MY Journal-phil13

Hi Sutiv

dbrown is correct about enconomic value in helping to read/guess what a move may be, the only times this is an exception is if it has already been priced in or there is manipulation/big players trading at that level.

here is a chart with what i hope is your answer on it, a picture tells a thousand words etc.......

a quick Silver M5 demo trade i just done for you to explain myself.

i forget the post number but someone made the same comment to fti on the taf thread and his reply was " tells you a lot about the market you are trading in, doesnt it?"

... or something along those lines

but the point is if it is not behaving in line with obvious fundamental factors it is either big hands in the market manipulating or news hasnt hit the air and something else is cooking behind the scenes... we can never know if we are correct (we arent trading in the big banks where they have a vast amount of info that we do not have the privelege of knowing until after the fact) but observing these things will give you a heads up on what your position response should be

example: as of right now the market is in disagreement whether the fed with drop rates 25bps or 50bps so thats why we are seeing impulses on the short charts in both directions. the strategy would have been to trade either directions at extremes at liquidity zones (like the bounce off the purple MA or the run of the previous highs and test of the 88 fib level that just happened ( all the gambers getting long and short before news)

ill leave you with a scenario... say the fed cut by 100bps out of nowhere (really unexpected news thats "bad" for the dollar) but price drops in gbpusd (BULLISH USD) which would be an unexpected move based on our expectation. say it stops and rests at one of the lower liquidity levels and you notice accumulation on 5 min. What just happened??? what should your response be??? What do you know about the market and its operators???

from fti --- " TS= Trapped shorts"

tried to get the 50 fib entry but was too slow. just squared at the top because we just made a new high for the year... and likely those wicks on top might be people squaring from the run up into the suckers. plus i have to be somewhere at in 30 mins. depending on what powell says I may look for buys at lower liquidity levels on h1.

like phil i am not trading much so just scouts to keep my chops up.

sutiserv... i hope this helps


edit: Theres the big drop i was expecting . every bar will add a new piece to the ever evolving puzzle

Perfect. So the scenerio we were discussing just occurred. price moved opposite mainstream expectation. Although, you can see from my post why I squared that this was a likely scenario. So what does that tell us looking forward??? the fed is still dovish with rates... if the US economy remains strong they'll likely do smaller rate cuts (but still dovish). so are the big boys gonna keep buying here at the top or look for lower prices or is this the beginning of a reversal? the next bull leg on H1 will tell us heaps

Hi dbrown,

great posts my friend, thank you for trying to help others on my thread.

i have traded a fair bit with you and we can both be on opposite sides on the same pair but we both still come out in profit, if people really think about that and how it is possible then they get a good undestanding of the money management part needed to survive in this game.

Phil.

No worries my friend. I didnt mean to interject but I too struggled with the "confidence" thing (i put it in quotes because there is always a degree of uncertainty. I wanted to share things that helped me

and yes most of the time bull or bear doesnt matter. It's the when and where you choose to trade and take profit. that was an eye opener for me
looks like i was correct but theres a big battle ahead. judging by that long wick on usdx h1 on bottom... we are turning.. wish i had been up early to catch the run on top of gbp usd.

cheers Phil

Phil,
Thanks so much. I have learnt a lot from the chart especially waiting for that break before deploying the scout. What condition(s) would you flip a trade?

Sutiv

Dbrown,
Thanks for your explanation, it is well appreciated.

Sutiv

Hi Sutiv

no problem I am happy to try to help as our friend FTI asked of us in return for his help.

So what you asking for is not a rigid if A does so and so, then attack with B, if C conditions are present, in practice the flip should be aggressive at least double the trade you just killed to flip it, this means you only have to gain 50% (pips) of the move you just killed to be at break even (recovery), for me you should only flip into the prevailing trends when counter trading the daily/hourly charts in M5, but all trades should not be considered for any type of recovery including the 'flip', the 'flip' trade is a very high risk way of doing a recovery, hence my own basic rule of the 'only time to flip is when trading against the 2 higher time frames' so that you become aligned with a much more favourable chance of it going your way, the flip is just part of the traders tools to understand, remember when we are put in these types of decisions your mind will be in 'fight or flight mode' making it harder to make a rational rather than emotional (chase the lose) decision, you can give yourself more time to think if you employ the 'stop the bleeding' tool first, there are no rules in money management other than 'protect your book' by any and all means possible (making money dance to your tune to be in alignment with the direction). Big moves on news, even ones out of the blue very often retrace at least 50%, everything I do and 'try' to calculate is on probabilities of an 'outcome' so honing your 'best guestimation' skills for me anyway are a must based on facts YOU/ME know about how and why the market moves the ways it does.

Phil.

Phil,
Thanks for your advice, flip should be considered when the probability of reversing is high on your side. Please can you suggest a good read on price market structure?

Sutiv

Hi Sutiv,

it is all in FTI's thread and i have made my humble attempt at explaining my learning curve in great detail here, FTI has suggested the books to read early on in the thread, most of what you need is actually within the first post for basic guidance on what are the must know topics. anyway here a head start on how i now view the chart from a market structure point, can you see the best suggested place to start scouting soon if the correct P/A appears and the liquidity levels it may use???

i answer and help as much as i can but i must respect fti's wishes and the emporer moth story when doing so. you should be aware of all the 'stories/tales' in fti's thread as they give us valuable lessons to help in trading an mindset training as well as a good knowledge of the AOW book/pdf that fti also posted, it is also here in my thread (in a few posts i think).

Phil.








from FTI....... 1st post


Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders.Who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc

If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.

Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg,
Linear Charts, HiLoClose Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractuals, ………..etc

Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.

What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.

"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the traders to do or die,
Hoping that the signal does not lie,

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."

Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.

The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.

How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.

Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.

I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.

What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.

I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.

regards

Phil,
Thanks for your time in sharing your knowledge the way you do, I equally understand the Moth story. As FTI said, whatever you think you know will be reflected in your account balance, he also said that we should not give up learning.
Going through your thread, I know you are a professional by the way you analyse price market structure. I duff my cap for you.

In the daily chart of GU posted where you marked (messy ew move), I have marked the first impulse with a yellow line, please what is wrong with the way I marked it?



Sutiv

Hi Sutiv

thank you for very kind comments, but I am just another person on this life long process of learning, I know I do not know or understand a lot still in the trading world and will quickly say if I am lacking in the way to answer anything posed to me, but as I said if my own journey can benefit anyone else then I am happy to share it with anyone who is genuinely looking to expand their own knowledge through sharing similar interests and not just looking for a quick short cut that does not exist for long term consistency.

I can also see you are well read in what our friend FTI has written and given us.

The question you now pose is a matter of perspective (and good question to ask), so I like to use EW+DOW+FIB's as I have shown but I also like to find the trapped traders and use the last unused previous top' and bottom on the higher frames, for me this is a good recipe/mix of things that help me, mentally I have deeply explored how our minds work (and still do) in an effort to attain more self control over my actions, anyway back to the topic as we all know a picture is worth a thousand words and to answer your question you are not wrong in how you marked the chart, as I say it is our own perspective that we are showing here and in everything we do, so what do you think of these charts below, you can see what 'perspective' I used to draw those line now and how many others there could be.

Phil.

Phil,
When I said you are a professional, I didn't mince words. You are also a great thinker. I asked the question to test my understanding of EW. You call it perspective, but I think it is beyond that.

This is my understanding which is the same as what you posted initially.
AB is the LH, and any other wave before the break is insignificant until PA breaks AB and makes a high. After the break, we have a series of trapped sellers before the new high C.

Sutiv

Hi Sutiv

what you say about the LH is correct (also as I see it), this part is never explained well anywhere that I read so far anyway, you are also a good thinker, I can see it in the questions posed, they look like one sentence simple questions but if you really read them (which most people do not or can not) they are good deep questioning of the how/why/status of some thing to gain another persons view on the subject, so onto the question the literature on EW out there all shows very similar to the picture in the link, then they attempt to describe it, what fti said about the goose never being given I believe applies here (and many other places), this guy sold books (to make money), then he released more books so it makes sense not to give away the goose, just a few tempting eggs, so we can and should assume the whole true picture/system/or whatever is, is never actually given (or he/she would not make money from any future books on the subject, as I have said words are a very personal thing to each of us and there are way of saying things that does not give away the goose without someone needing to read between the lines (often the most important parts are in what is not said outright), this brings us to the word fti kept on saying, the 'first impulse', so what is an impulse, from what I personally understand from fti is the first impulse wave should make a new high or low, it should be applied mainly to higher times as an indication of possible direction and to help find possible turning points so we do not take longs at possible tops or shorts at possible bottoms, it also gives us in combination with our 'mix' of other data factors that we use to find valuable areas of 'confluence' where good liquidity may exist for the big money to enter/exist the market. Once we see whatever we are looking for in the P/A that suggests big money is about to make or started to make a move, we can jump on their coat tails and catch the crumbs that drop from their table by using the lower time frames to get good entries and exist to use our money management in at the correct times.

Again here is the same chart marked with where I would consider an impulse wave start.

Phil.

like i said in the above chart 'now i am interested in H1'.

this is demo as not trading for reasons mentioned earlier but hopefully will show the/my process...



i will post m5 when it has shown of my process later...

i am finishing it here as i have shown you what i wanted to live again. its about patients in waitin for the market to come to you and do what you think it may do at a predeterined area of high interest that is marked out, i suspect this will fall further, but as i say it has served my purpose, so you either take all profit, leave some in and scale back in and out, completely re-scale in and out as the oppertunities present themselve or try to ride the higher frames as the P/A flows throught each time frame.

good luck and happy trading....

M5 for the details. i have just taken the 1-5 ew in this chart for demo.

and this is how you follow a move using DOW in M5..... which will often take you into H1.



you just have to keep your mind in check to be able to flow with the action.

Phil,
Thanks for your analysis and showing the way it is done. I was rigid in my thinking when I saw that H1 low, I was waiting for a lower low before I could be a seller (Change in trend (L & LL).

In the chart below, I saw the correction as abc. What is wrong with the way it is marked?

Regards,
Sutiv