Historic Charts: US GDP | Forex Factory

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Historic Charts: US GDP

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 21, 2006 5:28am Dec 21, 2006 5:28am
Jan 27, 2006 (Preliminary/Advance)

Previous: 4.1
Estimate: 2.8
Actual: 1.1
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  • #2
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:38am Dec 21, 2006 5:38am
Feb 28, 2006 (Revised)

Previous: 1.1
Estimate: 1.6
Actual: 1.6
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  • #3
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:43am Dec 21, 2006 5:43am
Mar 28, 2006 (Final)

Previous: 1.6
Estimate: 1.7
Actual: 1.7
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  • #4
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:46am Dec 21, 2006 5:46am
Apr 28, 2006 (Preliminary/Advance)

Previous: 1.7
Estimate: 4.9
Actual: 4.8
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  • #5
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:48am Dec 21, 2006 5:48am
May 25, 2006 (Revised)

Previous: 4.8
Estimate: 5.9
Actual: 5.3
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  • #6
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:51am Dec 21, 2006 5:51am
Jun 29, 2006 (Final)

Previous: 5.3
Estimate: 5.6
Actual: 5.6
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  • #7
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:53am Dec 21, 2006 5:53am
Jul 28, 2006 (Preliminary/Advance)

Previous: 5.6
Estimate: 3.2
Actual: 2.5
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  • #8
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:56am Dec 21, 2006 5:56am
Aug 30, 2006 (Revised)

Previous: 2.5
Estimate: 3.0
Actual: 2.9
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  • #9
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:58am Dec 21, 2006 5:58am
Sep 28, 2006 (Final)

Previous: 2.9
Estimate: 2.9
Actual: 2.6
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  • #10
  • Dec 21, 2006 6:00am Dec 21, 2006 6:00am
Oct 27, 2006 (Preliminary/Advance)

Previous: 2.6
Estimate: 2.0
Actual: 1.6
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  • #11
  • Dec 21, 2006 6:02am Dec 21, 2006 6:02am
Nov 29, 2006 (Revised)

Previous: 1.6
Estimate: 1.8
Actual: 2.2
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  • #12
  • Dec 21, 2006 6:12am Dec 21, 2006 6:12am
US GDP data is a Quarterly Data but released monthly as "Advance GDP", "Revised GDP" and "Final GDP".

The initial estimate of the GDP for the previous Quarter is called Advance GDP and in most cases, the consensus are mostly off from the official release; therefore, expect volatility.

The succeeding releases are getting more accurate and the consensus gets accurate - expect minimal volatility. However, from my observaton from the above charts, I noticed that reversal happens a minute or two after the release; this suggests a Fade is ideal for this news.

The last release is called "Final GDP" and estimates get more accurate than the last two - therefore expect very minimal volatility.
  • #13
  • Dec 21, 2006 9:51am Dec 21, 2006 9:51am
Dec 21, 2006 (Final)

Previous: 2.2
Estimate: 2.2
Actual: 2.0
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  • #14
  • Edited Mar 29, 2007 8:03am Jan 31, 2007 8:40am | Edited Mar 29, 2007 8:03am
Jan 31, 2007

*Q4 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED: 3.5% V 3.0%E;
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.4% V 4.4%E;
GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.5% V 1.5%E - Core PCE Q/Q: 2.1%
- no revisions
Inserted Code
[GDP Compnts:  Q2 Final    Q3 Final   Q4 Adv (Est 1)] 
Real GDP          +2.6%      +2.0%       +3.5%
Final Sales       +2.1%      +1.9%       +4.2%
PCE               +2.6%      +2.8%       +4.4%
Nonres Fix Invest +4.4%     +10.0%       -7.3%
Net Exports      add 0.42  cut 0.19    add 1.54
Chg Pvt Inventy  add 0.44  add 0.06    cut 0.71
- Residential fixed investment, which includes spending on housing, fell by 19.2%; that was the sharpest drop since 21.7% in first-quarter 1991 and it reduced overall GDP by 1.16 percentage points.

Market is waiting for FOMC!
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  • #15
  • Feb 28, 2007 8:16am Feb 28, 2007 8:16am
*Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED: 2.2% V 2.3%E
*Q4 PRELIMINARY PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.2% V 4.2%E;
GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.7% V 1.5%E;
CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.9% V 2.1%E
- no revisions
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  • #16
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:02am Mar 29, 2007 8:02am
Mar 29, 2007

*Q4 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED: 2.5% V 2.2%E;
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.2% V 4.2%E
Inserted Code
                   Q4-06    Q4-06   Q4-06  Q3-06   Q2-06   Q1-06
                   Final   Prelim Advance  Final   Final   Final

Real GDP          11513.0 11506.5 11541.6 11443.5 11388.1 11316.4
  %Change             2.5     2.2     3.5     2.0     2.6     5.6
Gross Dom Purch   12090.6 12086.6 12117.8 12066.6 12005.9 11946.3
  %Change             0.8     0.7     1.7     2.0     2.0     5.3
Real Final Sales  11484.5 11483.2 11500.3 11381.6 11328.0 11269.0
  %Change             3.7     3.6     4.2     1.9     2.1     5.6
Nominal GDP       13458.2 13449.9 13487.2 13322.6 13197.3 13008.4
  %Change             4.1     3.9     5.0     3.8     5.9     9.0
Corp Profits       1172.3                  1162.7  1115.7  1112.1
  %Change             0.8                     4.2     0.3    14.8
PCE Chain Index      -1.0    -0.9    -0.8     2.4     4.0     2.0
US Purch Index        0.2     0.2     0.1     2.2     4.0     2.7


(In billions of chain-weighted dollars at annual rate. Source:Commerce Dept)
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  • #17
  • Edited Apr 30, 2007 6:47am Apr 28, 2007 6:49am | Edited Apr 30, 2007 6:47am
Apr 27, 2007

*Q1 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED: 1.3% V 1.8%E;
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.8% V 3.5%E
- Slowest rate of growth since Q1 2003
- no revisions

Inserted Code
                    Q1-07    Q4-06    Q3-06    Q2-06
                   Advance   Final    Final    Final

Real GDP           11549.1  11513.0  11443.5  11388.1
  %Change              1.3      2.5      2.0      2.6
Gross Dom Purch    12141.5  12090.6  12066.6  12005.9
  %Change              1.7      0.8      2.0      2.0
Real Final Sales   11529.2  11484.5  11381.6  11328.0
  %Change              1.6      3.7      1.9      2.1
Nominal GDP        13632.6  13458.2  13322.6  13197.3
  %Change              5.3      4.1      3.8      5.9
PCE Chain Index        3.4     -1.0      2.4      4.0
US Purch Index         3.6      0.2      2.2      4.0
(In billions of chain-weighted dollars at annual rate. Source:Commerce Dept)

*Q1 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 4.0% V 3.0%E;
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: 0.8% V 0.9%E;
CORE PCEQ/Q: 2.2% (NO ESTIMATES)
- no revisions
Inserted Code
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED     1Q     4Q     3Q     2Q
Employment Cost Index  0.8%   0.9%r  0.9%r  0.9%
Wage, Salary Costs     1.1%   0.7%r  0.9%   0.9%
Benefits               0.1%   1.1%   1.0%r  0.9%r

Private Sector
Compensation Costs     0.6%   0.8%   0.9%   0.8%
Wages and Salaries     1.1%   0.8%r  0.8%   0.8%r
Benefits              -0.3%   0.9%r  1.0%   0.7%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR, 12 Months Ended Mar 2007
Employment Cost Index 3.5%
Wage, Salary Costs 3.6%
Benefits 3.1%
r=revised


(Ignore the tail below 2.0010. FXCM stop hunts by producing opposite spikes during news)
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  • #18
  • Jun 28, 2007 6:15am Jun 28, 2007 6:15am
May 31, 2007

Previous: 1.3%
Estimate: 0.7%
Actual: 0.6%
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  • #19
  • Last Post: Jul 20, 2007 6:39am Jul 20, 2007 6:39am
Jun 28, 2007

Previous: 0.6%
Estimate: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%

GDP Deflator
Previous: 4.0%
Estimate: 4.0%
Actual: 4.2%
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