my way of using them and what happens to make them no longer valid to/for me. Finding trapped traders, so they are in my view often in H1 at tops/bottoms and at places where the bars have consolidated sideways for a while, the dow lines and fib lines are places to suspect a possible bounce off or consolidation big or small...
Phil,
Thanks for all your input on this journey.
What option(s) will you take if you are awaiting a trade set up but unfortunately the set occurred outside your trading time, e.g., 7 pm London time?

Sutiv
  • #2,416
  • Oct 18, 2024 10:28am Oct 18, 2024 10:28am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks for all your input on this journey. What option(s) will you take if you are awaiting a trade set up but unfortunately the set occurred outside your trading time, e.g., 7 pm London time? Sutiv
Hi Sutiv

no problem, if I am helping your journey, I am happy to try.

After my set end of day for taking trades, I will only look for exits which may carry me on past this time but I will not take new trades after my end of daylight or at that point I may consider carry overs that I can move to break even or reduce in size at least, I used to trade FOMC (outside my general daylight), but I rarely even do that now, after london close the market often loses liquidity and most moves from that point are very slow/sluggish, of course there are exceptions and it does move but they are not often enough to warrant my time to trade, so I would rather relax and chill out and not worry if I miss the odd moves after my daylight finishes.

Taking a break from trading is I find a good idea, so I use this daylight rule and most years go away for a few months, though I will still trade now and again when I am away but only when I have nothing else to do.

You must take some time for yourself and to help recharge. I find things often become clearer or fall into place when I am away from the pressure of trading.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,417
  • Oct 22, 2024 2:16am Oct 22, 2024 2:16am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv no problem, if I am helping your journey, I am happy to try. After my set end of day for taking trades, I will only look for exits which may carry me on past this time but I will not take new trades after my end of daylight or at that point I may consider carry overs that I can move to break even or reduce in size at least, I used to trade FOMC (outside my general daylight), but I rarely even do that now, after london close the market often loses liquidity and most moves from that point are very slow/sluggish, of course there are...
Phil,
Thanks for the explanation. Do you ever use price formation (reversal pattern) to enter a trade?

Sutiv
  • #2,418
  • Edited 7:16am Oct 22, 2024 6:39am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, Thanks for the explanation. Do you ever use price formation (reversal pattern) to enter a trade? Sutiv

Hi Sutiv

so for me there is no 'definition' of a reversal pattern anyway any more, I got caught up in all that rubbish they try to program into new traders when I started and it did not work out well for me let's just say!, there are so many different variations and market variables that go into a market reversal. what do call and how do you know that a 'retrace' (form of reversal) is going to be? a small or big move or a huge reversal point???, we don't and anyone who says they know this in every event that the market moves in is full of shite and just rubbing their ego.

So the turns at first are an 'unknown' property/possibility of any type of likelihood in how far they will move (or not)??? ('market is a live beast', to quote fti), we have already discussed that I only really try to take a read/feel of the market at certain areas/levels that I am interested in on the chart in front of me, many factors come into this thought process to assess the probability and possibility of a chance of a turn that may provide some good pips for me, if I decide price is near a place of interest that may hold good odds for a turn I will watch how momentum plays out at that level, I do care what shape the bars are, its all about how price behaves, I personally learnt how to do/try to do this by trading only line charts for quite a while, due to the limited info they provide it helped me develop my own sense of 'feel' for what may happen in those areas.

Below is a differently laid out and marked up chart, it is a M1 chart but all charts work the same, I have marked tops and bottoms and trapped traders for that time frame only, remember a trapped sellers becomes a panicked buyers with very often there intension of just wanting to break even, if you want to understand top/bottoms = reversals may I suggest you intensely go back through your charts and really look without any retail analysis why they could of happened where they did and what happen just prior and just after, you will find often that you can spot the potential move way before it happens by doing this exercise, it opens your mind/eyes to how a reversal takes place and all its many pre and post moves/components, anyway here is that chart to help you maybe see things how I now see them.

Phil.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market moves.png Size: 49 KB


ADDED... may help understand natural laws work better...

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...17#post1756217
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #2,419
  • Oct 25, 2024 1:43am Oct 25, 2024 1:43am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Sutiv so for me there is no 'definition' of a reversal pattern anyway any more, I got caught up in all that rubbish they try to program into new traders when I started and it did not work out well for me let's just say!, there are so many different variations and market variables that go into a market reversal. what do call and how do you know that a 'retrace' (form of reversal) is going to be? a small or big move or a huge reversal point???, we don't and anyone who says they know this in every event that the market moves in is full of...
Phil,
The concentration should be on the price action to see what is unfolding. Thanks for the explanation.

Please, what is your view on the 3 kingdoms, especially the daily, hourly, and 5-minute timeframes analysis?

Sutiv
  • #2,420
  • Edited 6:10am Oct 25, 2024 5:48am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting sutivserv
{quote} Phil, The concentration should be on the price action to see what is unfolding. Thanks for the explanation. Please, what is your view on the 3 kingdoms, especially the daily, hourly, and 5-minute timeframes analysis? Sutiv
Hi Sutiv

years ago for me the 3k's worked well in the help with timing of moves, but for some years now the USD/JPY has been very highly manipulated by BOJ, so for me it became an unreliable part of the pairs to watch and would often mislead me, I changed over to using the DXY, USDX or a dollar basket chart instead of the 3K's, these charts are made up as the names suggest the USD/a number of different currencies, for me it gave a better and easier 'read' as there were only 2 pairs to watch for the timings, it is used in exactly the same way as the 3K's would be used, I found it a very helpful replacement as we were mainly looking for USD moves within the 3K's anyway, if you look back in this journal you will see when I started to use these index's/pairs and dropped using the 3K's, there is lots of information in how I use it in this thread if you wish to look at it more in depth.

Phil.

ADDED.... this link is to a good traders post i know and it explains basicly how to use the 3K's to find the timings. it's his credit for posting this video that is why i have posted the link to his post that contains the video. i do not steal others ideas or links without crediting that person if i discovered it there first.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15039592
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
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