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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #301
  • Jul 18, 2007 11:20am Jul 18, 2007 11:20am
Quoting jacko
Hi FXHolic,

For a little while now, I have been setting up parallel accounts which are strictly "buy and hold" positions. These are in addition to my "trading accounts".

I had been waiting for a significant retracement before establishing the parallel accounts, and the May till mid June retracement was the one I had been looking for. This was a BIG punt that 1.3300 (approx) was going to be the bottom. I have been adding more positions, but at a reducing rate since mid-late June.


.
Jacko,

thanks for you insights, this is a little like watching/listening to Warern Buffett..

Can you talk about how you see yourself entering these parallel trades. You talked about adding to your position. Are you just going to stick with US/Euro. Are you only waiting for major retractments. How often per do you think you might initially enter a trade? How big of a SL are you using when you enter?

I will stop the questions for now, I could go on for ever!!!

thanks

generalz
  • #302
  • Jul 18, 2007 12:04pm Jul 18, 2007 12:04pm
Quoting Xenjin
My post was directed more toward usd/jpy. Are we seeing a retracement or a top?
Again, as someone replied earlier to you, we don't know. You don't know. Nobody knows. You and I and everyone else may all see different things.

Think about this, seriously. What if I told you it was the top, and the pair would now trend down? Would you go short? What if everyone else following this thread said the same thing? Would you go short? Maybe. But if you did, you'd be scared as hell because YOU don't know where it's going. Then you agonize over the trade, and if it were to go against you by 100 pips, you'd probably bail. Then it reverses and goes your way. And so the story goes, and so the account balance shrinks...

YOU must have a good strategy, have some basic rules to follow on when to take your profit, when to exit, when to enter, and when to stay out. If it's your strategy, then you will be able to accept responsibility for it, but if everyone else tells you what to do, you can push the blame to them, or if it works for you, then you have no way of repeating your success. Either way it's bad. Accept the risk, enter your trade, and realize that one huge corporation changing yens to dollars or something like that can alter YOUR trade. In other words, you have NO control. So don't worry. And remember that this trade has nothing to do with any past or future ones. So just put your trade on, sit back, and let it do what it's going to do.

Sorry I got long-winded. Just passing on good advice that I've read and discovered.
  • #303
  • Jul 18, 2007 12:06pm Jul 18, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting generalz
Jacko,

thanks for you insights, this is a little like watching/listening to Warern Buffett..

Can you talk about how you see yourself entering these parallel trades. You talked about adding to your position. Are you just going to stick with US/Euro. Are you only waiting for major retractments. How often per do you think you might initially enter a trade? How big of a SL are you using when you enter?

I will stop the questions for now, I could go on for ever!!!

thanks

generalz
Hi generalz,

I will try to answer your questions about my parallel "buy and hold" accounts

Can you talk about how you see yourself entering these parallel trades.
I established a separate account with each of my 4 brokers before my wife and I went to Europe in May/June. Each was seeded with a substantial deposit. I had been waiting for the inevitable retracement for a little while and when it occurred i thought that 1.3300 would be reasonably close to the bottom. (But then again, I could have been totally wwwwrong).

I entered the trades but with a longer time perspective and also a bigger SL position. ( My returns from these accounts have been spectacular...)

You talked about adding to your position.
yes I have added to the position as the profits rapidly piled up.

Are you just going to stick with US/Euro.
I trade the Euro/USD (in large volume) only but am starting to give more thought to diversifying into GBP/USD.

Are you only waiting for major retractments.
Yes.
IF, and that is a big IF, there is going to be a retracement from around the current 1.3800, I would expect 1.3650 to be the lowest it will go. (But then again, I could be totally wwwwrong).

How often per do you think you might initially enter a trade?
The time frames are becoming longer each time I trade.

How big of a SL are you using when you enter?
50 pips on my trading account
100 on my "buy and holds' with a discretionary over-rider.
BOTH have the anti-hedging principle as an integral component. (It is the best tool in the tool box).


.


.
  • #304
  • Jul 18, 2007 1:00pm Jul 18, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting jacko
Update on my "buy and holds"

This has been one of my most profitable trading positions ever.
Also one of the least stressful.

500 pips in quick time...multiplied by USD10 per pip....multiplied by x number of standard contracts = A LOT OF MONEY.
The progressive additional contracts make it even nicer.

Outrageously simple way to make money !!!!!!


.
I have had a very small number of PMs and emails from people here asking why I set up my parallel "buy and hold" accounts.

Everyone knows that the strongest and most fundamental driver of the longer term trend is the position taken by the Central Banks of the major currencies.
(Things like NFP, home sales in US, and retail sales are now just noise).

Most traders also know that the big monster overwhelming all of those is the massive current account deficits accumulated by the US (almost a Trillion dollars).
More importantly, those deficits just continue to keep on climbing thanks to
1. US government deficit spending
2. the Federal Reserves lax and easy monetary policy
3. profligate spending by US consumers

Given that it is unlikely that either of these three pillars of US economy is likely to change in the immediate short term, the only solution to the escalating current account deficits is the ongoing substantial realignment of the US currency exchange rates.

So I decided that I would place longer term bets on the weak US dollar continuing its long term downward trend for some time yet. Of course I consider that there will be some minor shallow retracements of maybe 150 pips max but I like the idea of getting in on 1000+ pip moves.

I still see 1.4500 as an initial target.
And I think we will get there sooner than everyone thinks.
(But I could be wwwrong.....BUT, even if I am wrong, the anti- hedging will save me).

Sorry to be soooo verbose, but that is an outline of my trading rationale at the moment. I hope that answers the questions that I have been asked by the various people.

Please note......I could be totally wwwrong !!


.
  • #305
  • Jul 18, 2007 1:18pm Jul 18, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting jacko
You talked about adding to your position.
yes I have added to the position as the profits rapidly piled up.
Jacko... I am a big proponent of scaling up -- adding to your position as you make more profits. You then exit with a huge win. I use a specific discretionary strategy to add to my positions -- You have to because you are taking on more risk and a quick reversal could quickly put you in the negative.

What do you use as a setup and trigger to add to your current positions?
Mr. Trend
  • #306
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:24pm Jul 19, 2007 4:24pm
Jacko, I have a more practical question.

You mentioned leaving your trades to sit alone a lot of times and I wonder how you cope with this in regards to the anti-hedging.

Say you entered a long at 1.3500. Stop is 1.3450, yet for some reason things don't go our way and it is hit. Yet you are not at the keyboard right now.

Now your rules say: 1.3400 must trade before a long order may be placed at 1.3450, correct?

How do you cope with this in absence after price moves through the area that will need the order at the place of the stop replaced?

Just curious as to how you handle this sort of thing, since you also now have longer term positions.

Do you check things daily? Is that enough in frequency given some more volatile days? Do you have a more sophisticated if-then-else order system? (Doubt that as you say yourself you're not so technically inclined )

Just wondering..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #307
  • Jul 19, 2007 9:30pm Jul 19, 2007 9:30pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Jacko, I have a more practical question.

You mentioned leaving your trades to sit alone a lot of times and I wonder how you cope with this in regards to the anti-hedging.

Say you entered a long at 1.3500. Stop is 1.3450, yet for some reason things don't go our way and it is hit. Yet you are not at the keyboard right now.

Now your rules say: 1.3400 must trade before a long order may be placed at 1.3450, correct?

How do you cope with this in absence after price moves through the area that will need the order at the place of the stop replaced?

Just curious as to how you handle this sort of thing, since you also now have longer term positions.

Do you check things daily? Is that enough in frequency given some more volatile days? Do you have a more sophisticated if-then-else order system? (Doubt that as you say yourself you're not so technically inclined )

Just wondering..

I don't want to hi-jack SL question but we haven't talked about anti hedging much...since you only trade the one pair, how many anti hedge postions do you have at the moment and how far are they from current price. How do you typically hit them, on the retractments or on the larger whipsaws?

thanks
generalz
  • #308
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:53pm Jul 19, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Jacko, I have a more practical question.

You mentioned leaving your trades to sit alone a lot of times and I wonder how you cope with this in regards to the anti-hedging.

Say you entered a long at 1.3500. Stop is 1.3450, yet for some reason things don't go our way and it is hit. Yet you are not at the keyboard right now.

Now your rules say: 1.3400 must trade before a long order may be placed at 1.3450, correct?

How do you cope with this in absence after price moves through the area that will need the order at the place of the stop replaced?

Just curious as to how you handle this sort of thing, since you also now have longer term positions.

Do you check things daily? Is that enough in frequency given some more volatile days? Do you have a more sophisticated if-then-else order system? (Doubt that as you say yourself you're not so technically inclined )

Just wondering..
i use IB as my broker, and they have conditional orders. They rule. I can put in my order and set it to cancel or transmit upon certain price conditions, i.e. if price is >= this price then transmit or cancel...
Mr. Trend
  • #309
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:56am Jul 20, 2007 12:56am
Quoting SeekingLight
Jacko, I have a more practical question.

You mentioned leaving your trades to sit alone a lot of times and I wonder how you cope with this in regards to the anti-hedging.

Say you entered a long at 1.3500. Stop is 1.3450, yet for some reason things don't go our way and it is hit. Yet you are not at the keyboard right now.

Now your rules say: 1.3400 must trade before a long order may be placed at 1.3450, correct?

How do you cope with this in absence after price moves through the area that will need the order at the place of the stop replaced?

Just curious as to how you handle this sort of thing, since you also now have longer term positions.

Do you check things daily? Is that enough in frequency given some more volatile days? Do you have a more sophisticated if-then-else order system? (Doubt that as you say yourself you're not so technically inclined )

Just wondering..
one of his ex-brokers, a dude called Mark gave up working as a broker and now trades the same trades as Jacko. Jacko says what he is going to trade and Mark follows him into the trades with his own acccount. jacko and Mark are best friends and talk on phone every day and when I saw Jacko at his home in decemder last year, Mark had access passwords to all a Jackos trading accounts. If a trade comes up and mark knows that jacko is away, mark would prolly just call Jacko and Mark would place the trade for him.
This is worthn reading
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=190322#post190322
  • #310
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:42am Jul 20, 2007 1:42am
Quoting jacko
Update on my "buy and holds"

This has been one of my most profitable trading positions ever.
Also one of the least stressful.

500 pips in quick time...multiplied by USD10 per pip....multiplied by x number of standard contracts = A LOT OF MONEY.
The progressive additional contracts make it even nicer.

Outrageously simple way to make money !!!!!!


.

Dudes, Jacko is the master trader.
  • #311
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:45am Jul 20, 2007 1:45am
Quoting Lou
Hey Jacko,

I tried the link. Doesn't work. OOPS now on try 4 it suddenly does.
I sent you a PM sometime back.
This is a SIX STAR thread. Five is not enough.
But Jacko is not real good with computers
  • #312
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:47am Jul 20, 2007 1:47am
Quoting jacko
Hi generalz,

I will try to answer your questions about my parallel "buy and hold" accounts

Can you talk about how you see yourself entering these parallel trades.
I established a separate account with each of my 4 brokers before my wife and I went to Europe in May/June. Each was seeded with a substantial deposit. I had been waiting for the inevitable retracement for a little while and when it occurred i thought that 1.3300 would be reasonably close to the bottom. (But then again, I could have been totally wwwwrong).

I entered the trades but with a longer time perspective and also a bigger SL position. ( My returns from these accounts have been spectacular...)

You talked about adding to your position.
yes I have added to the position as the profits rapidly piled up.

Are you just going to stick with US/Euro.
I trade the Euro/USD (in large volume) only but am starting to give more thought to diversifying into GBP/USD.

Are you only waiting for major retractments.
Yes.
IF, and that is a big IF, there is going to be a retracement from around the current 1.3800, I would expect 1.3650 to be the lowest it will go. (But then again, I could be totally wwwwrong).

How often per do you think you might initially enter a trade?
The time frames are becoming longer each time I trade.

How big of a SL are you using when you enter?
50 pips on my trading account
100 on my "buy and holds' with a discretionary over-rider.
BOTH have the anti-hedging principle as an integral component. (It is the best tool in the tool box).


.


.
And he knows how to make a fcukin lot of money
  • #313
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:50am Jul 20, 2007 1:50am
Quoting jacko
I have had a very small number of PMs and emails from people here asking why I set up my parallel "buy and hold" accounts.

Everyone knows that the strongest and most fundamental driver of the longer term trend is the position taken by the Central Banks of the major currencies.
(Things like NFP, home sales in US, and retail sales are now just noise).

Most traders also know that the big monster overwhelming all of those is the massive current account deficits accumulated by the US (almost a Trillion dollars).
More importantly, those deficits just continue to keep on climbing thanks to
1. US government deficit spending
2. the Federal Reserves lax and easy monetary policy
3. profligate spending by US consumers

Given that it is unlikely that either of these three pillars of US economy is likely to change in the immediate short term, the only solution to the escalating current account deficits is the ongoing substantial realignment of the US currency exchange rates.

So I decided that I would place longer term bets on the weak US dollar continuing its long term downward trend for some time yet. Of course I consider that there will be some minor shallow retracements of maybe 150 pips max but I like the idea of getting in on 1000+ pip moves.

I still see 1.4500 as an initial target.
And I think we will get there sooner than everyone thinks.
(But I could be wwwrong.....BUT, even if I am wrong, the anti- hedging will save me).

Sorry to be soooo verbose, but that is an outline of my trading rationale at the moment. I hope that answers the questions that I have been asked by the various people.

Please note......I could be totally wwwrong !!


.
And he explains his reasons easily for newbies like me to unerstand.
  • #314
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:53am Jul 20, 2007 1:53am
Quoting jacko
Update on my "buy and holds"

This has been one of my most profitable trading positions ever.
Also one of the least stressful.

500 pips in quick time...multiplied by USD10 per pip....multiplied by x number of standard contracts = A LOT OF MONEY.
The progressive additional contracts make it even nicer.

Outrageously simple way to make money !!!!!!


.
And he helps others. like ME to make more money than i ever expected.
  • #315
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:54am Jul 20, 2007 1:54am
Thanks Jacko.
  • #316
  • Jul 20, 2007 7:38am Jul 20, 2007 7:38am
Hi jacko

I have recently started to get interested in your thread and I must say...wooow. And I can't belive it took me so long to find a real value among other threads.I have since read all your posts and am amazed of the level of knowledge and wisdom you have....and thank you for sharing that with us.

I am not consistanly successful yet but I have started to understand what trading realy is and how should one behave in the market...and much of this understandment comes from the teaching of James 16 and his group and you Jacko....so thank you.

I have some questions that had been on my mind and i didn't find the answer in the thread or maybe I missed them.

Do you use a pip based fixed trailing stop (e.g.50 or 100 pips)on trades that goes in your direction or do you use discrete aproach,place your traling stop on levels of support and resistance,different every time?

And i would apreciate your opinion about the fundamentals.I have been purely tecnical ''trying to be a trader'' but I do belive that knowing fundamentals is very important for long term trading which is my goal for the future.What way do you recomend to start learnin them and implementing them to the market.

Thanks many times
  • #317
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:52am Jul 20, 2007 10:52am
Quoting newbietrader101
one of his ex-brokers, a dude called Mark gave up working as a broker and now trades the same trades as Jacko. Jacko says what he is going to trade and Mark follows him into the trades with his own acccount. jacko and Mark are best friends and talk on phone every day and when I saw Jacko at his home in decemder last year, Mark had access passwords to all a Jackos trading accounts. If a trade comes up and mark knows that jacko is away, mark would prolly just call Jacko and Mark would place the trade for him.
This is worthn reading
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=190322#post190322
Hi SeekingLight,

What Newbie said above is mostly correct but I also can make (international) phone calls to each of my Forex brokerage companies and say my account numbers and passwords and get updates or place an order at any time.
In Asia (esp Hong Kong and Singapore) there are bloombergs or CNN or Channel News Asia etc in shop windows and banks windows everywhere so even when we are out and about, I know what is happening.
(In contrast, when I am in Europe I am always disappointed at the lack of availability of Financial information (especially Forex), even in the best hotels. Also, European internet access speed has seriously lagged behind Asia in the last couple of years).


.
  • #318
  • Jul 20, 2007 11:13am Jul 20, 2007 11:13am
Quoting luqmanz
Yes, he advocated that, but I think gut-feeling is important if you want to be a superior trader. A trader need to develop that gut-feel slowly over time. Gut-feel can make almost any system incredibly profitable. One way to develop gut-feel is by learning one pair at a time.

Jacko,
What do you think about gut-feel? Any tips on developing gut-feeling ?
Hi luqmanz,

Gut feeling is to me simply my subconscious mind (which is an accumulation of all my past trading experience) talking to me.

I do a couple of things when this arises:
1. I listen to my subconsciousness/gut feeling but
2. try to find hard factual evidence to support those feelings
3. IF I find those rational arguments and factual evidence... AND agree that they will result in a MAJOR CHANGE in thedirectional trend.... at the EXACT time that I am looking at.....then I do something.
4. But most times I find that it results in doing nothing (because Forex is one of the trend-iest directional markets around, with 2-5 year trends).


.
  • #319
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:33pm Jul 20, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting jacko
Hi luqmanz,

Gut feeling is to me simply my subconscious mind (which is an accumulation of all my past trading experience) talking to me.

I do a couple of things when this arises:
1. I listen to my subconsciousness/gut feeling but
2. try to find hard factual evidence to support those feelings
3. IF I find those rational arguments and factual evidence... AND agree that they will result in a MAJOR CHANGE in thedirectional trend.... at the EXACT time that I am looking at.....then I do something.
4. But most times I find that it results in doing nothing (because Forex is one of the trend-iest directional markets around, with 2-5 year trends).


.
I have written the above where i will be reading it every morning.

It's very well thought out concept.

Thanks Jacko for taking the time out for us newbie traders here.
  • #320
  • Jul 20, 2007 8:43pm Jul 20, 2007 8:43pm
jacko,

Thanks for the idea.
I wish I'll have such gut feel one day.
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