Slovenia adopting the Euro 01.06...any effect!? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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Slovenia adopting the Euro 01.06...any effect!?

  • #21
  • Nov 30, 2006 9:04am Nov 30, 2006 9:04am
I am sure since this effects you that you are already aware of but I see the exchange rate has been set at 239.64 Tolar/Euro. Is this a fair rate?
  • #22
  • Nov 30, 2006 9:23am Nov 30, 2006 9:23am
It is,...since our currency was 1/120 when their was a deutsch marka,...and inflations was similar, but that was fixed for some time now,...so with a current eur currency we are already in,...we just dont use it every day in our lifes,....buy the way...they already use it in Montenegro as a prior ccurency.
so we are not first one actually.
its just money
  • #23
  • Nov 30, 2006 9:29am Nov 30, 2006 9:29am
  •  McD
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: -Pecunia non olet- | 24 Posts
Quoting de123
:For me ,the EURO is a politically driven annoyance and
I can't see any advantage other than for politics.

Did you have a referendum on that ?
Not for euro adopting,...but there was 2 referendum to join to euro and nato at once. 90% Yes for the euro and 51 % Yes for the Nato,...right AFTER the invasion on the Iraq....Each political party was promoting ...to go to Nato.
Like that wasnt enough,...we were the leaders of Vilnius declaration,...we did seek political aproval from easteren europe and the usa did lend us the money to vote Yes for Nato in return.
After the invasion on the Iraq,...a week later....the majority people shit their pants, and so we are now still in War.

Yeah, that's how they do it: they sell you a "package".

Since I see the EURO as a gathering of debtors and not
as the proclaimed "holy grail" (LOL) I am very careful
in joining the crowd that hoorays the EURO currency.

Imagine, how could the European Central Bank ever
do a decent monetary policy (let's say beneficial for
90% of the EURO-Zone) given the great economic differences in the regions of the EU ?

Let's say it's boom time in the south(=inflation) and recession in the north; what to do? Raising interest rates
even further ?


Maybe there is some way to get even CHINA in the
EU ?? They are not THAT FAR away ! That would be a
reason for the EURO to rise, I guess,LOL !

McD
  • #24
  • Nov 30, 2006 9:41am Nov 30, 2006 9:41am
I started to read a book last night that has been on my shelf for a while. "The New Superregions of Europe" by Darrell Delamaide. I started cause of what I read in this thread and on Wikipedia.
It seems interesting in looking at the old maps in the book that polititions are doing what conquerors for centuries have failed to do, put into place a "United States of Europe".
It took 200 years to put the USA into place and we are still working on getting it right. I think it will be a while before the USE melds all together but I do believe that it will eventually meld. Eventually your kids will wonder what the heck all the fuss about the Euro was about.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #25
  • Nov 30, 2006 10:01am Nov 30, 2006 10:01am
  •  McD
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: -Pecunia non olet- | 24 Posts
Quoting dukeofdents
Okay, here's my 2 cents on any currency taking on a new economy. When the Euro is adopted by Slovenia the physical supply of Euros will have to be increased in order to accomodate consumers and merchants there. Increasing the supply of any currency will cause its value to drop, even if there are takers for the increase in supply.

Another thing to think about and study before this occurs is the German reunification. While many economic circumstances were much worse, (DDR vs. BRD economies were very disparate, one failing Communist and one successful Socialist), just the increase in DM supply probably had a negative effect on the value of DM. I have to look into this because I'm assuming right now, but if anyone else wants to share notes let's do it on this thread!
Yes, you're right, they increased supply in DM.
But they did this before on a regular basis also;remember these are Socialist rules.
They did what they do most of the time: they spent money they don't have (rising the debt) on strange subsidies (trying to buy voters),and if they are wrong(=most of the time) they even increase their subsidies,because they don't care about the outcome > 4 years.

Actually sounds like the martingale thing in forex...

Socialists are trying to "tweak" the market,what ever it
may cost (the society),but eventually the market will
tweak them.

IMHO that was not the trigger for the falling DM around 1995 .
At that time the "propaganda" was still something like
"go east and make a fortune" kind of thing and the extreme high subsidies into the eastern part of Germany weren't seen as lost (at that time).

To me it seems there was a psychological trigger:

Since the EU (and therefore its currency,the EURO) is based on a heavy bureaucracy (as Socialism is also) it needed only the announcement of joining the EURO-currency to let the DM drop around 1995.
This was well after the reunification and the DM was still the German currency. It needed years to recover .

The outlook of an imposed new currency (there was no prior referendum in Germany,so much to democracy), which would be governed by an uncertain authority (the
EU Central Bank),led many people bail out of the DM
(into the US$ for instance).

Which was from the Forex viewpoint a good decision;as I recall it right,the DM was falling from around 1.42 to over
2.20 per 1 USD in about 5 years time.

Don't get me wrong: Socialist ideas sound good,but they
just don't work out in a society with more ,let's say, 1 Mio
inhabitants.
The EU-bureaucracy is even stronger,often overruling national/regional law.

In my opinion, a strong bureaucracy,which tries to regulate almost every detail in life and business,will strangle every economic effort and therefore the EURO will not be more successful than each of its components
(to say it politely)...

If a bureaucratic approach tries to flatten competition
(or other market forces),then there should be a response on the currency side to it. Even if it needs years to develop.


Happy Trading,
McD
  • #26
  • Nov 30, 2006 10:48am Nov 30, 2006 10:48am
imagine that each country of usa has its own currency. And imagine that u are a driver,..or a traveller, and u have to go to from NY to Kalifornia, and then a little south and back again.

Will that benefit You? Its that simple.

Let's say it's boom time in the south(=inflation) and recession in the north; what to do? Raising interest rates
even further ?
They may suspend the country,...and the country needs to fix the inflation pressure. There could be some other things...like a disasters,...terorist attacks,..cutings debts to 3th world,....etc.

Maybe there is some way to get even CHINA in the
EU ?? They are not THAT FAR away ! That would be a
reason for the EURO to rise, I guess,LOL !

More likely russia in 50 years
its just money
  • #27
  • Nov 30, 2006 6:50pm Nov 30, 2006 6:50pm
Great analysis, McD, I haven't got over to the university lib to read up on the DM situation yet, but you're making sense. With Slovenia, since it has a relatively low population compared to all of Eurozone, I would think that the impact on EUR would be muted. I'll just watch and see, it's really nothing to get in a twist over unless you're a Slovak. Because it has been announced ahead of time it's already baked in the cake anyway.

Anyway, there is this North American Union B.S. apparently being pushed by some so-called progressives in the U.S. and Canada, and Mexico would love it because it would instantly elevate their economy regardless of all of their governmental corruption. I'd like to hear some thoughts on it. It scares the hell out of me as an American, and I will absolutely not have it. If there is an attempt to insidiously and gradually install it against the will of a large number of Americans, watch what kind of hell breaks loose here. We have fought and died to gain and protect our absolute sovereignty for generations, and nobody, not even our own government, will take it from us. If our own government decides they want to give it away, they'd better think twice, although I doubt that will happen.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #28
  • Edited 8:39pm Nov 30, 2006 7:35pm | Edited 8:39pm
There are plenty of threads to talk about the US. Lets continue this thread on Europe. McD: The DM appears to have been the premier currency prior to the Euro and w/o the German approval the Euro would nbot have come into existance. In my reading it appears that the addition of Slovenia to the EU just about completes a new 'Mitteleuropa' (Central Europe) as a region. German and French plans seem to be to unite Europe under some sort of Franco-German control (Economically at least). Pardon me if this is all incorrect as I am fairly new to this information and like a typical American know very little of geography.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #29
  • Nov 30, 2006 9:58pm Nov 30, 2006 9:58pm
The Euro is basically a step toward globalism, or at least pan-European homogeny. It was concieved by the same sorts of people that speak Esperanto as a second language and see the end result as a one-world government. That's my take, I have my politics.

You can't seperate currencies from politics, because the currency market is where global politics rears it's head, not in theory, but in practice. The trend of late toward whole continents being considered single economies, and therefore needing to pool their resources into some sort of de-facto continental state entity is disturbing, to say the least. National sovereignty and self-determination is at the heart of the basic political philosophies to which I ascribe and I believe to be correct and true. What is good for Slovenia is not necessarily good for France or Germany. What is good for the United States may not be good for Canada. In order for the world to work well, nations must not lose their own rational action, that is, acting in their own self interest. That is what creates balance, equilibrium, and free markets.

National sovereignty was eroded by the Euro, but we still have GBP, CHF, etc., because those nations refused to give away their economic sovereignty. You will never see Pound Sterling go away, because it is a matter of national pride to the Brits and has been a standard currency for hundreds of years. It's a singular institution, like the greenback. God love 'em, I hope they never give it away...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #30
  • Dec 1, 2006 2:58am Dec 1, 2006 2:58am
eventually....it will,...and cable will be diminished like our currency in 07...and u know why?....ppl are seek and tired of usa dominating the world. period....but they need to go beyond their national superiority,...as the first old leaders of the new world...period again.
its just money
  • #31
  • Dec 1, 2006 4:20am Dec 1, 2006 4:20am
  •  McD
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: -Pecunia non olet- | 24 Posts
Quoting mrgreen
There are plenty of threads to talk about the US. Lets continue this thread on Europe. McD: The DM appears to have been the premier currency prior to the Euro and w/o the German approval the Euro would nbot have come into existance. In my reading it appears that the addition of Slovenia to the EU just about completes a new 'Mitteleuropa' (Central Europe) as a region. German and French plans seem to be to unite Europe under some sort of Franco-German control (Economically at least). Pardon me if this is all incorrect as I am fairly new to this information and like a typical American know very little of geography.

Yes,the basic idea is to form a "United Europe" (what ever
that may be). One of many rationals would be, given the
European history with wars between these neighbours,
that this would bring stability.
Good intention, but the reality for its "subjects" is a
little different (on the way to this goal).

One must always remember that the currency (the EURO
in this case) is at the "rear end"; it is not causing this
effect,it is just a reaction to the political decisions.
Therefore a more united Europe without a single currency
would be somewhat "incomplete"; just this single currency strongly "glues" these countries together (in good or bad).
So,IMHO, the EURO was not made to achieve economical
advantages,it's a very strong instrument that keeps you
in that EU (maybe you can't leave at all).

And the German "approval" was made between politicians.As I said earlier,there was no prior referendum on this.In my opinion the lack of having a
referendum shows a lack of democracy.

So,as said before,the currency is only "the rear end" of
all this.Much more annoying are the political issues coming up with that "United Europe".

Since this discussion should focus on the focus aspect,I would only add to the political aspect:
When I see EU-politics,I feel like I'm in a movie,where the script has been written by George Orwell.
I am horrorfied by seeing how easy it is to push those
regulations through,even against the democratic interest of all European citizens.Once they started,it's not easy
to stop.

But I guess they don't deserve better,since there is little
opposition.


McD
  • #32
  • Dec 1, 2006 4:35am Dec 1, 2006 4:35am
  •  McD
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: -Pecunia non olet- | 24 Posts
Quoting dukeofdents

...
In order for the world to work well, nations must not lose their own rational action, that is, acting in their own self interest. That is what creates balance, equilibrium, and free markets.

National sovereignty was eroded by the Euro, but we still have GBP, CHF, etc., because those nations refused to give away their economic sovereignty. You will never see Pound Sterling go away, because it is a matter of national pride to the Brits and has been a standard currency for hundreds of years. It's a singular institution, like the greenback. God love 'em, I hope they never give it away...


Absolutely.
I would even go deeper into this by saying the individual
person would lose his freedom and would find himself
suddenly being a subject; all of his former civil rights
have considerably vanished.

And to come back to the economic and currency focus:

Please correct me if I'm wrong:
Has there ever been a Socialist (or if you like:levelling mania) approach that was economically successful over a
period of more than 1 generation ?

IMHO it does not work out since those systems live OFF
the next generation (those nowadays 5-year-olds are picked to pay the mounting debt).
But they are not able to do this and will refuse to do so
once they have the political majority. Simple as that.

At that point in time there should be "some" modification
to the currency overdue.

Excuse my ranting ...

McD
  • #33
  • Dec 1, 2006 9:03am Dec 1, 2006 9:03am
All I have to say about a unified Europe is
  • #34
  • Dec 1, 2006 9:19am Dec 1, 2006 9:19am
Lol I am Slovenian too... and I am sure that 32 tons of money from the EU won't affect so much..

the affect is because US has no good data at all.. no reasons for $ strength for now..

take care de123.. )
  • #35
  • Dec 1, 2006 10:12am Dec 1, 2006 10:12am
and all i have to say about

the usa is...

and the europe is.......
its just money
  • #36
  • Dec 1, 2006 7:24pm Dec 1, 2006 7:24pm
Hey, de123, if you really feel that way about America why don't you lead a program to challenge us economically? We may, in a few years, see Slovenia overtake the world as an industrial and technological innovator.

Otherwise, just be socialists and let the Russian mafia control you. It's better than the communists, right?

Over here, we're going to let Cuba lead North America into the next great economic boom. They have the same tools as Slovenia, so it should be a sure thing.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #37
  • Dec 1, 2006 7:27pm Dec 1, 2006 7:27pm
Better yet, challenge us militarily. It would be a lot quicker...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #38
  • Dec 1, 2006 8:18pm Dec 1, 2006 8:18pm
Forget the Euro, please rush me free of charge a good recipe for home made Potica

Lou

Quoting de123
Well my country will adopt the euro (is adopting),...the first and the only ex-comunist country from easteren europe that will adopt the euros starting the 1. january 2006. No matter what everybody says that consumer prices wont be effected,... they have already been raised, and will be further on (like in each euro country that has adopted the euro).

My thoughts...adopting the euro Have related costs,...not few even to the euro zone. So it should have some short bearish effect on overall inflation.

Why?....simply because it is not cheap (security,..banks, companies,...) they all will have extra costs...and what will that effect,...THE EURO currency.

My thoughts only and yours?
  • #39
  • Dec 1, 2006 9:26pm Dec 1, 2006 9:26pm
If we get a recipe, make sure it's Orehova Potica, I have some walnut trees on my property that I can put to good use. A good friend of mine is Croatian and his momma used to make this stuff, it's a holiday season treat!

I'm not as jingoistic as you think I am...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #40
  • Dec 1, 2006 10:45pm Dec 1, 2006 10:45pm
As a kid, I was the one who ground and re ground the walnuts to a very fine texture. But I did not watch the making and baking process enough to know how she did it. Seemed like magic, tasted even better.

There are a few bakerys on the 'Range' (Iron Range) in Minnesota who make this fabulous treat. (about 200 miles away) But of course none can do it with the love and care and taste that mom created.

As my signature says.....
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